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In some markets, it is more about getting it right than getting in at the right time. We've seen many carcasses of products that were ahead of their time, not b
by 11thEarlOfMar 10y ago
In some markets, it is more about getting it right than getting in at the right time. We've seen many carcasses of products that were ahead of their time, not because they were bad ideas but because they were not formulated for mass adoption. Apple's own Newton is one example. It took the iPhone formulation to make the product features successful in the market.
A more recent example is the telepresence robot. Many entries, but still more Newton than iPhone.
With Apple, it's easy to pick out their winners and losers: iPhone, iMac, MacBook, ... vs, Apple TV, Lisa, Newton, ....
At their current scale, Apple needs to enter really big markets in order to move the needle on sales and profits. There aren't many really big tech markets left. Cars are an interesting play in that it combines robotics and consumer tech, and puts them into a market that has room for multiple large players and plenty of opportunity for disruption. The transition to an electric drive train and autonomous navigation presents an entry point. There will be multiple winners.
- asimpletune 10y ago> There aren't many really big tech markets left Global GDB is estimated to be at around 80 trillion $.
- abritinthebay 10y agoAppleTV a loser? The only device significantly ahead of it in sales is the Roku (Amazon and Google's sticks are ~the same number of sales as Apple TV). But the market is pretty evenly split in sales and Apple still maintains one of the larger overall install bases for any of them (not the outsized winner it used to be there though of course). "Not being a de-facto monopoly" is hardly a loss.
- datguacdoh 10y agoArticles like http://www.recode.net/platform/amp/2016/6/10/11904942/google-chromecast-apple-tv-sales http://www.recode.net/platform/amp/2016/6/10/11904942/google... seem to point to Apple TV being easily outsold by Amazon and Google.
- old-gregg 10y agoDuring 2015-16 I was given 3 or 4 opportunities to get a free Chromecast, and I got one. It sits barely used now, in one of the rarely visited HDMI inputs on my TV. I wonder how many of those "sold" devices were actually given away and forgotten. Chromecast cannot possibly be considered usable by most because it follows a weirdo, google-style, controlled-by-the-browser (but only Chrome) model. It is the most absurd way to watch TV ever invented. I use it sometimes, sure, because it's the only Linux-friendly HDMI dongle (Chrome runs on Linux), but can't imagine anyone actually liking it. Apple TV, in comparison, is tightly integrated into every MacOS and iOS device, i.e. not only into the OS but often into the applications that run on them. And I don't remember anyone offering a free ATV to me... :)
- jorvi 10y agoInebriated on that Apple kool-aid I see. I think 90% of the stuff me and my friends play on the Chromecast is initiated by the Netflix or YouTube app, where all I have to do is tap a button. You know what else is great? If we're chilling with multiple people, I don't exclude 80% of them from controlling or playing anything by having an Apple TV. Fancy that, the Chromecast is actually a simpeler, more useable product than what Apple created.
- old-gregg 10y agoHold on, how do you let 80% of people to control Chromecast? If anything's it's not controllable by anyone by default because nobody happens to lug around a laptop with a pre-installed chrome extension. I haven't used Android for a while, but on my last Nexus phone Chromecast wasn't useful for anything other than Youtube.
- ghaff 10y agoFor things like Netflix or HBO, I just cast from the iPhone app.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- bsbechtel 10y agoDealing with Apple Store level service for a car that needs regular maintenance isn't going to fly. Imagine waiting 2+ hours for an oil change entry three months.
- tehwebguy 10y agoIs Apple Store service not the gold standard?
- megablast 10y agoIt is for electronic devices. Why someone would think they would do exactly the same model for a car division is very strange.
- APPLthrowaway99 10y agoTheir service may be good for hardware, but from personal experience it has been far from great if you're an app developer. We're in the top 100 grossing apps and can't even get a callback from them, let alone a point of contact if there are issues.
- uptown 10y agoSurely their vehicle would be electric. Likely some occasional maintenance but you wouldn't be getting your oil changed.
- wtvanhest 10y agoNot to mention that it would drive itself to the maintenance....
- APPLthrowaway99 10y agoDisclaimer: If it wasn't clear from the username, this is a throwaway. I don't want to endanger my business by associating my rant with my >7 year old HN account :-( There is a 0% chance that I would ever purchase a car from Apple with their self driving functionality in it. We recently had issues with a whole bunch of rejections of our app for reasons that are not clearly defined in their guidelines (allegedly they were "new terms" [not documented]... they pointed me to official documents that didn't match what they were telling me). The functionality that they were rejecting our app for initially wasn't new, followed by several rejections for functionality that had been in the app for nearly 2 1/2 years and had approved numerous times over that span. I've been waiting almost a month for a phone call that they promised me "within 3 business days" to discuss the App Review issues, and have yet to receive it. While I think that Apple creates some great hardware, and their end user support is likely better than their B2B support (which is IMHO atrocious, unless you're buying more hardware from them), there is no chance I would put my life in the hands of their product or expect them to provide me with safe travel.
- phodo 10y ago> "There aren't many really big tech markets left" I've heard this repeatedly over the years. There are ALWAYS new markets. You just have to look in the right places, or wait for new pareto frontiers to open up.
- bingomad123 10y agoSo true. There are always opportunities to create wealth because people never ever happy with what they have and someone else with free time can solve that problem. A company of Apple's size is well poised to make some real great strides in exceptional areas such as self driving cars.
- astrodust 10y agoImagine going back to the early 1980s and seeing people argue that the personal computer market was too crowded, and there was no way anyone was ever going to make any money in it. The whole thing had played out. Big companies owned the software market. Big companies owned the games. Big companies owned the peripherals. What could possibly be left? Wait, what's a laptop? What's a workgroup server? What's email? None of those things had really happened, they were all markets just over the horizon about to explode onto the scene.
- ghshephard 10y agoMy 12th grade computing science instructor (who was admittedly horrible) said that she didn't see much of a future programming computers, because pretty much all of the computer programs that were required had been created, and all that was left was to improve the speed, size of documents allowed, and maybe add a few extra features. This was in Spring, 1987.
- jomkr 10y agoMy father had a completely different experience. His ancient physics teacher said, "computers my boy...they are the future". This would have been some time in the 1970's. Of-course dad didn't listen and went on to have a unremarkable career as a Structural Engineer. A real shame as I'm sure he would have made an excellent programmer. I like to tease him over what-ifs - especially as he shares a birthday with Bill Gates.
- intrasight 10y ago"There aren't many really big tech markets left." You know of course that this statement has been uttered for a couple thousand years.
- gregpilling 10y agoEccl 1-9 "The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.”
- tempestn 10y agoEccl 1-9 "There aren't many really big tech markets left." - New Revised HN Translation, 2030
- weaksauce 10y agoto be fair, the apple tv remote is fantastic and it's better than any other remote i have used for the common features. (i do wish it had a tv power button though since it can actuate the volume but i guess they wanted to go with the standard that shuts down the tv when you shut off the apple tv if your tv supports it)
- MBCook 10y agoReally? The TiVo peanut is still the best I've used. The ability to scrub with the Apple remote is really nice and Siri can be useful but the shape is a disaster and I really miss physical buttons for moving around the interface.
- dsacco 10y agoI have both, and vastly prefer my AppleTV. Using voice or my iPhone keyboard to search is a game changing experience.
- peregrine 10y agoI've got just the apple support document for you! https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT205225 https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT205225 If your TV supports HDMI features you will only ever need one remote.
- MBCook 10y agoSadly there's no way to disable having it power the TV off without also disabling the ability to control the TVs volume.
- hyperpallium 10y ago> getting it right Self-driving. Apple Maps.
- jaredklewis 10y agoI think it's always good to include iTunes Ping in any list of bad apple products.
- driverdan 10y agoiTunes itself is a bad Apple product. Ping was just one bad part.
- millstone 10y agoIt's worth pointing out that the iTunes Music Store was revolutionary for its time. It was the first online music store that was legal, easy to use, and sold popular songs.
- visarga 10y agoThe store, yes, the app, no.
- selectodude 10y agoThe app was pretty good back then, too. It really only started crumbling under its own weight once the iPhone 3G came out.
- sjwright 10y agoSure, though that was a fairly low-grade failure. An inexpensive, unremarkable failure for both Apple and consumers.
- petra 10y ago>> big tech companies new really big markets to move the needle The problem is that most big markets are small at start. Aren't there models to enter many smaller markets , like a VC , but instead of just supplying capital, the big company will also supply some key tech/knowledge/resources advantages, maybe some that are specialty developed for startups , all for equity?
- charlesism 10y agoYour reasoning is excellent. The only problem is that Apple doesn't have sufficient drive, talent, or reputation, in the auto industry to actually make and sell a good car. No employee wants to leave Tesla to work at Apple. No consumer wants to buy a car made by Apple. Hopefully Tim and the gang won't blow through too much money before they accept that. They're pretty good at making phones and computers. They might want to focus on keeping that reputation in the meantime.
- pg314 10y ago> No consumer wants to buy a car made by Apple. Why not? Have you seen it?
- charlesism 10y agoI've seen the "Acer Ferrari One" laptop, and an Apple Car is the same kind of "wrong." I think Apple might have been able to sell a car if it had come to market five or six years ago. But these days, the world is so over-saturated with Apple (not that I mind, personally) that I don't think there'd be enough enthusiasm.
- jedberg 10y agoYour reasoning is excellent. The only problem is that Apple doesn't have sufficient drive, talent, or reputation, in the cell phone industry to actually make and sell a good cell phone. No employee wants to leave Motorola to work at Apple. No consumer wants to buy a phone made by Apple. Hopefully Steve and the gang won't blow through too much money before they accept that. They're pretty good at making computers. They might want to focus on keeping that reputation in the meantime.
- snovv_crash 10y agoYou're not holding it right, so you don't have signal vs. you're not sitting in it right, we're sorry everyone died. Phones are toys. Cars kill people and are highly regulated.
- georgespencer 10y ago> Apple TV Profitable and doing billions of dollars of revenue a quarter. Losers?
- the_duke 10y agoSource?
- georgespencer 10y agoProfitable = Apple wouldn't keep it around if it wasn't. Revenue = Asymco estimate. Apple lumps it into the "Other" category in its reporting. Horace estimated that it was doing $3bn of revenue a year in 2015. Maybe it's still just a $3bn a year business and not a $4bn a year business, but the point remains that calling it a "loser" is nuts.
- archvile 10y agoHey now, I LOVE my Apple TV's. They may not have the adoption or attach rate as other multimedia devices but they definitely fill a need for a certain group of people. Since I am all in on Apple they work perfect for me. I just wish they would market it a little better.