68 ms·

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including re

• sqeaky 10y ago
  An aluminum body is exactly the kind of iteration that was being talked about. It is neat, but its not and all new drive train on a totally different tech. Aluminium is a pretty well understood material, while self driving cars are virgin territory. Tesla is making larger swings and potentially accepting larger risk. Ford is... iterating.
  • foofoo55 10y ago
    I would much rather drive an iterated vehicle than one based on a large swing or risk.
    • beamatronic 10y ago
      But you can drive the latter in the car pool lane
      • Neliquat 10y ago
        You can drive anything in that lane with a passenger. Just sayin.
        • cr0sh 10y ago
          IIRC, here in sand-land (AZ) you can drive solo in our OHV lanes with a vehicle that has less than four wheels (mainly motorcycles - but if you have the cash for one of those nice 3-wheeled "cars", you're still good).
      • vkou 10y ago
        For now. Once enough EVs are on the road, it'll go back to being 2+ or 3+.
  • bluGill 10y ago
    What innovation is Tesla making? Electric cars are not new. In fact the first production car to reach 60mph back in the day was electric. Aluminum in a production car is a lot more innovative that an electric car. (li batteries in a production car though is innovative)
    • sqeaky 10y ago
      Electric cars aren't new... if you really want to compare modern vehicles to those it pile batteries. When the roadster came out there was nothing like it. Electric vehicles prior to the Telsas where research projects and low torque ultralight budget vehicles. Listing the differences between a Telsa and its closest successor, if you could pick one is not an easy task. Listing the difference between an F-150 and and F-150 with and aluminum was already done this sentence the hardest part was spelling aluminum. You can pick an threshold for choosing what is evolution and revolution, I am just trying to choose a reasonable one.
    • simplyluke 10y ago
      The dunning kruger effect is super prominent in the tech community's discussions of Tesla. Plenty of other manufactures are doing innovative things with automation, technology, etc. Not to mention most of them can build a higher quality interior/driver experience for far less than what Tesla wants for a Model S
      • aianus 10y ago
        It's 2017 and a $60,000 Audi still won't let you start it up remotely from your phone and run the heater/AC so it's comfortable by the time you leave your house. Seems like the most basic, obvious, easy to implement feature but they still can't manage it. Apparently because it's "illegal in Germany" to have a car running without an operator behind the wheel. What a joke. Tesla will wipe the floor with them.
        • zeveb 10y ago
          Why would I want to install an app from a carmaker on my phone, complete with privacy-invading spyware, when I could just use the keyfob to do it?
  • cr0sh 10y ago
    I wonder if Tesla is contemplating building and selling a half-ton pickup truck to compete against Ford's F-150 (and others)? That's what I'm kinda waiting for - I don't want a car; I like having a pickup. Ideally, it would be 4WD (and my next pickup will be - right now my off-road vehicle is an Isuzu VehiCROSS that I'm pouring money into). I would love it if my next pickup truck was a self-driving, off-road, 4WD electric beast. But I don't see that happening any time soon - at least not before I get to the point of replacing my current truck.
    • mohaine 10y ago
      According to the "Master Plan part 2", a "new type" of pickup is in the works. That is pretty much all that has been released at this point though.
• iamatworknow 10y ago
  >What is this based on? It's based on nothing other than the weird contempt you see for large, established corporations in the SV crowd. Big established corporation = big established rule book and management hierarchy = stifled innovation. Nevermind the fact that most of the major technological breakthroughs of the past 100 years were developed by the research wings of big corporations (Bell Labs, defense contractors).
  • MR4D 10y ago
    I'm not the parent poster, but I'd offer one reason why some people feel this way - Ford is a car company, while Tesla is a software company. Big difference in expectations, capital expenditures, etc. Based on committed capital, I think this is at least partially correct.
    • vkou 10y ago
      If Tesla is a 'software company', the last thing I'd ever want to do is buy a car from them. As anyone who has every used software will attest to: Most of the time, we can count our lucky stars if our commercial software 'works' for a year and a half. Cue all the: "If Microsoft/Apple/Google/Facebook/Snapchat made cars" jokes.
      • iamatworknow 10y ago
        Definitely agree with you there. We're already seeing some of the more unpleasant idiosyncrasies of the software world with Tesla. I, for one, kinda like driving a car that doesn't require an internet connection, doesn't have forced OTA updates, doesn't send analytics data back to base, and won't potentially be bricked if someday the manufacturer goes out of business. Other manufactuers are starting to do the same thing but I'm going to enjoy my "dumb car" for as long as it lasts. Hopefully when fully electric vehicles become more mainstream and affordable there will still be an option to get a "dumb" version.
      • cr0sh 10y ago
        I'm kinda with @iamatworknow on this, too (thus right there with ya too). I've contemplated the idea of my next pickup being a commercial vehicle, if I can get one (as a single unit and not a fleet sale) - which I probably won't be able to, but I can dream. It seems like that's the only way (except for going used) that I'm going to be able to get what I want: A standard-cab, short-bed pickup, ideally 4WD. I don't have kids, and won't have kids. I have no need for four doors and an extended cab. I don't need a long bed. I want a short wheelbase. So far, it's either buy a used pickup (back when they made and sold these kinds of trucks) or go with a commercial vehicle (where you can still sometimes find them - sometimes). The other perk about a commercial version is that they are stripped down to the bone. Nothing fancy in the cab, just the bare basics for a radio, cloth interior, non-electric controls for windows and seats. Basically, eliminate all the fru-fru stuff to make that much more reliable for work-based usage. In other words, I want a truck to be a truck - not some fancy "I only go to the mall to show off" substitute for a minivan. Add in some basic 4WD with manual hubs (again - nothing to break) - and there ya go. That's my dream truck (ok - if there were a Raptor version of it that'd be nice, too - but I can't afford that, so who really cares).
• youngtaff 10y ago
  Ford have also been quite innovative in the engine department building small volume turbo charged engines for greater efficiency and lower emissions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_EcoBoost_engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_EcoBoost_engine
  • jnicholasp 10y ago
    Being innovative at small details of existing concepts isn't likely to produce huge gains in stock value, as opposed to being innovative at entire categories of new industry- and infrastructure-disrupting products. Ford does the former, Tesla does the latter, and the market is valuing them accordingly. The market could be wrong, Tesla could fail to achieve their vision, Ford and other existing big companies could somehow turn themselves into organizations that aggressively pursue ambitious new visions.. but the market is betting not. You're welcome to make an opposing bet.
    • TFortunato 10y ago
      Maybe that's part of it. I'm sure another part of it is that Ford is already big enough, that there isn't a lot of growth potential there. That said, it's not like they are exactly just making small refinements to gasoline engines, while SV companies are the only real innovators, chasing electric and self-serving vehicles. We just tend not to talk about it as much on HN (compared to Tesla, for example): https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2017/01/03/ford-new-electric-cars/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2017/01/03/ford-new...
      • jnicholasp 10y ago
        Ford doesn't have much room to grow because they are a mature company in a mature field. Tesla is creating new fields. Ford doesn't know how to create new fields, therefore they're stuck making small improvements to existing things, and, once someone like Tesla makes it very clear that a new field exists and is viable, Ford will reluctantly follow the market trend. Ford does normal science [0], Tesla does revolutionary science [1]. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_science https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_science [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Structure_of_Scientific_Revolutions https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Structure_of_Scientific_...
• nwah1 10y ago
  Ford also signed a deal with Blackberry's automotive division and will be making their own software platform based on QNX. Sounds like they may be trying to compete with Android, Apple, and Tesla on the software side. And QNX has a good microkernel architecture for an automotive OS. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/11/03/why-blackberrys-software-deal-with-ford-is-promising/#587c42731343 https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/11/03/wh...
• seanmcdirmid 10y ago
  Market perception. Ford's P/E ratio is 9.89. IBM's P/E ratio is 14.02. Facebook's P/E ratio is 40.79. Tesla's P/E ratio is infinity since the E is negative. I'm sure Ford has done many incremental innovations, I didn't say they didn't. IBM does the same thing, and has "record profits" every few years also. Its just the market isn't expecting the next big thing to come from Ford, while they are expecting that from Tesla. If you think the market is wrong or too irrational, you can make a killing by shorting Tesla and buying cheap Ford stock.
  • pbtflakes 10y ago
    That's not how the math works out, according to Nasdaq.com Tesla's P/E was -53.63 for 2016 and estimated -103.48 for 2017.
    • seanmcdirmid 10y ago
      Sorry I guess. I couldn't find Tesla's P/E ratio on Google like I could for the other companies. It is my understanding that they don't report P/E ratios for companies with negative earnings. And it makes sense: a high P/E ratio indicates high potential. The lower the earnings, the higher the P/E ratio. But if earnings went negative, then the P/E ratio would automatically go negative (since that is how math works, as you say). So if my stock price is $100, and I earn $1, my P/E ratio is 100...so much potential! If I accidentally lost a dollar instead, my P/E ratio automatically becomes -100 even though not much changed in my earnings.
      • kbenson 10y ago
        The interesting thing is that as soon as you go negative, a larger negative P/E is better than a smaller negative P/E, and it's really wonky at earnings close to 0.
    • frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
      Those numbers are meaningless since Tesla has negative earnings. Infinity is basically right.
  • 10y ago
• kamaal 10y ago
  Sorry but this is like Nokia saying they are spending all this money to make their phones and manufacturing processes awesome, all the while when a iPhone is getting designed somewhere. Incremental changes is what most senior management folks at places like Ford can do because that is what they teach at MBA schools using linear growth graphs. Self driving tech is really novelty thing now. And nobody expects it to work anytime soon. The real deal now is mind-blowing battery tech. Batteries that are rugged, can charge quickly and a car that can give a big range on a charge. Meanwhile talking of how efficiently somebody can build an ICE based car is really like someone talking about how quickly they can produce horse carriages. Doesn't really matter because that disruption is happening else where.
  • dkrich 10y ago
    That all sounds good in theory, but where are the numbers to back it up? Apple was making billions in profit on the iPhone at launch. Tesla has never made a profit and sold 70k vehicles last year. Companies like Ford and GM have huge numbers of loyal customers and move millions of vehicles a year and quite profitably. So while it sounds great to pretend that the automobile industry is dying and Tesla is capturing their market share by sheer innovation, the numbers tell a different story.
• imgabe 10y ago
  Pretty much everyone who wants a Ford has one, or could buy one. There's not a lot of growth left for Ford. Their only hope is to steal a few customers from the other automakers, but those other automakers will steal a few back. It's unlikely that large numbers of people who don't currently own a Ford are going to buy one any time soon. Tesla on the other hand, has millions of potential customers who would and will buy one once they become a little more affordable and the charging infrastructure becomes more built out. We already saw how fast the pre-sales for the Model 3 went. And that was just people who were willing to put down money on a car that wasn't even available yet. It's not just about innovation or not. Tesla has a lot of room left to grow. Ford is about as big as it's ever going to get.
  • paulpauper 10y ago
    exactly. Ford is stagnant. Tesla has much more potential.
  • GVIrish 10y ago
    > Pretty much everyone who wants a Ford has one, or could buy one. Yeah but it's not like people buy one car, and never buy one again. Ford sells over 800,000 units of just the F150 every single year. Now it's true that they don't have as much potential for growth because they've reached a sort of stable place in the market. Maybe sales can grow a few percentage points year over year but Ford is unlikely to jump by 20% the way Tesla can. But that's not really saying much as Ford is a mature company with a complete lineup and Tesla is only on its 4th model of car.
  • emodendroket 10y ago
    Huh? Do you own a car?
  • dkrich 10y ago
    I don't understand this argument. Tesla is currently trading at a higher valuation than Ford. Ford has saturated the North American market. Tesla could eventually grow to saturate the North American market but is just a fledgling auto maker right now full of potential but not many sales. But they are already trading at a higher valuation than Ford. So unless you think that Tesla can command much higher margins than Ford does, then shouldn't Tesla only trade at a similar valuation when they are making similar amounts of cash?
• snambi 10y ago
  Does anyone pre-order a F150?
  • prklmn 10y ago
    Does it matter? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_automobiles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_automobil... Take a look at the USA on this chart.
    • snambi 10y ago
      True, but that is not the point. In terms of electric + self-driving technology, Tesla has a huge lead over every other auto player including Ford.
  • emodendroket 10y ago
    There's no need to because there are plenty. People did preorder the Focus RS.
    • snambi 10y ago
      Interesting. When did this happen? Was it discounted?
      • emodendroket 10y ago
        Not even a whole year ago, and, no, it wasn't discounted, it was marked up.
  • msisk6 10y ago
    Yes. Lots of private individuals as well as fleets will pre-order trucks to get the exact options they want.
    • snambi 10y ago
      Sounds like customization. Tesla pre-order is basically a queue for a future delivery, not about getting a specific feature.