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I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe t

I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. Maybe I am just too indifferent or chilled, but I think the best is to just sit back and watch what will happen. Also I seriously don't think of the Brexit that the UK leaves Europe. I think the UK and the EU will strive for the closest relationship possible. The only thing that I see changing is that the UK withdraws from a formal contract with the EU with the hope to negotiate a better deal. I don't think this is racist. Not every contract makes the same sense for every country in the world. --- EDIT: Wow lots of responses to this comment. Thank you all. There's a lot of good discussion and some suggest that I am more relaxed perhaps because I am maybe financially secure, but that is not true. When I was a child I watched on television the Fukushima disaster in Japan and I was totally freaked out. I was afraid for many reasons and then as I watched longer I was totally amazed how relaxed the people in Japan dealt with the situation. There was a crisis, but nowhere near what I thought would have happened in the western world. Nobody was running or fleeing the country, nobody stopped going to work, etc. People worked together to fix the problem as good as they could and everyone lifted their weight. All news in Europe were talking about how cool-headed the Japanese dealt with this situation and it was something which I never forgot in my life. I then realised that only because everyone stayed calm and cool headed they were able to deal with this problem the way they did. It was not perfect, but boy it was much better than what I thought would happen. So this is my childhood experience which has marked me for life and made me realise that mass hysteria is never good. No matter what the situation is.

skylan_q 10y ago
every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong Even though this is true, it goes over the "expert's" heads why there is a crisis of confidence in experts. http://www.sciencealert.com/stephen-hawking-says-we-re-in-the-middle-of-a-global-revolt-against-experts http://www.sciencealert.com/stephen-hawking-says-we-re-in-th...
JamesMcMinn 10y ago
You haven't been affected by the changes because nothing has happened yet. This is the start of the negotiations to decide what those changes will be. And when I say nothing has happened yet, I mean apart from the massive drop in the value of sterling and inflation massively outstripping wage increases. I assume you're based in London, which means you're fairly isolated from the social changes that have happened across the UK in recent years. London is very pro-EU and immigration friendly. The statistics do show a massive increase in race related hate crimes in the UK since the referendum, so even if the vote wasn't racist, it has given racists a confidence boost.
- coldtea 10y ago
  And I bet you nothing will happen in 2 or 3 or 5 years either. Except for the "massive drop in the value of sterling" which is due to market and media hysteria, which will correct itself.
  - Svip 10y ago
    If nothing happens, what was the point then?
    - coldtea 10y ago
      Then the point is you can make your own laws and not wait for some committee of 20+ countries and some Brussels bureaucrats to decide their "one size fits all solution", especially one designed to fit Germany better because it bullies and controls more lackey states' votes? Also note that by "nothing happens" I mean nothing that negative as the hysteria implies. Not that "nothing at all" happens.
      - mrcarrot 10y ago
        Can you point to any case where the UK could not make a law that it wanted to because of "having to wait for Brussels"?
        10y ago
topbanana 10y ago
I agree with your observations entirely. It seems the UK is gripped by mass hysteria. Close friends of mine appear to believe this is the end of the world. I'm looking forward to this all being behind us.
- gutnor 10y ago
  Just to put things on perspective. Most of HN people are developers, and the average salary for a developer (30K) is bigger than 70% of the population. A 50K salary is far from unusual (that under junior developer in a bank) and that better than 90% of the UK. I lived years on a 25K salary, which is better than 50% of the population and that's the kind of salary where it does not take much to put you in big trouble. Weathering the storm is a luxury for a lot of people. So I'm not saying that it is the end of the world. But look at Spain. If you look at the raw economic numbers, Spain has barely changed from before 2007, yet everybody I know (and that's a bunch of people) has been affected negatively. It does not take the end of the world to make big trouble for a lot of people.
matwood 10y ago
Doomsday predictions make headlines, and balanced responses do not. People like black and white even though most topics are nuanced.
Al-Khwarizmi 10y ago
Sure, what could possibly go wrong with a radical decision taken by a narrow majority, with a significant part of the voters that supported it having racist motivations (even if the concept of Brexit itself is not racist), others motivated by lies (millions to the NHS et al) and the vast majority of economists describing it as a shoot in the foot? I don't think it will be "doomsday" either, but I think believing that things won't go downwards is an exercise in self-fooling.
k-mcgrady 10y ago
>> I am an European living and working in the UK You are lucky then as you always have the choice to leave the UK and enjoy the protections of the EU. A lot of the coverage is focussed on trade/immigration etc. but there are lots of wonderful human rights protections and consumer protections that are provided by the EU which the British government will be excited to get rid of. It's that that worries me. Take the surveillance overreach for example. Thanks to it violating EU law there now has to be a rethink. Or the Human Rights Act that the tory's have wanted rid of since Cameron was in office - because they don't like some of the rights if guarantees. There are things more serious than the economy.
- Nursie 10y ago
  IIRC the human rights act and membership of the ECHR are separate to the EU. I agree, there's been some awful rhetoric out of the Tories about dismantling those, but as yet they aren't under threat AFAICT
  - kuschku 10y ago
    > IIRC the human rights act and membership of the ECHR are separate to the EU. Membership in the EU requires membership in the ECHR, that’s why Britain can only after Brexit go back to the human rights of the 1600s that the elected government wants.
    - Nursie 10y ago
      Indeed, EU membership was a lock on ECHR membership. But leaving the EU does noy (yet) mean leaving ECHR.
      - handelaar 10y ago
        Leaving the ECHR is however the stated policy of the current UK government, and leaving the EU will allow it to actually do so.
        10y ago
barrkel 10y ago
I'll say what I said before the referendum: the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost. Britain is trapped with a forked strategy: it can go the Singapore route or the supplicant route. The two are incompatible and neither of them is realistically feasible. The Singapore route is what hard Brexiteers want but there's no mandate for it, and nor is there plurality of votes in it. The supplicant route is what Brexiteers will attack, and there probably isn't a majority of votes in the Tory party for it. The UK's political landscape are in the wrong shape for the negotiation to come. Parties would need to be configured into those that are split according to negotiating strategy. Since they aren't, the fork will weaken Britain's negotiation throughout; every attempt to go down one road will face extreme resistance from those who prefer the other path. Britain is screwed, AFAICT. Myself, I'm aiming at November or so to get out.
- mdekkers 10y ago
  the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost. I don't understand why this wasn't a centerpiece of the Remain campaign.
  - taejo 10y ago
    Because it makes the EU look evil, and remaining looks like submitting to bullies.
    - barrkel 10y ago
      The EU is a protectionist island in a global economy filled with large ambivalent actors. It's less evil, more like self-preservation, or an immune system. There has to be surface tension to retain mass, and there has to be barriers because that's it's raison d'etre.
      - taejo 10y ago
        I understand the game theory, but I think politically, it would be easy to spin this as the EU being a bully who punishes you if you don't play with them, and many voters would prefer to tell such a bully to bugger off than to play along (indeed, a lot of the Leave campaign was already about how Brussels bullies Brits into doing things they don't want).
lhopki01 10y ago
What exactly would you expect to change when nothing has actually changed yet? What you're saying is as disingenuous as me saying that since all the horrible things people are afraid Trump didn't happy after the election before he came to power there was nothing to worry about.
- dustinmoris 10y ago
  > What exactly would you expect to change when nothing has actually changed yet? This is my view point: Reputable well known economists and analysts: "If the UK votes to leave then the UK will suffer great economic consequences. As soon as in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2016 the UK will see a recession which will continue into 2017, 2018, ..." A few months later the same people: "OK, 2016 was actually quite solid, but 2017 the shit will hit the fan" A few months later the same reputable people: "OK, it seems like we need to make some corrections to our prognosis. There will be no recession, not even in 2017, but the economy will definitely not grow as fast as it would otherwise." Me: "Why is still everyone hysteric. Seems like nobody knows what is really going on. Nothing bad happened yet. Let's chill and watch" People from before: "Of course nothing has happened yet!!! Why did you think something should have happened by now? Who did tell you that, ey?" Me: -.-
  - lhopki01 10y ago
    The Pounds fell as an immediate result. Since then the economy has been held up by very strong consumer spending which can only last so long in the face of rising prices and increased capital inflows taking advantage of the weaker pound. The decline is not going to be sudden it'll be a gradual thing as companies move staff out and new investment fails to happen. I'm guessing that your let's chill and watch comes from a secure position. There are people who 10% increases in prices makes a massive difference and they can't afford to just 'chill and watch.' This is going to have very big consequences.
    - stephen_g 10y ago
      The IMF said in 2015 that the pound was up to 20% overvalued though. I recall people talking about it being overvalued for many years before that - in fact, the pound being so highly valued (which was great for the financial industry but not that much else) probably led to a lot of the deindustrialisation over the last few decades which is probably where a lot of this really started. Anyway, the U.K. is a fairly large advanced economy, and as a bystander outside the U.K., US and Europe, I find it pretty far fetched that what you say will occur, and that the U.K. will have problems long term outside the EU. There might be some short term pain but it's probably for the best long term.
Nursie 10y ago
I couldn't agree more. We've seen months of hysterics in the press and all over social media. It's unwarranted but it seems stuck in some sort of feedback loop. I hope we'll get your ongoing rights in the UK sorted quickly. I'm fairly certain we will. Some stuff may be worse, some better. The hysteria is doing nobody any favours - I've friends in London who seem convinced we're on our way to ethnic cleansing and probably war. They're scared, over very little.
dmix 10y ago
The risks are really only economic. And those can be solved with trade pacts... without having to sacrifice any other independence such as with laws, courts, and borders. I'm from Canada and our economy (and defence) depends heavily on the US, we both strongly benefit from an economic relationship. It's mutually beneficial, as all pacts should be. Yet we don't have to worry about policy being dictated out of NAFTA or worry about the economy of Mexico - which is totally different than Canada - dragging down our own. Once you look beyond short term economic risks I really don't see thee problem. It seems to me that smaller countries have the healthiest democracies - one of the reason government functions so well in Scandinavia and here in Canada. The problems with US politics is largely the result of the disparate views of regional communities. Just look at the vast cultural/economic/educational gaps between California, the 'south', or the midwest. Those gaps are even greater across Europe, so I'm hardly surprised that various countries in the EU, not only people in the UK as we've seen recently, is feeling uncomfortable with the idea. You're just lucky you don't have the Euro to further lock you into the relationship. Edit: Also the idea the EU stops wars seems ridiculous to me in 2017 given we have NATO and the UN... and that the west only really cares about economics. Sanctions like that were done to Russia or Iran would not last long in a western country, they'd cave in so fast. Pretty much eliminating any risk of internal EU conflict without assuming total economic destruction.
- JamesMcMinn 10y ago
  The risks are most certainly not only economic. The EU influences almost every aspect of the UK in one way or another. Immigration and travel are both affected. The ability to travel and work in any country in the EU is a massive benefit which will likely be much more difficult. Visiting family in friends outside of the UK could become much more difficult. Our laws are affected - there will be nothing to stop the UK Government from bringing in even more draconian and invasive spying laws [1] or scrapping the Human Rights Act as they have desired to do for so long. The wonderful thing about the EU is that it has for the most part done nothing but protect people, and I worry what will happen when we leave. [1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snoopers-charter-eu-court-ruling-illegal-investigatory-powers-act-emails-david-davis-a7488041.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snoopers-chart...
gpvos 10y ago
The EU has been giving favours to the UK for decades. A better deal is not possible; the best next thing would be something like Norway, but since the UK doesn't want free movement, that is also out.
mattmanser 10y ago
It doesn't help the EU is acting like a petulant wronged partner. We didn't even cheat on you! I mean, seriously, £68 billion for stuff we're not going to be able to use? Grow up and rework your budget. No trade negotiations until we leave? It makes them look like utter fools, one dose of actual democracy deciding they've had enough of backdoor federalisation and they're threatening every punishment they can think of. I know others now express regret at voting leave, but I now start to have the opposite, I voted remain and the way Junker et al. are acting is a stark reminder at how undemocratic, bureaucratic and unrepresentative of its citizens the EU is.
- JamesMcMinn 10y ago
  > No trade negotiations until we leave? No trade negotiations until we official notify the EU that we are leaving, which makes nothing but sense from the EUs perspective.
  - pbhjpbhj 10y ago
    Agreed, why would they spend money on trade negotiations when we might have an outbreak of common sense and decide to stay.
- chimprich 10y ago
  Petulant? It is your comment that seems quite emotional; "Grow up", "utter fools", etc. It is entirely rational for the EU to try to get the best possible deal they can.
  - mattmanser 10y ago
    How is it emotional to simply describe how people are acting? I don't understand your comment's relevancy? How would you describe the EU's actions right now? Rather than firing Junker and reforming, they're going to try and punish the UK to try and frighten their own citizens into staying EU members. That's not rational or a considered response, that's an emotional one at odds with what is best for all of Europe's citizens.
Beltiras 10y ago
The worst effects will be felt when the UK is booted from the EU single market. UK trade policy has been based around being an entry point of products from elsewhere into the EU. When that goes poof, a whole lot of trade will go directly from the world to the EU countries and those areas will do their very best to make free trade agreements with the EU. The UK will simply lose out. That's the jackhammer awaiting the UK.
gizmo 10y ago
The UK economy will not collapse because of this, but it will cost them billions in the short term and a few basis points of yearly GDP growth for the next decade, and that really adds up. What's even worse is that the UK leaving the EU can destabilize the Euro, which is already on a knife's edge. If the Euro collapses we'll get a worldwide recession, with a staggering human cost. It's too easy to dismiss concerns as doomsaying. We know from history that civilization doesn't progress in a linear manner. It's entirely possible for societies to make mistakes that take a century to recovery from, and the EU and the US are not invulnerable.
- stephen_g 10y ago
  The late economist Wynne Godley explained why the Euro couldn't work in the long run and described how it would cause problems like Greece back in 1992 [1]. There is simply no way a supra-national currency could work without a federal budget. It's probably time to accept that the Euro will likely fail no matter what we do. Sadly, the people of Greece have already paid a terrible cost... 1. https://www.lrb.co.uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that https://www.lrb.co.uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-al...
  - gizmo 10y ago
    I'm familiar with his work. Many economists gave similar warnings. The Euro was a poorly conceived idea, no doubt. That is a sunk cost, though. The question is how to best go forward from here. Even if a Euro breakup is inevitable (it isn't; it can muddle along indefinitely if all countries adhere to a gold-standard-like fiscal policy) then a carefully premeditated breakup 8 years from now is much better than taking out the support beams now and watch it all fall apart. The Eurozone hasn't even recovered from the 2008 crisis. The banks haven't been reformed, unemployment is still high, millennials are still struggling financially. Even if the countries agreed the Euro has to break up (and they don't) it would still take years of negotiations for a plan to materialize. There is nothing that can be done short term that wouldn't be a total disaster. So kicking the can down the road is likely the best option.
  - gpderetta 10y ago
dev_head_up 10y ago
Similar to yourself, I'm an EU citizen living in the UK. The sheer hysteria from certain quarters is getting a bit much and my social media use has definitely changed in the past few months (not going on it as much due to the sheer bile on display). As to work and the economy, I guess we'll see. My company is expanding at a good rate, and if worst came to worst then I could up sticks and bring my family home. This isn't the end of history. It's one country leaving a political block, one that has it's pros and many cons. The majority decided they want out. That's the way it is.
peferron 10y ago
> Also I seriously don't think of the Brexit that the UK leaves Europe. What do you mean by "Europe" here? I guess you don't mean the Union nor the geographical continent (since the UK is obviously leaving one and staying in the other), so you must mean something else, but I'm not sure what.
- gonvaled 10y ago
  I guess he means Europe the collection of states which is in the geographical continent. Which the UK is also obviously not leaving. And which is totally uninteresting since a "collection of countries" do not have a common interest, nor a common policy, nor a common market, nor a common anything. The "Countries of the European Continent" have exactly the same international clout that any random group of world countries: without structures, without organization, without agreements, a bunch is just a bunch.
rbehrends 10y ago
It is almost certain that the British economy will not collapse. That said, it is also virtually certain that there will be at least a loss of economic growth, possibly a recession. The worst prediction I've seen by reputable economists (though that was before it became clear that May was going to push for a hard Brexit) was a loss of 9% of GDP growth by 2030. The bigger problem is that Britain is already facing significant structural challenges that are going to be compounded by Brexit. Too much of the economy is centered in the area around London [1], leaving the rest of the country relatively poor, and British productivity has consistently been low [2], compared to the US, Germany, and France. As Piketty discussed [3] (I'm greatly simplifying his more detailed analysis here), this leads to Americans working a lot and earning a lot, France and Germany trading income for more free time, and Brits working like Americans to have the economic per capita output of France and Germany. This is not a good situation to be in to face additional economic challenges. This does not mean that the economy will implode (which would be rather unlikely), but it does create unnecessary stress. [1] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/GDP_at_regional_level http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/... [2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/bulletins/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfinalestimates/2014 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity... [3] http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/01/09/of-productivity-in-france-and-in-germany/ http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/01/09/of-productivity-in...
- JPKab 10y ago
  Is it possible that some of the areas outside of London may benefit by having more competitive trade pacts with individual nations outside of the EU? One note on productivity in UK: My observation of UK business culture can be summed up as low-energy and stagnant, and that's compared to US business culture, which I don't like. An example of this is how low developer salaries are in the UK compared to other nations, relative to managers and bosses. I was blown away by how overpaid the managers are in the UK, and how underpaid the "doers" are. My company's UK office reflects this. They are a notably low-energy group compared to our other offices. There are bright lights who seem to be cowed into submission by a cultural norm of never showing excitement or passion in the workplace. I'm sure there are benefits to removing emotion from interactions to an extent, but wow does that feel suffocating.
pluma 10y ago
> Also I seriously don't think of the Brexit that the UK leaves Europe. I think the UK and the EU will strive for the closest relationship possible. The only thing that I see changing is that the UK withdraws from a formal contract with the EU with the hope to negotiate a better deal. It's against the EU's best interests to give the UK a good deal in Article 50 negotiations. This has been said over and over again and the arguments are still just as valid as they were right after the vote: giving the UK a good deal sets a precedent. Likewise it was obvious that the UK would trigger Article 50 and wouldn't hold another referendum because it would have been against their best interests to do anything else. Cameron played an international game of chicken, risking the UK's special privileges in the EU and the 51% called his bluff. Not following through would have meant losing the only trump card the UK had available in EU negotiations: threatening to leave if the UK can't have it "their way". It's basically a scenario of Mutually Assured Destruction but the UK actually pulled the trigger. The UK had no other choice than to follow through and file for Article 50. The EU has no other choice than to give the UK the worst deal both sides can agree on. The incentives are simply stacked against a mutually beneficial agreement because either side backing off would lose their face. Of course there are still open questions: will the UK accept a shoddy deal or just let the negotiations default to a complete exit, will Scotland force a Scottish referendum (and what happens if Britain tries to prevent it, what happens if the referendum succeeds, will the EU accept an independent Scotland back into the EU or will they punish it to appease EU members fearing similar fragmentation), will UK-based international companies pivot to adjust to the new situation or will they relocate to stay in the EU, etc etc. These are all detailed questions with answers that are very difficult to predict. But the two predictions that have been evident from the start are: 1. Brexit will happen and 2. it's in the EU's best interests to make the experience as unpleasant as possible.
- cryptonector 10y ago
  It's in the interest of some member states to give the UK a better deal than the deal that is in the interest of the EU. Whether this nets out to EU offering something less bad that the worst possible remains to be seen.
XJOKOLAT 10y ago
My wages, the value of my home, are now worth 20% less. If you're ok with that, good for you. I'm not. My access to the EU faces being curtailed (not just travel inconvenience, but the permanent movement of my family). If you're ok with that, good for you. I'm not. I could go on. You say: "maybe I'm just chilled". How about, maybe you're forgetting to put yourself in other peoples shoes, or grasping why it matters to them. If you're ok with that, good for you. I'm not.
- nul_byte 10y ago
  The value of your home is 20% less if you want to sell it in a foreign currency.
  - XJOKOLAT 10y ago
    Who would sell their home in a foreign currency? You're stating weirdly (imo, wrongly) You would sell your home in sterling. Sterling has been devalued. If you then wanted to act internationally, you would be curtailed to the tune of 20% Might not matter to you, but matters to me. I'm partially hedged but the vast asset base of the UK, and the salaries of all its workers, has been devalued by this move. And don't get me wrong, economics is the least of my concerns.

skylan_q 10y ago

every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong Even though this is true, it goes over the "expert's" heads why there is a crisis of confidence in experts. http://www.sciencealert.com/stephen-hawking-says-we-re-in-the-middle-of-a-global-revolt-against-experts http://www.sciencealert.com/stephen-hawking-says-we-re-in-th...

JamesMcMinn 10y ago

You haven't been affected by the changes because nothing has happened yet. This is the start of the negotiations to decide what those changes will be. And when I say nothing has happened yet, I mean apart from the massive drop in the value of sterling and inflation massively outstripping wage increases. I assume you're based in London, which means you're fairly isolated from the social changes that have happened across the UK in recent years. London is very pro-EU and immigration friendly. The statistics do show a massive increase in race related hate crimes in the UK since the referendum, so even if the vote wasn't racist, it has given racists a confidence boost.

coldtea 10y ago
And I bet you nothing will happen in 2 or 3 or 5 years either. Except for the "massive drop in the value of sterling" which is due to market and media hysteria, which will correct itself.
- Svip 10y ago
  If nothing happens, what was the point then?
  - coldtea 10y ago
    Then the point is you can make your own laws and not wait for some committee of 20+ countries and some Brussels bureaucrats to decide their "one size fits all solution", especially one designed to fit Germany better because it bullies and controls more lackey states' votes? Also note that by "nothing happens" I mean nothing that negative as the hysteria implies. Not that "nothing at all" happens.
    - mrcarrot 10y ago
      Can you point to any case where the UK could not make a law that it wanted to because of "having to wait for Brussels"?
      - 10y ago

topbanana 10y ago

I agree with your observations entirely. It seems the UK is gripped by mass hysteria. Close friends of mine appear to believe this is the end of the world. I'm looking forward to this all being behind us.

gutnor 10y ago
Just to put things on perspective. Most of HN people are developers, and the average salary for a developer (30K) is bigger than 70% of the population. A 50K salary is far from unusual (that under junior developer in a bank) and that better than 90% of the UK. I lived years on a 25K salary, which is better than 50% of the population and that's the kind of salary where it does not take much to put you in big trouble. Weathering the storm is a luxury for a lot of people. So I'm not saying that it is the end of the world. But look at Spain. If you look at the raw economic numbers, Spain has barely changed from before 2007, yet everybody I know (and that's a bunch of people) has been affected negatively. It does not take the end of the world to make big trouble for a lot of people.

matwood 10y ago

Doomsday predictions make headlines, and balanced responses do not. People like black and white even though most topics are nuanced.

Al-Khwarizmi 10y ago

Sure, what could possibly go wrong with a radical decision taken by a narrow majority, with a significant part of the voters that supported it having racist motivations (even if the concept of Brexit itself is not racist), others motivated by lies (millions to the NHS et al) and the vast majority of economists describing it as a shoot in the foot? I don't think it will be "doomsday" either, but I think believing that things won't go downwards is an exercise in self-fooling.

k-mcgrady 10y ago

>> I am an European living and working in the UK You are lucky then as you always have the choice to leave the UK and enjoy the protections of the EU. A lot of the coverage is focussed on trade/immigration etc. but there are lots of wonderful human rights protections and consumer protections that are provided by the EU which the British government will be excited to get rid of. It's that that worries me. Take the surveillance overreach for example. Thanks to it violating EU law there now has to be a rethink. Or the Human Rights Act that the tory's have wanted rid of since Cameron was in office - because they don't like some of the rights if guarantees. There are things more serious than the economy.

Nursie 10y ago
IIRC the human rights act and membership of the ECHR are separate to the EU. I agree, there's been some awful rhetoric out of the Tories about dismantling those, but as yet they aren't under threat AFAICT
- kuschku 10y ago
  > IIRC the human rights act and membership of the ECHR are separate to the EU. Membership in the EU requires membership in the ECHR, that’s why Britain can only after Brexit go back to the human rights of the 1600s that the elected government wants.
  - Nursie 10y ago
    Indeed, EU membership was a lock on ECHR membership. But leaving the EU does noy (yet) mean leaving ECHR.
    - handelaar 10y ago
      Leaving the ECHR is however the stated policy of the current UK government, and leaving the EU will allow it to actually do so.
      - 10y ago

barrkel 10y ago

I'll say what I said before the referendum: the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost. Britain is trapped with a forked strategy: it can go the Singapore route or the supplicant route. The two are incompatible and neither of them is realistically feasible. The Singapore route is what hard Brexiteers want but there's no mandate for it, and nor is there plurality of votes in it. The supplicant route is what Brexiteers will attack, and there probably isn't a majority of votes in the Tory party for it. The UK's political landscape are in the wrong shape for the negotiation to come. Parties would need to be configured into those that are split according to negotiating strategy. Since they aren't, the fork will weaken Britain's negotiation throughout; every attempt to go down one road will face extreme resistance from those who prefer the other path. Britain is screwed, AFAICT. Myself, I'm aiming at November or so to get out.

mdekkers 10y ago
the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost. I don't understand why this wasn't a centerpiece of the Remain campaign.
- taejo 10y ago
  Because it makes the EU look evil, and remaining looks like submitting to bullies.
  - barrkel 10y ago
    The EU is a protectionist island in a global economy filled with large ambivalent actors. It's less evil, more like self-preservation, or an immune system. There has to be surface tension to retain mass, and there has to be barriers because that's it's raison d'etre.
    - taejo 10y ago
      I understand the game theory, but I think politically, it would be easy to spin this as the EU being a bully who punishes you if you don't play with them, and many voters would prefer to tell such a bully to bugger off than to play along (indeed, a lot of the Leave campaign was already about how Brussels bullies Brits into doing things they don't want).

lhopki01 10y ago

What exactly would you expect to change when nothing has actually changed yet? What you're saying is as disingenuous as me saying that since all the horrible things people are afraid Trump didn't happy after the election before he came to power there was nothing to worry about.

dustinmoris 10y ago
> What exactly would you expect to change when nothing has actually changed yet? This is my view point: Reputable well known economists and analysts: "If the UK votes to leave then the UK will suffer great economic consequences. As soon as in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2016 the UK will see a recession which will continue into 2017, 2018, ..." A few months later the same people: "OK, 2016 was actually quite solid, but 2017 the shit will hit the fan" A few months later the same reputable people: "OK, it seems like we need to make some corrections to our prognosis. There will be no recession, not even in 2017, but the economy will definitely not grow as fast as it would otherwise." Me: "Why is still everyone hysteric. Seems like nobody knows what is really going on. Nothing bad happened yet. Let's chill and watch" People from before: "Of course nothing has happened yet!!! Why did you think something should have happened by now? Who did tell you that, ey?" Me: -.-
- lhopki01 10y ago
  The Pounds fell as an immediate result. Since then the economy has been held up by very strong consumer spending which can only last so long in the face of rising prices and increased capital inflows taking advantage of the weaker pound. The decline is not going to be sudden it'll be a gradual thing as companies move staff out and new investment fails to happen. I'm guessing that your let's chill and watch comes from a secure position. There are people who 10% increases in prices makes a massive difference and they can't afford to just 'chill and watch.' This is going to have very big consequences.
  - stephen_g 10y ago
    The IMF said in 2015 that the pound was up to 20% overvalued though. I recall people talking about it being overvalued for many years before that - in fact, the pound being so highly valued (which was great for the financial industry but not that much else) probably led to a lot of the deindustrialisation over the last few decades which is probably where a lot of this really started. Anyway, the U.K. is a fairly large advanced economy, and as a bystander outside the U.K., US and Europe, I find it pretty far fetched that what you say will occur, and that the U.K. will have problems long term outside the EU. There might be some short term pain but it's probably for the best long term.

Nursie 10y ago

I couldn't agree more. We've seen months of hysterics in the press and all over social media. It's unwarranted but it seems stuck in some sort of feedback loop. I hope we'll get your ongoing rights in the UK sorted quickly. I'm fairly certain we will. Some stuff may be worse, some better. The hysteria is doing nobody any favours - I've friends in London who seem convinced we're on our way to ethnic cleansing and probably war. They're scared, over very little.

dmix 10y ago

The risks are really only economic. And those can be solved with trade pacts... without having to sacrifice any other independence such as with laws, courts, and borders. I'm from Canada and our economy (and defence) depends heavily on the US, we both strongly benefit from an economic relationship. It's mutually beneficial, as all pacts should be. Yet we don't have to worry about policy being dictated out of NAFTA or worry about the economy of Mexico - which is totally different than Canada - dragging down our own. Once you look beyond short term economic risks I really don't see thee problem. It seems to me that smaller countries have the healthiest democracies - one of the reason government functions so well in Scandinavia and here in Canada. The problems with US politics is largely the result of the disparate views of regional communities. Just look at the vast cultural/economic/educational gaps between California, the 'south', or the midwest. Those gaps are even greater across Europe, so I'm hardly surprised that various countries in the EU, not only people in the UK as we've seen recently, is feeling uncomfortable with the idea. You're just lucky you don't have the Euro to further lock you into the relationship. Edit: Also the idea the EU stops wars seems ridiculous to me in 2017 given we have NATO and the UN... and that the west only really cares about economics. Sanctions like that were done to Russia or Iran would not last long in a western country, they'd cave in so fast. Pretty much eliminating any risk of internal EU conflict without assuming total economic destruction.

JamesMcMinn 10y ago
The risks are most certainly not only economic. The EU influences almost every aspect of the UK in one way or another. Immigration and travel are both affected. The ability to travel and work in any country in the EU is a massive benefit which will likely be much more difficult. Visiting family in friends outside of the UK could become much more difficult. Our laws are affected - there will be nothing to stop the UK Government from bringing in even more draconian and invasive spying laws [1] or scrapping the Human Rights Act as they have desired to do for so long. The wonderful thing about the EU is that it has for the most part done nothing but protect people, and I worry what will happen when we leave. [1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snoopers-charter-eu-court-ruling-illegal-investigatory-powers-act-emails-david-davis-a7488041.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snoopers-chart...

gpvos 10y ago

The EU has been giving favours to the UK for decades. A better deal is not possible; the best next thing would be something like Norway, but since the UK doesn't want free movement, that is also out.

mattmanser 10y ago

It doesn't help the EU is acting like a petulant wronged partner. We didn't even cheat on you! I mean, seriously, £68 billion for stuff we're not going to be able to use? Grow up and rework your budget. No trade negotiations until we leave? It makes them look like utter fools, one dose of actual democracy deciding they've had enough of backdoor federalisation and they're threatening every punishment they can think of. I know others now express regret at voting leave, but I now start to have the opposite, I voted remain and the way Junker et al. are acting is a stark reminder at how undemocratic, bureaucratic and unrepresentative of its citizens the EU is.

JamesMcMinn 10y ago
> No trade negotiations until we leave? No trade negotiations until we official notify the EU that we are leaving, which makes nothing but sense from the EUs perspective.
- pbhjpbhj 10y ago
  Agreed, why would they spend money on trade negotiations when we might have an outbreak of common sense and decide to stay.
chimprich 10y ago
Petulant? It is your comment that seems quite emotional; "Grow up", "utter fools", etc. It is entirely rational for the EU to try to get the best possible deal they can.
- mattmanser 10y ago
  How is it emotional to simply describe how people are acting? I don't understand your comment's relevancy? How would you describe the EU's actions right now? Rather than firing Junker and reforming, they're going to try and punish the UK to try and frighten their own citizens into staying EU members. That's not rational or a considered response, that's an emotional one at odds with what is best for all of Europe's citizens.

Beltiras 10y ago

The worst effects will be felt when the UK is booted from the EU single market. UK trade policy has been based around being an entry point of products from elsewhere into the EU. When that goes poof, a whole lot of trade will go directly from the world to the EU countries and those areas will do their very best to make free trade agreements with the EU. The UK will simply lose out. That's the jackhammer awaiting the UK.

gizmo 10y ago

The UK economy will not collapse because of this, but it will cost them billions in the short term and a few basis points of yearly GDP growth for the next decade, and that really adds up. What's even worse is that the UK leaving the EU can destabilize the Euro, which is already on a knife's edge. If the Euro collapses we'll get a worldwide recession, with a staggering human cost. It's too easy to dismiss concerns as doomsaying. We know from history that civilization doesn't progress in a linear manner. It's entirely possible for societies to make mistakes that take a century to recovery from, and the EU and the US are not invulnerable.

stephen_g 10y ago
The late economist Wynne Godley explained why the Euro couldn't work in the long run and described how it would cause problems like Greece back in 1992 [1]. There is simply no way a supra-national currency could work without a federal budget. It's probably time to accept that the Euro will likely fail no matter what we do. Sadly, the people of Greece have already paid a terrible cost... 1. https://www.lrb.co.uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that https://www.lrb.co.uk/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-al...
- gizmo 10y ago
  I'm familiar with his work. Many economists gave similar warnings. The Euro was a poorly conceived idea, no doubt. That is a sunk cost, though. The question is how to best go forward from here. Even if a Euro breakup is inevitable (it isn't; it can muddle along indefinitely if all countries adhere to a gold-standard-like fiscal policy) then a carefully premeditated breakup 8 years from now is much better than taking out the support beams now and watch it all fall apart. The Eurozone hasn't even recovered from the 2008 crisis. The banks haven't been reformed, unemployment is still high, millennials are still struggling financially. Even if the countries agreed the Euro has to break up (and they don't) it would still take years of negotiations for a plan to materialize. There is nothing that can be done short term that wouldn't be a total disaster. So kicking the can down the road is likely the best option.
- gpderetta 10y ago

dev_head_up 10y ago

Similar to yourself, I'm an EU citizen living in the UK. The sheer hysteria from certain quarters is getting a bit much and my social media use has definitely changed in the past few months (not going on it as much due to the sheer bile on display). As to work and the economy, I guess we'll see. My company is expanding at a good rate, and if worst came to worst then I could up sticks and bring my family home. This isn't the end of history. It's one country leaving a political block, one that has it's pros and many cons. The majority decided they want out. That's the way it is.

peferron 10y ago

> Also I seriously don't think of the Brexit that the UK leaves Europe. What do you mean by "Europe" here? I guess you don't mean the Union nor the geographical continent (since the UK is obviously leaving one and staying in the other), so you must mean something else, but I'm not sure what.

gonvaled 10y ago
I guess he means Europe the collection of states which is in the geographical continent. Which the UK is also obviously not leaving. And which is totally uninteresting since a "collection of countries" do not have a common interest, nor a common policy, nor a common market, nor a common anything. The "Countries of the European Continent" have exactly the same international clout that any random group of world countries: without structures, without organization, without agreements, a bunch is just a bunch.

rbehrends 10y ago

It is almost certain that the British economy will not collapse. That said, it is also virtually certain that there will be at least a loss of economic growth, possibly a recession. The worst prediction I've seen by reputable economists (though that was before it became clear that May was going to push for a hard Brexit) was a loss of 9% of GDP growth by 2030. The bigger problem is that Britain is already facing significant structural challenges that are going to be compounded by Brexit. Too much of the economy is centered in the area around London [1], leaving the rest of the country relatively poor, and British productivity has consistently been low [2], compared to the US, Germany, and France. As Piketty discussed [3] (I'm greatly simplifying his more detailed analysis here), this leads to Americans working a lot and earning a lot, France and Germany trading income for more free time, and Brits working like Americans to have the economic per capita output of France and Germany. This is not a good situation to be in to face additional economic challenges. This does not mean that the economy will implode (which would be rather unlikely), but it does create unnecessary stress. [1] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/GDP_at_regional_level http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/... [2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/bulletins/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfinalestimates/2014 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity... [3] http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/01/09/of-productivity-in-france-and-in-germany/ http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/01/09/of-productivity-in...

JPKab 10y ago
Is it possible that some of the areas outside of London may benefit by having more competitive trade pacts with individual nations outside of the EU? One note on productivity in UK: My observation of UK business culture can be summed up as low-energy and stagnant, and that's compared to US business culture, which I don't like. An example of this is how low developer salaries are in the UK compared to other nations, relative to managers and bosses. I was blown away by how overpaid the managers are in the UK, and how underpaid the "doers" are. My company's UK office reflects this. They are a notably low-energy group compared to our other offices. There are bright lights who seem to be cowed into submission by a cultural norm of never showing excitement or passion in the workplace. I'm sure there are benefits to removing emotion from interactions to an extent, but wow does that feel suffocating.

pluma 10y ago

> Also I seriously don't think of the Brexit that the UK leaves Europe. I think the UK and the EU will strive for the closest relationship possible. The only thing that I see changing is that the UK withdraws from a formal contract with the EU with the hope to negotiate a better deal. It's against the EU's best interests to give the UK a good deal in Article 50 negotiations. This has been said over and over again and the arguments are still just as valid as they were right after the vote: giving the UK a good deal sets a precedent. Likewise it was obvious that the UK would trigger Article 50 and wouldn't hold another referendum because it would have been against their best interests to do anything else. Cameron played an international game of chicken, risking the UK's special privileges in the EU and the 51% called his bluff. Not following through would have meant losing the only trump card the UK had available in EU negotiations: threatening to leave if the UK can't have it "their way". It's basically a scenario of Mutually Assured Destruction but the UK actually pulled the trigger. The UK had no other choice than to follow through and file for Article 50. The EU has no other choice than to give the UK the worst deal both sides can agree on. The incentives are simply stacked against a mutually beneficial agreement because either side backing off would lose their face. Of course there are still open questions: will the UK accept a shoddy deal or just let the negotiations default to a complete exit, will Scotland force a Scottish referendum (and what happens if Britain tries to prevent it, what happens if the referendum succeeds, will the EU accept an independent Scotland back into the EU or will they punish it to appease EU members fearing similar fragmentation), will UK-based international companies pivot to adjust to the new situation or will they relocate to stay in the EU, etc etc. These are all detailed questions with answers that are very difficult to predict. But the two predictions that have been evident from the start are: 1. Brexit will happen and 2. it's in the EU's best interests to make the experience as unpleasant as possible.

cryptonector 10y ago
It's in the interest of some member states to give the UK a better deal than the deal that is in the interest of the EU. Whether this nets out to EU offering something less bad that the worst possible remains to be seen.

XJOKOLAT 10y ago

My wages, the value of my home, are now worth 20% less. If you're ok with that, good for you. I'm not. My access to the EU faces being curtailed (not just travel inconvenience, but the permanent movement of my family). If you're ok with that, good for you. I'm not. I could go on. You say: "maybe I'm just chilled". How about, maybe you're forgetting to put yourself in other peoples shoes, or grasping why it matters to them. If you're ok with that, good for you. I'm not.

nul_byte 10y ago
The value of your home is 20% less if you want to sell it in a foreign currency.
- XJOKOLAT 10y ago
  Who would sell their home in a foreign currency? You're stating weirdly (imo, wrongly) You would sell your home in sterling. Sterling has been devalued. If you then wanted to act internationally, you would be curtailed to the tune of 20% Might not matter to you, but matters to me. I'm partially hedged but the vast asset base of the UK, and the salaries of all its workers, has been devalued by this move. And don't get me wrong, economics is the least of my concerns.