4 ms·

I think you are forgetting a big one. Microsoft. If they were to suddenly go legs up today that would have unimagionable consequences. The size of their offeri

by nso 10y ago

I think you are forgetting a big one. Microsoft. If they were to suddenly go legs up today that would have unimagionable consequences. The size of their offerings and the amount of companies using their stack is breathtaking. Sure, except for their online services the stack would still be there, but the prospects of no more security updates would cause real problems and a slow but steady meltdown. There would be scrambling like we have never seen before in the IT world. So much scrambling.

ergothus 10y ago
...I don't live in the MS stack, so I'm unclear on why MS leaving would be so irreplaceable. Shake up to businesses that rely on Windows? Sure, but honestly I don't have troubles imagining another vendor (Apple or a *nix vendor or one of the OSes that are known and beloved to only a few) stepping in - after all, there's nothing special Windows offers. Frankly, I think this would be good - businesses have long lagged behind in be able to change because they are hampered by locked-in software limitations. My current office uses Google Docs and Gmail, and I was amazed by how little that causes problems. If MS were to vanish, I foresee a period of panic and pain...but more panic than pain, and of limited duration. In particular, assuming Windows didn't vanish, everyone would have time to deal with it. Lack up feature updates, lack of keeping up with standards, lack of security updates...MS has shown in the past that these can be survived, and while recent MS behavior has been better, I don't see "unimaginable consequences". Heck, there are still people running IE6! (very few, relatively, but 0.25% market share is still a lot of people!) Then again, I've often noticed that being in or out of the MS stack is a bubble, and the other side sees things very differently, so I could definitely be wrong here. The only reason Amazon vanishing would be significant is because there's not really a competitor in the whole of their space. online booksellers aren't doing online non-book goods delivery aren't doing cloud services aren't doing grocery delivery, etc. Each of those services would be easily replaced, but not by a single company.
- ChrisBland 10y ago
  You should count yourself as lucky for not having to work in either public sector, higher ed or just plain old companies. ActiveDirectory + Windows servers disappearing overnight would pretty much send us back to the 1980s with how prevalent it is.
  - ergothus 10y ago
    But the implication of the above comment was not that the programs would disappear, just the company. (I mean, any online authorizations would die, but I didn't think that was part of daily routines, just installations. Though I really know nothing of MS business-type servers (SQLServer etc)) ...and I'm desperately trying to hold in comments about the small difference in performance between 1980s and MS software - I honestly blame Outlook for how the world killed email as an effective medium. Though I do count myself lucky to have my current job. I've worked public sector in the past, and recently started up a 2nd (part time) job at a university that involves using Outlook. It is quite painful.
    - snowwindwaves 10y ago
      count yourself lucky, you could be using lotus notes
  - guptaneil 10y ago
    Highly prevalent != irreplaceable (though it might be a prerequisite). The fact that so many businesses/sectors use MS technology is what makes them one of the "Big 4." However, there is nothing irreplaceable about those technologies. Another vendor/technology could replace them if those businesses were forced to change due to MS disappearing.
- nommm-nommm 10y ago
  >I'm unclear on why MS leaving would be so irreplaceable. Government! Government and enterprise! Neither would function without MS!! Windows/Active Directory, Windows Server, MS SQL server, SharePoint, and Office all make the world go round in the public and private sectors. You'd have to entirely replace pretty much all corporate infrastructure.
  - infinite8s 10y ago
    It's not like everyone's deployments will just stop working if MS goes bellyup.
    - gfo 10y ago
      True, but given that they're moving towards 'Windows as a Service' it's not hard to imagine that happening someday. Except for the Server OS. That's already built to be pretty standalone (aside from updates and collaborating with other Windows Servers). The idea here is that future security vulnerabilities aren't being patched which means it'd be open season for hackers once new vulns are discovered.
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
  - ergothus 10y ago
    Sure! But not all at once (we're imagining the company goes away, not that existing software disappears, per above comments), and you didn't dispute that the products are replaceable, you just stated that they are in a LOT of use. Coke and Pepsi together represent a huge share of the soft drinks people drink. If those two flavors, or even the two companies, disappeared, it would have a notable impact in that a lot of people would find new drinks (plus the significant impact to the supply chains, distributors, etc). But there are absolutely competitors to fill in the gaps. There ARE other soft drinks. And if none of the existing brands are up to the challenge, in the absence of a huge established market presence, we can easily imagine new companies stepping up. Just because MS products have a huge presence in the market doesn't mean MS products are irreplaceable.
- greenhatman 10y ago
  There are many companies built on a .NET stack. They will all have a terrible time if Microsoft vanishes. Most will probably vanish with Microsoft.
  - ripdog 10y ago
    With any sense, those companies would band together and invest in expanding .NET core into doing what they need.
    - aanm1988 10y ago
      These companies have no interest in getting into that business. That's why they pay microsoft large sums of money to do it for them.
      - ripdog 10y ago
        Yeah, but we're talking about a doomsday scenario when Microsoft disappears overnight. They'd rather invest in a new .NET than have to rewrite their entire stack.
      - Apocryphon 10y ago
        Depends on if Xamarin emerges from the ashes or if they disappear along with the rest of Microsoft.
danmaz74 10y ago
I'm almost linux-only, but I have to agree on that. Microsoft offerings look to me much more difficult to replace than Amazon's.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
Apocryphon 10y ago
Do LinkedIn and Skype also disappear? Nokia? Mojang?

by nso 10y ago

ergothus 10y ago

...I don't live in the MS stack, so I'm unclear on why MS leaving would be so irreplaceable. Shake up to businesses that rely on Windows? Sure, but honestly I don't have troubles imagining another vendor (Apple or a *nix vendor or one of the OSes that are known and beloved to only a few) stepping in - after all, there's nothing special Windows offers. Frankly, I think this would be good - businesses have long lagged behind in be able to change because they are hampered by locked-in software limitations. My current office uses Google Docs and Gmail, and I was amazed by how little that causes problems. If MS were to vanish, I foresee a period of panic and pain...but more panic than pain, and of limited duration. In particular, assuming Windows didn't vanish, everyone would have time to deal with it. Lack up feature updates, lack of keeping up with standards, lack of security updates...MS has shown in the past that these can be survived, and while recent MS behavior has been better, I don't see "unimaginable consequences". Heck, there are still people running IE6! (very few, relatively, but 0.25% market share is still a lot of people!) Then again, I've often noticed that being in or out of the MS stack is a bubble, and the other side sees things very differently, so I could definitely be wrong here. The only reason Amazon vanishing would be significant is because there's not really a competitor in the whole of their space. online booksellers aren't doing online non-book goods delivery aren't doing cloud services aren't doing grocery delivery, etc. Each of those services would be easily replaced, but not by a single company.

ChrisBland 10y ago
You should count yourself as lucky for not having to work in either public sector, higher ed or just plain old companies. ActiveDirectory + Windows servers disappearing overnight would pretty much send us back to the 1980s with how prevalent it is.
- ergothus 10y ago
  But the implication of the above comment was not that the programs would disappear, just the company. (I mean, any online authorizations would die, but I didn't think that was part of daily routines, just installations. Though I really know nothing of MS business-type servers (SQLServer etc)) ...and I'm desperately trying to hold in comments about the small difference in performance between 1980s and MS software - I honestly blame Outlook for how the world killed email as an effective medium. Though I do count myself lucky to have my current job. I've worked public sector in the past, and recently started up a 2nd (part time) job at a university that involves using Outlook. It is quite painful.
  - snowwindwaves 10y ago
    count yourself lucky, you could be using lotus notes
- guptaneil 10y ago
  Highly prevalent != irreplaceable (though it might be a prerequisite). The fact that so many businesses/sectors use MS technology is what makes them one of the "Big 4." However, there is nothing irreplaceable about those technologies. Another vendor/technology could replace them if those businesses were forced to change due to MS disappearing.
nommm-nommm 10y ago
>I'm unclear on why MS leaving would be so irreplaceable. Government! Government and enterprise! Neither would function without MS!! Windows/Active Directory, Windows Server, MS SQL server, SharePoint, and Office all make the world go round in the public and private sectors. You'd have to entirely replace pretty much all corporate infrastructure.
- infinite8s 10y ago
  It's not like everyone's deployments will just stop working if MS goes bellyup.
  - gfo 10y ago
    True, but given that they're moving towards 'Windows as a Service' it's not hard to imagine that happening someday. Except for the Server OS. That's already built to be pretty standalone (aside from updates and collaborating with other Windows Servers). The idea here is that future security vulnerabilities aren't being patched which means it'd be open season for hackers once new vulns are discovered.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
- ergothus 10y ago
  Sure! But not all at once (we're imagining the company goes away, not that existing software disappears, per above comments), and you didn't dispute that the products are replaceable, you just stated that they are in a LOT of use. Coke and Pepsi together represent a huge share of the soft drinks people drink. If those two flavors, or even the two companies, disappeared, it would have a notable impact in that a lot of people would find new drinks (plus the significant impact to the supply chains, distributors, etc). But there are absolutely competitors to fill in the gaps. There ARE other soft drinks. And if none of the existing brands are up to the challenge, in the absence of a huge established market presence, we can easily imagine new companies stepping up. Just because MS products have a huge presence in the market doesn't mean MS products are irreplaceable.
greenhatman 10y ago
There are many companies built on a .NET stack. They will all have a terrible time if Microsoft vanishes. Most will probably vanish with Microsoft.
- ripdog 10y ago
  With any sense, those companies would band together and invest in expanding .NET core into doing what they need.
  - aanm1988 10y ago
    These companies have no interest in getting into that business. That's why they pay microsoft large sums of money to do it for them.
    - ripdog 10y ago
      Yeah, but we're talking about a doomsday scenario when Microsoft disappears overnight. They'd rather invest in a new .NET than have to rewrite their entire stack.
    - Apocryphon 10y ago
      Depends on if Xamarin emerges from the ashes or if they disappear along with the rest of Microsoft.

danmaz74 10y ago

I'm almost linux-only, but I have to agree on that. Microsoft offerings look to me much more difficult to replace than Amazon's.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

Apocryphon 10y ago

Do LinkedIn and Skype also disappear? Nokia? Mojang?