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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

246 points by ruairidhwm 10y ago

grabcocque 10y ago
Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.
- tomtoise 10y ago
  Ah yes, like the 'current polling' at the time suggested the UK would definitely remain in the EU, or that President Clinton was a surefire thing.
  - hackerboos 10y ago
    They underestimated the No vote last time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#Results https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scotti...
  - arethuza 10y ago
    The "Project Fear" approach was used successfully in the 2014 referendum and then failed in 2016 because very smart political strategists such as Dominic Cummings worked out how to counter it. Given that the approach used to achieve the Brexit vote has been documented in great detail I wonder how we'll see them applied in this new referendum?
    - TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
      The approach used to achieve the Brexit vote was to lie about everything and to write off rational reality-based objections as "Project Fear." Unfortunately in international politics, winning a vote at home doesn't translate to a winning move internationally. The huge disconnect between how Brexiters think the world works and how the world really works isn't subject to a popular vote or to media spin. It is going to cause the UK - well, England - catastrophic problems over the coming decade.
- kozhevnikov 10y ago
  Wasn't that the plan for Brexit referendum, to shut UKIP up? That turned out well.
  - billpg 10y ago
    Like they ever would have gone away even if the vote was over 60% to remain. They'd have demanded a second referendum (and 3rd and 4th and 5th...) until they got the result they wanted.
    - arethuza 10y ago
      As Farage said: "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."
      - BEEdwards 10y ago
        It was around 52-48 and they have declared it finished business... Anyone with objections to a slim majority making such a sweeping decision is met with, "leave one, get over it."
- m0nty 10y ago
  I had expected them to wait until 2019 given that's the probable date for the next general election. I think they might be timing this to coincide with Article 70 notification this week. Apart from people's fears about what that will mean, there's a chance of adverse reactions from the markets and business which might focus Scots' minds on what could happen. They're definitely not bluffing. Clue's in the name.
  - deleted 10y ago
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  - achanda358 10y ago
    I think you mean Article 50
    - m0nty 10y ago
      Yes, probably 2020 on the election too, but there was some talk of a referendum in 2019. Will not edit ... Article 50 possibly as early as tomorrow.
- Arnt 10y ago
  You may be right, but keep in mind that the SNP managed to take 58 out of 59 possible seats in a recent election. Calling the bluff of someone who can campaign to a result as good as that... hm...
  - pjc50 10y ago
    Yes, although that's entirely a result of FPTP in a non-proportional system.
    - Arnt 10y ago
      FPTP plays a role, but "entirely"? Winning 40+% per cent of the vote isn't easy in the first place, and directing the campaigning effort well enough to win 58 out of 59 single-seat districts is a rare feat.
- vidarh 10y ago
  Maybe they are bluffing in the sense that their request will almost certainly be denied at this point, and it may very well be they are banking on that. I certainly think there is a sense that to get a poll on a timeline they want, they need to start pushing now, because they know they can expect resistance.
  - arethuza 10y ago
    "their request will almost certainly be denied at this point" I can't imagine anything that would increase support for independence more than any hint that we wouldn't be allowed to have another referendum. [OK - apart from BoJo being PM].
    - vidarh 10y ago
      Possibly. And maybe I'm overstating the chance they'll be refused because of course Theresa May will be aware of that. At the same time I expect the Tories to be ultra-sensitive to the reality of the Brexit vote, where people were also quite certain Remain had it in the bag for very long. At the same time, note Nicola Sturgeon's statements about how this isn't up to Westminster. Legally, of course, it currently is. But she's setting Theresa May up to use a refusal as a "look how undemocratic Westminster is" if it's refused. Look for attempts to bypass Westminster if it's slapped down - which may be serious, or may also be designed out of expectation they'll cause unfavourable reaction to another Westminster slap-down. Their massive majority of Scottish MPs also mean they will be able to paint any Westminster refusal as England dictating Scottish issues. It's very much a lose-lose for Theresa May in any case. If a vote is accepted, then it will be a constant distraction during the Brexit negotiations, for example, where any whiff of results negative to Scotland will be exploited for what it's worth...
- pjc50 10y ago
  This is no bluff, this is a real action. If you want a poker metaphor, this is a raise. If anyone's bluffing in this environment, it has to be Theresa May; the Brexit plan is far less coherent than the plan for an independent Scotland, it's not clear what cards she might hold that have any value, and her ministers are briefing against her in the Times.
- matthewmacleod 10y ago
  (Note that this isn't just an SNP move – it's the policy of the Scottish Greens as well as other civic groups) The outcome of the vote could fall either way, but it's certainly not a bluff. Current support for independence is Scotland is around 45-50%; there was a clear indication in the current government's manifesto that a referendum would be held if the UK exited the EU.
johansch 10y ago
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/ https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-show... "Why have the polls not shown a shift towards Scottish independence?"
- hackerboos 10y ago
  Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-independence-why-second-vote-back-on-table-nicola-sturgeon https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...
  - danielsamuels 10y ago
    I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an Scotland's approval rating of the deal.
    - hackerboos 10y ago
      You're right. Calling a second referendum is the best way to apply pressure on the UK government. If the terms are unfavourable to Scotland, they will likely leave the union.
    - Symbiote 10y ago
      It looks like that's pretty much the intention: > Speaking at her official Bute House residence in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said the people of Scotland must be offered a choice between a "hard Brexit" and becoming an independent country. Autumn 2018 - Spring 2019 also fits the two year negotiation timeline. 🇪🇺
  - pjc50 10y ago
    Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was. I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend all their time trying to avoid letting Jeremy Corbyn say anything on the subject.
byefruit 10y ago
What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.
- m0nty 10y ago
  Could be worse than that, at least from the viewpoint of the Conservative and Unionist Party, to give them their full (and oft-forgot) name: > "For the first time in my life, the prospect of a united Ireland is not only credible but inevitable" http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/northern-ireland-stormont-crisis-sinn-fein-dup-united-ireland-credible-inevitable-a7615756.html http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/northern-ireland-stormon...
  - richardwhiuk 10y ago
    Unionist means union between Northern Ireland and England, not a united Ireland - the term for that is Republican.
    - m0nty 10y ago
      Yes, that's what I meant. It's coded into their DNA (and their name) to not want the union to disintegrate.
    - miceeatnicerice 10y ago
      That might have been m0nty's exact point
- pjc50 10y ago
  The Union has long operated as internal colonialism; this is just the next step in de-colonising the system. It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.
  - 10y ago
Y_Y 10y ago
Self-determination and post-colonialism only seem to apply away from home. Madrid has a big influence on this because of Catalonia and Basque country, but there are tons of non-self-governing territories[0] which are swept under the rug, or clung to with claws of "economic uncertainty". It's funny that Scotland lost its (semi-)independence by trying their own hand at colonialism[1]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_list_of_Non-Self-Governing_Territories#List_not_complete https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_list_of_Non-Sel... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme
bussie 10y ago
There's no guarantee that Scotland will be allowed into the EEA or EU as an independent nation. In fact, some member states are opposed to it.
- s_dev 10y ago
  Thats not true. Scotland would have to apply but Brexit negotiators said the application could even be fast tracked and wouldn't be a big problem for Scotland to rejoin. >Jacqueline Minor, the European commission’s head of representation in the UK, said Scotland would need to formally apply after leaving the UK, although it could be fast-tracked because it already complies with EU rules and regulations. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/independent-scotland-would-have-to-apply-for-eu-membership https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/independent... Spain are concerned that it might a set a precedent for Catalonia to get independence but if the Scottish independence came about because of the UK leaving the EU Spain will be conformable in allowing Scotland to join.
- iMark 10y ago
  There is, however, a guarantee that a non-independent Scotland will be part of neither as a result of Brexit. There's no small irony to the fact that scaremongering around Europe was such a big focus of the Better Together campaign in the run up to the first referendum.
- nailer 10y ago
  > In fact, some member states are opposed to it. Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the others.
  - rkachowski 10y ago
    The classic example is usually presented as Spain, due to fears of setting a precedent that the Basque Country and Catalan could follow to remove themselves from Spain.
  - iMark 10y ago
    Spain has previously come out strongly against an independent Scotland joining the EU, largely because of the issue of Catalonian independence.
deleted 10y ago
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planetjones 10y ago
The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currency will be a central issue (if anybody other than the SNP can be bothered to campaign - the Westminster Government will have their hands full with brexit negotiations, so I doubt Scotland's independence will be top of their agenda)
- aetherson 10y ago
  While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.
  - RobertoG 10y ago
    "currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control" And that's the key thing. They would be changing masters, probably for the worst. As a former Euro supporter and now Euro sceptic I would recommend them to keep their lead in their own hand.
    - aetherson 10y ago
      But that doesn't seem to be what they want. I agree about being skeptical of being a small, relatively powerless country in a currency union with a much larger economy, but that's the case for them regardless of whether they're on the Pound Sterling or the Euro.
      - RobertoG 10y ago
        That's my point. They can't do nothing about being a small country. Their best option is have their own currency.
dijit 10y ago
I am Scottish from birth- I spent nearly my entire life living in the middle of England. The English are very angry about this and are touting Sturgeon as a crying "remoaner". They believe that they had a referrendum recently and therefore it's just "keep trying until you get the result you wanted". If you're a person with that in mind I have a few things to say: 1) the UK being a member of the EU was something sorely needed, but people consider it a trade union deal and not anything else. Therefore they use the argument that the EU has changed enough to warrant leaving. 2) Scotland largely voted remain last time because it was immediately evident that the EU would not allow Scotland to join- since Spain and the remaining UK was in strong favour of vetoing entry. This has fundamentally changed. 3) Now Scotland will not remain in the EU despite voting overwhelmingly to remain. Leaving the EU now would be the antithesis of "the will of the people".. so you can't say that "they voted, get over it". I'm rather sour on the whole experience regarding Brexit, there has been a _lot_ of smug mudslinging from the leave side, and they've already tried to scapegoat the remain campaign as being "not with the program" and subsequently sabotaging the leave campaign.
- thenomad 10y ago
  Also worth noting that a major point of the anti-independence campaign last time was that Scotland would get to stay in the EU if they stayed part of the UK. That has obviously changed somewhat.
a_name 10y ago
However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial
- pjc50 10y ago
  > racist SNP Unsubstantiated smear.
- matthewmacleod 10y ago
  Hello, please remain respectful. It's fine to disagree with the the SNP's policies, but calling them 'racist' is clearly outside the bounds of reason. To answer your specific point, my understanding is that general noise from Spain is that a Scottish application for EU membership would not be vetoed.
  - zigzigzag 10y ago
    It isn't 'racism' technically, you're right. Perhaps more like a mild form of bigotry. You might strongly disagree, but the SNP routinely phrases independence like this: Scotland will be "fairer" if it is independent i.e. the English who keep outvoting us are nasty and "unfair" by nature. There are lots of quotes from people like Salmond and Sturgeon along those lines. What they mean is "we disagree with the dominant political viewpoint in England" but what they say is that the English are morally defective and the Scots, morally superior. That's merely irritating when it's a left wing/right wing party political campaign, as people can change their political party quite easily. When it's phrased in terms of ethnic origin, that crosses the line.
    - matthewmacleod 10y ago
      I'm baffled by what form you think a separatist political argument could possibly take, in that case.
ruairidhwm 10y ago
I'm extremely excited for it. There's a huge amount of division in UK politics, and in Scottish politics. I suspect that there will be the arguments about currency and EU membership which the UK government will lobby to make life difficult for Scotland, but as the pound is doing poorly and we're leaving the EU anyway, there isn't much to lose.
andy_ppp 10y ago
Can London please also seek independence and stop sending huge sums of money to the rest of the UK. I'd even be happy with the Euro or our own currency The London Pound. We might need to ask Donald Trump about building a wall though... You might not even have to charge people who lived in London income tax, for example, due to the large number of companies based here. ;-)
Someone1234 10y ago
Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/paranoid/racist English-Welsh alliance then they're better off leaving and trying to gain EU membership. My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?) EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years. So I definitely think the Scottish leadership needs to better plan out EU entry relative to the last referendum. With or without Scotland, England is a sinking ship, better that other countries don't tie themselves to her mask as she flounders.
- ruairidhwm 10y ago
  Disclaimer: I'm Scottish Really appreciate the well-wishing on it. I would love for there to still be a very open relationship between the two countries. We've got plenty of space up here and a booming tech scene! Agreed on clarification with the EU membership but I think this is something that the SNP have been working on and that we can expect to see follow-up announcements. Interesting times!
  - pm90 10y ago
    Interesting to see what might happen post Brexit if Scotland does become Independent and stays in the EU. London has been a great place for International companies to set up shop to access the EU market and labor force...I wonder if they will simply relocate to Scotland? England only business matters could also be handled from within Scotland itself.
    - ruairidhwm 10y ago
      It'd be very easy to set up parallel legal structures in Scotland and then just transfer the business up. You possibly wouldn't even need to relocate.
neverminder 10y ago
I see this as a lose-lose scenario. If Scotland votes to split - it is effectively the end of UK as we've come to know it for a very long time. Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do better than the smaller ones. If they vote to remain that will be bad as well, because it will embolden the politicians (tories in this specific case) that they can get away with anything (breaking up the country with their disastrous Brexit in this particular case). I am a european living in UK.
- legulere 10y ago
  The lose scenario of a split already happened with the Brexit. Now it is time to save as much as possible. Scotland wants to stay in the EU and has interests diverging from England and Wales. Why should Scotland stay with them to make them stronger?
- diakritikal 10y ago
  > Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do better than the smaller ones. This is demonstrably false: roughly half of the top ten countries ranked by standard of living and quality of life are small European nations about the same size as Scotland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Dev...
  - ghaff 10y ago
    There's a much better argument for it historically because being a small country tended to end up getting you invaded or otherwise subservient to one or the other of your bigger neighbors. But that really an issue with most European countries today. Larger/richer countries still tend to have more control over their own destinies but that doesn't necessarily translate to quality of living standards.
  - jonathansizz 10y ago
    I think neverminder meant that, amongst countries that separate, the larger of the new countries will generally be better off than their smaller neighbour. Your list doesn't address this point. Examples would include Pakistan-Bangladesh; Czech Republic-Slovakia; and Sudan-South Sudan.
sarreph 10y ago
If you continue to give a misinformed, divided public chances at irreversible, macro decisions, then they will eventually vote in favour. This is why these kinds of decisions are not plebiscites!
alkonaut 10y ago
I thought the threat of Scotland leaving was what was going to sway the Brexit vote to a clear No. I hope everyone who voted leave understood that it was the dissolution of the union they voted for, and not some backtracking into a pre-EU britain.
- aembleton 10y ago
  The referendum was not binding. The decision to leave the EU was taken by MPs.
gozur88 10y ago
What do these kinds of referendums mean? This is just three years after the last "once in a generation" referendum. Let's say it goes independence. Will supporters be okay with another referendum three years later that might reverse that decision? It all smacks of opportunism and reminds me of all the other EU-related votes that keep happening until voters pick the right answer.
- restalis 10y ago
  It seems that the state affairs have the means to be more agile nowadays. It's a good thing that switches can happen more than once in a generation.
mcbruiser1 10y ago
how is voting to remain in the EU a vote for "independence"? seems like exactly the opposite of independence.
- 6Typos 10y ago
  Scottish independence from UK
tzs 10y ago
Suppose Scotland does vote to separate from the UK, presumably with the intention of attempting to gain EU membership. My understanding, based on a whole minute or two of Googling, is that the relationship between the parts of the UK, such as Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland is similar to the relationship between the states in the United States: if you are a citizen of the union, you are automatically a citizen of whichever part you live in. I wonder, then, if between the time of the vote and the time that independence actually happens if Scottish independence would trigger a lot of movement (1) to England of Scots who do not want independence from the UK or who do not want to try to join the EU, and (2) to Scotland of English who want a shot at staying in the EU?
- Symbiote 10y ago
  Citizenship isn't clear at all. There's no clear concept of English, Welsh, Scottish or Northern Irish citizenship -- we are British citizens, and European Union citizens. During the previous independence vote in Scotland, the people who voted were British, Commonwealth and EU citizens resident in Scotland. Around 800,000 people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK. Millions more presumably have a parent born in Scotland, but weren't themselves. I was born in England. I emigrated from the UK in 2015, and briefly considered registering as resident in Scotland (rather than England) just before I left, on the off-chance that Brexit went ahead without Scotland. However, the likelihood seemed remote, so I didn't consider it seriously.
ed_blackburn 10y ago
I wonder if this will effect the UN Security Council membership? The dissolution of the UK and it's nuclear naval bases based in an EU country which is anti-nuclear weapons.

246 points by ruairidhwm 10y ago

grabcocque 10y ago

Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.

tomtoise 10y ago
Ah yes, like the 'current polling' at the time suggested the UK would definitely remain in the EU, or that President Clinton was a surefire thing.
- hackerboos 10y ago
  They underestimated the No vote last time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#Results https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scotti...
- arethuza 10y ago
  The "Project Fear" approach was used successfully in the 2014 referendum and then failed in 2016 because very smart political strategists such as Dominic Cummings worked out how to counter it. Given that the approach used to achieve the Brexit vote has been documented in great detail I wonder how we'll see them applied in this new referendum?
  - TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
    The approach used to achieve the Brexit vote was to lie about everything and to write off rational reality-based objections as "Project Fear." Unfortunately in international politics, winning a vote at home doesn't translate to a winning move internationally. The huge disconnect between how Brexiters think the world works and how the world really works isn't subject to a popular vote or to media spin. It is going to cause the UK - well, England - catastrophic problems over the coming decade.
kozhevnikov 10y ago
Wasn't that the plan for Brexit referendum, to shut UKIP up? That turned out well.
- billpg 10y ago
  Like they ever would have gone away even if the vote was over 60% to remain. They'd have demanded a second referendum (and 3rd and 4th and 5th...) until they got the result they wanted.
  - arethuza 10y ago
    As Farage said: "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."
    - BEEdwards 10y ago
      It was around 52-48 and they have declared it finished business... Anyone with objections to a slim majority making such a sweeping decision is met with, "leave one, get over it."
m0nty 10y ago
I had expected them to wait until 2019 given that's the probable date for the next general election. I think they might be timing this to coincide with Article 70 notification this week. Apart from people's fears about what that will mean, there's a chance of adverse reactions from the markets and business which might focus Scots' minds on what could happen. They're definitely not bluffing. Clue's in the name.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- achanda358 10y ago
  I think you mean Article 50
  - m0nty 10y ago
    Yes, probably 2020 on the election too, but there was some talk of a referendum in 2019. Will not edit ... Article 50 possibly as early as tomorrow.
Arnt 10y ago
You may be right, but keep in mind that the SNP managed to take 58 out of 59 possible seats in a recent election. Calling the bluff of someone who can campaign to a result as good as that... hm...
- pjc50 10y ago
  Yes, although that's entirely a result of FPTP in a non-proportional system.
  - Arnt 10y ago
    FPTP plays a role, but "entirely"? Winning 40+% per cent of the vote isn't easy in the first place, and directing the campaigning effort well enough to win 58 out of 59 single-seat districts is a rare feat.
vidarh 10y ago
Maybe they are bluffing in the sense that their request will almost certainly be denied at this point, and it may very well be they are banking on that. I certainly think there is a sense that to get a poll on a timeline they want, they need to start pushing now, because they know they can expect resistance.
- arethuza 10y ago
  "their request will almost certainly be denied at this point" I can't imagine anything that would increase support for independence more than any hint that we wouldn't be allowed to have another referendum. [OK - apart from BoJo being PM].
  - vidarh 10y ago
    Possibly. And maybe I'm overstating the chance they'll be refused because of course Theresa May will be aware of that. At the same time I expect the Tories to be ultra-sensitive to the reality of the Brexit vote, where people were also quite certain Remain had it in the bag for very long. At the same time, note Nicola Sturgeon's statements about how this isn't up to Westminster. Legally, of course, it currently is. But she's setting Theresa May up to use a refusal as a "look how undemocratic Westminster is" if it's refused. Look for attempts to bypass Westminster if it's slapped down - which may be serious, or may also be designed out of expectation they'll cause unfavourable reaction to another Westminster slap-down. Their massive majority of Scottish MPs also mean they will be able to paint any Westminster refusal as England dictating Scottish issues. It's very much a lose-lose for Theresa May in any case. If a vote is accepted, then it will be a constant distraction during the Brexit negotiations, for example, where any whiff of results negative to Scotland will be exploited for what it's worth...
pjc50 10y ago
This is no bluff, this is a real action. If you want a poker metaphor, this is a raise. If anyone's bluffing in this environment, it has to be Theresa May; the Brexit plan is far less coherent than the plan for an independent Scotland, it's not clear what cards she might hold that have any value, and her ministers are briefing against her in the Times.
matthewmacleod 10y ago
(Note that this isn't just an SNP move – it's the policy of the Scottish Greens as well as other civic groups) The outcome of the vote could fall either way, but it's certainly not a bluff. Current support for independence is Scotland is around 45-50%; there was a clear indication in the current government's manifesto that a referendum would be held if the UK exited the EU.

johansch 10y ago

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/ https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-show... "Why have the polls not shown a shift towards Scottish independence?"

hackerboos 10y ago
Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-independence-why-second-vote-back-on-table-nicola-sturgeon https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...
- danielsamuels 10y ago
  I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an Scotland's approval rating of the deal.
  - hackerboos 10y ago
    You're right. Calling a second referendum is the best way to apply pressure on the UK government. If the terms are unfavourable to Scotland, they will likely leave the union.
  - Symbiote 10y ago
    It looks like that's pretty much the intention: > Speaking at her official Bute House residence in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said the people of Scotland must be offered a choice between a "hard Brexit" and becoming an independent country. Autumn 2018 - Spring 2019 also fits the two year negotiation timeline. 🇪🇺
- pjc50 10y ago
  Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was. I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend all their time trying to avoid letting Jeremy Corbyn say anything on the subject.

byefruit 10y ago

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

m0nty 10y ago
Could be worse than that, at least from the viewpoint of the Conservative and Unionist Party, to give them their full (and oft-forgot) name: > "For the first time in my life, the prospect of a united Ireland is not only credible but inevitable" http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/northern-ireland-stormont-crisis-sinn-fein-dup-united-ireland-credible-inevitable-a7615756.html http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/northern-ireland-stormon...
- richardwhiuk 10y ago
  Unionist means union between Northern Ireland and England, not a united Ireland - the term for that is Republican.
  - m0nty 10y ago
    Yes, that's what I meant. It's coded into their DNA (and their name) to not want the union to disintegrate.
  - miceeatnicerice 10y ago
    That might have been m0nty's exact point
pjc50 10y ago
The Union has long operated as internal colonialism; this is just the next step in de-colonising the system. It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.
- 10y ago

Y_Y 10y ago

Self-determination and post-colonialism only seem to apply away from home. Madrid has a big influence on this because of Catalonia and Basque country, but there are tons of non-self-governing territories[0] which are swept under the rug, or clung to with claws of "economic uncertainty". It's funny that Scotland lost its (semi-)independence by trying their own hand at colonialism[1]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_list_of_Non-Self-Governing_Territories#List_not_complete https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_list_of_Non-Sel... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme

bussie 10y ago

There's no guarantee that Scotland will be allowed into the EEA or EU as an independent nation. In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

s_dev 10y ago
Thats not true. Scotland would have to apply but Brexit negotiators said the application could even be fast tracked and wouldn't be a big problem for Scotland to rejoin. >Jacqueline Minor, the European commission’s head of representation in the UK, said Scotland would need to formally apply after leaving the UK, although it could be fast-tracked because it already complies with EU rules and regulations. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/independent-scotland-would-have-to-apply-for-eu-membership https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/independent... Spain are concerned that it might a set a precedent for Catalonia to get independence but if the Scottish independence came about because of the UK leaving the EU Spain will be conformable in allowing Scotland to join.
iMark 10y ago
There is, however, a guarantee that a non-independent Scotland will be part of neither as a result of Brexit. There's no small irony to the fact that scaremongering around Europe was such a big focus of the Better Together campaign in the run up to the first referendum.
nailer 10y ago
> In fact, some member states are opposed to it. Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the others.
- rkachowski 10y ago
  The classic example is usually presented as Spain, due to fears of setting a precedent that the Basque Country and Catalan could follow to remove themselves from Spain.
- iMark 10y ago
  Spain has previously come out strongly against an independent Scotland joining the EU, largely because of the issue of Catalonian independence.

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planetjones 10y ago

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currency will be a central issue (if anybody other than the SNP can be bothered to campaign - the Westminster Government will have their hands full with brexit negotiations, so I doubt Scotland's independence will be top of their agenda)

aetherson 10y ago
While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.
- RobertoG 10y ago
  "currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control" And that's the key thing. They would be changing masters, probably for the worst. As a former Euro supporter and now Euro sceptic I would recommend them to keep their lead in their own hand.
  - aetherson 10y ago
    But that doesn't seem to be what they want. I agree about being skeptical of being a small, relatively powerless country in a currency union with a much larger economy, but that's the case for them regardless of whether they're on the Pound Sterling or the Euro.
    - RobertoG 10y ago
      That's my point. They can't do nothing about being a small country. Their best option is have their own currency.

dijit 10y ago

I am Scottish from birth- I spent nearly my entire life living in the middle of England. The English are very angry about this and are touting Sturgeon as a crying "remoaner". They believe that they had a referrendum recently and therefore it's just "keep trying until you get the result you wanted". If you're a person with that in mind I have a few things to say: 1) the UK being a member of the EU was something sorely needed, but people consider it a trade union deal and not anything else. Therefore they use the argument that the EU has changed enough to warrant leaving. 2) Scotland largely voted remain last time because it was immediately evident that the EU would not allow Scotland to join- since Spain and the remaining UK was in strong favour of vetoing entry. This has fundamentally changed. 3) Now Scotland will not remain in the EU despite voting overwhelmingly to remain. Leaving the EU now would be the antithesis of "the will of the people".. so you can't say that "they voted, get over it". I'm rather sour on the whole experience regarding Brexit, there has been a _lot_ of smug mudslinging from the leave side, and they've already tried to scapegoat the remain campaign as being "not with the program" and subsequently sabotaging the leave campaign.

thenomad 10y ago
Also worth noting that a major point of the anti-independence campaign last time was that Scotland would get to stay in the EU if they stayed part of the UK. That has obviously changed somewhat.

a_name 10y ago

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

pjc50 10y ago
> racist SNP Unsubstantiated smear.
matthewmacleod 10y ago
Hello, please remain respectful. It's fine to disagree with the the SNP's policies, but calling them 'racist' is clearly outside the bounds of reason. To answer your specific point, my understanding is that general noise from Spain is that a Scottish application for EU membership would not be vetoed.
- zigzigzag 10y ago
  It isn't 'racism' technically, you're right. Perhaps more like a mild form of bigotry. You might strongly disagree, but the SNP routinely phrases independence like this: Scotland will be "fairer" if it is independent i.e. the English who keep outvoting us are nasty and "unfair" by nature. There are lots of quotes from people like Salmond and Sturgeon along those lines. What they mean is "we disagree with the dominant political viewpoint in England" but what they say is that the English are morally defective and the Scots, morally superior. That's merely irritating when it's a left wing/right wing party political campaign, as people can change their political party quite easily. When it's phrased in terms of ethnic origin, that crosses the line.
  - matthewmacleod 10y ago
    I'm baffled by what form you think a separatist political argument could possibly take, in that case.

ruairidhwm 10y ago

I'm extremely excited for it. There's a huge amount of division in UK politics, and in Scottish politics. I suspect that there will be the arguments about currency and EU membership which the UK government will lobby to make life difficult for Scotland, but as the pound is doing poorly and we're leaving the EU anyway, there isn't much to lose.

andy_ppp 10y ago

Can London please also seek independence and stop sending huge sums of money to the rest of the UK. I'd even be happy with the Euro or our own currency The London Pound. We might need to ask Donald Trump about building a wall though... You might not even have to charge people who lived in London income tax, for example, due to the large number of companies based here. ;-)

Someone1234 10y ago

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/paranoid/racist English-Welsh alliance then they're better off leaving and trying to gain EU membership. My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?) EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years. So I definitely think the Scottish leadership needs to better plan out EU entry relative to the last referendum. With or without Scotland, England is a sinking ship, better that other countries don't tie themselves to her mask as she flounders.

ruairidhwm 10y ago
Disclaimer: I'm Scottish Really appreciate the well-wishing on it. I would love for there to still be a very open relationship between the two countries. We've got plenty of space up here and a booming tech scene! Agreed on clarification with the EU membership but I think this is something that the SNP have been working on and that we can expect to see follow-up announcements. Interesting times!
- pm90 10y ago
  Interesting to see what might happen post Brexit if Scotland does become Independent and stays in the EU. London has been a great place for International companies to set up shop to access the EU market and labor force...I wonder if they will simply relocate to Scotland? England only business matters could also be handled from within Scotland itself.
  - ruairidhwm 10y ago
    It'd be very easy to set up parallel legal structures in Scotland and then just transfer the business up. You possibly wouldn't even need to relocate.

neverminder 10y ago

I see this as a lose-lose scenario. If Scotland votes to split - it is effectively the end of UK as we've come to know it for a very long time. Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do better than the smaller ones. If they vote to remain that will be bad as well, because it will embolden the politicians (tories in this specific case) that they can get away with anything (breaking up the country with their disastrous Brexit in this particular case). I am a european living in UK.

legulere 10y ago
The lose scenario of a split already happened with the Brexit. Now it is time to save as much as possible. Scotland wants to stay in the EU and has interests diverging from England and Wales. Why should Scotland stay with them to make them stronger?
diakritikal 10y ago
> Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do better than the smaller ones. This is demonstrably false: roughly half of the top ten countries ranked by standard of living and quality of life are small European nations about the same size as Scotland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Dev...
- ghaff 10y ago
  There's a much better argument for it historically because being a small country tended to end up getting you invaded or otherwise subservient to one or the other of your bigger neighbors. But that really an issue with most European countries today. Larger/richer countries still tend to have more control over their own destinies but that doesn't necessarily translate to quality of living standards.
- jonathansizz 10y ago
  I think neverminder meant that, amongst countries that separate, the larger of the new countries will generally be better off than their smaller neighbour. Your list doesn't address this point. Examples would include Pakistan-Bangladesh; Czech Republic-Slovakia; and Sudan-South Sudan.

sarreph 10y ago

If you continue to give a misinformed, divided public chances at irreversible, macro decisions, then they will eventually vote in favour. This is why these kinds of decisions are not plebiscites!

alkonaut 10y ago

I thought the threat of Scotland leaving was what was going to sway the Brexit vote to a clear No. I hope everyone who voted leave understood that it was the dissolution of the union they voted for, and not some backtracking into a pre-EU britain.

aembleton 10y ago
The referendum was not binding. The decision to leave the EU was taken by MPs.

gozur88 10y ago

What do these kinds of referendums mean? This is just three years after the last "once in a generation" referendum. Let's say it goes independence. Will supporters be okay with another referendum three years later that might reverse that decision? It all smacks of opportunism and reminds me of all the other EU-related votes that keep happening until voters pick the right answer.

restalis 10y ago
It seems that the state affairs have the means to be more agile nowadays. It's a good thing that switches can happen more than once in a generation.

mcbruiser1 10y ago

how is voting to remain in the EU a vote for "independence"? seems like exactly the opposite of independence.

6Typos 10y ago
Scottish independence from UK

tzs 10y ago

Suppose Scotland does vote to separate from the UK, presumably with the intention of attempting to gain EU membership. My understanding, based on a whole minute or two of Googling, is that the relationship between the parts of the UK, such as Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland is similar to the relationship between the states in the United States: if you are a citizen of the union, you are automatically a citizen of whichever part you live in. I wonder, then, if between the time of the vote and the time that independence actually happens if Scottish independence would trigger a lot of movement (1) to England of Scots who do not want independence from the UK or who do not want to try to join the EU, and (2) to Scotland of English who want a shot at staying in the EU?

Symbiote 10y ago
Citizenship isn't clear at all. There's no clear concept of English, Welsh, Scottish or Northern Irish citizenship -- we are British citizens, and European Union citizens. During the previous independence vote in Scotland, the people who voted were British, Commonwealth and EU citizens resident in Scotland. Around 800,000 people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK. Millions more presumably have a parent born in Scotland, but weren't themselves. I was born in England. I emigrated from the UK in 2015, and briefly considered registering as resident in Scotland (rather than England) just before I left, on the off-chance that Brexit went ahead without Scotland. However, the likelihood seemed remote, so I didn't consider it seriously.

ed_blackburn 10y ago

I wonder if this will effect the UN Security Council membership? The dissolution of the UK and it's nuclear naval bases based in an EU country which is anti-nuclear weapons.