6 ms·

Just because a few people from outside the US are worried about visa issues before applying to an incubator doesn't spell the end of Silicon Valley. The money,

by muninn_ 10y ago

Just because a few people from outside the US are worried about visa issues before applying to an incubator doesn't spell the end of Silicon Valley. The money, talent, and infrastructure to support startups (and large tech companies for that matter) aren't going away anytime soon and likely wouldn't go away even if we completely completely halted green card holders. Not that I would ever advocate something like that.

JamilD 10y ago
I don't think that's necessarily true. The Bay Area's become an international hub for tech, not just a domestic one — many influential founders (including Elon Musk, Peter Thiel) were born outside the United States.
- muninn_ 10y ago
  I don't disagree. It is the world's premier tech hub. But a fleeting 4 year long ban on immigrants wouldn't turn the city to rubble and leave everybody without jobs as Google and Y Combinator pack up bags and move to Tijuana and Beijing. There are larger forces at play here than that.
  - JamilD 10y ago
    Of course. But it'll do some damage, which will only get worse as time goes on. What about 8 years? 12? If you restrict skilled legal immigration long-term, you're necessarily going to (slowly) drive companies away.
    - muninn_ 10y ago
      This implies that we don't have enough home-grown talent. We do.
      - JamilD 10y ago
        It's not a zero-sum game of open jobs to potential employees. If you're able to interact with the smartest people in the world - and not just your own country - you end up forming more effective and larger companies. Which in turn create jobs. If you shut out your country to the rest of the world, the next Google will be founded somewhere else. And I'll dispute your claim that the US has enough talent. There was a submission on HN recently about the top deep learning papers. Go through it. Count the number of American-born people. Geoff Hinton? Yann LeCun? Russ Salakhutdinov? Demis Hassibis (of Deep Mind)? Virtually everyone on there was born somewhere else. They're not Americans, but they're mostly working for American companies and contributing their talent to YOUR economy. [0] https://github.com/terryum/awesome-deep-learning-papers/blob/master/README.md https://github.com/terryum/awesome-deep-learning-papers/blob...
        muninn_ 10y ago
        Sure and I love that those people (highly skilled immigrants) are working for American companies. But so what? That doesn't demonstrate that the US doesn't have enough talent. It just shows that some people from out of the country were working on something. Maybe if the situation was different then that paper could be exclusively written be Americans. The majority of the worlds most intelligent people reside elsewhere, but the US has nearly 400 million people. It's fine with or without immigrants. Japan is fine isn't it?
        JamilD 10y ago
        Let me end off by saying there's a difference between being "fine" and "exceptional". If you're content with the former, then that's okay, no problem there -- cutting off immigration will be okay. America will survive, there won't be an apocalypse. Like Japan right now -- it's got mediocre companies with a mediocre economy. Many papers are written exclusively by Americans, but they're often not the best. That's what you're going to have to be content with, if you shut off immigration. Being okay, but not the best. Imagine that those researchers couldn't go to the US. Imagine instead of Google DeepMind beating Lee Sedol it was a Canadian or Chinese company. Imagine if the first company to roll out mass self-driving cars would be Didi instead of Tesla. It's an inevitability, once all the top minds in the world go to companies outside the US. And as I said, it's not horrible for America, the country will surivive and do okay, but there'll be jobs lost and innovation will go somewhere else.
  - neptunespear 10y ago
    Isn't it a bitter irony that someone who became successful in Silicon Valley (Peter Thiel) was a driving force to get a president, whose policies could potentially lead to a bit of a decline for Silicon Valley, elected?
Iv 10y ago
> aren't going away anytime soon Reading the news, I would not bet too much money on that either.
- muninn_ 10y ago
  I'd love to actually take that bet. Excluding thermonuclear war, if things get annoying enough we'll just elect a democrat next year and restore the political arena that people believe is best. One (what seems to be) bad president isn't going to completely ruin Silicon Valley. It's pure hyperbole.
  - jacquesm 10y ago
    > Excluding thermonuclear war, if things get annoying enough we'll just elect a democrat next year and restore the political arena that people believe is best. Most likely not next year.
    - mschuster91 10y ago
      > Most likely not next year. In Germany and many other European countries, when the government resigns (or the government is mistrusted by parliament), there is the possibility of immediate new elections. Is this totally impossible in the US?
      - nradov 10y ago
        Totally impossible (unless Congress or the States amend the Constitution to make it possible).
      - djrogers 10y ago
        In the US "The Government" is not a thing that resigns - it'd be the President. If the President resigned, the VP would become acting President until the next election. If the VP also resigned, we'd work our way down the line of succession. The system we have here is quite different from the parliamentary system you may be more familiar with.
elif 10y ago
I don't think it's "a few people." It is everyone holding or desiring a US visa that is worried. I would contend that it is only the extent of that fear that is variable. Maybe I am wrong and there are visa holders feeling absolute confidence at the moment, but I would like to hear why from even one before considering your "a few people" categorization as anything but spin.
- muninn_ 10y ago
  I'm speaking in relation to Y Combinator and those who are looking to apply to come to the United Stats to start a company. The number of those people is an absolutely small number compared to the whole. Unless you have data proving otherwise?
- mehaveaccount 10y ago
  I'm a visa holder and I'm not worried because worst case scenario I go back home to live with my family who loves me.
  - chongli 10y ago
    You haven't been reading the news very carefully. Worst case scenario is that you get sent to a 3rd party country, have your passport seized upon landing, and possibly end up in prison where your human rights are at risk.
    - DrJid 10y ago
      Source?
    - mehaveaccount 10y ago
      Source?
- adventured 10y ago
  > It is everyone holding or desiring a US visa that is worried It's so far out of line of reason to believe that the US is going to basically end all - or any meaningful portion of - legal immigration, as to be nearly impossible to reply to. Where to start? The US will switch, if anything, to a merit based system. Canada already uses just such a system. Nobody seems to be outraged about it, or proclaiming the end of Canada because of it. There's far too much emotion in this thread.

by muninn_ 10y ago

JamilD 10y ago

I don't think that's necessarily true. The Bay Area's become an international hub for tech, not just a domestic one — many influential founders (including Elon Musk, Peter Thiel) were born outside the United States.

muninn_ 10y ago
I don't disagree. It is the world's premier tech hub. But a fleeting 4 year long ban on immigrants wouldn't turn the city to rubble and leave everybody without jobs as Google and Y Combinator pack up bags and move to Tijuana and Beijing. There are larger forces at play here than that.
- JamilD 10y ago
  Of course. But it'll do some damage, which will only get worse as time goes on. What about 8 years? 12? If you restrict skilled legal immigration long-term, you're necessarily going to (slowly) drive companies away.
  - muninn_ 10y ago
    This implies that we don't have enough home-grown talent. We do.
    - JamilD 10y ago
      It's not a zero-sum game of open jobs to potential employees. If you're able to interact with the smartest people in the world - and not just your own country - you end up forming more effective and larger companies. Which in turn create jobs. If you shut out your country to the rest of the world, the next Google will be founded somewhere else. And I'll dispute your claim that the US has enough talent. There was a submission on HN recently about the top deep learning papers. Go through it. Count the number of American-born people. Geoff Hinton? Yann LeCun? Russ Salakhutdinov? Demis Hassibis (of Deep Mind)? Virtually everyone on there was born somewhere else. They're not Americans, but they're mostly working for American companies and contributing their talent to YOUR economy. [0] https://github.com/terryum/awesome-deep-learning-papers/blob/master/README.md https://github.com/terryum/awesome-deep-learning-papers/blob...
      - muninn_ 10y ago
        Sure and I love that those people (highly skilled immigrants) are working for American companies. But so what? That doesn't demonstrate that the US doesn't have enough talent. It just shows that some people from out of the country were working on something. Maybe if the situation was different then that paper could be exclusively written be Americans. The majority of the worlds most intelligent people reside elsewhere, but the US has nearly 400 million people. It's fine with or without immigrants. Japan is fine isn't it?
        JamilD 10y ago
        Let me end off by saying there's a difference between being "fine" and "exceptional". If you're content with the former, then that's okay, no problem there -- cutting off immigration will be okay. America will survive, there won't be an apocalypse. Like Japan right now -- it's got mediocre companies with a mediocre economy. Many papers are written exclusively by Americans, but they're often not the best. That's what you're going to have to be content with, if you shut off immigration. Being okay, but not the best. Imagine that those researchers couldn't go to the US. Imagine instead of Google DeepMind beating Lee Sedol it was a Canadian or Chinese company. Imagine if the first company to roll out mass self-driving cars would be Didi instead of Tesla. It's an inevitability, once all the top minds in the world go to companies outside the US. And as I said, it's not horrible for America, the country will surivive and do okay, but there'll be jobs lost and innovation will go somewhere else.
- neptunespear 10y ago
  Isn't it a bitter irony that someone who became successful in Silicon Valley (Peter Thiel) was a driving force to get a president, whose policies could potentially lead to a bit of a decline for Silicon Valley, elected?

Iv 10y ago

> aren't going away anytime soon Reading the news, I would not bet too much money on that either.

muninn_ 10y ago
I'd love to actually take that bet. Excluding thermonuclear war, if things get annoying enough we'll just elect a democrat next year and restore the political arena that people believe is best. One (what seems to be) bad president isn't going to completely ruin Silicon Valley. It's pure hyperbole.
- jacquesm 10y ago
  > Excluding thermonuclear war, if things get annoying enough we'll just elect a democrat next year and restore the political arena that people believe is best. Most likely not next year.
  - mschuster91 10y ago
    > Most likely not next year. In Germany and many other European countries, when the government resigns (or the government is mistrusted by parliament), there is the possibility of immediate new elections. Is this totally impossible in the US?
    - nradov 10y ago
      Totally impossible (unless Congress or the States amend the Constitution to make it possible).
    - djrogers 10y ago
      In the US "The Government" is not a thing that resigns - it'd be the President. If the President resigned, the VP would become acting President until the next election. If the VP also resigned, we'd work our way down the line of succession. The system we have here is quite different from the parliamentary system you may be more familiar with.

elif 10y ago

I don't think it's "a few people." It is everyone holding or desiring a US visa that is worried. I would contend that it is only the extent of that fear that is variable. Maybe I am wrong and there are visa holders feeling absolute confidence at the moment, but I would like to hear why from even one before considering your "a few people" categorization as anything but spin.

muninn_ 10y ago
I'm speaking in relation to Y Combinator and those who are looking to apply to come to the United Stats to start a company. The number of those people is an absolutely small number compared to the whole. Unless you have data proving otherwise?
mehaveaccount 10y ago
I'm a visa holder and I'm not worried because worst case scenario I go back home to live with my family who loves me.
- chongli 10y ago
  You haven't been reading the news very carefully. Worst case scenario is that you get sent to a 3rd party country, have your passport seized upon landing, and possibly end up in prison where your human rights are at risk.
  - DrJid 10y ago
    Source?
  - mehaveaccount 10y ago
    Source?
adventured 10y ago
> It is everyone holding or desiring a US visa that is worried It's so far out of line of reason to believe that the US is going to basically end all - or any meaningful portion of - legal immigration, as to be nearly impossible to reply to. Where to start? The US will switch, if anything, to a merit based system. Canada already uses just such a system. Nobody seems to be outraged about it, or proclaiming the end of Canada because of it. There's far too much emotion in this thread.