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Some more detail articles about current China <-> Europe regular train connection (actually it goes weekly to Poland): http://postandparcel.info/56547/news/inno

Some more detail articles about current China <-> Europe regular train connection (actually it goes weekly to Poland): http://postandparcel.info/56547/news/innovation/dhl-launches-weekly-train-link-from-china-to-poland/ http://postandparcel.info/56547/news/innovation/dhl-launches... http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/06/28/what-the-newly-branded-china-europe-silk-road-trains-really-mean/#22e225e1d852 http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/06/28/what-the-... It make sense for goods that sending them by air is too expensive, but they are too time sensitive to send them by ship. It takes a day by plane, 14 days by train, 45 days by the ship. I would expect in good scenario that train would be somewhat similar popular as air, but nowhere near close volume as by sea.

jakozaur 10y ago
Some price estimates: (very crude, but shows magnitude of price) Rail is 4 times more expensive than by sea. Air is at least 6 times more expensive than rail, but can be even 18 times more expensive if payload is heavy. Cost of shipping 40′ HC container: - by sea: $1,600 - by train: $6,800 - by air, light, so you pay for volume: 4.6 USD / kg, 40 ft got volume 67.7 m3 * 143 kg / m3 ~= 9 tons, $41,400 - by air, heavy, so you pay for real weight: 4.6 USD / kg, 40tf can be 27tons, $124,200 Shanghai <-> Gdynia, Poland: http://www.transportchiny.pl/ceny_transportu_z_chin.php http://www.transportchiny.pl/ceny_transportu_z_chin.php Shanghai <–> Małaszewicze, Poland http://gocargo.pl/czy-transport-koleja-z-chin-jest-oplacalny/ http://gocargo.pl/czy-transport-koleja-z-chin-jest-oplacalny... By Air: http://www.chinaimportal.com/blog/air-freight-import-china-guide/ http://www.chinaimportal.com/blog/air-freight-import-china-g... Container: https://www.searates.com/reference/equipment/3/ https://www.searates.com/reference/equipment/3/ Excuse me for non-English links, but that was the easiest what I can find.
- SixSigma 10y ago
  Pollution - Air cargo - 0.8063 kg of CO2 per Ton-Mile - Truck - 0.1693 kg of CO2 per Ton-Mile - Train - 0.1048 kg of CO2 per Ton-Mile - Sea freight - 0.0403 kg of CO2 per Ton-Mile So I see this competing with air freight, not sea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_transport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_transp...
  - cbr 10y ago
    Most of the people making these decisions are primarily concerned with cost and time and not pollution, so what determines whether this will be successful is primarily cost vs time.
    - SixSigma 10y ago
      The people I know in freight barely think about cost, it's all about time. But you're right - not pollution. Some regulators might start offering incentives in that regard though.
      - mikeash 10y ago
        Do they ever use anything besides air freight? The fact that slower methods get a lot of business suggests a lot of people are thinking about cost over time.
  - willyt 10y ago
    But the ship route China <-> London is a lot more miles than the train.
    - SixSigma 10y ago
      18 days train vs 30 days ships. No-one I know in logistics is very worried about cost per container, especially with the massive over capacity in shipping. When the iPhone launched they brought them by 747, I think this train would have been a viable option.
    - torrent-of-ions 10y ago
      I would have thought so too, but I'm not sure. Does anyone have any figures on this?
      - novaleaf 10y ago
        no figures, but there is the northern route (north of russia) so getting to europe via sea is pretty direct. Thank global warming for that! https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/05/melting-arctic-ice-supertankers https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/05/melting-...
- Ericson2314 10y ago
  Rail would seem in principle to far and away be the most efficient, so I hope these prices change to reflect that.
  - thecabinet 10y ago
    What principle is that? Prices reflect reality, not the other way around.
    - conanbatt 10y ago
      If only willpower were enough to bend prices into personal preferences
      - Ericson2314 10y ago
        Other things affect price besides energy efficiency. Railroads could charge a premium for speed. Also, existing rail routes could be sub-optimal.
  - mikeash 10y ago
    Do you mean more efficient than ships? Ships are far more efficient. They can scale up far larger, making for much lower fuel consumption per ton, and don't need to maintain much (or often any at all) infrastructure between terminals. Trains exist just because a substantial minority of the planet's surface isn't covered by water.
    - Silhouette 10y ago
      Indeed. It's hard to intuit because of the sheer scale of the vessels, but modern container shipping is almost magical in its capacity and efficiency. I once saw an estimate that the cost in resources to transport a container all the way from China to the UK on a ship was actually less than the cost of putting that container on the back of a lorry and transporting it just a few hundred miles to a distribution centre in the midlands once it landed.
- donmatito 10y ago
  very interesting. That makes it a viable option between 'I have 6 months to plan this product launch, let's choose the cheapest' and 'I have empty shelves, let refill them whatever the cost'

jakozaur 10y ago

Some price estimates: (very crude, but shows magnitude of price) Rail is 4 times more expensive than by sea. Air is at least 6 times more expensive than rail, but can be even 18 times more expensive if payload is heavy. Cost of shipping 40′ HC container: - by sea: $1,600 - by train: $6,800 - by air, light, so you pay for volume: 4.6 USD / kg, 40 ft got volume 67.7 m3 * 143 kg / m3 ~= 9 tons, $41,400 - by air, heavy, so you pay for real weight: 4.6 USD / kg, 40tf can be 27tons, $124,200 Shanghai <-> Gdynia, Poland: http://www.transportchiny.pl/ceny_transportu_z_chin.php http://www.transportchiny.pl/ceny_transportu_z_chin.php Shanghai <–> Małaszewicze, Poland http://gocargo.pl/czy-transport-koleja-z-chin-jest-oplacalny/ http://gocargo.pl/czy-transport-koleja-z-chin-jest-oplacalny... By Air: http://www.chinaimportal.com/blog/air-freight-import-china-guide/ http://www.chinaimportal.com/blog/air-freight-import-china-g... Container: https://www.searates.com/reference/equipment/3/ https://www.searates.com/reference/equipment/3/ Excuse me for non-English links, but that was the easiest what I can find.

SixSigma 10y ago
Pollution - Air cargo - 0.8063 kg of CO2 per Ton-Mile - Truck - 0.1693 kg of CO2 per Ton-Mile - Train - 0.1048 kg of CO2 per Ton-Mile - Sea freight - 0.0403 kg of CO2 per Ton-Mile So I see this competing with air freight, not sea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_transport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_transp...
- cbr 10y ago
  Most of the people making these decisions are primarily concerned with cost and time and not pollution, so what determines whether this will be successful is primarily cost vs time.
  - SixSigma 10y ago
    The people I know in freight barely think about cost, it's all about time. But you're right - not pollution. Some regulators might start offering incentives in that regard though.
    - mikeash 10y ago
      Do they ever use anything besides air freight? The fact that slower methods get a lot of business suggests a lot of people are thinking about cost over time.
- willyt 10y ago
  But the ship route China <-> London is a lot more miles than the train.
  - SixSigma 10y ago
    18 days train vs 30 days ships. No-one I know in logistics is very worried about cost per container, especially with the massive over capacity in shipping. When the iPhone launched they brought them by 747, I think this train would have been a viable option.
  - torrent-of-ions 10y ago
    I would have thought so too, but I'm not sure. Does anyone have any figures on this?
    - novaleaf 10y ago
      no figures, but there is the northern route (north of russia) so getting to europe via sea is pretty direct. Thank global warming for that! https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/05/melting-arctic-ice-supertankers https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/05/melting-...
Ericson2314 10y ago
Rail would seem in principle to far and away be the most efficient, so I hope these prices change to reflect that.
- thecabinet 10y ago
  What principle is that? Prices reflect reality, not the other way around.
  - conanbatt 10y ago
    If only willpower were enough to bend prices into personal preferences
    - Ericson2314 10y ago
      Other things affect price besides energy efficiency. Railroads could charge a premium for speed. Also, existing rail routes could be sub-optimal.
- mikeash 10y ago
  Do you mean more efficient than ships? Ships are far more efficient. They can scale up far larger, making for much lower fuel consumption per ton, and don't need to maintain much (or often any at all) infrastructure between terminals. Trains exist just because a substantial minority of the planet's surface isn't covered by water.
  - Silhouette 10y ago
    Indeed. It's hard to intuit because of the sheer scale of the vessels, but modern container shipping is almost magical in its capacity and efficiency. I once saw an estimate that the cost in resources to transport a container all the way from China to the UK on a ship was actually less than the cost of putting that container on the back of a lorry and transporting it just a few hundred miles to a distribution centre in the midlands once it landed.
donmatito 10y ago
very interesting. That makes it a viable option between 'I have 6 months to plan this product launch, let's choose the cheapest' and 'I have empty shelves, let refill them whatever the cost'