6 ms·

reddit user TPKM's comment on the sanders-would-have-won-thread: "Support for Trump, much like Brexit, was based upon an extremely widespread feeling that aver

• micaksica 10y ago
  > curbing immigration is an actual solution to the problem. Curbing immigration won't be a solution to the problem; it's just a highly visible one. Each immigrant that is looking for a job in the US is taking one away from the supply for an American. That is how the Trumpistas see things. Economically, sure, that's true. The immigrants take jobs from the labor supply. What people don't see is that aside from ones on skilled visa programs is that these jobs are either 1. underpaid by minimum wage or 2. not jobs that these people actually want anyway, so at worse you will see a lot of inflation, or a lot of open job positions. It doesn't make sense, but it won't really make sense.
  • hx87 10y ago
    > so at worse you will see a lot of inflation Personally, I wouldn't mind inflation if all workers are paid a decent wage as a result. For far too long inflation has been too low and confined to precisely the wrong sectors (i.e. land, health care, education). It's time for workers to get their share of the action.
    • rabidrat 10y ago
      Wages lag inflation, unfortunately.
      • hx87 10y ago
        True if the inflation is driven by supply shocks (mid-late 1970s) or savings gluts (today). Not if the inflation is wage-driven, as in the late 1960s and early 1970s in the US.
  • tengbretson 10y ago
    > 2. not jobs that these people actually want anyway, so at worse you will see a lot of inflation, or a lot of open job positions. It doesn't make sense, but it won't really make sense. Is it your intuition that the labor market would not adjust to a lower supply by becoming more desirable? If not, why?
    • micaksica 10y ago
      The average salary of an undocumented immigrant is $36,000[1], which is far below that of the average trump voter, a median American above $50K although he did OK with people in the $40K bracket. The only group likely to see wage increases from mass deportation are high school dropouts [2]. From Wikipedia: Research by George Borjas found that the influx of immigrants (both legal and illegal) from Mexico and Central America from 1980 to 2000 accounted for a 3.7% wage loss for American workers (4.5% for black Americans and 5% for Hispanic Americans). Borjas found that wage depression was greatest for workers without a high school diploma (a 7.4% reduction) because these workers face the most direct competition with immigrants, legal and illegal. [3] Assuming ALL recent-ish immigrants are all mass deported and the economy adjusts immediately, you will see a ~7.4% shift of real wages for high school dropouts making the low end of <$36K, most of which voted for Clinton anyway. You'll see almost no issue with those above this rate because they are not competing with illegal immigrants. (This makes it more likely capitalists who see wage increases for non-service positions (eg manufacturing) will automate faster to reduce costs, but I think this is a side point considering that most jobs in the US today are in the service sector and not as easily automated away.) Of course, you could also give the suppressed income bracket a 7% tax cut and end up in roughly the same spot without mass deportation; the undocumented immigrants aren't paying income tax anyway, and this would be HIGHER than necessary because the above study takes into account legal immigration as well. [1] http://www.pewhispanic.org/2009/04/14/a-portrait-of-unauthorized-immigrants-in-the-united-states/ http://www.pewhispanic.org/2009/04/14/a-portrait-of-unauthor... [2] http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5312900 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5312900 [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_immigrants_in_the_United_States#Effect_on_per-capita_wealth_due_to_contribution_to_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_imm... [4] http://catalog.flatworldknowledge.com/bookhub/reader/2992?e=coopermicro-ch10_s02 http://catalog.flatworldknowledge.com/bookhub/reader/2992?e=...
  • greenshackle2 10y ago
    And I suspect that for skilled visa programs, labour demand is actually somewhat elastic, so that one additional skilled worker creates some fraction of a new job. The supply of jobs isn't fixed. Consider a company like Google, who doesn't hire on quotas, but just grabs all the talented engineers they can. In what sense is a visa worker taking a job away from an American, when Google will gladly hire both?
    • micaksica 10y ago
      I'd mostly agree with you on this point and it's divergent from the one that the Trumpistas care about. That said, I have seen companies that were "H-1B dependent", ie, they have paid the fees for visas to hire from outside the country, because they were able to get lower salaries from doing so even after paying the legal fees. Clearly not the Googles of the world, but they do exist.
      • greenshackle2 10y ago
        Yeah they definitely exist. And the ratio of those vs. the Googles will affect how elastic it is. Anywhere between 0.1 and 0.9 for the elasticity sounds plausible to me (not an economist, I could be not even using the right concepts, so take that for what it's worth).
      • greenshackle2 10y ago
        Yeah they definitely exist. And the ratio of those vs. the Googles will affect how elastic it is. Anywhere between 0.1 and 0.9 for the elasticity sounds plausible to me (not an economist, I could be not even using the right concepts, so take that for what it's worth).
    • bernawil 10y ago
      >not jobs that these people actually want anyway ... for the offered salary. The way I see it, "inorganically" adding to the labor supply hinders the natural price discovery of the market.
      • 10y ago
  • Shivetya 10y ago
    Immigrants really don't take jobs from those who live here. They end up in jobs most natives never look for in the first place. So who do they really displace? Low skilled immigrants work more than low skilled natives, they commit less crime, they use less welfare, and they tend to marry more.
  • vec 10y ago
    > Economically, sure, that's true. The immigrants take jobs from the labor supply. That's not actually true, though. Every immigrant who comes here and becomes employed is, of course, filling a slot that is no longer available to a native-born citizen. However, he or she will also be one more person who needs to be fed, clothed, housed, entertained, protected, and supported. All of those create demand that adds up to substantially more than one job (about 1.2, to be exact [1]). If there's one thing I'm taking away from this campaign and election, it's that people have big problems reasoning about systems where costs are acute and centralized and benefits are diffuse, even if on the whole they personally benefit substantially from those systems. This seems true for immigration, for climate change, for free trade, for healthcare reform. [1] http://www.nber.org/papers/w21123 http://www.nber.org/papers/w21123
    • vehementi 10y ago
      > All of those create demand that adds up to substantially more than one job (about 1.2, to be exact [1]). So, what would an opponent in good faith say against that? Is this a well known thing among Real Economists, which is just brushed under the rug when a politician wants to appeal to people with an anti-immigration policy? Or is there more to it? It seems to be really low hanging fruit to explain that and have massive economic boons by increasing immigration, right? Or is that not the conclusion? Because what you said is really intuitive and some politician should be able to just easily use that. Why don't Clinton/Obama say that when explaining why they're letting illegal immigrants stay?
      • vec 10y ago
        My guess (and this is only a guess) is that this is the power of anecdote. Within certain communities, everyone knows someone who lost their job or had their business close due to direct competition with someone being paid under the table illegally. Any politician who claimed that it was a good thing would read as so clearly out of touch with lived experience that it's not worth the trouble to look past the soundbite. It's the same sort of difficult argument as globalization and free trade. It hits you somewhere very easy to notice, so you feel like you're worse off even while you're sitting on your brand new couch watching whatever you want on demand on your 60" TV and eating your steak dinner. Making the link that all those other good things are a result of the same policy requires a small but not automatic intellectual leap that a lot of people clearly aren't prepared to make if they feel like the initial assertion doesn't pass the smell test.
  • ch4s3 10y ago
    >The immigrants take jobs from the labor supply I think you mean they fill labor demand or that they diminish the supply of jobs by providing labor. This however incorrectly assumes that the demand for labor is fixed. That demand is affected by supply + cost of labor and demand for goods and services. Immigrants consumer goods and pay of services so more immigrants means more aggregate consumer demand, which leads to higher demand for labor. In the end immigrants result in a net labor demand increase due to consumption. Immigrants no matter how frugal still get haircuts, buy groceries, see doctors, pay for tax help, call plumbers, by pants, go to bars, buy used cars etc.
    • micaksica 10y ago
      > I think you mean they fill labor demand or that they diminish the supply of jobs by providing labor. Yes, I do. Thank you for the clarification.
  • lerpa 10y ago
    When people are looking for jobs is great, America was founded upon immigrants looking for good working conditions. Some people will end up unemployed because they aren't able to adapt, yep, but that in the end makes production cheaper and more competitive. The problem happens when government burdens a group of people with taxes and makes their livelihood more expensive, and becomes the cause of such inability to compete in the market. Limiting immigration is the dumb man's solution to that problem, the real solution would be a yuge cutting of expenses in order to reduce tax burden, and consequently the size of government.
  • deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  • cookiecaper 10y ago
    While I think there is at least some validity to the "immigrants take local jobs" argument, it's really not the core of Trump's immigration platform. At the moment, the "took our jorbs" element is primarily being addressed by criticism of free trade. First, Trump is not anti-immigrant. Two of his wives have been immigrants and the new First Lady-elect (?) is an immigrant with a very noticeable accent. Trump is not anti-immigrant, he's anti-illegal-immigrant. Let me first say I sympathize with the plight of Central Americans and if I was in that position, either pay $20k and wait 5 years for approval, I would probably take the chances and run the border too, especially knowing my children would be U.S. citizens automatically. However, there are risks incumbent in doing that. Illegal immigration removes our ability to process and distribute new migrants. It makes it so we can't track whether they're having a disparate or unexpected economic impact, either on the nation as a whole or on specific areas. Illegal immigrants may have trouble finding jobs without SSNs, which may cause them to resort to crime, become dependent on welfare programs, or both. An insecure border allows people with impure motives, like terrorism, to enter. There can be substantial differences in social and cultural norms, which can affect their employability and ability to assimilate. While these people are illegally crossing the border, they're already committing a major repudiation to the social order of their intended new home by mocking rule of law and entering the country without authorization. All of these things need to be managed and that's why immigration law exists. Americans in border towns are getting overrun and there's no reason they should have to be. They're sick of it. People usually won't admit to this because SJWs come in and accuse them of being racist for wanting to preserve their traditions, social norms, employability, and language. The election of Trump is a resounding rejection of that hostile sentiment from the self-righteous elite class. Most Americans have no problem at all with immigrants from other cultures, races, religions, etc., as long as they are given the tools to manage, understand, and direct it so that it's not disruptive to the existing social and economic order. What all this really boils down to is something that both Republicans and Democrats agree on: our current immigration system is clunky, slow, and expensive, and badly needs rectification. Let's focus on fixing that instead of getting at each other's throats.
• cortesoft 10y ago
  The reason people don't feel they are getting the benefits of globalization is because the benefits are not as direct as the costs. When prices for goods are lower, it is not obvious to the average person that this is because of globalization. When your factory job is shipped overseas, the cost is readily apparent. No one makes the connection between the lower costs for things and globalization.
  • psyc 10y ago
    Costs of what? Consumer electronics and appliances? The staples of life that matter most - food and housing - have not decreased in cost.
    • AngrySkillzz 10y ago
      Not true on food.[1] CPI for food has fallen off a cliff in the last year+ compared to core CPI (ex food and energy). It is even negative currently, so yes food prices are decreasing. It seems to have been moderately lower on net since the end of the great recession. [1] http://imgur.com/a/p0ELF http://imgur.com/a/p0ELF
      • api 10y ago
        You're right about food, which yo-yos like other commodities and is somewhat tied to energy. Housing, health care, and college tuition are the great Satans of the economy for the middle and working classes. These have inflated without bound regardless of what wages or employment are doing.
  • bernawil 10y ago
    >. No one makes the connection between the lower costs for things and globalization. I think they do. I'm pretty sure most people know all the implications MADE IN CHINA carry. They see they are getting 1 unit of benefit for 2 units of hindrance.
    • lordnacho 10y ago
• hguant 10y ago
  > while Trump blamed immigration and open borders He also blamed the tax code, claiming many times to have taken advantage of it, and boasting of paying insanely low taxes on his businesses. This was seen as horrible by a lot of the left in this country - proof that "he doesn't want to shoulder his fair share of the burden"- but served as evidence to what a lot of middle America has suspected for years, that the tax increases Democrats proposed to pay for welfare programs weren't effecting the rich and were being paid for by the middle class. (Yes, this is a simplification of the issue.) Trump's 'I broke it and I know how to fix it' approach to the tax code the reason a lot of people who don't trust corporations voted for a tycoon.
  • cookiecaper 10y ago
    Trump won despite his status as a corporate tycoon because the people basically believe he's a double-agent. A corporate tycoon born with the heart of a worker. I think there's an argument that could be made there: Trump has a long history of being looked down upon by high society. Trump's also credible, because as someone whose attempted many different lines of business, he's seen what it takes to be competitive, and as someone with the heart of a worker, he didn't like it and wanted to even the playing field. Trump is the epitome of "Don't hate the player, hate the game". Trump was in a very unique position, shared perhaps only by a few dozen other living souls, to see the game, hate it, and be able to make a credible attempt to fix it.