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Live Presidential Forecast
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- 0xmohit 10y agoSo America is going to be great again. Congratulations!
- andars 10y agoHere is a survey of some extremely unlikely but entertaining outcomes. 1) Neither candidate gets 270, McMullin gets at least 1, either from Utah or a faithless elector. The "never trump" republicans in the House elect McMullin over Trump. End result: Evan McMullin as president 2) Same as 1), but with Gary Johnson 3) Majority in electoral vote, but some faithless electors withhold their vote. I'd actually very much like to see this happen, as it would be far more interesting to see the House have to decide on this. 4) Tie, deadlock in House and Senate. End result: Paul Ryan as president
- humanrebar 10y agoRepublicans would never choose a pro-choice president. Gary Johnson is not an option.
- andars 10y agoLast year, I would have agreed with you. However, I have wholesale lost all faith in my ability to understand how politics works. I would have said that this country would never elect Donald Trump, reality TV star (I understand other things as well), as president of the United States.
- evantahler 10y agoThis is very cool. I'd love to see a tech write up later this month... and some stats!
- the_duke 10y agoIt sure looks good. I hope there's a solid statistical model behind it too though.
- evantahler 10y agoYeah... the jitter being fake (and fast?) seems unnecessary per your other comment. If the jitter was an actual uncertainty measure or something... or less fast...
- isseu 10y agoit has a some random movement
- Arkaad 10y agoWouldn't that influence the voters?
- refurb 10y agoNot sure why you're getting downvoted. I know in Canada they have a media blackout for each timezone until polls close (or are almost closed). The assumption is people will change their vote based on early counts. However, that may have changed with the internet since you can't stop anyone from getting early results. Edit: yup, looks like Canada stopped that back in 2014 [1] [1]http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-reforms-include-end-to-blackout-on-early-results-1.2521981 http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-reforms-include-end...
- wyldfire 10y ago> The assumption is people will change their vote based on early counts. I think the most likely problem is not votes being swayed by popularity -- probaly moreso is turnout being impacted by a large lead.
- Rexxar 10y agoNice but the three top gauges are moving suspiciously fast. Do they add a little random the the real number to give a sort of error margin visualisation ?
- artursapek 10y agoYeah, it looks hilariously fake.
- the_duke 10y agoI just checked. They gauges moving around is definitely random. The updates are done with a "president.json" file, fetched every 15 seconds, but the timestamp in the json data only changes every 30-180 seconds. So all of the movement is just random jitter to make it engaging. Maybe a bit disingenuous. (Note: I first thought they might be using websockets, but no WS connection is made on the page. Only a ajax fetch of president.json)
- yoloswagins 10y agoCheck the websocket connection. Haven't noticed anything interesting coming down the pipe yet, but NYT is using it.
- the_duke 10y agoNope, no websocket connection on that page. That's what I checked first. ;)
- pat_space 10y agoThanks the_duke!
- Steko 10y agoI think the idea is to indicate these numbers have error bands: The estimates below include an estimate of uncertainty. We expect the uncertainty around these estimates to narrow, especially after races are called. I don't see any reason why we'd expect the uncertainty to be updated more than every 30-180 seconds or why any of this is the least bit "disingenuous".
- andr 10y agoThere is a proliferation of predictive models and their outcomes vary widely. LA Times consistently predicted a Trump win, FiveThirtyEight was down to a coin toss a few times, while The New York Times was persistently pro-Hillary. While those models were meant to help people make sense of the large number of individual polls, now we need models to make sense of the models.
- dj-wonk 10y agoYes, and this is a good thing. It is better than what we do, informally. We all use models (of some sort) when we process information; e.g. I discount certain publications and value others. But few people actually make their models explicit and ask others to critique them. Making a model public and explicit is a great first step. Building more models on top is a good thing, not a bad thing.
- mattnumbe 10y agoI feel that I'm an educated person, and I try to keep up with politics in America, but I really don't understand our system. How can some states be called with less than 20% of the votes being counted?
- coddingtonbear 10y agoExit polling, usually.
- andr 10y agoJust like there are swing states, there are swing counties. As soon as you figure their results out, you can call the state with a good degree of confidence.
- positr0n 10y agoI believe each individual network calls them at their own discretion. It's not an official "call" by the government or anything. As to why so early, they have enough confidence in exit polls and other previous polls to say that, for example, Hillary is not going to win Oklahoma.
- shostack 10y agoIs there any research on this news impacting voter participation? Ie if they feel their party is losing do they throw in the towel even though they still might have had a chance?
- cruisestacy 10y agoWatch live streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg
- the_duke 10y agoOff topic, but I might as well say it here: I just tuned in to CNN: I think the way they cover the results is ridiculous. They just babble off random, pointless numbers without pause, with their fancy interactive maps in the background. They announce small changes with a sensationalism that's almost pathetic (KEY RACE ALERT! ALL OFF A SUDDEN Clinton takes the lead in Florida!! (by 20k votes... with a vote count of 30%). Very little actual, substantive discussion of key results to watch out for, of key states, ... One of the biggest news channels in the world should be able to do a bit better than that, IMO.
- jdavis703 10y agoOne of the top stories on the homepage this afternoon was about how everyone in the Trump family was glancing over to see how the other members voted. Are grade school antics what the system has come down to?
- Retric 10y agoWell it was footage of him breaking the law which is slightly more interesting. But, yea he is an entertainer and knows how to work a room.
- lucio 10y agoTheir function is to entertain, information is an afterthought. It is not a managerial decision, all TV is directed by ratings, "entertainment" is what people want, so "entertainment" is what they give to them.
- the_duke 10y agoNBC news has reasonable coverage. Even Fox does it better. (As unbelievable as that is...) There's a reason I picked on CNN specifically.
- _RPM 10y agoWhy is voting actually hard to do? Even though we're so encouraged to vote, there is a lot of red tape. For example, depending on your street address, you may have to vote at a garden variety pick of a building. At my university, I couldn't vote in building A because my apartment was on street X. I ultimately was not able to vote today because it was actually _hard_ to vote.
- coderdude 10y agoFreedom isn't easy. Jokes aside, you're overstating the difficulty to vote. You couldn't vote today because you couldn't pick the building to vote at?
- afterburner 10y agoIt's hard in the US.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- mattnumbe 10y agoDo you watch Last Week Tonight? People used to use Monday as a travel day to vote on Tuesday. It may not be so easy now, but they're trying to make it _easier_
- nradov 10y agoWell if you're too lazy to walk across the street then just vote by mail.
- davidw 10y agoI need a drink. Or three :-/
- angerman 10y agoAccording to the nytimes it looks like the following right now: - President: Democrats (72%), - Senate (76%) and House (>95%): Republicans Is this a good outcome for a democracy? And if so, why? Wouldn't this mean that the system is effectively gridlocked?
- jdavis703 10y agoIdeally politicians would be adults and work out deals, like in the old days. Or maybe this is why most democracies have parliamentary systems.
- andars 10y agoI'm not convinced that such "old days" ever existed. I'm open to the idea, but the more I learn of history, the more it seems like the deals were the exception, not the rule. The system was designed from the beginning to make things difficult.
- flukus 10y agoMaybe survivorship bias? We hear about the deals that were made but not all the ones that fell through.
- andars 10y agoI think you are onto something with this. I like to consider all the compromises in the antebellum United States. They show up in the history books as great legislative successes, but in the end, a half century of dispute came down to a war.
- drcode 10y agoAs someone who feels that most times new government initiatives have a net negative impact, a gridlocked system sounds like a decent outcome, all things considered.
- krapp 10y ago
- miguelrochefort 10y agoTrump wins. GG.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- adamconroy 10y agothe necks got off their sundecks it seems
- up_so_floating 10y agoThis sort of rhetoric is precisely what inspires people to vote for Trump.
- Mikeb85 10y agoAmong other things... There's real dissatisfaction among the working class which inspired people to support both Bernie and Trump, and to vote against the status quo.
- ohwello 10y agoI'm not satisfied being in the top decile of historical human well-being, let's shake things up and take a shot at some reversion to the mean.
- up_so_floating 10y agoIt makes much more sense when you consider that the average frame of reference is on the order of tens of years, not tens of thousands.
- tomp 10y agoBut the problem is, they remember that they used to live better just a few years ago, while simultaneously seeing others (political and financial elites) getting richer and richer. That gives even myself a fundamental feeling of unfairness, even though as a programmer I'm far from Trump's target demographic (although still working class).
- emp_zealoth 10y agoI like how none of the charts actually match another
- keithnz 10y agoWhy isn't the president decided by the percentage of votes? Seems to me, there are a lot voters whose vote essentially are useless? I kind of understand the house and senate being more regional representation, but the president kind of represents all Americans, no?
- up_so_floating 10y agoYou are not alone; many Americans have the same question.
- stass 10y agoAnd the answer can be easily found in e.g. Federalist papers and even Wikipedia.
- Someone 10y agoI would also hope (I would write 'expect', but I am a bit cynical about the quality of US education) this was taught in elementary school.
- tedunangst 10y agoPeople are also inclined to forget things they don't like.
- Someone 10y agoForget or deny to know? For people living in the USA, forgetting that must be quite a challenge; every four years, there's half a year of real reality tv, extensively covered all over the news, to remind them of it.
- symlinkk 10y agoIf the answer is so obvious then just post it
- ajhofmann 10y agoAside from the obviously fake jittering gauges, it seems like whenever I reset the page the pointer goes to about 68% and then after 5-10 seconds jumps to 77%. Not sure if it's caching a number and then updating or supposed to make me stay on the page.
- 551199 10y agoFlorida for Trump. Trump is the new President! Have a look at https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald to see what kind of people voted for Trump. MAGA! Edit: Downvote all you want doesn't change the outcome :)
- up_so_floating 10y agoI went to a Trump rally recently and found it truly unbelievable. Thousands of people, all demographics seemingly represented, lined up for hours despite the cold, dark night and horrible parking conditions. Trump was over two hours late, and the rally did not end until past 1am, but the energy and general goodwill towards each other persisted the entire time.
- 551199 10y agoYes! It doesn't matter what sex, color, sexual orientation or if we agree with everything - we are UNITED! This is a movement. Establishment vs anti-Establishment. People over globalism.
- flukus 10y agoI like the sentiment. The question now becomes "do you think Trump will follow through?".
- 551199 10y agoA billionaire who could have taken it easy for his later years. I genuinely believe he sees the country is a mess and he wants to help. What he has gone through to win is unbelievable. Probably he gets some initiatives through and rest is politics. Likely D & R try to block his drain the swamp initiatives. In 'Art of the Deal' Trump outlines the way he negotiates. Taking extreme position and coming down.
- wyldfire 10y ago"People over globalism" sounds like code for "protectionism". You can't give everyone back their large-wage-unskilled-labor jobs with tariffs. "Commerce with all nations, alliance with none, should be our motto." -Thomas Jefferson
- mcphilip 10y agoIt's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.
- M_Grey 10y agoThen you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.
- morgante 10y agoWhere is there to "get out" to though? Economically the US has been outperforming the rest of the world recently. I'm especially worried because the developer job market is a lot worse outside the US than inside it. I genuinely don't know where to go (recession seems inevitable).
- tedmiston 10y agoCanada, Australia, New Zealand...
- danthejam 10y agoCan't people just decide to create a new SV somewhere and do it? It's just people you need to move.
- flukus 10y agoWhy make a new one and not secede?
- Inconel 10y agoI'm not particularly well informed on the actual logistics of mounting a secession from the rest of the US, although at the very least I would imagine securing water rights would itself be a significant challenge for SV, but I very much doubt the "disruptors" in SV have the wherewithal to stomach such an endeavor.
- SuperManfred 10y agoThe season finale of the USA, representative democracy is in a bubble and the bust is inevitable.
- andars 10y agoMeh. The United States has been through some pretty rough times. It is, of course, impossible to predict the future by looking at the past, but it seems unlikely that this is anywhere near the "season finale".
- ant6n 10y agoDefinitively season finale. But it's already renewed for another season.
- protomyth 10y agoThis is rather mild considering some of the previous elections. Heck, this probably won't even be decided by the House.
- humanrebar 10y agoOn the other hand, the USA has contentious elections on a regular basis with basically no violence. That's the real strength of representative democracy.
- majewsky 10y agoMy guess is that we're headed towards the season finale, but only in a few years. The left already had their moment of huge disappointment (when Obama was elected for "Change", and was not able to actually change anything). Now the right will have the same experience as they far overestimate Trump's ability to follow through on his proposals (e.g. fighting rampant corruption).
- 0xmohit 10y agoHonest question: Doesn't it get difficult to decide who to vote when you have such choices?
- protomyth 10y agoI voted 3rd party to try to get the Libertarians above the % threshold on matching funds. It worked in 1992 but was squandered in 1996 by Perot's party. I was hoping it might work again with a party not built around one man. Sadly, the Libertarians did everything in their power to screw this one up too.
- themantalope 10y agoLibertarians had a real chance to stand out as a actual alternate response to the static and predictable policy stances of the Dems and Repubs. However, Gary Johnson struck out badly on several occasions, especially when it came to his knowledge of international politics. And that weird interview when his tongue just stopped working for 30 seconds but he kept on talking.
- protomyth 10y agoYep, they could picked much better. Plus, his VP did him no favors.
- protomyth 10y agoI leave work and I see Clinton is the probable winner. I drive home, get some dinner, and I get a text from the WSJ that stock futures are crashing because Trump might win?!? What the friggin hell pollsters? I get the feeling some explaining on the part of the newspapers and new networks is in order.
- 3apo 10y agoFor poll statistics this is like cigarettes not causing cancer moment
- tedunangst 10y agoWell, the reason we still have the election instead of just polling people is because the polls aren't always accurate.
- Jtsummers 10y agoPolls don't tell you who will vote. 60% of a state may be for one candidate, but if only 80% of them go out to vote, the other candidate will win. That's what we're seeing here today.
- tedunangst 10y ago80% turnout. Hahaha.
- Jtsummers 10y agoFair, that would be way too high. I was really meaning to reference relative turnout for each candidate. That is, which party or candidate is better at actually getting their voters to do their job and vote.
- the_duke 10y agoIf any mod is reading this, I think it may be smart to close this thread down, since it will spiral into political drama very soon. (I assume their will be a post discussing the result...)
- 75j 10y agoThis thread is very civil so far. I complained recently that political discussions are too easily suppressed on HN, and dang's response was that they inevitably veer into flame wars, and that preemptively flagging political threads is necessary / ok. I hope this thread continues to disprove that, since HN is an important place for political discussion to be happening.
- the_duke 10y agoI love rational political discourse, but there are plenty of places where you can discuss those things on the web. I rather enjoy that the mods apparently want to keep those topics a bit out of the limelight and focus on technical subjects.
- sverige 10y agoWhat's wrong with political drama? And I don't see any here yet, still pretty much the usual.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- Analemma_ 10y agoAsk HN: who's hiring overseas?
- bby 10y agodamn boys we out
- ChuckMcM 10y agoOne thing is for certain, political strategy is never going to be the same.
- threesixandnine 10y agoAt this time we still cannot be sure who will win but all this to me looks like a big fuck you. It looks like a middle finger and it shows how disconnected media moguls, establishment, bureaucracy and "righteous" leftists-democracts are with the people on the ground. It went so far that people who would vote for Trump lied in polls just so that they don't receive strange looks or something worse. That is the fear above mentioned "establishment" instilled into people. And it's not just US... The meltdown of the "media" and shock is just pure funny. Let's forget about all the controversy around Clinton family. I will just leave this[0] here. [0]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1582795/Hillary-Clintons-Bosnia-sniper-story-exposed.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1582795/Hillary-Cl...
- ant6n 10y agoBernie was leftist. Clinton, not so much. It's strange, as an outside observe I see hate spewed against giant swaths of the population (the 'establishment', the 'leftists', the muslims, the hispanics, the blacks or whatever) from Trump supporters. But those same people keep complaining about the hate they perceive from the left or whatever. It's bizarre. Are people supposed to embrace the racism, sexism and bigotry?
- m_mueller 10y agoI think people have more problems with a candidate trying to shut down uncomfortable opinions through the back door than with a candidate who's openly sexist and xenophobic.
- ant6n 10y agoOn the face of it, this statement makes no sense. Would you mind to elaborate?
- flukus 10y agoAnyone supporting trump is getting labeled a racist, misogynist, xenophobe. We've seen what happens to to people like Thiel and Eich, people try to get them black balled from the industry because they dare to disagree. Then someone openly flouting this "PC ideology" you've been getting increasingly frustrated by comes along they look quite appealing.
- sbuttgereit 10y agoIt's interesting looking at the way some of the prediction markets behaved through this cycle. Up until results started coming in, sites like predictit.org were all "predicting" overwhelming Clinton victory. That so far has clearly not panned out. I think it says that these prediction markets aren't so good at actually predicting anything: all they really do is sort of act as a barometer of how media narratives influence popular thought on certain subjects. I do expect that they will correlate with outcomes better than 50/50... but not so much so that the "wisdom of crowds" line is really justified.
- Animats 10y agoDow futures down 752. Canada's immigration site down. The Trump transition team, in rented office space in Washington, just became very important. They're Trump's HR department, and have to recruit the several thousand people the President gets to appoint. Because Trump isn't tightly connected to the "Republican establishment", the usual suspects aren't in line for those jobs. So where do they come from? Business? Will Peter Thiel go to Washington? Secretary of Commerce, perhaps?
- fgandiya 10y agoAny suggestions on a country to start a career in tech. I was considering the US, but now I'm changing my mind.
- joeguilmette 10y agoThe internet. Live somewhere cheap that you enjoy. Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe are favorites.
- boulos 10y agoSigh. Since nobody has mentioned it (yet), but we wouldn't be having this conversation if we had Runoff Voting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting).
- satysin 10y ago5am here in the UK. This is just insane to watch.
- Damian_Reloaded 10y agoWell I think I've lost the little shatters of respect I had left for the United States. I do wish you can get out of this mess unharmed though.
- AKifer 10y agoMakes me laughing all these predictions and poll pre-election giving an advantage to Hillary, and suddenly the odds were flipping around. This gives a clear lessons to all these politicians who used to manipulate the media and the statistics. I feel sad for all these people who did their best to stop the big wave. Trump literally won the silent majority.