11 ms·

> "I also happen to know a lot of the people who bought a heavily discounted Tesla in Q3 feel kind of burned that right at the beginning of Q4 Tesla announced t

by usaphp 10y ago

> "I also happen to know a lot of the people who bought a heavily discounted Tesla in Q3 feel kind of burned that right at the beginning of Q4 Tesla announced the new Autopilot hardware (that isn't retrotfitable on old vehicles). " Wow I guess this is the best proof of how Tesla is really changing the way auto owners think, this is something that wasn't unthinkable before Tesla and their over the air updates. Can you imagine a BMW owner complaining that his 2015 model does not have stuff that new 2017 models will get??

tw04 10y ago
No, but I can imagine a BMW owner complaining that the 2016 model came out 3 weeks after he bought his 2015, with no notice from BMW, the sales guy, or the press. And that the 2016 model came with a bunch of new features he really wanted and would've been willing to pay for.
- eanzenberg 10y ago
  You sure? Cause in this analogy, the 2015 model was at a serious discount while the 2016 has no discount at all.
  - tw04 10y ago
    I'm sure. It's one thing to be told "Hey, there's a new model right around the corner. But we have this guy on a steep discount to clear out inventory." vs. "Hey, we have this great sale going on. What, new model? Naww, we are just having a sale!!" The incumbent MFG's literally have "new inventory" sales on their last-years model to clear out inventory. They let you know well in advance that a new car is coming with new features so you can make an informed decision.
    - Anasufovic 10y ago
      I think we know which path leads to better sales.
      - kmonsen 10y ago
        And which path leads to buyers remorse.
        Anasufovic 10y ago
        It's similar to iPhones, countless complaints yet those same people keep buying them.
        Vik1ng 10y ago
        Really? iPhones seem to have somewhat predictable cycles. I have owned 4 and every time I pretty much knew when a new one would come out.
        rblatz 10y ago
        iPhone 7s or maybe iPhone 10 will ship around September 20th 2017.
      - usrusr 10y ago
        Both, depending on where in the company lifecycle the sales happen. The upstart, by virtue of simply not yet having that many potential repeat customers around, is targeting first time buyers. The goodwill created by having as little obsolescence as possible far outweighs the extra sales they might get through it. This tradeoff changes significantly once a company is established and the number of potential repeat customers is high. Now it's always a balance between repeat sale likelihood and repeat sale cycle duration. Different forms of obsolescence have different effects in different markets. E.g. unlike smartphone makers, car manufacturers tread very carefully when it comes to longevity. Red book value and all that. So what do they do? They have perfected the generational model update cycle. New generation cars are literally designed to make the predecessor look old, because that is the most acceptable repeat sale driver. Tesla just isn't there yet.
    - taneq 10y ago
      > It's one thing to be told "Hey, there's a new model right around the corner. But we have this guy on a steep discount to clear out inventory." Is this not what "hey this 1-2 year old model is on super duper sale right now, it's really cheap, you should buy it!" means? Is a steep discount on older stock not always code for "better shift these before new model comes out"? You see Apple fanboys fall for this one every time, too. "Yay I got a new iPhone 5 last week and it was SO CHEAP, I'm a genius... wait wtf they just announced the iPhone 6."
      - vsl 10y ago
        “Fanboys” don’t, they’re well aware a new iPhone is coming in September. And no, Apple doesn’t lower old iPhone prices until after the new is on sale.
- balls187 10y ago
  Doesn't BMW update models roughly on the same schedule every year?
  - usaphp 10y ago
    No, there is no "schedule every year": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_5_Series https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_5_Series
    - balls187 10y ago
      There is a difference between the platform update, and model year updates.
  - jeffwilcox 10y ago
    Yes, the manufacturing gets reset with very minor updates, but nothing too major. It's tough because if you are custom ordering a car mid-year there's a question as to whether to wait for a production allocation in the new model year or not.
- usaphp 10y ago
  I doubt any auto dealer's sales person will gamble to let a customer know that he should not buy the car right now and he should wait for later...they have bonuses to collect, and the faster they move old inventory the better bonuses are.
  - komali2 10y ago
    I thought Tesla doesn't sell through dealers? edit: I'm absolutely positive I'm missing the joke here
    - taneq 10y ago
      The fact that they 'don't sell through dealers' just means that they are the dealer. All of the usual sales guff still applies.
      - komali2 10y ago
        So that's what I mean - I thought there was no opportunity to haggle for a Tesla - they're a shop and the price is what it is. I thought?
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    This might be true if you think that all salespeople are scumbags and that the Internet doesn't exist as a source of information on future models.
- duaneb 10y ago
  Even in the case the 2015 model was heavily discounted? Seems like a classic deprecation strategy.
  - NotSammyHagar 10y ago
    They don't reduce prices on "last year's car" unless its been driven as a demonstrator. There were scattered rumors of a few cars being discounted - Tesla said we shouldn't ever do that but it seems a few places did it. There's never been heavy discounting.
- Retra 10y ago
  New models of cars come out every year. It seems something easy to be unsympathetic about; Nostradamus could have predicted that new cars with new features are right around the corner. That's the perpetual status quo.
- will_hughes 10y ago
  > no notice from BMW, the sales guy, or the press Tesla has done this for a long while. Newer larger battery pack options, newer interior and tech package options, and completely new performance and configuration options (insane, dual motor, and autopilot 1.0 all hit at once) While there wern't announcements ahead of time what was coming, there were often advance notice that there was an announcement coming, and even when there wasn't - there was a big period of quiet from Tesla leading up to it. For Autopilot 2.0 everyone knew it was coming for at least the Model 3 launch (Elon said as much at the Model 3 announcement), they just brought it forward. It is really no different to what happens to customers for a bunch of other tech companies. Canon sure doesn't tell anyone when their new models are coming out - you know it'll probably happen at a major trade show, but only if you're someone that follows that kind of thing. The average customer at their camera shop isn't going to have the sales guy say "Hey, wait a week and we'll have the next version available."
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    Canon sure doesn't tell anyone when their new models are coming out Big difference between buying a camera and buying a car.
    - will_hughes 10y ago
      Depends entirely on perspective - for a student just getting into photography, buying a DSLR from Canon is pretty evenful and a significant portion of their income/savings. For a young professional, buying a $35k car is probably just as eventful and significant to their savings/expenditure.
  - vsl 10y ago
    Yes, they keep doing it, and if you pay close attention to Tesla, you’re aware of it. You’re also aware of rumors of AP2 coming. If you don’t follow Tesla news, you’re in for a surprise. Regardless, I think it’s a fair critique: buyer’s remorse is a real thing with Tesla. It’s one thing to buy a $3000 computer from Apple and have it replaced with a much better one the next week, it’s another to buy a $100K car and have a major improvement two weeks later.
- NotSammyHagar 10y ago
  I can see why that would be irritating. But they did it the last two years - announce updates in Oct/Nov. And they will do it again next year. The difference from regular cars is there's not such a long lead time between announcement and delivery, it just kind of hits the market right after. They are going for a cell phone kind of experience, where it's continually improving.
- jandrese 10y ago
  Can you image going to a BMW dealership and having the salesguy tell you "You shouldn't buy this car, we have new ones coming out in two weeks"?
sergers 10y ago
I am complaining about my recently purchased 2016 Mercedes e-class doesn't include similar autopilot features as 2017 e-class. Check :)
- vinay427 10y ago
  Correct me if I misunderstood your comment, but I'm not sure how that's relevant. The point here was that Tesla's upgrades were seemingly random and unannounced, leaving buyers unsure of whether to take advantage of a discount or whether it was a "trap." In my experience with conventional car companies one can usually ask the company or read postings on when the next model year will be released, but minor changes are typically not made at random times.
zippergz 10y ago
I take it you don't spend a lot of time on car forums. People complain about this kind of stuff all the time.
azernik 10y ago
It's actually a very Apple strategy - discount the old iPhone, the fans realize a new one is in the pipeline but nothing's announced, and then the new one is finally released.
- abhorrence 10y ago
  But the iPhone is predictably released each year, so I'm not sure this is really the same.
  - azernik 10y ago
    But differing times of year. So fans use the discounts as a leading indicator of releases on the month to 2 month scale.
- gruturo 10y ago
  The iPhone is on an extremely predictable release cycle. Especially fans would absolutely know that one comes around the last week of September every year. This scheduling got changed only _once_ (moved from June to September), and this was not kept secret.
tempestn 10y ago
It's strange from the other side too. With technology it's normal to be able to get updates, but for new tech to eventually come out that makes the old stuff obsolete. A clear sign that this is about to happen is... deep discounts on the existing product.
NotSammyHagar 10y ago
For the past 2 years they also announced new stuff at the October/November boundary. 2 years ago, it was the autopilot hardware with the camera in the front and radar. Cars before Nov 2014 didn't have the camera in the front (some of the them had the front radar). It was obvious to anyone paying attention that this is the time frame when they announce updates.
gambiting 10y ago
I am actually complaining quite a lot that my 2016 Mercedes does not have(and probably won't have the option to retrofit) Android Auto compatibility, while the 2017 model has it. It's literally the same head unit, with a firmware upgrade - it pisses me off.
luca_ing 10y ago
> Can you imagine a BMW owner complaining that his 2015 model does not have stuff that new 2017 models will get?? I am complaining, at least inwardly :-)

by usaphp 10y ago

tw04 10y ago

No, but I can imagine a BMW owner complaining that the 2016 model came out 3 weeks after he bought his 2015, with no notice from BMW, the sales guy, or the press. And that the 2016 model came with a bunch of new features he really wanted and would've been willing to pay for.

eanzenberg 10y ago
You sure? Cause in this analogy, the 2015 model was at a serious discount while the 2016 has no discount at all.
- tw04 10y ago
  I'm sure. It's one thing to be told "Hey, there's a new model right around the corner. But we have this guy on a steep discount to clear out inventory." vs. "Hey, we have this great sale going on. What, new model? Naww, we are just having a sale!!" The incumbent MFG's literally have "new inventory" sales on their last-years model to clear out inventory. They let you know well in advance that a new car is coming with new features so you can make an informed decision.
  - Anasufovic 10y ago
    I think we know which path leads to better sales.
    - kmonsen 10y ago
      And which path leads to buyers remorse.
      - Anasufovic 10y ago
        It's similar to iPhones, countless complaints yet those same people keep buying them.
        Vik1ng 10y ago
        Really? iPhones seem to have somewhat predictable cycles. I have owned 4 and every time I pretty much knew when a new one would come out.
        rblatz 10y ago
        iPhone 7s or maybe iPhone 10 will ship around September 20th 2017.
    - usrusr 10y ago
      Both, depending on where in the company lifecycle the sales happen. The upstart, by virtue of simply not yet having that many potential repeat customers around, is targeting first time buyers. The goodwill created by having as little obsolescence as possible far outweighs the extra sales they might get through it. This tradeoff changes significantly once a company is established and the number of potential repeat customers is high. Now it's always a balance between repeat sale likelihood and repeat sale cycle duration. Different forms of obsolescence have different effects in different markets. E.g. unlike smartphone makers, car manufacturers tread very carefully when it comes to longevity. Red book value and all that. So what do they do? They have perfected the generational model update cycle. New generation cars are literally designed to make the predecessor look old, because that is the most acceptable repeat sale driver. Tesla just isn't there yet.
  - taneq 10y ago
    > It's one thing to be told "Hey, there's a new model right around the corner. But we have this guy on a steep discount to clear out inventory." Is this not what "hey this 1-2 year old model is on super duper sale right now, it's really cheap, you should buy it!" means? Is a steep discount on older stock not always code for "better shift these before new model comes out"? You see Apple fanboys fall for this one every time, too. "Yay I got a new iPhone 5 last week and it was SO CHEAP, I'm a genius... wait wtf they just announced the iPhone 6."
    - vsl 10y ago
      “Fanboys” don’t, they’re well aware a new iPhone is coming in September. And no, Apple doesn’t lower old iPhone prices until after the new is on sale.
balls187 10y ago
Doesn't BMW update models roughly on the same schedule every year?
- usaphp 10y ago
  No, there is no "schedule every year": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_5_Series https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_5_Series
  - balls187 10y ago
    There is a difference between the platform update, and model year updates.
- jeffwilcox 10y ago
  Yes, the manufacturing gets reset with very minor updates, but nothing too major. It's tough because if you are custom ordering a car mid-year there's a question as to whether to wait for a production allocation in the new model year or not.
usaphp 10y ago
I doubt any auto dealer's sales person will gamble to let a customer know that he should not buy the car right now and he should wait for later...they have bonuses to collect, and the faster they move old inventory the better bonuses are.
- komali2 10y ago
  I thought Tesla doesn't sell through dealers? edit: I'm absolutely positive I'm missing the joke here
  - taneq 10y ago
    The fact that they 'don't sell through dealers' just means that they are the dealer. All of the usual sales guff still applies.
    - komali2 10y ago
      So that's what I mean - I thought there was no opportunity to haggle for a Tesla - they're a shop and the price is what it is. I thought?
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  This might be true if you think that all salespeople are scumbags and that the Internet doesn't exist as a source of information on future models.
duaneb 10y ago
Even in the case the 2015 model was heavily discounted? Seems like a classic deprecation strategy.
- NotSammyHagar 10y ago
  They don't reduce prices on "last year's car" unless its been driven as a demonstrator. There were scattered rumors of a few cars being discounted - Tesla said we shouldn't ever do that but it seems a few places did it. There's never been heavy discounting.
Retra 10y ago
New models of cars come out every year. It seems something easy to be unsympathetic about; Nostradamus could have predicted that new cars with new features are right around the corner. That's the perpetual status quo.
will_hughes 10y ago
> no notice from BMW, the sales guy, or the press Tesla has done this for a long while. Newer larger battery pack options, newer interior and tech package options, and completely new performance and configuration options (insane, dual motor, and autopilot 1.0 all hit at once) While there wern't announcements ahead of time what was coming, there were often advance notice that there was an announcement coming, and even when there wasn't - there was a big period of quiet from Tesla leading up to it. For Autopilot 2.0 everyone knew it was coming for at least the Model 3 launch (Elon said as much at the Model 3 announcement), they just brought it forward. It is really no different to what happens to customers for a bunch of other tech companies. Canon sure doesn't tell anyone when their new models are coming out - you know it'll probably happen at a major trade show, but only if you're someone that follows that kind of thing. The average customer at their camera shop isn't going to have the sales guy say "Hey, wait a week and we'll have the next version available."
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  Canon sure doesn't tell anyone when their new models are coming out Big difference between buying a camera and buying a car.
  - will_hughes 10y ago
    Depends entirely on perspective - for a student just getting into photography, buying a DSLR from Canon is pretty evenful and a significant portion of their income/savings. For a young professional, buying a $35k car is probably just as eventful and significant to their savings/expenditure.
- vsl 10y ago
  Yes, they keep doing it, and if you pay close attention to Tesla, you’re aware of it. You’re also aware of rumors of AP2 coming. If you don’t follow Tesla news, you’re in for a surprise. Regardless, I think it’s a fair critique: buyer’s remorse is a real thing with Tesla. It’s one thing to buy a $3000 computer from Apple and have it replaced with a much better one the next week, it’s another to buy a $100K car and have a major improvement two weeks later.
NotSammyHagar 10y ago
I can see why that would be irritating. But they did it the last two years - announce updates in Oct/Nov. And they will do it again next year. The difference from regular cars is there's not such a long lead time between announcement and delivery, it just kind of hits the market right after. They are going for a cell phone kind of experience, where it's continually improving.
jandrese 10y ago
Can you image going to a BMW dealership and having the salesguy tell you "You shouldn't buy this car, we have new ones coming out in two weeks"?

sergers 10y ago

I am complaining about my recently purchased 2016 Mercedes e-class doesn't include similar autopilot features as 2017 e-class. Check :)

vinay427 10y ago
Correct me if I misunderstood your comment, but I'm not sure how that's relevant. The point here was that Tesla's upgrades were seemingly random and unannounced, leaving buyers unsure of whether to take advantage of a discount or whether it was a "trap." In my experience with conventional car companies one can usually ask the company or read postings on when the next model year will be released, but minor changes are typically not made at random times.

zippergz 10y ago

I take it you don't spend a lot of time on car forums. People complain about this kind of stuff all the time.

azernik 10y ago

It's actually a very Apple strategy - discount the old iPhone, the fans realize a new one is in the pipeline but nothing's announced, and then the new one is finally released.

abhorrence 10y ago
But the iPhone is predictably released each year, so I'm not sure this is really the same.
- azernik 10y ago
  But differing times of year. So fans use the discounts as a leading indicator of releases on the month to 2 month scale.
gruturo 10y ago
The iPhone is on an extremely predictable release cycle. Especially fans would absolutely know that one comes around the last week of September every year. This scheduling got changed only _once_ (moved from June to September), and this was not kept secret.

tempestn 10y ago

It's strange from the other side too. With technology it's normal to be able to get updates, but for new tech to eventually come out that makes the old stuff obsolete. A clear sign that this is about to happen is... deep discounts on the existing product.

NotSammyHagar 10y ago

For the past 2 years they also announced new stuff at the October/November boundary. 2 years ago, it was the autopilot hardware with the camera in the front and radar. Cars before Nov 2014 didn't have the camera in the front (some of the them had the front radar). It was obvious to anyone paying attention that this is the time frame when they announce updates.

gambiting 10y ago

I am actually complaining quite a lot that my 2016 Mercedes does not have(and probably won't have the option to retrofit) Android Auto compatibility, while the 2017 model has it. It's literally the same head unit, with a firmware upgrade - it pisses me off.

luca_ing 10y ago

> Can you imagine a BMW owner complaining that his 2015 model does not have stuff that new 2017 models will get?? I am complaining, at least inwardly :-)