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EU's Tusk Says May Expects to Start Brexit Talks by February

51 points by virtualwhys 10y ago

celticninja 10y ago
Part of me wants to be proven wrong on how strong the EU will negotiate but I understand the reason and need for them to do so and I expect they will. I hate that it is likely that remain supporters will get to say "I told you so' in about 2 years time.
- sevenless 10y ago
  If the EU really wanted to hurt the UK they'd declare the following things, in increasing order of nastiness: 1. Britain can swap immigrants for retirees. The residency rights of all Britons in Europe are contingent on residency rights of Europeans in Britain. If Europeans are made to apply for visas, so will every one of the millions of Britons in Spain. 2. Drain the country of talent. Recognizing that millions of British are being unilaterally stripped of their EU citizenship, create a new category of general EU citizens, and allow talented British to apply for instant and permanent residence, conditional on (1) giving up British citizenship and (2) learning the language of their continental locale within the next five years. 3. Tell Scotland that it would accept their continuing as a member of the EU if and only if they applied, as an independent state, while the UK was a member state of the EU. 4. Tell the UK that Article 50 is considered to have been invoked as of now, and they have two years to leave. The last two would be especially funny.
  - Normal_gaussian 10y ago
    1 could happen 2 would be interesting but incredibly unlikely 3 would be voted down by the many countries that have non trivial problems with internal divisions 4 can't happen
    - thomasahle 10y ago
      I take it 4 can't happen because the article has to be invoked by the leaving country. However surely there is another article for just kicking a country out of the union?
      - Normal_gaussian 10y ago
        Presumably. However it is not in the interests of the other nations or the beaurocracy to have the UK leave. The UK is a net contributor to the EU. If the funds it provides are pulled then the other contributors must contribute more or achieve less. The recipients will receive less either way. The UK leaving weakens the EU significantly. It will also weaken the UK, but make no mistake the best interests of most in power are served by drawing this process out. On top of that you have to remember that many other nations have severe EU doubts. Key amongst them are France and the Netherlands, two large contributors. An EU collapse could occur if either or both of these leave. Why would they leave if the UK is kicked out? It's an overtly aggressive move against EU skeptics. Aggressive moves have a long history of causing increased support for the target. Refusing to offer good deals once the UK has left will not be viewed as aggressive.
  - anexprogrammer 10y ago
    3 would cause remarkably high migration north of the border, some would probably try living in tents. Scots would be complaining of all the bloody English. I know they do that already. :) 4 Fairly sure they can't, or would have by now, just because.
  - blibble 10y ago
    since we're into the absurd (3 and 4 are Treaty breaches), here's a satirical list of how the UK could respond to the above, in increasing order of nastiness: 1. The residency rights of all EU citizens in Britain are contingent on residency rights of Britons in the EU. 2. Cut corporation tax to 0% and freeze all contributions to the EU budget with immediate effect 3. Veto everything possible in the Council until exit, and voting against where QMV applies 4. Send half the Royal Navy to the Mediterranean and offer to transport anyone from Northern Africa to the south of Europe, and use the rest to exclude EU ships from British waters of course once you're at 4 you're basically at war, and then maybe May will press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels
    - notahacker 10y ago
      I think you're overestimating the relative size of the Royal Navy...
    - krona 10y ago
      >> ..maybe May will press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels Far too expensive; it would be much cheaper to just switch off the Eurobond clearing houses without warning.
    - pmontra 10y ago
      There isn't much left https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ship... especially the surface fleet. Compare with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_shi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_sh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_sh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_shi...
  - ptaipale 10y ago
    I don't see why Britain would want French or Germans to apply for visas. Hardly a negotiation point. Regarding point 3, to allow Scotland to join, EU would have to renegotiate the 1998 SGP treaty among all member countries, because Scottish budget deficit is worse than what it has ever been in e.g. Greece. That'd be nowadays probably a harder thing than Brexit itself.
  - gakada 10y ago
    5. Indefinitely hold up UK's new WTO schedule, apply huge tariffs to UK goods entering the EU, while it doesn't have MFN status.
- volatilitish 10y ago
  I disagree. Leave voters are already being able to say "I told you so". We haven't had a war yet, we're not in a recession, and the EU is forging ahead with its army, letting Turkey in, etc etc. I very much doubt the EU will exist in 10 years. It will fall, and our friends around Europe will be free again.
  - sevenless 10y ago
    Nothing has changed yet. In what way are Leave voters able to say "I told you so"? I very much doubt the UK will exist in 10 years. It will fall, and Scotland will be free again :-)
    - blibble 10y ago
      a crucial point that many have missed is that independence after a hard brexit would likely result in Scots no longer having the automatic right to work in England. in the previous referendum this wasn't an issue, as the UK and an independent Scotland would both be in the EU together, with the freedom of movement of workers. your average Scot values the ability to work in England much more highly than the ability to work in the EU, so this makes Scottish independence less likely, not more, which explains Sturgeon's recent behaviour.
      - notahacker 10y ago
        Expect it to be a major feature in any second independence referendum campaign. I suspect if Scotland ever seceded they'd fudge automatic rights to work in England and open borders (in return for border checks at Scottish airports and a customs union) in a similar manner as needs to be negotiated for Northern Ireland. Those negotiations aren't going to be fun...
      - hackbinary 10y ago
        The problem that England has with Scotland is all the land that the English aristocracy 'owns' in Scotland.
  - Symbiote 10y ago
pbreit 10y ago
Still doesn't guarantee an actual Brexit. My guess is when all is said in done there either is no Brexit or there's a deal that is very close to staying in the Union with a few adjustments. The vote was critical to obtain a negotiating position. I don't see it as the end of the world.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- hackbinary 10y ago
  I'll go along with this.
- hackbinary 10y ago
  I'll go along with this.
- monk_e_boy 10y ago
  This would be a win for everyone, but the EU won't bend.
- Analemma_ 10y ago
  I approve of this plan. Work something out where there's no Brexit, but there are a couple of token, hot-air actions on immigration to convince the Leave voters that Something Is Being Done. That's all they ever wanted anyway; if the options on the referendum had been "Remain", "Leave" and "I don't care, I just want fewer immigrants", Leave would have lost in a landslide.
  - Silhouette 10y ago
    That's all they ever wanted anyway FYI, that's probably not true. We don't know why people voted the way they did, on either side. However, some of the more credible polling suggests that sovereignty was actually the biggest single issue for leave voters (with immigration second).
binarymax 10y ago
Well, this explains the 3.2 pence drop of GBP vs USD today. I'm glad that they are going through with it, even though I voted to stay. Backing down would have been a big signal to the public that it has no voice. At least we can say that democracy is still functioning (partially).
- guelo 10y ago
  The thing about referendum democracy is, if they voted again today the result would probably be different. Why is the public's desire from the past more binding than the public's desire today? The timing of referendums is a political game played by the elites to manipulate the results. But you couldn't run the country if there were periodic votes and the public changed their minds back and forth repeatedly. Direct democracy doesn't work for long term planning which is why representative democracy with slow changes in government is the only way to make a modern democracy work.
  - anexprogrammer 10y ago
    A game played by Cameron expecting a coalition government and bugger all chance of needing to call a referendum. Probably going to hasten Scots secession too. A game Cameron wasn't very good at. He now gets the place in history he deserves. Shame everyone outside Westminster suffers though.
    - ptaipale 10y ago
      I don't think you can blame it on just a game by Cameron. There definitely was a strong movement among the voters that wanted the Brexit referendum to take place. You know, in fact so strong that Brexit got a majority of votes.
      - anexprogrammer 10y ago
        No? Let's look how we got here. He boxed himself into a stupid position by betting all on renegotiating UK's place then bringing home none of the things that mattered to their party policies, finishing by tellng the country what a great job he'd done. It was a play to diffuse UKIP and the EU sceptic segment of the party which has been a varying problem for decades. Certainly since Maastricht almost split the party. Referendum wasn't necessary, there was no new treaty, no change in our terms. That's when a referendum may make sense, like fter Lisbon or Maastricht perhaps. Wilson gave us the 1975 referendum on the EEC (Britain's first referendum). That was called because euro sceptics were threatening to split the Labour party. Plus ça change. The 75 campaign had nearly everyone for remain. Tony Benn and Enoch Powell were the main proponents of out - for remarkably similar reasons. Thatcher campaigned hard for remain! All long before anyone aside from Heath and a few FO wonks knew anything about ever closer union and so on, it's just the Common Market. As we've learned since, Heath knew full well what he signed up to. Post Maastricht when realisation of union hit, UKIP and Tory Euro skeptics became more visible, and started to lead to some vote fragmentation. Some of the calls for referendum were actually audible now, and as we went through the Blair years we learned new government by pager and soundbite. This fed the rise of LibDems, Greens and UKIP (probably SNP too), as the electorate became disillusioned with media centric government. Of course many were attracted to the various policies, but a time of plummeting turnouts, and politicians no one trusts, it doesn't matter who you vote for, especially with our electoral system. Remarkably we end up with our only coalition since the war. In an age of government by ideology and Overton Windows, even on scientific and factual matters, the voters wanting a referendum was irrelevant, unless there's rioting in the streets. They sure as heck didn't listen. After Brexit both Johnson and Gove looked ashen. Neither believed they'd win. They had no clue what next. A depressing amount of Brexit voters seemed to regret the morning after or just wanted to make an anti-govt protest. A game good sir. Very badly played as it goes. Just another knee jerk idea so beloved of Cameron. No wonder May made Boris Foreign Secretary - "you broke it, you bloody fix it".
mavdi 10y ago
EU just can't afford to give the UK a good deal since this will start a chain reaction with other dissatisfied countries. Sadly this will only end up being a lose/lose situation.
- throwaway1974 10y ago
  Its a bit deeper than that, freedom of movement of people/goods/services/capital lies at the very root of why the EU was founded Even Norway and Switzerland and Iceland had to compromise to gain access to this market. It would be absolutely hilarious (from a political point of view) if the UK endsup in same position of having to pay into the EU and implement most of the laws without having any say in how its run.
  - Merem 10y ago
    You forgot the most important one: To prevent another war from happening.
  - pyb 10y ago
    Not only is it hilarious, but it's the most likely outcome at this time. None of the alternative 'deals' we often hear proposed are grounded in any kind of reality.
- protomyth 10y ago
  I take it that the idea of fixing why these countries are dissatisfied is not on the table?
  - lucb1e 10y ago
    Satisfying everyone is not possible. Giving everyone the most fair outcome... well, they're politicians, so that's an unlikely scenario too, and even if it was all fair, some would be unhappy. Take the Netherlands. From what I know, we pay more to the EU than we receive in subsidies and stuff, and hopefully trade is making up for that (who knows). Take Spain. If I remember correctly, they're getting more from the EU than they pay, so for them it's a definite win. So if the leaders from these countries go and negotiate, what's fair? Should we share all our wealth next month with the rest of Europe? Sounds unfair towards us. Should we keep it all and not invest in the EU? Also not a great idea. Every penny we pay will make us more unhappy; yet every penny we don't share will make the other party more unhappy. I'm not sure there always are good outcomes. (This is probably one of the reasons why governments and politicians are fairly universally hated.) A similar example could be constructed with the refugees issue. Some countries are being overrun; others only receive as many as those front-line countries send through. The front-line countries want to send as many as possible; we want to get as few as possible. Every extra refugee makes our representatives less happy about the deal and every refugee less makes them less happy about the deal.
hackbinary 10y ago
Reporter/EU Official: When will you trigger Article 50 already? UK Government: Mañana Reporter/EU Official: ¿En Español? UK Government: Sí, en Español. Reportero / Oficial de la UE: ¿Cuándo va a desencadenar el artículo 50 ya? UK Government: Mañana. Reportero / Oficial de la UE: ¿Mañana? UK Government: Sí, Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnyaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnaaaaaaaaa. Reportero / Oficial de la UE: Ah, sí. Mañana.
- hackbinary 10y ago
  Does no one have a sense of humour?
  - JshWright 10y ago
    Maybe I'm missing a reference...? I don't get the joke.
    - RileyKyeden 10y ago
      Same. It's probably aimed at Europeans and references something well-known there.
      - Normal_gaussian 10y ago
        Most Europeans will be confused as most don't know spanish, however translating it you only need to know the reputation of the spanish for being lazy/late.
        Symbiote 10y ago
        I think most Europeans know the words sí, mañana and Español, and can work out what "artículo 50" means.
        Normal_gaussian 10y ago
        I don't think most Europeans know mañana, which is the key to the joke. The others sure.
danieltillett 10y ago
I guess this proves that economic suicide does not have to be rushed decision. The EU is going to make an example of the U.K. When you have interest rates at zero, a large deficit (both current account and governmental), and a political system at war with itself, then it might not be the best time to leave.
- walkingolof 10y ago
  Recruiting all the necessary people to negotiate with the EU (and all deals proxied by EU toward the rest of the world, including the US) do take time, the EU have handled most of this for the UK the last 40 years or so...
  - danieltillett 10y ago
    So even if it was possible in theory to negotiate a decent outcome the UK won't be able to because they have no one to do the negotiation. Leaving everything up to Boris to work out does not sound like a plan.
  - pyb 10y ago
    I'm sure they'll find another excuse to delay article 50, once the negotiators are hired.
- mzw_mzw 10y ago
  >The EU is going to make an example of the U.K. If this supposedly gentle, peace-loving, democratic association of free and independent nations is going to vengefully "make an example" of the UK for trying to leave, then that demonstrates the Leavers are right about its true nature.
- Silhouette 10y ago
  When you have interest rates at zero, a large deficit (both current account and governmental), and a political system at war with itself, then it might not be the best time to leave. The thing is, the position across much of the remaining EU is not so different to that. If the politicians can't get their act together and reach some reasonable compromise, everyone is going to lose out for a while because of Brexit, both UK and remaining EU.
junto 10y ago
Reminds me that I really need to apply to become a German national, so I can hopefully remain here without any hassle when this shit storm kicks off.
- ptaipale 10y ago
  I don't see why you should. Germany has lots of foreign people living there, now even hundreds of thousands who entered illegally in the first place, and still they won't be sent away. A Brit will have no trouble there (or here, I'm in another EU country).
  - Xylakant 10y ago
    Getting a work permit for a non-EU national is a hassle. We just hired a canadian and I can tell you, no employer really wants to go through this. Without a work visa no job (unless your prefer illegal jobs). You might have some luck being registered in the UK and pretending to work remotely as a freelancer, but all in all, you'll have a mess at your hands. Air travel will be risky (might need to show passport, visa), air travel to non-schengen destinations quite impossible. No proper way of getting insurance coverage. Don't get stopped by the police, don't have a car accident, no speeding, ... You certainly can sit tight and never move around - because that's what the illegals do - but I don't think you really want that.
    - ptaipale 10y ago
      We were talking about someone who already lives in Germany and has residence there. Whatever happens in Brexit negotiations, such people will be able to continue as if nothing happened. If they move somewhere else and then want to come back, that will make things more difficult. If this is not the case, then EU has practically reneged on everything it was standing for and I want to leave, too. And even in future there will be Canadians and Brits moving to Germany. (Believe me I know the work permit bureaucracy in my country (Finland); I've been a hiring manager for various non-EU nationals).
      - 10y ago
1ris 10y ago
Has anybody yet plotted the time when article 50 should be triggered against the time of the announcement? First it was immediately. Then it after a few weeks. Then it was after a new PM was found. Then it was later this year. Now it is early next year.
- krona 10y ago
  Actually, the current prime minister announced that Article 50 wouldn't be triggered until 2017 (at the earliest) in a Hustings about 2 weeks after the referendum.
pbarnes_1 10y ago
Article 50 will never be triggered.
- hackbinary 10y ago
  It will be invoked ... Mañana ... :)
cimi_ 10y ago
These lose-lose scenarios make me sad. Does anyone else feel that the "we're paying 4 gold coins but are receiving only 2 platinum bracelets" style arguments are _extremely_ petty? They come from stable societies in which people who are willing to put in the effort are well rewarded and live carefree lives. I don't know if it's just because I'm living right in the middle of the tech bubble and I am empowered to pursue my interests anywhere, but I wish people would be taught that they have no right to feel they own a place just because they were born there. I believe spreading progress is essential for our peaceful survival and maintaining our way of life. The media is actively harming this.
- quirkafleeg 10y ago
  > Does anyone else feel that the "we're paying 4 gold coins but are receiving only 2 platinum bracelets" style arguments are _extremely_ petty? Send me four gold coins; I'll give you two platinum bracelets. Deal?

51 points by virtualwhys 10y ago

Part of me wants to be proven wrong on how strong the EU will negotiate but I understand the reason and need for them to do so and I expect they will. I hate that it is likely that remain supporters will get to say "I told you so' in about 2 years time.

sevenless 10y ago
If the EU really wanted to hurt the UK they'd declare the following things, in increasing order of nastiness: 1. Britain can swap immigrants for retirees. The residency rights of all Britons in Europe are contingent on residency rights of Europeans in Britain. If Europeans are made to apply for visas, so will every one of the millions of Britons in Spain. 2. Drain the country of talent. Recognizing that millions of British are being unilaterally stripped of their EU citizenship, create a new category of general EU citizens, and allow talented British to apply for instant and permanent residence, conditional on (1) giving up British citizenship and (2) learning the language of their continental locale within the next five years. 3. Tell Scotland that it would accept their continuing as a member of the EU if and only if they applied, as an independent state, while the UK was a member state of the EU. 4. Tell the UK that Article 50 is considered to have been invoked as of now, and they have two years to leave. The last two would be especially funny.
- Normal_gaussian 10y ago
  1 could happen 2 would be interesting but incredibly unlikely 3 would be voted down by the many countries that have non trivial problems with internal divisions 4 can't happen
  - thomasahle 10y ago
    I take it 4 can't happen because the article has to be invoked by the leaving country. However surely there is another article for just kicking a country out of the union?
    - Normal_gaussian 10y ago
      Presumably. However it is not in the interests of the other nations or the beaurocracy to have the UK leave. The UK is a net contributor to the EU. If the funds it provides are pulled then the other contributors must contribute more or achieve less. The recipients will receive less either way. The UK leaving weakens the EU significantly. It will also weaken the UK, but make no mistake the best interests of most in power are served by drawing this process out. On top of that you have to remember that many other nations have severe EU doubts. Key amongst them are France and the Netherlands, two large contributors. An EU collapse could occur if either or both of these leave. Why would they leave if the UK is kicked out? It's an overtly aggressive move against EU skeptics. Aggressive moves have a long history of causing increased support for the target. Refusing to offer good deals once the UK has left will not be viewed as aggressive.
- anexprogrammer 10y ago
  3 would cause remarkably high migration north of the border, some would probably try living in tents. Scots would be complaining of all the bloody English. I know they do that already. :) 4 Fairly sure they can't, or would have by now, just because.
- blibble 10y ago
  since we're into the absurd (3 and 4 are Treaty breaches), here's a satirical list of how the UK could respond to the above, in increasing order of nastiness: 1. The residency rights of all EU citizens in Britain are contingent on residency rights of Britons in the EU. 2. Cut corporation tax to 0% and freeze all contributions to the EU budget with immediate effect 3. Veto everything possible in the Council until exit, and voting against where QMV applies 4. Send half the Royal Navy to the Mediterranean and offer to transport anyone from Northern Africa to the south of Europe, and use the rest to exclude EU ships from British waters of course once you're at 4 you're basically at war, and then maybe May will press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels
  - notahacker 10y ago
    I think you're overestimating the relative size of the Royal Navy...
  - krona 10y ago
    >> ..maybe May will press the red button and launch Trident at Brussels Far too expensive; it would be much cheaper to just switch off the Eurobond clearing houses without warning.
  - pmontra 10y ago
    There isn't much left https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Royal_Navy_ship... especially the surface fleet. Compare with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_French_Navy_shi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Italian_Navy_sh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Spanish_Navy_sh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_ships https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_German_Navy_shi...
- ptaipale 10y ago
  I don't see why Britain would want French or Germans to apply for visas. Hardly a negotiation point. Regarding point 3, to allow Scotland to join, EU would have to renegotiate the 1998 SGP treaty among all member countries, because Scottish budget deficit is worse than what it has ever been in e.g. Greece. That'd be nowadays probably a harder thing than Brexit itself.
- gakada 10y ago
  5. Indefinitely hold up UK's new WTO schedule, apply huge tariffs to UK goods entering the EU, while it doesn't have MFN status.
volatilitish 10y ago
I disagree. Leave voters are already being able to say "I told you so". We haven't had a war yet, we're not in a recession, and the EU is forging ahead with its army, letting Turkey in, etc etc. I very much doubt the EU will exist in 10 years. It will fall, and our friends around Europe will be free again.
- sevenless 10y ago
  Nothing has changed yet. In what way are Leave voters able to say "I told you so"? I very much doubt the UK will exist in 10 years. It will fall, and Scotland will be free again :-)
  - blibble 10y ago
    a crucial point that many have missed is that independence after a hard brexit would likely result in Scots no longer having the automatic right to work in England. in the previous referendum this wasn't an issue, as the UK and an independent Scotland would both be in the EU together, with the freedom of movement of workers. your average Scot values the ability to work in England much more highly than the ability to work in the EU, so this makes Scottish independence less likely, not more, which explains Sturgeon's recent behaviour.
    - notahacker 10y ago
      Expect it to be a major feature in any second independence referendum campaign. I suspect if Scotland ever seceded they'd fudge automatic rights to work in England and open borders (in return for border checks at Scottish airports and a customs union) in a similar manner as needs to be negotiated for Northern Ireland. Those negotiations aren't going to be fun...
    - hackbinary 10y ago
      The problem that England has with Scotland is all the land that the English aristocracy 'owns' in Scotland.
- Symbiote 10y ago

pbreit 10y ago

Still doesn't guarantee an actual Brexit. My guess is when all is said in done there either is no Brexit or there's a deal that is very close to staying in the Union with a few adjustments. The vote was critical to obtain a negotiating position. I don't see it as the end of the world.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
hackbinary 10y ago
I'll go along with this.
hackbinary 10y ago
I'll go along with this.
monk_e_boy 10y ago
This would be a win for everyone, but the EU won't bend.
Analemma_ 10y ago
I approve of this plan. Work something out where there's no Brexit, but there are a couple of token, hot-air actions on immigration to convince the Leave voters that Something Is Being Done. That's all they ever wanted anyway; if the options on the referendum had been "Remain", "Leave" and "I don't care, I just want fewer immigrants", Leave would have lost in a landslide.
- Silhouette 10y ago
  That's all they ever wanted anyway FYI, that's probably not true. We don't know why people voted the way they did, on either side. However, some of the more credible polling suggests that sovereignty was actually the biggest single issue for leave voters (with immigration second).

binarymax 10y ago

Well, this explains the 3.2 pence drop of GBP vs USD today. I'm glad that they are going through with it, even though I voted to stay. Backing down would have been a big signal to the public that it has no voice. At least we can say that democracy is still functioning (partially).

guelo 10y ago
The thing about referendum democracy is, if they voted again today the result would probably be different. Why is the public's desire from the past more binding than the public's desire today? The timing of referendums is a political game played by the elites to manipulate the results. But you couldn't run the country if there were periodic votes and the public changed their minds back and forth repeatedly. Direct democracy doesn't work for long term planning which is why representative democracy with slow changes in government is the only way to make a modern democracy work.
- anexprogrammer 10y ago
  A game played by Cameron expecting a coalition government and bugger all chance of needing to call a referendum. Probably going to hasten Scots secession too. A game Cameron wasn't very good at. He now gets the place in history he deserves. Shame everyone outside Westminster suffers though.
  - ptaipale 10y ago
    I don't think you can blame it on just a game by Cameron. There definitely was a strong movement among the voters that wanted the Brexit referendum to take place. You know, in fact so strong that Brexit got a majority of votes.
    - anexprogrammer 10y ago
      No? Let's look how we got here. He boxed himself into a stupid position by betting all on renegotiating UK's place then bringing home none of the things that mattered to their party policies, finishing by tellng the country what a great job he'd done. It was a play to diffuse UKIP and the EU sceptic segment of the party which has been a varying problem for decades. Certainly since Maastricht almost split the party. Referendum wasn't necessary, there was no new treaty, no change in our terms. That's when a referendum may make sense, like fter Lisbon or Maastricht perhaps. Wilson gave us the 1975 referendum on the EEC (Britain's first referendum). That was called because euro sceptics were threatening to split the Labour party. Plus ça change. The 75 campaign had nearly everyone for remain. Tony Benn and Enoch Powell were the main proponents of out - for remarkably similar reasons. Thatcher campaigned hard for remain! All long before anyone aside from Heath and a few FO wonks knew anything about ever closer union and so on, it's just the Common Market. As we've learned since, Heath knew full well what he signed up to. Post Maastricht when realisation of union hit, UKIP and Tory Euro skeptics became more visible, and started to lead to some vote fragmentation. Some of the calls for referendum were actually audible now, and as we went through the Blair years we learned new government by pager and soundbite. This fed the rise of LibDems, Greens and UKIP (probably SNP too), as the electorate became disillusioned with media centric government. Of course many were attracted to the various policies, but a time of plummeting turnouts, and politicians no one trusts, it doesn't matter who you vote for, especially with our electoral system. Remarkably we end up with our only coalition since the war. In an age of government by ideology and Overton Windows, even on scientific and factual matters, the voters wanting a referendum was irrelevant, unless there's rioting in the streets. They sure as heck didn't listen. After Brexit both Johnson and Gove looked ashen. Neither believed they'd win. They had no clue what next. A depressing amount of Brexit voters seemed to regret the morning after or just wanted to make an anti-govt protest. A game good sir. Very badly played as it goes. Just another knee jerk idea so beloved of Cameron. No wonder May made Boris Foreign Secretary - "you broke it, you bloody fix it".

mavdi 10y ago

EU just can't afford to give the UK a good deal since this will start a chain reaction with other dissatisfied countries. Sadly this will only end up being a lose/lose situation.

throwaway1974 10y ago
Its a bit deeper than that, freedom of movement of people/goods/services/capital lies at the very root of why the EU was founded Even Norway and Switzerland and Iceland had to compromise to gain access to this market. It would be absolutely hilarious (from a political point of view) if the UK endsup in same position of having to pay into the EU and implement most of the laws without having any say in how its run.
- Merem 10y ago
  You forgot the most important one: To prevent another war from happening.
- pyb 10y ago
  Not only is it hilarious, but it's the most likely outcome at this time. None of the alternative 'deals' we often hear proposed are grounded in any kind of reality.
protomyth 10y ago
I take it that the idea of fixing why these countries are dissatisfied is not on the table?
- lucb1e 10y ago
  Satisfying everyone is not possible. Giving everyone the most fair outcome... well, they're politicians, so that's an unlikely scenario too, and even if it was all fair, some would be unhappy. Take the Netherlands. From what I know, we pay more to the EU than we receive in subsidies and stuff, and hopefully trade is making up for that (who knows). Take Spain. If I remember correctly, they're getting more from the EU than they pay, so for them it's a definite win. So if the leaders from these countries go and negotiate, what's fair? Should we share all our wealth next month with the rest of Europe? Sounds unfair towards us. Should we keep it all and not invest in the EU? Also not a great idea. Every penny we pay will make us more unhappy; yet every penny we don't share will make the other party more unhappy. I'm not sure there always are good outcomes. (This is probably one of the reasons why governments and politicians are fairly universally hated.) A similar example could be constructed with the refugees issue. Some countries are being overrun; others only receive as many as those front-line countries send through. The front-line countries want to send as many as possible; we want to get as few as possible. Every extra refugee makes our representatives less happy about the deal and every refugee less makes them less happy about the deal.

hackbinary 10y ago

Reporter/EU Official: When will you trigger Article 50 already? UK Government: Mañana Reporter/EU Official: ¿En Español? UK Government: Sí, en Español. Reportero / Oficial de la UE: ¿Cuándo va a desencadenar el artículo 50 ya? UK Government: Mañana. Reportero / Oficial de la UE: ¿Mañana? UK Government: Sí, Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnyaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnaaaaaaaaa. Reportero / Oficial de la UE: Ah, sí. Mañana.

hackbinary 10y ago
Does no one have a sense of humour?
- JshWright 10y ago
  Maybe I'm missing a reference...? I don't get the joke.
  - RileyKyeden 10y ago
    Same. It's probably aimed at Europeans and references something well-known there.
    - Normal_gaussian 10y ago
      Most Europeans will be confused as most don't know spanish, however translating it you only need to know the reputation of the spanish for being lazy/late.
      - Symbiote 10y ago
        I think most Europeans know the words sí, mañana and Español, and can work out what "artículo 50" means.
        Normal_gaussian 10y ago
        I don't think most Europeans know mañana, which is the key to the joke. The others sure.

danieltillett 10y ago

I guess this proves that economic suicide does not have to be rushed decision. The EU is going to make an example of the U.K. When you have interest rates at zero, a large deficit (both current account and governmental), and a political system at war with itself, then it might not be the best time to leave.

walkingolof 10y ago
Recruiting all the necessary people to negotiate with the EU (and all deals proxied by EU toward the rest of the world, including the US) do take time, the EU have handled most of this for the UK the last 40 years or so...
- danieltillett 10y ago
  So even if it was possible in theory to negotiate a decent outcome the UK won't be able to because they have no one to do the negotiation. Leaving everything up to Boris to work out does not sound like a plan.
- pyb 10y ago
  I'm sure they'll find another excuse to delay article 50, once the negotiators are hired.
mzw_mzw 10y ago
>The EU is going to make an example of the U.K. If this supposedly gentle, peace-loving, democratic association of free and independent nations is going to vengefully "make an example" of the UK for trying to leave, then that demonstrates the Leavers are right about its true nature.
Silhouette 10y ago
When you have interest rates at zero, a large deficit (both current account and governmental), and a political system at war with itself, then it might not be the best time to leave. The thing is, the position across much of the remaining EU is not so different to that. If the politicians can't get their act together and reach some reasonable compromise, everyone is going to lose out for a while because of Brexit, both UK and remaining EU.

junto 10y ago

Reminds me that I really need to apply to become a German national, so I can hopefully remain here without any hassle when this shit storm kicks off.

ptaipale 10y ago
I don't see why you should. Germany has lots of foreign people living there, now even hundreds of thousands who entered illegally in the first place, and still they won't be sent away. A Brit will have no trouble there (or here, I'm in another EU country).
- Xylakant 10y ago
  Getting a work permit for a non-EU national is a hassle. We just hired a canadian and I can tell you, no employer really wants to go through this. Without a work visa no job (unless your prefer illegal jobs). You might have some luck being registered in the UK and pretending to work remotely as a freelancer, but all in all, you'll have a mess at your hands. Air travel will be risky (might need to show passport, visa), air travel to non-schengen destinations quite impossible. No proper way of getting insurance coverage. Don't get stopped by the police, don't have a car accident, no speeding, ... You certainly can sit tight and never move around - because that's what the illegals do - but I don't think you really want that.
  - ptaipale 10y ago
    We were talking about someone who already lives in Germany and has residence there. Whatever happens in Brexit negotiations, such people will be able to continue as if nothing happened. If they move somewhere else and then want to come back, that will make things more difficult. If this is not the case, then EU has practically reneged on everything it was standing for and I want to leave, too. And even in future there will be Canadians and Brits moving to Germany. (Believe me I know the work permit bureaucracy in my country (Finland); I've been a hiring manager for various non-EU nationals).
    - 10y ago

1ris 10y ago

Has anybody yet plotted the time when article 50 should be triggered against the time of the announcement? First it was immediately. Then it after a few weeks. Then it was after a new PM was found. Then it was later this year. Now it is early next year.

krona 10y ago
Actually, the current prime minister announced that Article 50 wouldn't be triggered until 2017 (at the earliest) in a Hustings about 2 weeks after the referendum.

pbarnes_1 10y ago

Article 50 will never be triggered.

hackbinary 10y ago
It will be invoked ... Mañana ... :)

cimi_ 10y ago

These lose-lose scenarios make me sad. Does anyone else feel that the "we're paying 4 gold coins but are receiving only 2 platinum bracelets" style arguments are _extremely_ petty? They come from stable societies in which people who are willing to put in the effort are well rewarded and live carefree lives. I don't know if it's just because I'm living right in the middle of the tech bubble and I am empowered to pursue my interests anywhere, but I wish people would be taught that they have no right to feel they own a place just because they were born there. I believe spreading progress is essential for our peaceful survival and maintaining our way of life. The media is actively harming this.

quirkafleeg 10y ago
> Does anyone else feel that the "we're paying 4 gold coins but are receiving only 2 platinum bracelets" style arguments are _extremely_ petty? Send me four gold coins; I'll give you two platinum bracelets. Deal?