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Question/Answer I found interesting: Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful? Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. Wh

by iMuzz 10y ago

Question/Answer I found interesting: Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful? Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect?

milkytron 10y ago
Certainly very interesting, in fact I wrote this down when I heard it. And if you look at the projects he's working on (Renewable energy, cars able to powered by renewable energy, and preserving life outside of Earth), they all affect a great portion of humanity, and have a very large affect.
- soufron 10y ago
  Affect like how? As of today they're useless, except for Tesla who's motivating car automakers to go towards autonomous cars - but they had the tech before.
  - marvin 10y ago
    Tesla's energy storage enables people to use solar energy at night, without the process being a big hassle. If it gets cheap enough, it will make solar power competitive with fossil power in most scenarios. Currently, the battery installations are a cost-competitive alternative to fossil ways of covering peak load. Calling it useless is probably a stretch. Ditto with Tesla's cars; they aren't a drop-in replacement for gasoline cars in all scenarios but I've heard more than one Tesla owner say that they will never buy a gas-powered car again. So obviously that implies greater utility for the person in question than any current gas-powered car.
    - soufron 10y ago
      You're kind of right. Let's say they find the right uses for existing tech that's not being used as it should.
    - jsprogrammer 10y ago
      Are Tesla's energy storage solutions available anywhere outside their vehicles?
      - dv_dt 10y ago
        Yes. Tesla Powerwall, a home battery. https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall
        jsprogrammer 10y ago
        I don't think those are planned to ship until 2018.
        dv_dt 10y ago
        "During the first quarter of 2016, Tesla delivered over 25 MWh of energy storage to customers on four continents. Over 2,500 Powerwalls and nearly 100 Powerpacks were delivered in North America, Asia, Europe, and Africa.[33]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall I don't know if those were still pilot program devices or if they've hit some level of regular production. 2500 units is still a good start.
    - intended 10y ago
      So what happens to the batteries when they go bad or old?
      - collinmanderson 10y ago
        Yes, likely you'd need to get all-new batteries every 10 years[1] or so. (And likely recycle the old ones.) The good news is that batteries are getting about 8% more efficient every year (price per kwh) [2]. So 10 years from now batteries will be 1.08^10 = ~2.15x as efficient [3]. So when you replace them, they'll cost half as much for the same amount of energy storage (and probably half the space too). It's basically Moore's law for batteries except slower. [1] https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall [2] https://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/26/ev-battery-costs-already-probably-cheaper-than-2020-projections/ https://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/26/ev-battery-costs-alread... [3] or is it 1/(.92^10)? That would be 2.3x
  - milkytron 10y ago
    I suppose I should have wrote "will affect". If we end up colonizing Mars, or even getting one person to land on Mars, I think Space X will have been involved in creating competition in the aerospace industry at the least. My point was that his ideas are ones that have potential for huge amounts of change. Whether or not we will see that change is another matter.
    - tempestn 10y ago
      SpaceX could also end up having a huge effect on the availability and affordability of high speed internet access.
  - jklinger410 10y ago
    >except for Tesla who's motivating car automakers to go towards autonomous cars - but they had the tech before. This is enough, no? The same with Space-X...
  - Applejinx 10y ago
    He is quite correct that societies can go backwards. There are many scenarios in which we would have 'the tech' and then end up abandoning and losing it. One simple example would be if one corporation profited more by wrecking 'the tech' of another and blocking its adoption, than the other could profit by furthering it. When it all comes down to money you get those suboptimal outcomes, and in the end somebody cashed in epically, but things were not made. I'm pleased Elon gets this, but it's a chilling thought. We don't have to have MORE stuff, internets, communications etc. just because of Moore's Law, just because it's possible. We can also have progressively less because it's in someone's interest for it to be less.
    - michaelhoney 10y ago
      Yes. Example: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_con...
  - RealityVoid 10y ago
    I find this false. Tesla is mainly a electric car company, not an autonomous car company. Other companies have the same class of capabilities in the market, it's just that Tesla has the good will of the people. I like Tesla, but calling it an autonomous car company is ridiculous.
the8472 10y ago
that's just utilitarianism in action
fchollet 10y ago
The equation should have per-subject weights to modulate the "how many people" part. For instance, if my app helps Mr. Musk be 10% more productive, that's more impactful than helping Mr. Smith be 10% more productive.
- tscizzle 10y ago
  I assume the equation he's talking about already propagates the value to the "leaves", where if the app is boosting a person's productivity, and that person's productivity increases value for a group of people, then it's that final group of people's increased value that is counted toward the original total. And there could be more than 2 layers before you quantify the value without recursing any deeper, of course.
- metaphorm 10y ago
  absurd hero worship. I like Elon Musk just fine, but you're fawning over him. How do you propose we nominate "great persons" for your "equation" anyway?
- i2shar 10y ago
  The weights would be different based on who's assigning them.
- Whitestrake 10y ago
  Hypothetically, this is unnecessary. Assuming that a 10% increase in productivity causes a 10% increase in the impact on people (either in quality or quantity), 10% of Mr. Musk's impact may be greater in absolute terms than 10% of Mr. Smith's. One may debate whether 10% productivity = 10% impact, but if that increase is attributed back to you, there's no need to artificially manipulate the equation.
piedradura 10y ago
I would add another multiplicative factor: the probability that you have success in what you are trying to achieve, if that probability is near zero you effort will be in vain.
- metaphorm 10y ago
  you should read some Taleb on this subject. ignoring low probability outcomes is not a good risk/success model.
  - thr0waway1239 10y ago
    I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book: That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event. I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?
    - piedradura 10y ago
      The problem with low probability outcome events is that when you repeat the same experiment many times that event can happen with high probability.
    - metaphorm 10y ago
      I think you should just read the book(s). They're very well written and enlightening.
    - tim333 10y ago
      I guess a hedge in that case would be to try to arrange things so they come out OK if you miss the goal. Like if you want to be president aim for the fail case being a successful lesser politician. Not sure what Taleb says.
    - spaceknarf 10y ago
      Taleb investment advice: put almost all of your savings in super stable investments, like treasuries. Use the rest to bet on unicorn startups, or highly leveraged options (as long as those options have a limited downside and an unlimited upside!). I'm not quite sure how to apply this to one's career.
Paul_S 10y ago
What about all the people working in marketing, software patent lawyers, drug dealers? You want them to quit their jobs? --- Let me make my point in a less obtuse way. Most people make decisions about their careers based on opportunity and maximising profit. No one becomes a footballer to make the world a better place. This would all be fine as long as the capitalist market rewarded choices that make the world a better place. Obviously it does not and it's not the fault of a footballer that we as a civilisation choose to channel our available resources their way and not towards frivolous play like space exploration. If anyone ever figures out a way to make the free market choose the greater good they will win all the Nobel prizes forever (we won't need Nobel prizes after that).
- leesalminen 10y ago
  'Tis an interesting point. > Drug dealers Perhaps drug dealers (and their suppliers) can implement testing, QA and proper labeling. I'm not totally sure about software patent lawyers. But, deep down, my gut says that if software patent law wasn't to crappy, perhaps the occupation would be perceived in a better light. Maybe they could push for reform from the inside? On the whole, I think every industry can do some introspection on how they can affect more people for the betterment of society. It would do us all some good.
  - Paul_S 10y ago
    Let me make my point in a less obtuse way. Most people make decisions about their careers based on opportunity and maximising profit. No one becomes a footballer to make the world a better place. This would all be fine as long as the capitalist market rewarded choices that make the world a better place. Obviously it does not and it's not the fault of a footballer that we as a civilisation choose to channel our available resources their way and not towards frivolous play like space exploration. If anyone ever figures out a way to make the free market choose the greater good they will win all the Nobel prizes forever (we won't need Nobel prizes after that).
    - karmelapple 10y ago
erjjones 10y ago
> What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect? Translation: The change of something being useful, profitable, or beneficial multiplied by the potential target audience. IMO - What a great measure to determine the scale ability of an idea.
babyrainbow 10y ago
> utility delta I get a feeling that this phrase is going to be popular among Elon fanboys.
purplelobster 10y ago
Wouldn't a better formula be the expected value of the outcome: utility delta * #people * probability of success?

by iMuzz 10y ago

milkytron 10y ago

Certainly very interesting, in fact I wrote this down when I heard it. And if you look at the projects he's working on (Renewable energy, cars able to powered by renewable energy, and preserving life outside of Earth), they all affect a great portion of humanity, and have a very large affect.

soufron 10y ago
Affect like how? As of today they're useless, except for Tesla who's motivating car automakers to go towards autonomous cars - but they had the tech before.
- marvin 10y ago
  Tesla's energy storage enables people to use solar energy at night, without the process being a big hassle. If it gets cheap enough, it will make solar power competitive with fossil power in most scenarios. Currently, the battery installations are a cost-competitive alternative to fossil ways of covering peak load. Calling it useless is probably a stretch. Ditto with Tesla's cars; they aren't a drop-in replacement for gasoline cars in all scenarios but I've heard more than one Tesla owner say that they will never buy a gas-powered car again. So obviously that implies greater utility for the person in question than any current gas-powered car.
  - soufron 10y ago
    You're kind of right. Let's say they find the right uses for existing tech that's not being used as it should.
  - jsprogrammer 10y ago
    Are Tesla's energy storage solutions available anywhere outside their vehicles?
    - dv_dt 10y ago
      Yes. Tesla Powerwall, a home battery. https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall
      - jsprogrammer 10y ago
        I don't think those are planned to ship until 2018.
        dv_dt 10y ago
        "During the first quarter of 2016, Tesla delivered over 25 MWh of energy storage to customers on four continents. Over 2,500 Powerwalls and nearly 100 Powerpacks were delivered in North America, Asia, Europe, and Africa.[33]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall I don't know if those were still pilot program devices or if they've hit some level of regular production. 2500 units is still a good start.
  - intended 10y ago
    So what happens to the batteries when they go bad or old?
    - collinmanderson 10y ago
      Yes, likely you'd need to get all-new batteries every 10 years[1] or so. (And likely recycle the old ones.) The good news is that batteries are getting about 8% more efficient every year (price per kwh) [2]. So 10 years from now batteries will be 1.08^10 = ~2.15x as efficient [3]. So when you replace them, they'll cost half as much for the same amount of energy storage (and probably half the space too). It's basically Moore's law for batteries except slower. [1] https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall [2] https://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/26/ev-battery-costs-already-probably-cheaper-than-2020-projections/ https://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/26/ev-battery-costs-alread... [3] or is it 1/(.92^10)? That would be 2.3x
- milkytron 10y ago
  I suppose I should have wrote "will affect". If we end up colonizing Mars, or even getting one person to land on Mars, I think Space X will have been involved in creating competition in the aerospace industry at the least. My point was that his ideas are ones that have potential for huge amounts of change. Whether or not we will see that change is another matter.
  - tempestn 10y ago
    SpaceX could also end up having a huge effect on the availability and affordability of high speed internet access.
- jklinger410 10y ago
  >except for Tesla who's motivating car automakers to go towards autonomous cars - but they had the tech before. This is enough, no? The same with Space-X...
- Applejinx 10y ago
  He is quite correct that societies can go backwards. There are many scenarios in which we would have 'the tech' and then end up abandoning and losing it. One simple example would be if one corporation profited more by wrecking 'the tech' of another and blocking its adoption, than the other could profit by furthering it. When it all comes down to money you get those suboptimal outcomes, and in the end somebody cashed in epically, but things were not made. I'm pleased Elon gets this, but it's a chilling thought. We don't have to have MORE stuff, internets, communications etc. just because of Moore's Law, just because it's possible. We can also have progressively less because it's in someone's interest for it to be less.
  - michaelhoney 10y ago
    Yes. Example: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_con...
- RealityVoid 10y ago
  I find this false. Tesla is mainly a electric car company, not an autonomous car company. Other companies have the same class of capabilities in the market, it's just that Tesla has the good will of the people. I like Tesla, but calling it an autonomous car company is ridiculous.

the8472 10y ago

that's just utilitarianism in action

fchollet 10y ago

The equation should have per-subject weights to modulate the "how many people" part. For instance, if my app helps Mr. Musk be 10% more productive, that's more impactful than helping Mr. Smith be 10% more productive.

tscizzle 10y ago
I assume the equation he's talking about already propagates the value to the "leaves", where if the app is boosting a person's productivity, and that person's productivity increases value for a group of people, then it's that final group of people's increased value that is counted toward the original total. And there could be more than 2 layers before you quantify the value without recursing any deeper, of course.
metaphorm 10y ago
absurd hero worship. I like Elon Musk just fine, but you're fawning over him. How do you propose we nominate "great persons" for your "equation" anyway?
i2shar 10y ago
The weights would be different based on who's assigning them.
Whitestrake 10y ago
Hypothetically, this is unnecessary. Assuming that a 10% increase in productivity causes a 10% increase in the impact on people (either in quality or quantity), 10% of Mr. Musk's impact may be greater in absolute terms than 10% of Mr. Smith's. One may debate whether 10% productivity = 10% impact, but if that increase is attributed back to you, there's no need to artificially manipulate the equation.

piedradura 10y ago

I would add another multiplicative factor: the probability that you have success in what you are trying to achieve, if that probability is near zero you effort will be in vain.

metaphorm 10y ago
you should read some Taleb on this subject. ignoring low probability outcomes is not a good risk/success model.
- thr0waway1239 10y ago
  I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book: That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event. I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?
  - piedradura 10y ago
    The problem with low probability outcome events is that when you repeat the same experiment many times that event can happen with high probability.
  - metaphorm 10y ago
    I think you should just read the book(s). They're very well written and enlightening.
  - tim333 10y ago
    I guess a hedge in that case would be to try to arrange things so they come out OK if you miss the goal. Like if you want to be president aim for the fail case being a successful lesser politician. Not sure what Taleb says.
  - spaceknarf 10y ago
    Taleb investment advice: put almost all of your savings in super stable investments, like treasuries. Use the rest to bet on unicorn startups, or highly leveraged options (as long as those options have a limited downside and an unlimited upside!). I'm not quite sure how to apply this to one's career.

Paul_S 10y ago

What about all the people working in marketing, software patent lawyers, drug dealers? You want them to quit their jobs? --- Let me make my point in a less obtuse way. Most people make decisions about their careers based on opportunity and maximising profit. No one becomes a footballer to make the world a better place. This would all be fine as long as the capitalist market rewarded choices that make the world a better place. Obviously it does not and it's not the fault of a footballer that we as a civilisation choose to channel our available resources their way and not towards frivolous play like space exploration. If anyone ever figures out a way to make the free market choose the greater good they will win all the Nobel prizes forever (we won't need Nobel prizes after that).

leesalminen 10y ago
'Tis an interesting point. > Drug dealers Perhaps drug dealers (and their suppliers) can implement testing, QA and proper labeling. I'm not totally sure about software patent lawyers. But, deep down, my gut says that if software patent law wasn't to crappy, perhaps the occupation would be perceived in a better light. Maybe they could push for reform from the inside? On the whole, I think every industry can do some introspection on how they can affect more people for the betterment of society. It would do us all some good.
- Paul_S 10y ago
  Let me make my point in a less obtuse way. Most people make decisions about their careers based on opportunity and maximising profit. No one becomes a footballer to make the world a better place. This would all be fine as long as the capitalist market rewarded choices that make the world a better place. Obviously it does not and it's not the fault of a footballer that we as a civilisation choose to channel our available resources their way and not towards frivolous play like space exploration. If anyone ever figures out a way to make the free market choose the greater good they will win all the Nobel prizes forever (we won't need Nobel prizes after that).
  - karmelapple 10y ago

erjjones 10y ago

> What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect? Translation: The change of something being useful, profitable, or beneficial multiplied by the potential target audience. IMO - What a great measure to determine the scale ability of an idea.

babyrainbow 10y ago

> utility delta I get a feeling that this phrase is going to be popular among Elon fanboys.

purplelobster 10y ago

Wouldn't a better formula be the expected value of the outcome: utility delta * #people * probability of success?