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North Korea claims success in fifth nuclear test
- dovdov 10y ago"Great." Oh, wait... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-bans-sarcasm-kim-jong-un-freedom-speech-a7231461.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-ban...
- verroq 10y agoHas North Korea become "too big to fail"?
- azernik 10y agoWell, that, and that and too strategically important to China to fail. However frustrated the DPRK makes them, they still don't want an American-allied Korea on their border.
- gaius 10y agoSerious question: why? What do they envisage happening in that scenario? Korea invading them seems unlikely, they trade with the US all the time, and there have recently been massive American forces on their border in Afghanistan with noone batting an eyelid.
- dermotbrennan 10y agoManchuria is close to Beijing and is a relative easy area in China for armies to travel through. It's not mountainous or particularly forested/swampy. Japan invaded through Manchuria in WW2 so it makes sense for China to have as big a buffer zone as possible in that area. The border between china and afghanistan is very mountainous and very far away from Beijing.
- gaius 10y agoBut China is a strategic nuclear power - the idea that a unified Korea would risk violating their territorial integrity is far-fetched, they are far more likely to be attacked by the North out of desperation!
- speeder 10y agoChina tends to think extremely long term, both in then past and future. For example: one of the most criticized of China behavior, that is the occupation of many parts of mongolian and related lands, is a way to prevent another Khan starting another Yuan dynasty. Similarly China had many wars with Korea, and don't trust them (neither do the Japanese, thus why they don't move a finger to get rid of North Korea either, nevermind blatant racism in Japan, like the fact that nonasians can expect to get citizenship after about 20 years trying, while many second and third generation Koreans still aren't allowed to be citizens)
- bbctol 10y agoChina wants a blue-water navy, and they want to keep US military bases far enough away that a pre-emptive strike is difficult. Their Pacific coast is blocked off by opposed states: South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are protected by the United States, and while the Philippines has slipped into a more complicated situation recently, they're still quite hostile to China. It's stated Chinese military doctrine to work towards securing this "first island chain," and disable US military bases and aircraft carrier groups in the area. This prevents the United States from exerting control through potential pre-emptive strike capability, and in the long run ensures them an easy path to the Pacific.
- ivanhoe 10y agothat and 10+ million N. Korean refugees crossing the border...
- puranjay 10y agoMore like "failed too much to be allowed to fail completely" NK is such a failed state that we keep on propping up its failed regime because no one knows what to do with its 25M citizens
- hkjgkjy 10y agoIs there any way the world could become more peaceful, and we could get rid of the seemingly eternal gun-pointing happening between the USA (+ NATO), China, Russia etc? Curious to hear what possible steps can be taken to calm the worlds warmongerers down further. What are possibilities for the future.
- forgetsusername 10y ago>is there any way the world could become more peaceful The world is becoming more peaceful. And in theory, nuclear weapons make the world more so, which is why these countries pursue them. Despite what the mainstream news likes to report, there's a microscopic probability that the DPRK would attempt to use a nuke offensively.
- pearjuice 10y ago[citation needed]
- forgetsusername 10y ago>[citation needed] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Natur... Now where's your citation to the historical increase in violence?
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- krona 10y agoThe Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined -- Steven Pinker (ISBN: 978-0-670-02295-3)
- Iv 10y agohttp://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/spectacular-video-putting-wwii-deaths-perspective.html http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/spectacular-video-putting-wwii... Skip to 14:00 for the relevant part. The number of casualties in conflicts has going down FAST in the second part of the 20th century. We are in a historical worldwide period of unprecedented peace. The most recent aberrant point in that downward path has been the Iraq war. But even this one pales in comparisons of the horrors of the past.
- butler14 10y agoprobably worthwhile the world powers reminding themselves that policies of nuclear deterrence rely entirely on rational agents
- cmdkeen 10y agoThe DPRK can be thought of as rational in that they follow reason and logic, it may not be the same reason and logic that other world leaders and states follow but that doesn't mean that it isn't there and isn't possible for Western strategists to try and factor that in.
- your_ai_manager 10y agoI would agree that normally governments make geopolitical decisions in a rational ways. But due to governments being emergent systems you have rare events in which individual incentives can line up to make irrational decisions happen. Look at what happened with the Brexit vote for example.
- lordnacho 10y agoWhat's not rational about it? The chances of an externally forced regime change in DPRK just went down by a lot, which is exactly what the regime wanted. Sure they will say some aggressive things from time to time, but it's entirely rational for them to remind everyone that they have these nukes and are willing to use them.
- misja111 10y agoIt can be rational to appear irrational. It is a tactic that is widely used by extortionists; as an extortionist you want to impose as much fear as possible on your opponent that you will execute your threat. And if you're unpredictable that threat looks more scary so your victim might be more willing to pay.
- GunboatDiplomat 10y agoSee Richard Nixon's Madman Theory. >I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, "for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button" and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.
- sidcool 10y agoToday is the Foundation Day of DPRK. Probably their version of fireworks.
- faragon 10y agoThe end for this could come with voluntary incorporation of North Korea as a Chinese new province.
- indubitably 10y agoWhy would NK do that?
- faragon 10y agoBecause of the need.
- s_q_b 10y agoThis is not a bad idea in spirit. However, one seldom mentioned fact is that anti-Han sentiment runs very deep in both Koreas. Transforming North Korea into a true vassal state of China may be the solution, but there will need to be a serious governmental transition in North Korea first.
- s_q_b 10y agoIf the United States' military posture was not so depleted at this point, I would say that it is time to seriously consider a conventional first strike. Right now, North Korea cannot deliver a nuclear payload anywhere. It's one thing to create a nuclear test device, but it's another matter entirely to miniaturize it for delivery. However, if allowed to progress unimpeded, North Korea will soon have missile technology that can reach Japan consistently. Around the same time, their miniaturization project will likely be complete. At that point, other nations will lose the option of intervention. North Korea's government is simply... unstable, in both senses of the word. There is simply no other way to put it. The more closely one examines the country, the more disturbing the picture becomes. They cannot be allowed to have a permanent nuclear deterrent.
- gaius 10y agoI would say that it is time to seriously consider a conventional first strike. NK has its estimated 10000 conventional artillery pieces in range of Seoul - they will pound it to rubble the old-fashioned way. You can (theoretically) intercept a single ballistic missile, but there is no defence against a mass artillery bombardment.
- taneq 10y agoSure there is: Conventional artillery is slow. It'll pound Seoul into rubble given time but if they actually tried it, after the first 30 minutes, one of the superpowers would glass them. Edit: Hmm. You lot make some good points about just how many 'small' hits they could pull off, assuming that each gun emplacement has ammo etc. so I did a bit more research. Seoul Capital Area has an area of ~11,000 kilometers square[0]. Assume a generous affected blast area of roughly a hectare per shell (we're talking about shelling a population center here so you don't have to level every building to have a serious impact) and that's 1.1 million shells (if they're firing with uniform distribution, which they won't be) to seriously damage the city. Assuming a normal distribution where they all aim haphazardly for the CBD and let fly, it's even worse, call it 500k shells at a guess. 10k emplacements, if they have 50 shells each, will deliver this in (as per post below) 8.3 minutes. So yeah, even if it can't "pound Seoul into rubble" it would be a highly undesirable outcome for the South Korean people. I take it back. Conventional artillery isn't slow if you have enough of it. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seoul_Capital_Area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seoul_Capital_Area
- tomelders 10y agoChina needs to put this particular Genie back in it's bottle. Having a mad dog on a leash is a reckless and juvenile diplomatic strategy and we're starting to see that China doesn't have as much control over NK as it pretends to.
- yclept 10y agoDo you not think China is helping NK develop their ballistic missiles and nuclear technology?
- hga 10y agoOne way or another that's pretty well established, when the Khan network fell apart after Gaddafi saw the light after Saddam's capture and surrendered his WMD program to us (and note how we rewarded him...), a key artifact was the plans for a Chinese designed highly enriched uranium implosion device, down to the factory floor level of detail, like apply this much torque to this nut, and use this kind of thread locker (e.g. Loctite in the US). Maybe the PRC counterintelligence guys screwed up, but....
- bcg1 10y agoCommon sense (which probably is not worth much when it comes to international relations) suggests that without China's aid DPRK would quickly collapse. Presumably China does not want to see this happen because re-unification with South Korea would be a possible outcome (although I suspect the South Korean economy would have trouble absorbing the North Korean population without significant aid from the US and "international community"), and that would put a strong US ally right on China's border. In my mind the only peaceful resolution to this situation is a diplomatic agreement with China, which would seem to be exceedingly difficult to achieve without a massive effort on the part of the US. Unfortunately, given the level of rancor and demagoguery against China that is showing itself in US politics at the moment, not to mention provocative actions such as the TPP and Abe's desire to change Japan's constitution to arm itself, the aforementioned peaceful outcome seems unlikely to me.
- vocatus_gate 10y agoI'm working on a research base in Antarctica and we have one of the very few Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) detectors in the Southern hemisphere on our station. It's pretty interesting how fast the detection network can sense and locate a nuclear blast above a certain yield. North Korea is frequently discussed when referencing the effectiveness of the system.
- sidcool 10y agoThat's a cool job! How's a typical day for you?
- vocatus_gate 10y agoPretty varied! I'm the station's network engineer but because of how small it is, we spend a lot of time wearing different hats. I'm also assigned to the Glacier Search and Rescue team, the firefighting SCBA team, and the trauma team. About 60% of my time is spent doing IT work.
- asimuvPR 10y agoDo you keep a blog?
- vocatus_gate 10y agoI don't but I do post some pictures with detailed descriptions to an Imgur album here: http://imgur.com/a/ijX9Q http://imgur.com/a/ijX9Q
- asimuvPR 10y agoThank you.
- kzisme 10y agoAlso interested in reading about your experiences!
- bobedybobbob 10y agoI'm all for the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons but also find it amazing what their scientists can do working with such limited resources.
- eyeueye 10y agoMy oh my ... Look at the double standards of Americans ... Having the largest nuclear arsenal in the world with push button start and they call names when a tiny state, half way around the world, tries to make it's own nuclear deterrent. No surprise that the only country to use Nuclear weapons ever in history is ... drumroll.. USA. Edit: why all the down votes .. Americans scared of facing the truth ... Better hide it under a barrage of down votes ...
- castis 10y agoThe USA isn't constantly talking about wiping other countries off the map. Ignoring historical and current context isn't going to do your argument any favors. For the record, a good amount of us aren't excited that we have them either.
- eyeueye 10y agoHahaha ... Fuck you Sissy girl ...
- castis 10y agoHypocrisy and cowardice doesn't look good on anyone.
- sctb 10y agoYou can't comment like this here, so we've banned this account. If you'd like to read the guidelines and commit to commenting civilly and substantively, you can email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll unban your account if we believe you'll do so. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- throw2016 10y agoThe US is the only country to have used nuclear weapons casually and rationalized it like all other things later. This was a crime against humanity and nothing can change that. It an act of barbarism and savagery unprecedented in human history. Why the second one? And to confirm its absolute disregard for human life since then has proceeded to stir up trouble in dozens of other countries and destroyed millions of lives in pursuit of its own financial interests, the latest victims being Iraq, Libya, Syria and with Iran in crosshairs. Entire regions some just coming out of hundreds of years of destructive colonialism found themselves head first in old world politics of violence and self interest couched in the modern language of human rights, democracy and peace. That's a tally easily of hundreds of millions of lives in disarray or extinguished just from the latest meddling in the middle east purely because of financial interests. But yet all these blatant crimes against humanity for some reason are all ok. Because? Nobody's human rights have been protected, democracy has not been advanced, but 'interests have been secured' on the back of entirely fictional narratives and fabrciated intentions. This is mind boggling. This is perhaps the same kind of self serving rationalization and reckless disregard for human life that advocates first strike against North Korea. If these are the good guys who are the bad guys?
- mineshaftgap 10y agoLimp wristed lefties don't have a lick of sense and will never be in charge of anything except possibly the EU.
- crispyambulance 10y agoI can't help but detect a weird affectation (a combination of proud and pushy) in the voice of the newscaster. I don't know Korean or any Asian language, so I can't tell, is that a normal newscaster voice for North and South Korea?
- eyeueye 10y agoI guess
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- eyeueye 10y agoY o baby
- eyeueye 10y agoI can't help but detect a weird affectation (a combination of proud and pushy) in the voice of the newscaster. I don't know Korean or any Asian language, so I can't tell, is that a normal newscaster voice for North and South Korea? reply
- shafiqissani 10y agoAt this point it is hard to believe this is not US agenda.
- AnimalMuppet 10y agoWhat rational basis do you have for claiming that?
- GarrisonPrime 10y agoA forecast: (1) NK eventually attacks a sovereign nation. Most likely, their nukes will be used as a threat to back up their aggressive actions rather than being actually used. (2) China, at first perhaps tentative and apologetic, eventually joins in with strong anti-NK policies and pressure. (3) NK doubles down, building up its offensive capabilities and maybe launching more attacks. (4) Very sad day for the innocent North Koreans living under the regime. The US, or China, or the UN, or all of the above smash NK into the dirt. (5) Profit.
- verroq 10y agoMore like (1) Continued rattling and blackmail for international aid (2) Eventually becoming a nuclear state that nobody wants to touch cementing itself in perpetuity
- s_q_b 10y agoSince the comparison between North Korea and other dictatorships keeps arising, I feel compelled to note that North Korea is truly an edge case. Nothing in Western democracies, Middle Eastern theocracies, or even African dictatorships comes close to the horror that is North Korea. They torture people for entertainment, without even a pretext. They kidnap children to serve as sex slaves for their leadership. They starve families to the point that parents beat their own children over single grains of rice. North Korea is such an extreme outlier that no other extant nation compares.