7 ms·

Electric Vehicles – It's Not Just About the Car

62 points by hunglee2 10y ago

endswapper 10y ago
This was a good post because the car thing got my attention, but it turned to have a much broader wake of analysis behind it. What do you think about the idea that broad-based, multi-sector automation will remove some of the essential challenges in life, and ultimately weaken cognitive abilities? My logic is that as we increase our conveniences, our requirement for physical exertion diminishes and the average body mass grows. So, will the same thing happen to our minds - without the need to exercise them will their performance diminish? If so, will that create a class of knowers and non-knowers, and if so who is responsible for non-knowers? I read a lot of desperation in the comments here and elsewhere while at the same time believing generally that we live in a golden age (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12373014 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12373014).
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- pm90 10y ago
  We already have a lot of automation and it has hardly lead to a weakening of cognitive abilities. Washing machines, dishwashers etc. On the contrary, it has increased productivity, allowing more people to dedicate their lives towards medical research, specifically cognitive research. Its true that future humans may end up as overweight, wheelchair ridden as depicted in Wall-E. But It can also go the other way. Technology has also made fitness to be very popular, for instance. We won't know until it comes to pass. Evolution has generally favored fitness though (e.g. endorphins are released during exercise) so it seems unlikely that the obesity epidemic will spread everywhere or be so complete.
  - merb 10y ago
    hm... it could also lead to something like Idiocracy. I mean the more technology you have the less you care about old things, like "how to build a building". Just look at how much worse the whole building industry gotten. The try to be cheaper which also comes with the cost of less trained people.
    - rm_-rf_slash 10y ago
      How has the building industry gotten worse? What metrics can be used to evaluate it?
      - nkoren 10y ago
        The Empire State building was completed in 1931. It had 103 floors, took 13 months from start to finish, and cost $637M (adjusted for inflation). 83 years later, in the same city, the Freedom Tower was completed. It had one more floor, but took 102 months to build and cost $4B. Obviously that's only two data points, but it's broadly representative of the general trend. Our capacity to build infrastructure has declined dramatically over the past century. Obviously we're still able to do it, but the costs and timescales have increased by orders of magnitude.
        Eerie 10y ago
        >Obviously that's only two data points, but it's broadly representative of the general trend. NO, IT IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANYTHING. So many things changed between 1931 and 2013, and the circumstances surrounding ESB and 1WTC are so different (9/11, for one) the comparison is utterly meaningless.
        jamiek88 10y ago
        How many deaths and serious injuries in comparison?
        gwright 10y ago
        > According to official records, five people died while constructing the Empire State Building. One was struck by a truck, another fell down an elevator shaft, a third was killed by explosives, a fourth struck by a hoist and the fifth fell from scaffolding. On the other hand it doesn't seem like the Freedom Tower construction had a very good record either (but I couldn't find any info on deaths): > In fact, The News found at least 81 incidents involving dangerous work conditions at the site since construction began in 2003. Through this year, at least 42 of those incidents involved workers falling from a height far enough to seriously injure themselves.
  - Grishnakh 10y ago
    I disagree with the overweight thing. Go to any trendy city in America now and walk around downtown. You'll see a bunch of upper-middle-class people, and none of them are fat. People now spend time doing physical fitness activities that they didn't in decades past. They also eat a lot better; there's more awareness about some foods being unhealthy. In America, we're seeing a divide between the urban culture and the rural culture, where urban (mostly white) people have good economic success mostly, and are healthier, while rural people are going the other way; hang out with rural people sometime and you'll find they generally have terrible health. They eat cheap, crappy food, and they drive everywhere, and don't spend any time exercising. Ultimately, in the farther future, obesity will be cured by medical means. It's not really that complicated, and there's been a lot of research lately into how gut microbes affect it, and it turns out it's enormous. I predict that pretty soon we'll have gut microbe transplants being used to eliminate obesity, with people having their e.coli eliminated and replaced with versions that are engineered to keep them from getting fat, regardless of exercise. It won't be that long after that that they figure out how exercise affects the body and are able to replicate that with pharmaceuticals.
    - pm90 10y ago
      Lets try and look at facts rather than anecdotal evidence: https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statistics/Pages/overweight-obesity-statistics.aspx https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statisti...
      - Grishnakh 10y ago
        Your link is bullshit. Go read it: do you see any differentiation between urban and rural people at all? Do you see any differentiation between different regions of the nation? If the answer is no, then it's all bullshit. It's like trying to look for trends among programming language usage by averaging in ALL computer users. Since most computer users don't write any software at all, the clear trend is that no significant number of people use Python, Java, C++, C#, or really any programming language at all, so we should just cut off support for programming languages.
dragontamer 10y ago
This article is alarmist and seems to be very poor analysis on the part of Bloomberg. I don't see car repair shops going away. The only group that may die is Jiffy Lube and good riddance to them. Last time I checked... electric cars need their tires rotated (and all tire maintenance associated with that: Tire Repair, Tire balancing, etc. etc.). Brakes still need to be replaced: which means the brake fluid industry needs to remain, along with brakes and rotors need to be continuously produced. Electric cars still need coolant flush every few years. Both for coolant reasons and anti-corrosion reasons. Windshield wipers will crack. Windshields will continue to be replaced. Bodywork needs to repair damage from accidents. So hell, even the lowest tier, crap repair shop (Jiffy Lube) will still be around 30 years from now. Jiffy Lube's current work is: https://www.jiffylube.com/ https://www.jiffylube.com/ * Oil Changes -- the only thing that Electric Cars don't need * Brakes * Fluids (coolant / brake fluid. I guess transmission fluid might go away) * Tires
- taf2 10y ago
  I've driven my model s for 2 1/2 years and not yet had any need for service. Single peddle driving almost completely eliminates the need for brakes. I probably am due to rotate my tires. The AC works great and I don't think I've refilled the windshield wiper fluid yet. Related to the brakes I almost never notice dirty rims on a Tesla do you? If model s is any indicator to the future of EV car reliability than basically that leaves jiffylube maybe handling: * tires * fluids There would be huge drop in need for brake maintenance. I have no idea where their profit center sits, but I can't imagine it's only in tires and fluids?
  - joosters 10y ago
    Electric vehicles require less windscreen wiper fluid? Technology truly is great :)
  - dragontamer 10y ago
    > I've driven my model s for 2 1/2 years and not yet had any need for service. My car (2014 Ford Focus) is 2 and 1/2 years old. Here are the list of things I've done to my car: * Three oil changes and tire rotations. The tires should be rotated every 7500 miles or so, regardless of the vehicle. * New Windshield Wipers -- Rubber degrades when exposed to the sun over long periods of time. I had to replace my windshield wipers recently. * Air Conditioning Filter -- Pollen gets in there. Replaced at 20,000 miles (a few months ago). * Windshield Wiper fluid -- I top it off every month or so. * Three punctured tires -- Why are there so many screws on the road? Uggghhhhh. I check tire-pressure weekly and top it off at a gas-station to 35 PSI. The only thing the Tesla gets rid of, compared to my car, are the three oil changes, which happen whenever I rotate my tires anyway. (I do oil changes / tire rotations myself. Very easy job) The cost of full-synthetic oil + filter is $35, spent every 7500 miles for the oil change. Its basically negligible. My previous car was a Nissan Maxima with 150,000+ miles on it. My family changed its brakes twice in its lifetime (hand-me-down from my father as I left for college). I think people are severely overestimating the amount of times brakes need to be changed.
jseliger 10y ago
#7, WRT ebikes, is particularly interesting: there have been a rash of ebike Kickstarters (see e.g. https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/hongquan/karmic-kyoto https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/hongquan/karmic-kyoto) and startups recently, and if the bikes get cheap enough they could really change a lot of people's attitudes towards biking and bike infrastructure. They might also make bike shares more attractive; Seattle is very hilly and its bike share may go electric: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/leading-bike-share-bidder-proposes-all-electric-fleet-for-seattle/ http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/leading-bi.... My girlfriend bought an electric bike four years ago, but that was a little too early, and when we moved to a place with stairs the electric bike had to go. But the person who bought it on Craigslist loves it and rides it to drop her kid off at daycare, then to work. If you haven't ridden a pedal-assist electric bike, you should stop by your local bike shop and try one out. They're quite remarkable, but in a way that is difficult to appreciate over text. I personally don't need one because I ride on flat terrain, so I prefer a Novarra Gotham (https://www.rei.com/product/888337/novara-gotham-bike-2016); https://www.rei.com/product/888337/novara-gotham-bike-2016); still, the appeal is there.
- lordnacho 10y ago
  The natural taker for this is Boris Bikes in London. There's already loads of stands for ordinary bikes, perhaps they could be reconfigured for electric? Seems to work quite nicely already with locking and registration.
  - Symbiote 10y ago
    Copenhagen's city hire bikes are electric, and charge from the docking stations. I haven't used one, and I don't understand why they are electric - the city is as flat as a pancake anyway.
aurizon 10y ago
This is what they call an 'inflection point'. The traditional car makers are trying to adapt, but they have so much union baggage in terms of work practices, wages and pensions given too early and in excess that are underwater in terms of their supportability in terms of the interest yield of the underlying monies, which may well force them into bankruptcy. As they start gas car sales aill fall off a cliff as people choose to wait for an electric car instead of buying their next gas based car. Will they try to take over Tesla? I think this recent Solar City takeover is part of a plan to interdict any potential takeover, and all Musk has to do is ask his car owners to buy 100 shares or more and bid up the prices and deny those votes to block it.
- joosters 10y ago
  So progress requires throwing away workers' rights?
  - sokoloff 10y ago
    To the extent that "workers' rights" as expressed in union contracts make legacy car companies unable to compete, then yes, we might have to allow non-competitive companies to be crushed by competitive companies.
- ethanbond 10y ago
  What about the baggage of several levels of multimillion dollar executive compensation?
- imtringued 10y ago
  Why would they wait for an electric car? Pretty much every "traditional" car maker has been offering electric cars for several years. http://www.plugincars.com/cars http://www.plugincars.com/cars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_cars_currently_available#Highway_capable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_cars_currentl...
loeg 10y ago
I think it's a good article, but misses on one of its claims. > Another powerful driver for the uptake of electric vehicles is that they are a vastly superior platform for autonomous driving, infotainment, connected vehicle and transport-as-a-service technologies, ... And it simply makes no sense to have an inherently analogue power unit – vibrating, volatile-liquid-consuming, hot-polluting-exhaust-producing – at the heart of a fully digital, sensor-pervaded, solid-state-electronics-controlled system. I don't think there's anything true about this statement, basically. There's no reason not to put automated driving, connected vehicle, and transport-as-a-service technologies in petrol cars (as long as it's still economical to make and sell petrol cars).
- derefr 10y ago
  Perhaps the point the article is aiming for there is: we've started down a path toward cars becoming almost "System-on-a-Chip" designs, like mobile and IoT devices currently are. But the analogue components of a car—places where the motor is connected to analogue sensors, or analogue actuators, using analogue (e.g. hydraulic, or rotating-shaft) signalling paths—resist this vertical integration. You're right that there's no reason to not put these technologies into petrol cars. But there will be two opposing forces from that point forward: the computerized side of the car trying to expand its digital signal-path tentacles through the whole architecture, and the traditional petrol motor and its associated parts resisting change-for-the-sake-of-change in favor of well-known (analogue) engineering solutions. In the end, I suspect the force of computerization will "win", and what we'll end up with is every car essentially being an electric car architecturally, just with some cars containing a petrol-fed electric generator under the hood. Such an architecture likely won't be as fuel-efficient as current hybrid designs are! But it will win anyway: due to the vertical integration possible in electronic systems, it'll likely be much, much cheaper to produce, and more reliable. The "core" of your car—everything that's not sensors or motors—will be a $50 daughterboard, not even worth diagnosing when there's a problem, just popped out and replaced. Just like phones are today.
  - loeg 10y ago
    I don't think we're remotely close to cars being SoCs, or that there's anything about analogue components that magically resists monitoring with sensors.
awjr 10y ago
I'm in a lucky position to be reviewing a series of e-bikes over the coming weeks/months. This is particularly relevant as I live in Bath, UK with 7 rather impressive hills. The current model I'm putting through its paces a mid-drive Bosch based bike http://www.ebco-ebikes.co.uk/products-page/ebco/ebco-ucl-70/ http://www.ebco-ebikes.co.uk/products-page/ebco/ebco-ucl-70/ I am 20st 8 or 130kg. It does rather well although I failed to get it up this hill https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/14086433_10154191952101281_910221094967031248_o.jpg https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/14086433_101541... near Avoncliff (Winsley Hill). I've come to the conclusion that e-bikes are not just a bicycle with motor. It is not cycling in the sense of sport cycling or leisure cycling. It is a transformative form of transport that offer you the freedom and the range you need within an urban (and lesser extent rural) environment to just simply get from A to B while being connected to your local community. I've been lending the bike out to various people whenever I have stopped. The Deliveroo (takeaway delivered by bike) couriers were absolutely stunned how different it is. There isn't a single person that hasn't tried the bike out that hasn't been absolutely stunned at what it can do. It really is nothing like cycling. I think the biggest impact for me is that I don't worry about hills any more. It also gives you significant acceleration from a standing start. You are usually up to 16mph within a 4-5 pedals. This is really important when vehicular cycling. I feel a lot more confident in traffic on one of these. Everyone seems to be talking about self-driving cars. Seriously, at an urban level, do not discount just how important the e-bike is. It's the most efficient and fastest way you can go from A to B in a city. One other thing, don't buy a cheap bike. The mid-drive systems are expensive but they are the best on the market. Hub motors are just not as good. I can only suggest you try one of them. Find a local stockist and go borrow one for an hour. Of note my wife has one with a throttle. She has a bad knee. She refused a mobility scooter, but a lovely blue bike with a basket on the front looks good and she can peddle as much as she is physically able to, and then let the bike take her home. E-bikes are stunning. Really really amazingly good modes of transport. After testing the one today on a 40mile round trip, I will state, next time I'm taking my normal gravel bike. For leisure they are just not as demanding physically so not as much fun for that. But that's me. For getting around the city of Bath, I will always use the e-bike. Arrive fresh and relaxed. I feel I can easily explore the city now without having to worry about hills.
- 10y ago
gwbas1c 10y ago
Basically, I think this article underestimates EV adoption. I think we'll be at about 100% EVs by 2030. (Just my opinion.) Why? There are only three obstacles, but they are quickly getting eliminated. 1: Battery cost for long-range EVs is quickly dropping. 2: Charging time is also improving. We really only need to get down to about 10-15 minutes for a quick charge. That's enough time to pee, poop, and get a snack during a long road trip. 3: Charging ubiquity is also improving. For people who can't charge at home, businesses like grocery stores, malls, and restaurants provide a great opportunity to charge without making an extra trip to the gas station.
- erikpukinskis 10y ago
  I mostly agree (100% is obviously wrong, people still buy records and renaissance clothing) but I think self driving is the biggest reason. Self driving will make ride service cheaper per mile than car ownership. That will make car ownership a luxury activity. Since electric cars will be cheaper per mile, the self driving car sharing fleets will be all electric. Essentially, anyone who is price conscious at all will be on electric, which means 90%+ of the market.
- spectrum1234 10y ago
  Agreed. It missing that non EV cars will be illegal in many countries shortly after the tipping point.
- loeg 10y ago
  In 2030? Maybe for new car sales, but there will still be plenty of older cars on the road.
sunstone 10y ago
"... oil prices -- currently around $80 per barrel but dropping fast" ?? I'm guessing that was a typo and he meant $50 per barrel.

62 points by hunglee2 10y ago

This was a good post because the car thing got my attention, but it turned to have a much broader wake of analysis behind it. What do you think about the idea that broad-based, multi-sector automation will remove some of the essential challenges in life, and ultimately weaken cognitive abilities? My logic is that as we increase our conveniences, our requirement for physical exertion diminishes and the average body mass grows. So, will the same thing happen to our minds - without the need to exercise them will their performance diminish? If so, will that create a class of knowers and non-knowers, and if so who is responsible for non-knowers? I read a lot of desperation in the comments here and elsewhere while at the same time believing generally that we live in a golden age (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12373014 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12373014).

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
pm90 10y ago
We already have a lot of automation and it has hardly lead to a weakening of cognitive abilities. Washing machines, dishwashers etc. On the contrary, it has increased productivity, allowing more people to dedicate their lives towards medical research, specifically cognitive research. Its true that future humans may end up as overweight, wheelchair ridden as depicted in Wall-E. But It can also go the other way. Technology has also made fitness to be very popular, for instance. We won't know until it comes to pass. Evolution has generally favored fitness though (e.g. endorphins are released during exercise) so it seems unlikely that the obesity epidemic will spread everywhere or be so complete.
- merb 10y ago
  hm... it could also lead to something like Idiocracy. I mean the more technology you have the less you care about old things, like "how to build a building". Just look at how much worse the whole building industry gotten. The try to be cheaper which also comes with the cost of less trained people.
  - rm_-rf_slash 10y ago
    How has the building industry gotten worse? What metrics can be used to evaluate it?
    - nkoren 10y ago
      The Empire State building was completed in 1931. It had 103 floors, took 13 months from start to finish, and cost $637M (adjusted for inflation). 83 years later, in the same city, the Freedom Tower was completed. It had one more floor, but took 102 months to build and cost $4B. Obviously that's only two data points, but it's broadly representative of the general trend. Our capacity to build infrastructure has declined dramatically over the past century. Obviously we're still able to do it, but the costs and timescales have increased by orders of magnitude.
      - Eerie 10y ago
        >Obviously that's only two data points, but it's broadly representative of the general trend. NO, IT IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANYTHING. So many things changed between 1931 and 2013, and the circumstances surrounding ESB and 1WTC are so different (9/11, for one) the comparison is utterly meaningless.
      - jamiek88 10y ago
        How many deaths and serious injuries in comparison?
        gwright 10y ago
        > According to official records, five people died while constructing the Empire State Building. One was struck by a truck, another fell down an elevator shaft, a third was killed by explosives, a fourth struck by a hoist and the fifth fell from scaffolding. On the other hand it doesn't seem like the Freedom Tower construction had a very good record either (but I couldn't find any info on deaths): > In fact, The News found at least 81 incidents involving dangerous work conditions at the site since construction began in 2003. Through this year, at least 42 of those incidents involved workers falling from a height far enough to seriously injure themselves.
- Grishnakh 10y ago
  I disagree with the overweight thing. Go to any trendy city in America now and walk around downtown. You'll see a bunch of upper-middle-class people, and none of them are fat. People now spend time doing physical fitness activities that they didn't in decades past. They also eat a lot better; there's more awareness about some foods being unhealthy. In America, we're seeing a divide between the urban culture and the rural culture, where urban (mostly white) people have good economic success mostly, and are healthier, while rural people are going the other way; hang out with rural people sometime and you'll find they generally have terrible health. They eat cheap, crappy food, and they drive everywhere, and don't spend any time exercising. Ultimately, in the farther future, obesity will be cured by medical means. It's not really that complicated, and there's been a lot of research lately into how gut microbes affect it, and it turns out it's enormous. I predict that pretty soon we'll have gut microbe transplants being used to eliminate obesity, with people having their e.coli eliminated and replaced with versions that are engineered to keep them from getting fat, regardless of exercise. It won't be that long after that that they figure out how exercise affects the body and are able to replicate that with pharmaceuticals.
  - pm90 10y ago
    Lets try and look at facts rather than anecdotal evidence: https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statistics/Pages/overweight-obesity-statistics.aspx https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statisti...
    - Grishnakh 10y ago
      Your link is bullshit. Go read it: do you see any differentiation between urban and rural people at all? Do you see any differentiation between different regions of the nation? If the answer is no, then it's all bullshit. It's like trying to look for trends among programming language usage by averaging in ALL computer users. Since most computer users don't write any software at all, the clear trend is that no significant number of people use Python, Java, C++, C#, or really any programming language at all, so we should just cut off support for programming languages.

dragontamer 10y ago

This article is alarmist and seems to be very poor analysis on the part of Bloomberg. I don't see car repair shops going away. The only group that may die is Jiffy Lube and good riddance to them. Last time I checked... electric cars need their tires rotated (and all tire maintenance associated with that: Tire Repair, Tire balancing, etc. etc.). Brakes still need to be replaced: which means the brake fluid industry needs to remain, along with brakes and rotors need to be continuously produced. Electric cars still need coolant flush every few years. Both for coolant reasons and anti-corrosion reasons. Windshield wipers will crack. Windshields will continue to be replaced. Bodywork needs to repair damage from accidents. So hell, even the lowest tier, crap repair shop (Jiffy Lube) will still be around 30 years from now. Jiffy Lube's current work is: https://www.jiffylube.com/ https://www.jiffylube.com/ * Oil Changes -- the only thing that Electric Cars don't need * Brakes * Fluids (coolant / brake fluid. I guess transmission fluid might go away) * Tires

taf2 10y ago
I've driven my model s for 2 1/2 years and not yet had any need for service. Single peddle driving almost completely eliminates the need for brakes. I probably am due to rotate my tires. The AC works great and I don't think I've refilled the windshield wiper fluid yet. Related to the brakes I almost never notice dirty rims on a Tesla do you? If model s is any indicator to the future of EV car reliability than basically that leaves jiffylube maybe handling: * tires * fluids There would be huge drop in need for brake maintenance. I have no idea where their profit center sits, but I can't imagine it's only in tires and fluids?
- joosters 10y ago
  Electric vehicles require less windscreen wiper fluid? Technology truly is great :)
- dragontamer 10y ago
  > I've driven my model s for 2 1/2 years and not yet had any need for service. My car (2014 Ford Focus) is 2 and 1/2 years old. Here are the list of things I've done to my car: * Three oil changes and tire rotations. The tires should be rotated every 7500 miles or so, regardless of the vehicle. * New Windshield Wipers -- Rubber degrades when exposed to the sun over long periods of time. I had to replace my windshield wipers recently. * Air Conditioning Filter -- Pollen gets in there. Replaced at 20,000 miles (a few months ago). * Windshield Wiper fluid -- I top it off every month or so. * Three punctured tires -- Why are there so many screws on the road? Uggghhhhh. I check tire-pressure weekly and top it off at a gas-station to 35 PSI. The only thing the Tesla gets rid of, compared to my car, are the three oil changes, which happen whenever I rotate my tires anyway. (I do oil changes / tire rotations myself. Very easy job) The cost of full-synthetic oil + filter is $35, spent every 7500 miles for the oil change. Its basically negligible. My previous car was a Nissan Maxima with 150,000+ miles on it. My family changed its brakes twice in its lifetime (hand-me-down from my father as I left for college). I think people are severely overestimating the amount of times brakes need to be changed.

jseliger 10y ago

#7, WRT ebikes, is particularly interesting: there have been a rash of ebike Kickstarters (see e.g. https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/hongquan/karmic-kyoto https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/hongquan/karmic-kyoto) and startups recently, and if the bikes get cheap enough they could really change a lot of people's attitudes towards biking and bike infrastructure. They might also make bike shares more attractive; Seattle is very hilly and its bike share may go electric: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/leading-bike-share-bidder-proposes-all-electric-fleet-for-seattle/ http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/leading-bi.... My girlfriend bought an electric bike four years ago, but that was a little too early, and when we moved to a place with stairs the electric bike had to go. But the person who bought it on Craigslist loves it and rides it to drop her kid off at daycare, then to work. If you haven't ridden a pedal-assist electric bike, you should stop by your local bike shop and try one out. They're quite remarkable, but in a way that is difficult to appreciate over text. I personally don't need one because I ride on flat terrain, so I prefer a Novarra Gotham (https://www.rei.com/product/888337/novara-gotham-bike-2016); https://www.rei.com/product/888337/novara-gotham-bike-2016); still, the appeal is there.

lordnacho 10y ago
The natural taker for this is Boris Bikes in London. There's already loads of stands for ordinary bikes, perhaps they could be reconfigured for electric? Seems to work quite nicely already with locking and registration.
- Symbiote 10y ago
  Copenhagen's city hire bikes are electric, and charge from the docking stations. I haven't used one, and I don't understand why they are electric - the city is as flat as a pancake anyway.

aurizon 10y ago

This is what they call an 'inflection point'. The traditional car makers are trying to adapt, but they have so much union baggage in terms of work practices, wages and pensions given too early and in excess that are underwater in terms of their supportability in terms of the interest yield of the underlying monies, which may well force them into bankruptcy. As they start gas car sales aill fall off a cliff as people choose to wait for an electric car instead of buying their next gas based car. Will they try to take over Tesla? I think this recent Solar City takeover is part of a plan to interdict any potential takeover, and all Musk has to do is ask his car owners to buy 100 shares or more and bid up the prices and deny those votes to block it.

joosters 10y ago
So progress requires throwing away workers' rights?
- sokoloff 10y ago
  To the extent that "workers' rights" as expressed in union contracts make legacy car companies unable to compete, then yes, we might have to allow non-competitive companies to be crushed by competitive companies.
ethanbond 10y ago
What about the baggage of several levels of multimillion dollar executive compensation?
imtringued 10y ago
Why would they wait for an electric car? Pretty much every "traditional" car maker has been offering electric cars for several years. http://www.plugincars.com/cars http://www.plugincars.com/cars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_cars_currently_available#Highway_capable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_cars_currentl...

loeg 10y ago

I think it's a good article, but misses on one of its claims. > Another powerful driver for the uptake of electric vehicles is that they are a vastly superior platform for autonomous driving, infotainment, connected vehicle and transport-as-a-service technologies, ... And it simply makes no sense to have an inherently analogue power unit – vibrating, volatile-liquid-consuming, hot-polluting-exhaust-producing – at the heart of a fully digital, sensor-pervaded, solid-state-electronics-controlled system. I don't think there's anything true about this statement, basically. There's no reason not to put automated driving, connected vehicle, and transport-as-a-service technologies in petrol cars (as long as it's still economical to make and sell petrol cars).

derefr 10y ago
Perhaps the point the article is aiming for there is: we've started down a path toward cars becoming almost "System-on-a-Chip" designs, like mobile and IoT devices currently are. But the analogue components of a car—places where the motor is connected to analogue sensors, or analogue actuators, using analogue (e.g. hydraulic, or rotating-shaft) signalling paths—resist this vertical integration. You're right that there's no reason to not put these technologies into petrol cars. But there will be two opposing forces from that point forward: the computerized side of the car trying to expand its digital signal-path tentacles through the whole architecture, and the traditional petrol motor and its associated parts resisting change-for-the-sake-of-change in favor of well-known (analogue) engineering solutions. In the end, I suspect the force of computerization will "win", and what we'll end up with is every car essentially being an electric car architecturally, just with some cars containing a petrol-fed electric generator under the hood. Such an architecture likely won't be as fuel-efficient as current hybrid designs are! But it will win anyway: due to the vertical integration possible in electronic systems, it'll likely be much, much cheaper to produce, and more reliable. The "core" of your car—everything that's not sensors or motors—will be a $50 daughterboard, not even worth diagnosing when there's a problem, just popped out and replaced. Just like phones are today.
- loeg 10y ago
  I don't think we're remotely close to cars being SoCs, or that there's anything about analogue components that magically resists monitoring with sensors.

awjr 10y ago

I'm in a lucky position to be reviewing a series of e-bikes over the coming weeks/months. This is particularly relevant as I live in Bath, UK with 7 rather impressive hills. The current model I'm putting through its paces a mid-drive Bosch based bike http://www.ebco-ebikes.co.uk/products-page/ebco/ebco-ucl-70/ http://www.ebco-ebikes.co.uk/products-page/ebco/ebco-ucl-70/ I am 20st 8 or 130kg. It does rather well although I failed to get it up this hill https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/14086433_10154191952101281_910221094967031248_o.jpg https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/14086433_101541... near Avoncliff (Winsley Hill). I've come to the conclusion that e-bikes are not just a bicycle with motor. It is not cycling in the sense of sport cycling or leisure cycling. It is a transformative form of transport that offer you the freedom and the range you need within an urban (and lesser extent rural) environment to just simply get from A to B while being connected to your local community. I've been lending the bike out to various people whenever I have stopped. The Deliveroo (takeaway delivered by bike) couriers were absolutely stunned how different it is. There isn't a single person that hasn't tried the bike out that hasn't been absolutely stunned at what it can do. It really is nothing like cycling. I think the biggest impact for me is that I don't worry about hills any more. It also gives you significant acceleration from a standing start. You are usually up to 16mph within a 4-5 pedals. This is really important when vehicular cycling. I feel a lot more confident in traffic on one of these. Everyone seems to be talking about self-driving cars. Seriously, at an urban level, do not discount just how important the e-bike is. It's the most efficient and fastest way you can go from A to B in a city. One other thing, don't buy a cheap bike. The mid-drive systems are expensive but they are the best on the market. Hub motors are just not as good. I can only suggest you try one of them. Find a local stockist and go borrow one for an hour. Of note my wife has one with a throttle. She has a bad knee. She refused a mobility scooter, but a lovely blue bike with a basket on the front looks good and she can peddle as much as she is physically able to, and then let the bike take her home. E-bikes are stunning. Really really amazingly good modes of transport. After testing the one today on a 40mile round trip, I will state, next time I'm taking my normal gravel bike. For leisure they are just not as demanding physically so not as much fun for that. But that's me. For getting around the city of Bath, I will always use the e-bike. Arrive fresh and relaxed. I feel I can easily explore the city now without having to worry about hills.

10y ago

gwbas1c 10y ago

Basically, I think this article underestimates EV adoption. I think we'll be at about 100% EVs by 2030. (Just my opinion.) Why? There are only three obstacles, but they are quickly getting eliminated. 1: Battery cost for long-range EVs is quickly dropping. 2: Charging time is also improving. We really only need to get down to about 10-15 minutes for a quick charge. That's enough time to pee, poop, and get a snack during a long road trip. 3: Charging ubiquity is also improving. For people who can't charge at home, businesses like grocery stores, malls, and restaurants provide a great opportunity to charge without making an extra trip to the gas station.

erikpukinskis 10y ago
I mostly agree (100% is obviously wrong, people still buy records and renaissance clothing) but I think self driving is the biggest reason. Self driving will make ride service cheaper per mile than car ownership. That will make car ownership a luxury activity. Since electric cars will be cheaper per mile, the self driving car sharing fleets will be all electric. Essentially, anyone who is price conscious at all will be on electric, which means 90%+ of the market.
spectrum1234 10y ago
Agreed. It missing that non EV cars will be illegal in many countries shortly after the tipping point.
loeg 10y ago
In 2030? Maybe for new car sales, but there will still be plenty of older cars on the road.

sunstone 10y ago

"... oil prices -- currently around $80 per barrel but dropping fast" ?? I'm guessing that was a typo and he meant $50 per barrel.