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I've got your prospectus right here: http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Welcome-to-the-Terrordome.png http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/

I've got your prospectus right here: http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Welcome-to-the-Terrordome.png http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Welcome-to-t...

toomuchtodo 10y ago
And http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Nature-Climate-Change-Batteries-Cheaper-than-2020-Projections.png http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Nature-Clima... As soon as we hit $100/kWh in the next year or two, that oil is worthless [1] (Tesla will supposedly hit this target when the Gigafactory is at full capacity). Clean energy investments year over year: https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iWfsqt_Qmf9Q/v1/-1x-1.png https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iWfsqt_Qmf9... [1] https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/energy_flow_2013/2013USEnergy.png https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/en...
- adventured 10y ago
  That oil will still be worth trillions for the next two decades. It won't be worthless until the global economy has moved very substantially off of oil. It won't even plunge toward worthless until demand begins to dramatically fall off, which isn't going to occur in the next two or three years. The Saudis will likely have time to liquidate a very large portion of Aramco and its oil assets before the market for oil dries up too much. In 20 years they can exhaust over half of their oil reserves (by some estimates, they'll be a net oil importer by 2030-2035). They'll sell well over ten trillion dollars worth of oil in that time. It will take decades to shift the global economy and industry off of oil. In ten years, the majority of cars on the road globally will still be burning gasoline. That hopefully won't be the case in 20 though.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - ThrustVectoring 10y ago
    Burning gasoline isn't the problem, burning gasoline that's sourced from the ground is. It's possible to use a lot of electricity to run gasoline combustion backwards, turning CO2 and H20 into gasoline. It's currently not economical due to electricity prices, but it may be a better option to retrofit gasoline production rather than automobile fuel consumption.
  - Gibbon1 10y ago
    > (by some estimates, they'll be a net oil importer by 2030-2035). That's kind of a 'funny' observation. Saudi Arabia can't ever be an oil importer since the only thing they have to exchange for oil is oil.
    - tw04 10y ago
      I'm fairly certain the rest of the world would be happy to exchange cash for oil or oil for cash.
      - Gibbon1 10y ago
        Saudi Arabia doesn't have any real way to earn cash except by selling oil. There is the whole Mecca thing, but that's it.
        tw04 10y ago
        I'm not sure what part of this you're not getting. They're selling off a small stake of the state-owned oil company to diversify how they make money. They'll use the remaining money + new income from the corporations they'll build/buy to import oil. This isn't a hard concept to follow.
  - dgemm 10y ago
    It won't be worthless but it will be worth less.
- tcoppi 10y ago
  There are other uses for oil besides gasoline that are not going to be displaced anytime soon. Jet fuel, home heating(could be if solar gets exceptionally cheap, but unlikely anytime soon), asphalt, plastics, etc. Those uses alone probably can't support oil at even its current depressed prices, but it will hardly be worthless for decades to come.
  - codecamper 10y ago
    heating with oil is expensive. solar panels actually can heat well. just heat a block of concrete. the concrete is the battery. electrodacus is doing this now.
    - tcoppi 10y ago
      Burning natural gas is among the cheapest forms of heating we have, and it works 24/7/365 and at all latitudes. Solar heating using a slab as a heat reserve requires re-engineering houses completely and may be impossible in a lot of places that don't get a lot of sun during the coldest months.
      - NotSammyHagar 10y ago
        sure, nat gas works great where lines go to your house. I was at a house in the seattle area last weekend (a well developed metropolis) where people had propane. Solar goes everywhere, but depends on good weather to be useful.
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - paulddraper 10y ago
      Solar panels heat well in sunny weather. Which is the opposite of when you need heat :)
    - i_feel_great 10y ago
      Also need to design and build with materials that maintain as constant a temperature as possible. Double glazing, insulated walls, floors and roofs, orientation to the sun etc.
return0 10y ago
They ll use the IPO money to invest in solar.
- velodrome 10y ago
  No, they will use that money to diversify out of oil (energy).
  - i_feel_great 10y ago
    No, they will use that money to pay their inefficient and unproductive, sometimes parasitic public service workforce. Then their religious schools and holy men, then buy more weapons.
planteen 10y ago
What a misleading chart. A lot of this discussion about solar reminds me of the peak oil discussion that happened around 2005. Oil is tanking due to US non-conventional oil and fracking. I think natural gas power generation will be relevant for decades. Petroleum is a great way to store energy. Battery technology hasn't improved a whole lot in 200 years.

I've got your prospectus right here: http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Welcome-to-the-Terrordome.png http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Welcome-to-t...

toomuchtodo 10y ago

And http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Nature-Climate-Change-Batteries-Cheaper-than-2020-Projections.png http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Nature-Clima... As soon as we hit $100/kWh in the next year or two, that oil is worthless [1] (Tesla will supposedly hit this target when the Gigafactory is at full capacity). Clean energy investments year over year: https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iWfsqt_Qmf9Q/v1/-1x-1.png https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iWfsqt_Qmf9... [1] https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/energy_flow_2013/2013USEnergy.png https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/energy/energy_archive/en...

adventured 10y ago
That oil will still be worth trillions for the next two decades. It won't be worthless until the global economy has moved very substantially off of oil. It won't even plunge toward worthless until demand begins to dramatically fall off, which isn't going to occur in the next two or three years. The Saudis will likely have time to liquidate a very large portion of Aramco and its oil assets before the market for oil dries up too much. In 20 years they can exhaust over half of their oil reserves (by some estimates, they'll be a net oil importer by 2030-2035). They'll sell well over ten trillion dollars worth of oil in that time. It will take decades to shift the global economy and industry off of oil. In ten years, the majority of cars on the road globally will still be burning gasoline. That hopefully won't be the case in 20 though.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- ThrustVectoring 10y ago
  Burning gasoline isn't the problem, burning gasoline that's sourced from the ground is. It's possible to use a lot of electricity to run gasoline combustion backwards, turning CO2 and H20 into gasoline. It's currently not economical due to electricity prices, but it may be a better option to retrofit gasoline production rather than automobile fuel consumption.
- Gibbon1 10y ago
  > (by some estimates, they'll be a net oil importer by 2030-2035). That's kind of a 'funny' observation. Saudi Arabia can't ever be an oil importer since the only thing they have to exchange for oil is oil.
  - tw04 10y ago
    I'm fairly certain the rest of the world would be happy to exchange cash for oil or oil for cash.
    - Gibbon1 10y ago
      Saudi Arabia doesn't have any real way to earn cash except by selling oil. There is the whole Mecca thing, but that's it.
      - tw04 10y ago
        I'm not sure what part of this you're not getting. They're selling off a small stake of the state-owned oil company to diversify how they make money. They'll use the remaining money + new income from the corporations they'll build/buy to import oil. This isn't a hard concept to follow.
- dgemm 10y ago
  It won't be worthless but it will be worth less.
tcoppi 10y ago
There are other uses for oil besides gasoline that are not going to be displaced anytime soon. Jet fuel, home heating(could be if solar gets exceptionally cheap, but unlikely anytime soon), asphalt, plastics, etc. Those uses alone probably can't support oil at even its current depressed prices, but it will hardly be worthless for decades to come.
- codecamper 10y ago
  heating with oil is expensive. solar panels actually can heat well. just heat a block of concrete. the concrete is the battery. electrodacus is doing this now.
  - tcoppi 10y ago
    Burning natural gas is among the cheapest forms of heating we have, and it works 24/7/365 and at all latitudes. Solar heating using a slab as a heat reserve requires re-engineering houses completely and may be impossible in a lot of places that don't get a lot of sun during the coldest months.
    - NotSammyHagar 10y ago
      sure, nat gas works great where lines go to your house. I was at a house in the seattle area last weekend (a well developed metropolis) where people had propane. Solar goes everywhere, but depends on good weather to be useful.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - paulddraper 10y ago
    Solar panels heat well in sunny weather. Which is the opposite of when you need heat :)
  - i_feel_great 10y ago
    Also need to design and build with materials that maintain as constant a temperature as possible. Double glazing, insulated walls, floors and roofs, orientation to the sun etc.

return0 10y ago

They ll use the IPO money to invest in solar.

velodrome 10y ago
No, they will use that money to diversify out of oil (energy).
- i_feel_great 10y ago
  No, they will use that money to pay their inefficient and unproductive, sometimes parasitic public service workforce. Then their religious schools and holy men, then buy more weapons.

planteen 10y ago

What a misleading chart. A lot of this discussion about solar reminds me of the peak oil discussion that happened around 2005. Oil is tanking due to US non-conventional oil and fracking. I think natural gas power generation will be relevant for decades. Petroleum is a great way to store energy. Battery technology hasn't improved a whole lot in 200 years.