7 ms·

They are absolutely excited about the time when self-driving cars will be actually here. But the real play here is to use taxi service as a pretext/generator f

by niftich 10y ago

They are absolutely excited about the time when self-driving cars will be actually here. But the real play here is to use taxi service as a pretext/generator for building up an on-demand courier service [1] with superior returns -- and performance that vastly dwarfs any incumbents. [1] https://rush.uber.com/how-it-works https://rush.uber.com/how-it-works EDIT: after the introduction of courier services, picking up passengers serves as a baseline load [2] (to borrow from electricity distribution terminology) to keep drivers incentivized to be on the roads, but the real prize will be the courier tasks. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_load_power_plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_load_power_plant

jahnu 10y ago
I'm probably in the minority here but I'm not convinced we are particularly close to real self-driving cars. It's definitely possible but I strongly suspect there are more challenges ahead than most people believe.
- kalleboo 10y ago
  Especially for the city, rain and night-time driving situations where Uber will find itself a lot of the time
- oblio 10y ago
  And even if we do get self-driving cars, people forget that there will be an FDA clinic trial like process before they are allowed on the roads, which will take years. Multiply that by the number of states/countries where you want to operate and by the level of bureaucracy in each country. I'd say that from the day the tech actually works properly (which might be many years away, still), it will take at least 10 years for its availability across the globe, if not more.
  - foota 10y ago
    Yeah, just like how rigorously Tesla's auto pilot has been vetted?
    - msandford 10y ago
      How long do you think they're going to be allowed to call it "Autopilot" when it's clearly not, and that confusion causes customers to trust it in ways that they shouldn't, and end up dying? I'm not saying Tesla should be stopped or that Elon should go to jail. But I think it's a clear case of false advertising, where lives are on the line.
      - mikeash 10y ago
        Actual airplane "autopilots" can be something as simple as automatic wing leveling or altitude hold. Using that name for Tesla's technology is only inaccurate in that they don't make airplanes. Where did everybody get the idea that "autopilot" implies full autonomy?
        WordyMcWordface 10y ago
        I expect an inflatable driver to appear and take the wheel, requiring only an occasional top up of air to keep things on the level.
        mikeash 10y ago
        I actually wonder if Airplane! is where people got the idea that "autopilot" means "the plane entirely flies itself." The bit where it's an inflatable doll is obviously satire, but maybe people thought the capabilities were real and the satire was just the doll part?
        treebeard901 10y ago
        For most people the word autopilot historically has meant full autonomy.
        mikeash 10y ago
        OK, but why? Such a thing has never existed on any production crewed aircraft.
  - marcoperaza 10y ago
    The number of people who die every year in car accidents is so massive that any big regulatory hold-up for automated cars, which would almost without a doubt reduce deaths by at least an order of magnitude, is politically untenable.
    - anoother 10y ago
      It may be _logically_ untenable. But certainly not politically...
    - rimantas 10y ago
      I don't know about US but there majority of fatal accidents are the results of deilberate misconduct, i.e. someone doing knowingly stupid things. Unless self-driving cars become mandatory they will help very little in this regards, because road hooligans won't be their target market.
- puranjay 10y ago
  I feel that the hype for self-driving cars is the same as it was for VR in the 90s We had to wait another 15-20 years for those feverished VR dreams to become a reality I reckon it'll be the same for self-driving. We are 20-25 years away, not 5-10
  - Noseshine 10y ago
    In addition, only a few days (one or two weeks) ago we had a much commented story linked here on HN that VR is way too hyped. Supprted by quotes from actual executives and/or investors in that business if I recall correctly, so not just the usual negativism that can always be found for any topic if you choose your source well.
    - puranjay 10y ago
      I don't think VR will ever be mainstream unless hardware costs come down drastically and they can figure out a way to make VR headsets look less dorky
  - phatfish 10y ago
    In 5-10 years i see self-driving on freeways and maybe other main roads that have standard junctions, markings and signs. Maybe with lanes only for self-driving. A self driving vehicle would do the long-haul and a human would do the tricky city/country lane leg of the journey. Automating the whole journey is a long way off as you say.
- jpalomaki 10y ago
  One option could be for them to use the self driving cars on some routes, or maybe even on just part of the route. If things were implemented really well, I could imagine travelling part of the journey in self driving car and then jumping to regular one for the "last mile" (or the other way round). This way one could use the self driving cars in the easy, but time consuming sections (for example congested high ways leading to airport).
- pjmorris 10y ago
  And, even once we get to self-driving cars, it changes the ride-sharing service's economics greatly... those self-driving cars aren't going to buy themselves.
  - zanny 10y ago
    Uber can hedge its insane market cap to buy a fleet, and then make effectively free money from that point forward selling rides.
- Shivetya 10y ago
  As I posted in the Tesla crash thread, the current "self driving" cars are only assisting in conditions the driver actually needs the least help, good visibility and weather conditions. Its not a safety feature yet, it is little more than an advanced cruise control. Until they can prove a self driving car can navigate a road at night in horrible weather conditions with and without other cars then its not self driving. If anything the current crop should be emphasizing that they can warn of bad driving habits.
Bromskloss 10y ago
Why would a courier service work so great for them? Are people prepared to pay more for that than for taxi trips? Btw, isn't their courier service already active?
sneak 10y ago
"It's like Uber, but for Amazon"
freyir 10y ago
> But the real play here is to use taxi service as a pretext/generator for building up an on-demand courier service [1] with superior returns So people will drive their sedans around the city delivering flowers and cakes and laundry? And instead of picking up flowers at the flower store, or laundry from the laundromat down the street, I'll pay $5 more for everything to have it delivered? Uber and Lyft's master plan for superior returns is to become Postmates? Somehow I'm skeptical. > picking up passengers serves as a baseline load ... to keep drivers incentivized to be on the roads, but the real prize will be the courier tasks. Why waste valuable space with bodies if courier tasks are the real prize? Drivers are incentivized by money. If drivers could make more money driving dresses than humans, most would fill their car with dresses and kick the humans to the curb.
- alsetmusic 10y ago
  I pay extra to get my groceries delivered because it saves me time. I also tested same-day delivery services from Amazon and Apple in the last several months. Amazon is a little different, but my local Apple Store and supermarket are pretty close. However, I used to suffer a grueling commute and it made me hate driving. I'm now happy to pay someone to reduce the time that I have to spend behind the wheel.
  - freyir 10y ago
    I know that Instacart/Postmates/etc. exist, are convenient, and are used by some people. I'm just skeptical that this is Uber's plan for "superior returns." I'm skeptical that driving bouquets and salads and clothes around town will be significantly more profitable than driving passengers.
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    >I pay extra to get my groceries delivered because it saves me time. That vast majority of Americans do everything they can to save a few bucks, even when it's an inefficient use of resources (time and money). I'm not sure "nickel and diming" a few wealthy people for home delivery is a $60BB business. There's not a huge barrier to entry and margins are low. But what do I know.
ralfd 10y ago
> They are absolutely excited about the time when self-driving cars will be actually here. But wouldn't everyone use self-driving cars and that level the playing field again? If you can't make a profit now, would that really change later?
vadym909 10y ago
Seriously- FedEx, UPS, Walmart have incredibly efficient logistics and operate with very thin margins. If Uber Lyft are relying on going up against them instead of the inefficient taxis- they are seriously smoking something illegal.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

by niftich 10y ago

jahnu 10y ago

I'm probably in the minority here but I'm not convinced we are particularly close to real self-driving cars. It's definitely possible but I strongly suspect there are more challenges ahead than most people believe.

kalleboo 10y ago
Especially for the city, rain and night-time driving situations where Uber will find itself a lot of the time
oblio 10y ago
And even if we do get self-driving cars, people forget that there will be an FDA clinic trial like process before they are allowed on the roads, which will take years. Multiply that by the number of states/countries where you want to operate and by the level of bureaucracy in each country. I'd say that from the day the tech actually works properly (which might be many years away, still), it will take at least 10 years for its availability across the globe, if not more.
- foota 10y ago
  Yeah, just like how rigorously Tesla's auto pilot has been vetted?
  - msandford 10y ago
    How long do you think they're going to be allowed to call it "Autopilot" when it's clearly not, and that confusion causes customers to trust it in ways that they shouldn't, and end up dying? I'm not saying Tesla should be stopped or that Elon should go to jail. But I think it's a clear case of false advertising, where lives are on the line.
    - mikeash 10y ago
      Actual airplane "autopilots" can be something as simple as automatic wing leveling or altitude hold. Using that name for Tesla's technology is only inaccurate in that they don't make airplanes. Where did everybody get the idea that "autopilot" implies full autonomy?
      - WordyMcWordface 10y ago
        I expect an inflatable driver to appear and take the wheel, requiring only an occasional top up of air to keep things on the level.
        mikeash 10y ago
        I actually wonder if Airplane! is where people got the idea that "autopilot" means "the plane entirely flies itself." The bit where it's an inflatable doll is obviously satire, but maybe people thought the capabilities were real and the satire was just the doll part?
      - treebeard901 10y ago
        For most people the word autopilot historically has meant full autonomy.
        mikeash 10y ago
        OK, but why? Such a thing has never existed on any production crewed aircraft.
- marcoperaza 10y ago
  The number of people who die every year in car accidents is so massive that any big regulatory hold-up for automated cars, which would almost without a doubt reduce deaths by at least an order of magnitude, is politically untenable.
  - anoother 10y ago
    It may be _logically_ untenable. But certainly not politically...
  - rimantas 10y ago
    I don't know about US but there majority of fatal accidents are the results of deilberate misconduct, i.e. someone doing knowingly stupid things. Unless self-driving cars become mandatory they will help very little in this regards, because road hooligans won't be their target market.
puranjay 10y ago
I feel that the hype for self-driving cars is the same as it was for VR in the 90s We had to wait another 15-20 years for those feverished VR dreams to become a reality I reckon it'll be the same for self-driving. We are 20-25 years away, not 5-10
- Noseshine 10y ago
  In addition, only a few days (one or two weeks) ago we had a much commented story linked here on HN that VR is way too hyped. Supprted by quotes from actual executives and/or investors in that business if I recall correctly, so not just the usual negativism that can always be found for any topic if you choose your source well.
  - puranjay 10y ago
    I don't think VR will ever be mainstream unless hardware costs come down drastically and they can figure out a way to make VR headsets look less dorky
- phatfish 10y ago
  In 5-10 years i see self-driving on freeways and maybe other main roads that have standard junctions, markings and signs. Maybe with lanes only for self-driving. A self driving vehicle would do the long-haul and a human would do the tricky city/country lane leg of the journey. Automating the whole journey is a long way off as you say.
jpalomaki 10y ago
One option could be for them to use the self driving cars on some routes, or maybe even on just part of the route. If things were implemented really well, I could imagine travelling part of the journey in self driving car and then jumping to regular one for the "last mile" (or the other way round). This way one could use the self driving cars in the easy, but time consuming sections (for example congested high ways leading to airport).
pjmorris 10y ago
And, even once we get to self-driving cars, it changes the ride-sharing service's economics greatly... those self-driving cars aren't going to buy themselves.
- zanny 10y ago
  Uber can hedge its insane market cap to buy a fleet, and then make effectively free money from that point forward selling rides.
Shivetya 10y ago
As I posted in the Tesla crash thread, the current "self driving" cars are only assisting in conditions the driver actually needs the least help, good visibility and weather conditions. Its not a safety feature yet, it is little more than an advanced cruise control. Until they can prove a self driving car can navigate a road at night in horrible weather conditions with and without other cars then its not self driving. If anything the current crop should be emphasizing that they can warn of bad driving habits.

Bromskloss 10y ago

Why would a courier service work so great for them? Are people prepared to pay more for that than for taxi trips? Btw, isn't their courier service already active?

sneak 10y ago

"It's like Uber, but for Amazon"

freyir 10y ago

> But the real play here is to use taxi service as a pretext/generator for building up an on-demand courier service [1] with superior returns So people will drive their sedans around the city delivering flowers and cakes and laundry? And instead of picking up flowers at the flower store, or laundry from the laundromat down the street, I'll pay $5 more for everything to have it delivered? Uber and Lyft's master plan for superior returns is to become Postmates? Somehow I'm skeptical. > picking up passengers serves as a baseline load ... to keep drivers incentivized to be on the roads, but the real prize will be the courier tasks. Why waste valuable space with bodies if courier tasks are the real prize? Drivers are incentivized by money. If drivers could make more money driving dresses than humans, most would fill their car with dresses and kick the humans to the curb.

alsetmusic 10y ago
I pay extra to get my groceries delivered because it saves me time. I also tested same-day delivery services from Amazon and Apple in the last several months. Amazon is a little different, but my local Apple Store and supermarket are pretty close. However, I used to suffer a grueling commute and it made me hate driving. I'm now happy to pay someone to reduce the time that I have to spend behind the wheel.
- freyir 10y ago
  I know that Instacart/Postmates/etc. exist, are convenient, and are used by some people. I'm just skeptical that this is Uber's plan for "superior returns." I'm skeptical that driving bouquets and salads and clothes around town will be significantly more profitable than driving passengers.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >I pay extra to get my groceries delivered because it saves me time. That vast majority of Americans do everything they can to save a few bucks, even when it's an inefficient use of resources (time and money). I'm not sure "nickel and diming" a few wealthy people for home delivery is a $60BB business. There's not a huge barrier to entry and margins are low. But what do I know.

ralfd 10y ago

> They are absolutely excited about the time when self-driving cars will be actually here. But wouldn't everyone use self-driving cars and that level the playing field again? If you can't make a profit now, would that really change later?

vadym909 10y ago

Seriously- FedEx, UPS, Walmart have incredibly efficient logistics and operate with very thin margins. If Uber Lyft are relying on going up against them instead of the inefficient taxis- they are seriously smoking something illegal.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]