7 ms·
Given the scarcity of this stuff, we really need to be looking at this in terms of centuries and maybe tight controls are still a good idea.
by awjr 10y ago
Given the scarcity of this stuff, we really need to be looking at this in terms of centuries and maybe tight controls are still a good idea.
- dijit 10y agoNah fam. I need my balloons. /s But really, how do we deal with a public who feels that they are entitled the stuff, and companies willing to sell it to them because it's more profitable?
- fredley 10y agoWe have the means already: government controls on their stockpiles, and different tariffs for different uses of the gas.
- gutnor 10y agoThe thing is if this is so rare and so precious, why is it cheap enough to put in balloon. Now obviously I get that it is not currently rare, but that once it gets rare that's going to be a big issue. But there are people whose job is to prepare for the next 100 years. Those are governments. Shouldn't they just buy the whole lot of it while it is cheap, that's good use of public money if you know your country is going to need the stuff. The newfound scarcity should push the price of helium outside of regular human entertainment budget.
- organsnyder 10y agoIn the United States, we've had the National Helium Reserve since the 1960's. Unfortunately, the decision was made in 1996 to privatize the reserves, starting in the mid-2000's. That's much of the reason for the scarcity we face now.
- tragomaskhalos 10y agoThe year is 2800; An alien spacecraft lands to survey the blasted and ashen ruin that was once home to over 7 billion sentient beings. The mission commander, with infinite sadness, reports their findings to his superiors: "They let the market decide".
- jackweirdy 10y agoBut because of the helium, they presumably say it in a very high pitched voice.
- melling 10y ago7 billion? We're going to be close to 11 billion by the end of the century. That's a lot more birthday parties, graduations, etc. Don't forget the other effect on sea life when they're released near water: http://balloonsblow.org/impacts-on-wildlife-and-environment/ http://balloonsblow.org/impacts-on-wildlife-and-environment/
- throwanem 10y agoMeanwhile, from Alpha Centauri, Tau Ceti, and Barnard's Star, the expeditionary fleets of the First Great and Bounteous Human Empire set forth once more to conquer. (Hey, it's not any more or less plausible than what you said.)
- sethrin 10y agoPredicting the consumption of a scarce resource is extremely plausible, and there are many historical precedents. Predicting that interstellar travel will ever be in any way economically advantageous is probably unphysical. With travel time for messages taking decades and travel taking centuries, your "Human Empire" would be more along the lines of "Human-descended collection of exceptionally bad pen-pals". The speed of light and the tyrannies of the rocket equation don't really allow for anything else.
- gammarator 10y agoThe real problem was the decision in 96 to fix the price artificially low, which discouraged both conservation and new entrants in the market.
- schmudde 10y agoWhat do you mean by 'fix'? Who set it? I understand the US privatized its reserve, but I don't understand how the market seems so out-of-step with reality. What about other markets? EU, SE Asia - are they seeing the same low prices?
- rincebrain 10y agoThe US fixed its price below the cost to extract it for anyone, which has effectively kept the market there until their supply runs out.
- eru 10y agoI wonder why someone doesn't just buy the lot from them at their low prices, and scalps it?
- rincebrain 10y agoWell, [1] says they sold it at 3.43 USD per m^3 to non-government customers in 2014, and if they have over a billion m^3, it would require over 3.43 billion USD to accomplish. In addition to that, they'd then need to have a helium storage facility that could accommodate such an enormous reserve, the construction and maintenance of which might eat all of the profit from resale which might ensue. All of this presuming the government would sell a sole bidder their entire reserve in one fell swoop. [1] - http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/helium/mcs-2015-heliu.pdf http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/helium/mcs-...
- eru 10y agoYou could still make money at a larger scale (given a cheap enough storage facility): buy helium now, sell when more expensive. You'd have to wait. If you could buy the whole lot now, you could make the profit straight away. If storing the helium plus interest rates actually costs more than the expected price increase over time warrants----then the US government _should_ sell off the reserve now, and the whole thing about them selling too cheaply is nonsense. Though it might be that the US government can store helium cheaper than anyone else. In that case, perhaps they should sell the helium with the storage facilities? After all, what good are the storage facilities to them, when they've sold all the helium?
- gammarator 10y agoThe real problem was the decision in 96 to fix the price artificially low, which discouraged both conservation and new entrants in the market.
- sliverstorm 10y agoThe US helium reserve which supplies most of world helium was ordered to liquidate & shut down by 2010, so it is being sold way below cost.
- mikeash 10y agoWho are these people whose job it is to prepare for the next 100 years, and where do they work? I really think there should be such people, but I didn't think there really were any.
- pmarreck 10y ago> The thing is if this is so rare and so precious, why is it cheap enough to put in balloon. The price is literally held down by law (at least in the United States). Because people need to have their birthday balloons. Which is stupid as hell.
- paulryanrogers 10y agoEducation?
- jessriedel 10y agoStrong property rights that can be counted on to be respected over long timescales, and an efficient futures market. But step number one is accepting that for sufficient interest rates and sufficiently long times, the efficient outcome is not necessarily conservation.
- gpvos 10y agoThinking that such a level of market efficiency is attainable is utopian thinking. There will always be enough short-sighted people to thwart this. Also, why should we accept that?
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- jessriedel 10y ago> Thinking that such a level of market efficiency is attainable is utopian thinking. There will always be enough short-sighted people to thwart this. This mechanism has a tremendously better track record than the other ones proposed in this thread. No mechanism are perfect, but we should try to improve the working mechanism rather than use the broken one. And there don't seem to be any fundamental barriers in the way. > Also, why should we accept that? For the same reason we should accept other Pareto improvements: if you're doing otherwise, you're letting value go to waste.
- fennecfoxen 10y ago> Also, why should we accept that? Because at least entertaining that outcome is the only rational thing to do if you believe in attaching values to things and doing math on them? Right now people forecast about a 4% real (inflation-adjusted) rate of return on long-term investments. If the helium isn't going to be worth ~5 times as much 100 years from now, then it's more valuable to the world at large if we use it now than to wait 100 years, and we can make up the difference later. If you've got good reasons to attach particular values to the helium in 100 years, or the helium now, or the value of anything else investable in 100 years, then by all means do share, and tell us why everyone else in the market has it wrong (externalities the market participants are inflicting on others, perhaps? that's the classic reason). Then we can look at the math, and challenge each others' assumptions, like rational people in a rational argument. Otherwise, you're just attaching an irrational, spiritual value to the idea of conservation itself, and indicting everyone who doesn't share these values as heretics. While this may be a useful heuristic, it isn't always the best way to discuss a matter.
- rimantas 10y agohttp://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/06/18/were-really-not-about-to-run-out-of-helium-no-please-stop-it-were-not/#3602ae871cf0 http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/06/18/were-real...
- arviewer 10y agoThere are two types of helium. Helium 4 is useless except for balloons. It's cheap and there's a big supply. Helium 3 is just 0,000137% of the total, is important for science or stuff, and this is not sold for balloons.
- jessriedel 10y agoI think this is wrong. Helium 3 is indeed needed for dilution refrigeration, which is a quite advanced cooling method. I believe it is mostly only used in laboratories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dilution_refrigerator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dilution_refrigerator However, regular helium (whether truly pure helium 4 or the naturally occurring mixture which is 99.9998% helium 4) is still an extraordinarily useful cryogenic liquid for less advanced cooling, having nothing to do with dilution fridges, in a wide range of scientific and industrial contexts. It also has other niche uses like arc welding, inert gas environment, helium-neon lasers, etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium#Applications https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium#Applications
- dogma1138 10y agoThat's incorrect, Helium 3 is what is used for most applications and it's what we are in near dire shortage off. https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41419.pdf https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41419.pdf
- jessriedel 10y agoYour link just describes a few other industrial uses for helium 3 besides dilution fridges, mostly having to do with neutron absorption and nuclear polarizability (which aren't exactly household needs). This is a good contribution to this conversation, but it doesn't shows at all that helium 3 is "what is used for most applications". For the vast majority of industrial and scientific usage of helium, helium 3 does not offer much advantage.
- timlyo 10y agoWhat makes it useless/helium 3 useful?
- samch 10y agoYes, but hydrogen balloons add a whole extra dimension of fun and excitement. Inert gasses are boring.
- DonHopkins 10y agoFun, excitement, and humanity. Never forget the humanity.
- gozur88 10y agoIs hydrogen really that dangerous in small quantities? The Hindenburg had seven million cubic feet of the stuff, and half the passengers still survived.
- wvenable 10y agoWe tested this in science class -- a balloon sized quantity of hydrogen makes a very forceful explosion. Safe enough to be used in the middle of a classroom but not something you'd want small children carrying around.
- gozur88 10y agoSure, it makes a "very forceful explosion" when confined. It's not the same scenario, though.
- ajuc 10y ago> how do we deal with a public who feels that they are entitled the stuff We increase the price. By taxing it for example. Capitalism deals with the rest.
- sliverstorm 10y agoSeriously, I don't understand how strongly people seem feel about balloons. To hear some tell it, they are just as much a fundamental human right as clean water and sanitation.
- pmorici 10y agoSounds like it isn't so much scarce as we use so little of it compared to what has been historically available that no one has bothered to seriously spend time exploring for it until now.
- amelius 10y agoWe can always find some more near the top of our atmosphere :)
- pcl 10y agoAs it turns out, helium (and hydrogen) will escape Earth's atmosphere, so there's not a whole lot up there either. Here's a great Quora post on the escape process: https://www.quora.com/What-makes-hydrogen-and-helium-and-atoms-alike-flee-the-Earths-atmosphere-and-not-be-bound-by-gravity-sufficiently-to-stay-down https://www.quora.com/What-makes-hydrogen-and-helium-and-ato...