12 ms·
EU Referendum Results
- nodesocket 10y agoWow, their tech is surprisingly good for government/news.
- matthewmacleod 10y agoBBC isn't really government, and it's definitely an organisation that's often been quite advanced in pushing new broadcasting technology.
- xufi 10y agoAgreed and based on what I've read the funding package that the UK government gives them plus the TV tax (that each UK citizen has to pay with the purchase of a TV) sure helps them stay afloat
- jdietrich 10y agoWe pay a TV license annually, not a one-off tax. The BBC receives no government funding, which helps ensure its impartiality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licensing_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licensing_in_the_Un...
- capote 10y agoI think many other countries have a TV 'tax' as well. I had to pay one living in Germany just for owning a computer. Makes for great public media in many cases.
- xufi 10y agoDo you think taxes like this will go away at some point? or will it always be there in some form?
- d_j_b 10y agoSome right-wingers in the UK (e.g. the ones advocating withdrawing from the EU) would like to see it abolished (and the BBC diminished)
- capote 10y agoWhat a bummer considering the BBC is one of the greatest.
- matthewmacleod 10y agoThe BBC is consistently attacked by both right- and left-wing activists in the UK, which gives me at least a little confidence that they are trying to be balanced :)
- xufi 10y agoOh I see, perhaps I was wrong on that. A freind of mine in the UK said this. Must've got that wrong.
- areyousure 10y agoI don't understand your second sentence. The Wikipedia article you link to states "The money received is first paid into the Government's Consolidated Fund. It is subsequently included in the 'vote' for the Department of Culture, Media and Sport in that year's Appropriation Act, and passed back to the BBC for the running of the BBC's own services (free from commercial advertisements)." How do you see this as "no government funding"?
- DanBC 10y ago> the funding package that the UK government What funding package is that? Did you mean EU grants? > that each UK citizen has to pay with the purchase of a TV) The licence fee is payable if you are in the UK and watch live TV as it's broadcast. "live", "TV", and "broadcast" are defined in statute and statutory instruments.
- jdietrich 10y agoThe BBC has consistently been at the cutting edge of broadcasting since the 1930s. They have a substantial R&D department that does some very impressive work. http://www.bbc.co.uk/rd/search?Type=Projects http://www.bbc.co.uk/rd/search?Type=Projects
- _rpd 10y agoResults timeline - local (US Eastern): 3-4 a.m. (10-11 p.m.) - Results from half of the counting areas are in Around 5 a.m. (midnight) - About 80% of counting areas have reported results 7 a.m. (2 a.m.) - All votes are likely to have been counted and the official result is expected shortly after.
- StavrosK 10y agoShouldn't the title here be "UK referendum results"?
- kirrent 10y agoIs the vote for a simple majority? In my country, Australia, a referendum must achieve a double majority which means a nationwide majority and a majority in a majority of states. Are there any similar provisions for this referendum?
- sievebrain 10y agoThe referendum is not legally binding anyway. It's just a big fancy opinion poll. Albeit, the shit would hit the fan if the government ignored a leave result.
- gutnor 10y agoThe shit will hit the fan if there is no strong majority. And all the polls suggest that it is not going to be a strong majority. 50% of the population is going to be pissed. Too many bridges between both side have been burned. United will only be in the name of the country after today. This is the beginning of years of trouble ahead.
- toyg 10y agoShit had already hit the fan with the Scottish referendum and the SNP wipeout at last election. The country is split between haves and have-nots, the globalization winners in cities and South and losers elsewhere; the have-nots are easy prey for nationalisms, as it's always the case.
- jdietrich 10y agoYes, it's a simple majority.
- StavrosK 10y agoIs this going to be decided by the pure number of votes, or is it separated by region and the number of regions is what will decide the result?
- lambada 10y agoPure number of votes. THough the regions will declare separately, it's the net remain vs leave votes overall that matter.
- noobermin 10y agoA sane voting scheme...unlike what we have in the USA. IMAO of course, but I'm so A about it I don't care.
- humanrebar 10y agoDunno. Simple majority votes that change the legislative process (London vs Brussels writing laws) seems less than sane to me.
- c0g 10y agoDon't worry, in all of our normal elections it is insane.
- newjersey 10y agoThere was an opportunity to fix the insanity in an earlier referendum. Such a wasted opportunity. Probably the saddest referendum result in my lifetime https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vot...
- matthewmacleod 10y agoI'm a big fan of reforming the electoral system in the UK, but the AV referendum was an awful fudge at best, plainly just offered as a sop to the Liberal Democrats. It was genuinely one of the worst referendum campaigns of all time though. I'm still haunted by the 'if you vote for this then babies will die' adverts.
- cperciva 10y agoI'd suggest retitling this "Brexit referendum results", since I think "brexit" is a term everybody understands. dang?
- TazeTSchnitzel 10y agoWell, it's not a referendum on Brexit or a Britain remain, it's a referendum on EU membership with two options: Remain and Leave. This is unlike the Scottish independence referendum which was a Yes/No vote on if Scotland should to be independent. It's not specifically about either option this time. All that said, “Brexit referendum” is a name that's been used. (And if the result goes a certain way, well…)
- noobermin 10y ago>Brexit or a Britain remain Bremain! Get the hip abbreviations right :)
- TazeTSchnitzel 10y agoOh, I did think of that, but it feels cringeworthy…
- noobermin 10y agoBefore you blame me, I didn't think of it either...and even if I didn't I certainly wouldn't promote it.
- capote 10y agoSomething makes me feel like HN readers are aware enough to put together that a front-page HN post on some referendum happening today that has something to do with the EU is the Brexit one. If in doubt, a simple click will solve any ambiguity which could arise with the Elderberry Unicorn referendum happening in Patagonia also today.
- dang 10y agoThis is an extremely fine (not to say trivial) distinction, but there's something authentic about the perspective of that title, and since it's scoped by the domain (bbc.com) I think it's ok.
- capote 10y agoWhy are the numbers so microscopic compared to the population of the UK? Is it not a direct vote?
- cperciva 10y agoNumbers only get reported when an electoral district has finished counting. Right now only 5 of 382 districts have reported (and they're mostly small districts, which is why they finished counting so quickly).
- capote 10y agoSo are we expecting tens of millions to vote by the end? Edit: I did some math and figured it out. Thanks for the help, hehehe
- cperciva 10y agoSomewhere around 25-30 million, I think.
- alistairjcbrown 10y ago"16.8 million votes needed to win referendum" - so there would therefore be ~33.6 million votes in total.
- Reason077 10y agoEach polling area counts it's results and reports in seperately. So far the results are only in for a few areas.
- ianmcgowan 10y agoThe Guardian has an interesting map, where the size of each County is proportional to the population: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/... It gives a different perspective to the early votes coming in...
- triplesec 10y agoFollow the conversation live here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120 Also, the chances are the BBC world service radio is covering it in your area.
- evanpw 10y agoSee also: betting odds (https://electionbettingodds.com/brexit.html https://electionbettingodds.com/brexit.html). Was at 85%+ for Remain earlier today, now down to 65%.
- evanpw 10y agoNow 55% to leave!
- christianmann 10y agoNow 73% Leave.
- semberal 10y agoResults are appearing a bit sooner at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mI2o0smlVC_TyzhsnweLEayc3tRgtBxIDCotABtUIX0/htmlview?sle=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mI2o0smlVC_TyzhsnweL... and https://twitter.com/britainelects https://twitter.com/britainelects
- orf 10y agoIf you're in the UK, or have a proxy here, visit https://www.tvplayer.com https://www.tvplayer.com and watch BBC 1. It's not looking good for remain, but it's really early.
- Yhippa 10y agoWow. Everything I'd heard today pointed to them staying in the EU. As of now the leave votes are winning. This will probably be one of the big political experiments in my lifetime.
- greg5green 10y agoFrom what I saw, it'll be morning before the vote is certified. It looks like only 9 of 380ish voting districts/constituencies/etc. (sorry, I'm not British and don't know what they actually call them).
- tommoor 10y agowe call them counties
- jmedwards 10y agoThere's approx 30m votes to declare - only 1m has so far. It is early
- contravariant 10y agoIf votes were being counted in a completely random order then 1m votes would have been more than enough to determine the result with very high accuracy. Regional variations are the only reason things haven't been decided yet.
- matthewmacleod 10y agoFrom my perspective in the UK, it's been interesting (though frustrating) to watch what's been happening. It definitely seems like political discourse has taken a turn for the worse. In contrast with the Scottish independence referendum a couple of years ago which, although there was some animosity, did feel like a genuine political conversation… this one has seemed much more like an angry shouting match. I'm particularly interested in the comparison with Trump in the US. In both cases, it feels like a nominally populist, anti-bureaucratic/anti-establishment movement (the extent of the truth in that being debatable) has been able to make a substantial impact with that platform, due in part to the abject inability of that establishment to deal with and neutralise the movement.
- hackuser 10y ago> t feels like a nominally populist, anti-bureaucratic/anti-establishment movement (the extent of the truth in that being debatable) has been able to make a substantial impact with that platform, due in part to the abject inability of that establishment to deal with and neutralise the movement. It's happening all over the world: Austria, France (National Front), China, Japan, Turkey, Israel, etc etc. It's like the world forgot the lessons of the past - the curses of nationalism, populism and ideology - and nobody has stood up to remind them. The latter really angers and depresses me; nobody with a platform is making the well-known arguments about why these things are very dangerous.
- thomasahle 10y ago> It's like the world forgot the lessons of the past - the curses of nationalism, populism and ideology It could also be, that we are doing something wrong in the society, something we did better after the last wars. Such as not including everybody in the growth of the economy. At least I'd like to think we don't have to kill hundreds of millions of people every century, to make people remember...
- tyre 10y agoWe have to find something to better than fear or hate to unify nations. Company cultures have been shifting from fear-driven-development to a more human focus. Still a ways to go (especially compared with the marketing around it), but a step in the right direction.
- artursapek 10y agoI'm looking forward to seeing what the web does with the presidential election. The last election I remember paying attention to was Obama's win in 2008, and that was basically just telecast on TV.
- pash 10y agoOne of the things I dislike about graphics displaying live (or otherwise unfinalized) electoral results is that the viewer must know something about political geography in order to interpret them: Are the tallies I'm seeing in line with how those districts were supposed to vote? Is it just happenstance that the votes counted so far have come in disproportionately from districts expected to vote against the expected overall result? Please, if you work on these things, try to help us understand what we're really seeing. Otherwise, your work is for naught, because we will all learn to say, "Bah, I'll check the results in the morning." Do any of you have ideas about how better to display live results? Maybe a heat map showing the difference in the actual results versus the polled expected results?
- astonex 10y agoIf you watch the BBC live stream they do in fact give information on how the results fair in terms of what was expected. This information appears to be missing from their website however.
- mr_luc 10y agoI would like to second this -- they have a rather neat distribution that shows areas arranged in terms of leave-to-remain ratio. So as some results come in, they point out where that area was predicted to come, and whether or not the results are as predicted or surprising.
- DanBC 10y agoBBC Radio Four is doing a reasonable job of saying what's expected in each area.
- orf 10y agoSee my comment below. If you are interested in this and want to get some in depth analysis check out either BBC 1 or the BBC live blog. They cover these questions. It's hard though, there isn't much to compare as there isn't an 'expected way' regions vote. There's a rough idea, but it's seeming like these are not what people expected. My money is on Scotland and Ireland being overwhelmingly remain, Wales swinging unexpectedly to leave (partly because they are disenfranchised with the government), while in England the non urban areas going leave and the urban ones going stay.
- EGreg 10y agoSo we are on the brink of trade wars. If the UK leaves the EU it will start a trade war with the Continent. Meanwhile, if Trump gets elected he'll spur a trade war with Mexico and China. Interesting what that will lead to. Loss of jobs, for one. But what else?
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- hiram112 10y agoWhy are you assuming a trade war with Mexico or China would necessarily lead to a loss of jobs as if it were some universal law of physics. Cause the specific media that you watch says it would? I've never seen a coherent argument explaining how free trade deals have helped anyone but small groups at the expense of larger ones. In fact, the actual direct evidence of trade deals are this: 1. Massive job loss for American workers. 2. Tax losses for the communities whose factories move across borders. 3.No actual job creation in its place based on the labor participation rate (lowest since these deals became common). 4. Corporate profits at highest level since before these deals. 5. Wealth inequality approaching depression level era. Interestingly, our gini coefficient tends to approach that of Mexico and China the more we trade with them.
- JumpCrisscross 10y ago> Why are you assuming a trade war with Mexico or China would necessarily lead to a loss of jobs Strongly suggest picking up a few technical and historic economic textbooks.
- meowface 10y agoI don't agree with you, but you don't deserve to be downvoted just for presenting an argument that's unpopular here. Upvoted for visibility.
- duncan_bayne 10y agoNot many people know that the explicit goal of the early founders of the EU was to institute federalisation by stealth. They distrusted democracy (Hitler was voted into power), and chose to disguise massive political reform as economic. Monnet - one of the original drivers behind the formation of the EU - had this to say: "Europe's nations should be guided towards the Super-state without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation." To be clear, these weren't some sort of evil oligarchs at work: they wanted there to never be another WW2, another Hitler, etc. But the nature of the EU, from the outset, was much as its critics today contend. More at http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679277/History-EU-how-bureaucrats-seized-power http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679277/History-EU-how.... Correction: that is not a quote from Monnet but a summary by a contemporary of his. He actually said: "Via money Europe could become political in five years" and "… the current communities should be completed by a Finance Common Market which would lead us to European economic unity. Only then would … the mutual commitments make it fairly easy to produce the political union which is the goal.
- icebraining 10y agoWhen and where did Monnet say that?
- duncan_bayne 10y agoI stand corrected - that wasn't a Monnet quote but a summary of his position by a contemporary. Monnet actually said: "Via money Europe could become political in five years" and "… the current communities should be completed by a Finance Common Market which would lead us to European economic unity. Only then would … the mutual commitments make it fairly easy to produce the political union which is the goal."
- matthewmacleod 10y agoThere is truth in that, and denying it would be silly. There was a definite idea in the founding of the EU that the goal was a post-nation state, closer integration, fiscal and political union and so on. That being said, I think there is an increasing feeling within the EU that this is no longer the correct approach.
- owenversteeg 10y agoWow, I knew that all the non-attached parts of the UK would want to remain, but not by this much. Both the Shetland and Orkney islands voted to stay by a fair margin, about 65% Remain, but Gibraltar was far more heavily Remain. Gibraltar, for example, had 96% vote to stay, with 85% turnout (!). This is partly because the islands are far more dependent on the EU than the mainland, but in Gibraltar's case it is particularly extreme. Without EU membership Gibraltar may not be able to have a border with Spain due to the territorial conflict. Spain already occasionally closes the border on a whim, for example when a Spanish fishing boat was arrested for illegally fishing in Gibraltar waters. [edit] I don't want to get into a debate (w/commenter below) but basically both the UK and Spain claim that they own all the waters. International rulings so far seem to be leaning towards giving the UK some and Spain some; a lot of these rulings come from the EU courts which is yet another reason why those in Gibraltar have a very strong interest to stay. While I'm amending my comment, I think it's interesting that there were any Gibraltar citizens who voted to leave. This shows that there is a solid 8% of the population or so that will vote how they feel is important despite a very strong economic incentive to the contrary. I'm simultaneously surprised at how few people voted to leave (only 4%!) and at how there were still people who voted to leave despite the obvious economic problems leaving would bring to Gibraltar.
- saool 10y agoGibraltar does not have waters: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disputed_status_of_Gibraltar#Territorial_waters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disputed_status_of_Gibraltar#T...
- hencq 10y agoThe University of East Anglia have a live blog as well that updates their predictions based on statistical model [0] by Dr Chris Hanretty. Predictions are based on how results differ from the prior model. The model is explained in more detail here [1]. [0] http://www.ueapolitics.org/2016/06/23/eu-referendum-allnighter/ http://www.ueapolitics.org/2016/06/23/eu-referendum-allnight... [1] http://www.ueapolitics.org/2016/06/09/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night/ http://www.ueapolitics.org/2016/06/09/the-eu-referendum-what... Edit: They moved their blog to Medium because of the demand: https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.5jm66pitl https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-fore...
- cperciva 10y agoIn case those links continue to have database problems, you can also read Chris Hanretty's updates via twitter: https://twitter.com/chrishanretty https://twitter.com/chrishanretty
- wanda 10y agoFinancial Times: http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/liveblogs/2016-06-22/ http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/liveblogs/2016-06-22/
- excalibur 10y agoThat last update took the chances of leaving from 68% to 97%. Looks like a mistake to me.
- danieltillett 10y agoWhy? Of course the model might be making a wrong prediction, but if I had a betting account betting on leave looks very tempting.
- ubernostrum 10y agoMaybe be glad you don't have a betting account. I wouldn't trust anyone who thinks they can model this to the point of literally attaching "p=1.0", this early on.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- xentronium 10y agoHaving a "tie" key for the region map is a cute detail, but how necessary is it really?
- alva 10y agoOne of my favourite part of this whole thing is seeing just how little my friendship group understand how much FB/Twitter are self-selecting echochambers. My feeds are full of people who just absolutely cannot believe that other people hold "wrong opinions".
- hueving 10y agoI think this is one of the major reasons for our awful political discourse now. Everyone self-selects into echo chambers and it gets so bad that they can't even fathom how someone could disagree with them as they pass around strawman memes of 'the wrong side'.
- insickness 10y agoThen at the end of the day, you must perceive the opposing side as inherently bad in some way. It's amazing how so few people can remain friends with people who have differing viewpoints.
- ars 10y agoNever mind friends. I would settle for simply realizing that the other person has a viewpoint is different from yours, and yet perfectly reasonable. Anytime you see calls for "sanity" or the like you know the person is completely incapable of seeing something from another point of view. I've started to use it as a code word for "don't listen to this person".
- WillPostForFood 10y agoMust? http://www.usnews.com/cmsmedia/a5/17ab3ad562e0a695610defe0010be6/10344FE_PR_090401pastpresent_reagantip.jpg http://www.usnews.com/cmsmedia/a5/17ab3ad562e0a695610defe001...
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- chjohasbrouck 10y ago
- xufi 10y agoIf this goes with "REMAIN", Does this still leave the possibility of Scotland wanting to "Leave" ? I've read a few articles about it and it seems the Scots were contemplating leaving
- pbae 10y agoYou have it backwards. The English are on the fence about it, but the Scots want to remain by a huge margin. If the UK votes to leave, it's very likely that it will trigger a re-referendum for Scotland to leave the UK and rejoin the EU.
- xufi 10y agoI see intersting, must've got those mixed. We'll see how it goes
- MBCook 10y agoSomething I hadn't considered was the breakdown between the individual UK nations. What happens if the UK as a whole decides to leave the euro zone, perhaps by a small margin or perhaps by a lot, but for some reason Scotland decides buy a 15% margin to stay in the euro zone. Is there any reason to think we might see Scotland decide to stay with the euro zone it leave the UK in that case? Or are the ties so strong that the UK would probably stay together no matter what even if one of the member nations has a strongly different opinion?
- tellarin 10y agoI'm on my phone now, so I can't find a link. But yes, some politicians in Scotland have already said they'd have another referendum to leave the UK if it leaves the EU. I wonder what will happen in Northern Ireland. My understanding is that it will be split in half in terms of voting leave/remain.
- kspaans 10y agoThe SNP has essentially already promised to hold IndyRef2 if that's the case.
- matthewmacleod 10y ago(Just a heads-up, the Eurozone and the EU are different – the former is the currency union under the Euro, and membership of the latter is what the referendum is about. Not all members of the EU are members of the Eurozone). Scotland had an independence referendum less than two years ago, where the outcome was a good 45%-55% in favour of remaining in the UK. However, the majority of representatives in Scotland remain pro-Scottish independence. Continued membership of the EU was an important argument during the independence campaign – with the pro-independence side wanting to remain, and the pro-UK side warning that Scotland would lose EU membership if it voted for independence. It's likely – but not certain – that there would be a second independence referendum in Scotland on the basis of being 'forced' to exit the EU. But it's not going to be pretty, and there have been a lot of elections in Scotland recently – no doubt everyone is getting a bit fatigued. It's not clear at all what the outcome would be, either, or if Scotland would even be able to maintain EU membership.
- joeyspn 10y agoThe pound is in free fall (-7%)... http://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd-chart http://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd-chart This is going to hurt... Edit: now rebounding... Remain is winning now thanks to London.
- lettergram 10y agoTime to gobble up some pounds.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- guelo 10y agomeh, it's still trading around the same levels as it has been since January.
- calsy 10y agoCan someone give me 3 good reasons why the UK should stay in the EU? Thanks.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- totoz 10y agoYou are downvoted because there are no good reasons at all.
- calsy 10y agoI just like some well explained answers that's all. Why do people care so much if there are no reasons to stay? Is it the stock market? Is it immigration? I'm not after an argument, i'm an average joe who works and has a family. Explain to me why important to vote remain, thats all.
- raphman_ 10y agoRequesting exactly three reasons sounds quite trollish... A Leave vote would probably negatively affect many European research projects. The EU's framework programmes [1] are funding many collaborations and exchange programs. If the UK leaves, non-British researchers might need to to leave the UK, British universities would get isolated from the rest of European academia, long-term projects would have their funding canceled, etc. Even if EU and UK somehow would find a way to continue research cooperations, the uncertainty will have negative consequences right now. While this might not directly affect the average joe, it would negatively affect quite a few people I know. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framework_Programmes_for_Research_and_Technological_Development https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framework_Programmes_for_Resea...
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- bane 10y agoPrediction? UK will stay, but it will be uncomfortably close.
- Anderkent 10y agoSeems pretty much impossible for remain to win at this point
- Scirra_Tom 10y agoGBP USD bouncing from 1.40 to 1.50, insane amounts of volatility: https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd Amateur guestimate, remain will see 1.55, leave will see 1.30
- tptacek 10y agoI'm surprised "Leave" is doing as well as it is in Scotland, which is not only more liberal than the UK as a whole, but also somewhat more European --- "Leave" is essentially a solidarity vote with England, isn't it? You might wonder, if "Leave" wins, whether Scotland's next independence referendum won't succeed as well.
- chimeracoder 10y ago> I'm surprised "Leave" is doing as well as it is in Scotland, which is not only more liberal than the UK as a whole, but also somewhat more European --- "Leave" is essentially a solidarity vote with England, isn't it? I think it's the opposite. IIRC, if Scotland votes to leave but the rest of the UK doesn't, the Scottish independence movement leaders have said that that will renew their push for another independence referendum. I wouldn't be surprised if Scottish voters viewed 'Leave' vs. 'Remain' as a proxy vote for leaving the UK, rather than the EU, and were voting with that in mind (even if they would want to be part of the EU as an independent Scotland).
- lsd5you 10y agoThe apparent liberalness of Scotland is largely just rhetorical opposition to the rest of the UK's policies. On actual policy issues (e.g. appropriate level of welfare) Scotland polls much like the rest of the UK. Of course they to some extent would prefer European masters to English ones. However they also spent a long time convincing themselves of the feasability of a much deeper divorce, so they probably did not buy into the economic doom stories. Apparently the low oil price has banished the prospect of Scottish independence for now at least.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- carwyn 10y agoI don't think this is a vote for the the #brexit campaign as such. The major exit votes are from working class areas that are traditionally Labour meaning this could be more of a #Lexit which was hardly covered in the mainstream media. This is also a general protest vote against the establishment not just the EU.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- selectron 10y agoHere is a good site which converts betting odds to probabilities: https://electionbettingodds.com/brexit.html https://electionbettingodds.com/brexit.html
- MichaelGG 10y agoWith anti-Jewish sentiment, from Mein Kampf and other sources I see, is mainly about some shadowy conspiracy. Anti-Islam sentiment seems to be based on concrete actions (though with fearful, only somewhat-justified extrapolation perhaps) by people identifying with Islam, as well as Islam-majority countries' actions. EU and US leaders seem to keep on stating there's nothing wrong with Islam, while e.g. Islamic countries still have the death penalty for non-straight or non-cis people. It seems like doublespeak to say it's great, yet not admit the obvious problems. Anyone speaking up and pointing this "emperor's clothing" situation out is going to resonate well with people. I've considered myself very left and liberal for most of my life, yet I'm now viewing these right-wing parties favorably. Maybe I'm getting older (34) and losing my grip, or maybe there's some serious issues. If I'm getting this wrong, please tell me. I have a hard time seeing how rational people can come to a different result on this matter. Note I'm not saying anything about individual Muslims, just that no one seems to want to recognize the obvious problems that many people's beliefs seem to have. No offense intended; please let me know what I'm missing. (FWIW I'm against all religion.)
- sawthat 10y ago"The reason this bath water is so dirty is that there is a baby in it" Policy matters. The right wing proposal is religious discrimination. In the US we don't make exceptions for religions we don't like. You don't have to like Islam. You can believe that Islam is fundamentally incompatible with western pluralism. If you are American the moment you decide that's a good reason to start getting ok with religious discrimination is when you've given up on the very ideals this country was founded on.
- kiba 10y agoIt is indeed precisely the wrong response. By reinforcing the idea that Islam is a threat to the pluralism of Western society, we're also reinforcing extremists' narrative about a clash of civilization. Really, the only winning move is not to play. That is, treat terrorist attacks as normal crimes and let the police handle it.
- 10y ago
- yummyfajitas 10y agoI hold the belief that the apocalyptic predictions of Brexit are mostly bunk, and Britain will soldier on. I additionally believe that the market is overreacting. Can anyone more familiar with UK markets offer suggestions on how I can trade this opinion?
- smcl 10y agoSince it's looking like a "Leave" right now I just wanted to share Limmy's post-brexit masterplan. https://storify.com/576c9f3a3eb177be42c27c82 https://storify.com/576c9f3a3eb177be42c27c82
- dankohn1 10y agoThis is such a tragedy. How many voters and observers understand than that European project was never primarily about economics? It was a political project that has produced 71 years "since an army crossed the Rhine with fire and sword" [0]. And now, we can watch as the project that has brought peace and prosperity to more than almost any in history unravels. And yes, Europe has been failed by horrendous, narrow-minded economic policies of the EU, but a previous generation of leaders who still remembered the horrors of war would not have sacrificed Europe for their own narrow benefits. [0] http://delong.typepad.com/delong_long_form/2015/01/the-future-of-the-european-project-and-the-future-of-the-eurozone-a-talk-from-2013-the-honest-broker-for-the-week-of-janua.html http://delong.typepad.com/delong_long_form/2015/01/the-futur...
- rukittenme 10y agoI think you're wrong to despair. The Europe of < 1910 was very different. Socially, politically, and economically. If the EU dissolved today, I don't believe France and Germany would be at war within 200 years. So long as strong democratic values persist in Europe, peace, I think, is a certainty.
- afarrell 10y agoThere is currently war in Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Ukrainian_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Ukrainian_cr...
- rukittenme 10y agoYes but Russia is not a member of the EU and its not really a democracy.
- thomasahle 10y agoThere's never been a war between EU countries though.
- toyg 10y agoNobody believed a dissolved Yugoslavia would be at war either. Ethnic cleansing followed. People don't realize how easy things can snowball, once you let in darkness. Watch this movie, it's brilliant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Second_Civil_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Second_Civil_War
- diakritikal 10y agoI think this almost guarantees the break up of the UK (if the result stays with the leave Eu campaign). Scotland is voting overwhelmingly to remain in the EU. I doubt we'll stand by and stomach a far right dogwhistle government. Most of the politicians advocating leaving the EU also want to abolish the Scottish parliament.
- sbmassey 10y agoI'd like to see an independant Scotland, but I wonder if they would actually vote for independence this time around, even in the face of a Leave vote: the low price of oil, and the chaotic state of the EU might make that look too scary for the Scots
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- sandworm101 10y agoFirst the Brits, then in a couple months the Americans. There is only so much room in Canada.
- eru 10y agoWouldn't the Brits move to France or Germany?
- sandworm101 10y agoThey'll move to Scotland, which will shortly seek to depart from the south. I cannot wait to see the Queen going through passport control on her way to Balmoral.
- eru 10y agoWhy would she need to? She can stay the head of state of all the countries the UK might split into. (She's also Queen of all Australian states individually.)
- dewiz 10y agoSky news is now projecting OUT, ie given the trend looks like UK will leave EU. Anyway, still many votes to come, margin is around 800k votes so far.
- dewiz 10y ago1M votes margin, many news channels are giving it for granted. It woukd be fun to see reporters react to a sudden reversal though
- hackuser 10y agoIf the polls immediately beforehand don't match the election results, why do we assume the polls are wrong? Maybe it's the election that's wrong - maybe it's been fixed. To be clear: I have no other evidence of a fix, nor am I talking only about this election. I'm saying, the question needs to be asked and the problem needs to be dealt with proactively through security and other means. But here are some thoughts: * Security requires making an attack more costly than its worth. How much are the results of a major election worth? It's priceless, existential even to some. The fates of nations and billions to trillions of dollars could be on the line. State intelligence services have many motivations to control the outcome. Is it even possible to secure something that valuable? * Elections have been fixed for generations - probably for as long as there have been elections; it's certainly plausible that someone would try and succeed. * The systems that need securing are not in a locked room, but spread across a nation, with a large number of operators. Again, very hard to secure. Finally, at least in the U.S., election systems aren't know for their security. * If it was fixed, would anyone investigate? Would they even want to know? It would undermine the fundamental mechanism of democracy. What if the U.S. presidential election was fixed, what would happen? A do-over? * Other than smoking guns, what better evidence could we have of a fix than a mis-match between pre-election polls and the outcome? In short, there's a very strong motive, long-established precedent, and opportunity.
- adrenalinelol 10y agoI think this is a dire inditement for neoliberalism; nearly everyone expected this to go the other way: the markets, the media, the polls... When the stats are analyzed, I assume the people who suffer from globalization will be the ones who made up a bulk of the leave vote. The question is why wouldn't they vote the way they did? Free trade is a lose lose for them, damned if they do, damned if they don't.
- owenversteeg 10y agoThe BBC just announced that "Britain has voted to leave the European Union". Leave only needs 2,105,984 more votes to win. [edit 12:15am EST] 1,715,256 votes now and closing fast. [edit 12:19am EST] 1,196,678 [edit 12:27am EST] 894,189 [edit 12:31am EST] 785,549 [edit 12:37am EST] 741,795 [edit 12:38am EST] 592,337 [edit 12:45am EST] 448,596 [edit 12:46am EST] 373,532 [edit 12:51am EST] 308,519 [edit 12:57am EST] 94,635 [edit 1:00am EST] 37,665 [edit 1:02am EST] 0. The UK has officially voted to leave. Predicted result: Leave 52%, Remain 48% Wow. So what happens now? - Scotland voted 62% Remain. The SNP said it will call a second independence referendum if Leave wins. Many estimate that the independence movement will win this time around. Literally every single Scottish division voted to remain. - Gibraltar will probably be royally screwed [0] as well as some other areas that are heavily dependent on trade/travel with EU countries - The pound drops like a rock. Was stable at $1.48 all day, peaked at $1.50 earlier after Remain was doing well (~6pm EST), now at $1.33 (12:13am EST), now at $1.32 (12:21am EST) and the lowest level since 1985. In 1985 it hit $1.08, which was then the lowest value in a very long time. - The pound is down 17% from the yen by the way. - Other independence movements in other EU countries gain a bit of legitimacy. The euro drops (currently at $1.09, down four cents or 3%), and the yen gains (currently up 6%) (12:25am EST) - For those of us fortunate enough to have our savings in dollars, everything denominated in pounds is currently on a 12% off sale. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11965342 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11965342
- chris_wot 10y agoComplete and utter madness. I think it's time for Australia to become a Republic, I'm not sure why we'd want to stick with the U.K. at this point.
- owenversteeg 10y agoAt least the Australian dollar isn't taking as much of a beating; it's only down to $0.73 from $0.77 - only 5% loss.
- chris_wot 10y agoI think our exporters must be feeling pretty chuffed :-)
- aaron695 10y ago> Complete and utter madness. Because Britain left? And the response to this madness of leaving is to also leave?
- chris_wot 10y agoWell, it's not like we are leaving anything that gives us any real benefit. Like, we might have had more access to EU markets as we are part of a constitutional monarchy, but that's not valid any more. At least I have the pleasure of knowing that Brits have to through all the border rules and lack of freedom of movement now. No more "pop over to Paris" for the weekend, or any other part of Europe!
- jsmeaton 10y agoI wonder if referendums should have a higher bar than 50% against the status quo. Referendums are reserved for big changes (generally) or constitutional changes, and the population can be extremely fickle. A 50% target might go one way or another depending on the week or month you call it - and probably doesn't represent a true majority, especially in a state where voting is optional. The ramifications can be very large and shouldn't be expected to change again for a very long time. If a higher percentage was thought to be a good idea, what would that percentage be? 60/40? 55/65? 70/30? I'm not advocating for this by the way, just figure it might be an interesting thought experiment.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- zepto 10y agoYeah - or at least 50% of the population vs 50% of the turnout.
- tomcorrigan 10y agoI'm inclined to agree given that voting is not compulsory. In Australia, where voting in all elections and referenda is compulsory, I would have to stridently disagree. I suspect the result today was skewed by the big swing towards the 'Remain' vote following the assassination of Jo Cox causing a lot of 'Remain' voters choosing to stay at home in the expectation of 'Remain' comfortably prevailing.
- jsmeaton 10y agoI'm Australian, but I'm still not sure a 50/50 split on something so important is right. At least here in Australia you need a 50% total and a 50% of states. I don't think the extra requirement of locality would have prevented the leave in the UK though - it seems only London and Scotland really led the way for the stay vote. > I suspect the result today was skewed by the big swing towards the 'Remain' vote following the assassination of Jo Cox That's kind of what I'm getting at. With a vote so close it's almost a decision that could change day to day, or depending upon the weather. For a vote that can only happen every decade or three I don't think 50% is a high enough bar for change.
- dang 10y agoSince we don't need one story about this at #1 and another at #2, I guess we'll call this thread the dupe and consider the discussion moved to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11966167 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11966167.