9 ms·

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too e

by jblow 10y ago

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less than 10 years should be a clue of some kind.

vkou 10y ago
Point #3 has always been true. Tesla has been having difficulties scaling production or making ship dates for years, now. I've yet to see anything that will convince me that they will ship 500,000 cars in 2018.
erk__ 10y ago
Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" some places, model s cost 120000 USD for the cheapest model.
- orik 10y ago
  Tesla's are really affordable cars in other places (Norway), due to tax incentives for electric vehicles over vehicles.
  - dagw 10y ago
    Not really, the basic no frills model S starts at over $80k. Sure that's a lot cheaper than other cars in the same performance class, but that's a far cry from being affordable.
  - izacus 10y ago
    A car that still costs 60.000EUR (and that's a really stripped down model) after incentives is nowhere near "affordable" for most of Europe, much less world.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- savagej 10y ago
  You must be inhaling ICE exhaust.A new Tesla Model S is $76.5k https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design
  - epoch1970 10y ago
    $75,000 is still about 2 times the cost of a brand new traditional luxury car. It's about 3 to 4 times the cost of a brand new lower-end or mid-range car. It's 10 to 20 times the cost of a used car. Maybe $75,000 isn't as unaffordable as $120,000, but it's not exactly cheap for most car consumers.
    - _asummers 10y ago
      That is precisely is why the Model 3 will be $35k, less than half your stated cost. Not everyone needs a Model S.
      - deelowe 10y ago
        > Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" Operative word is "still." The 3 isn't out yet.
  - krzyk 10y ago
    Does this include taxes (and in which country)? Buying Tesla in UE (in country that doesn't do subsidies) taxes can be +30%, not taking into account the $->euro conversion rate (which is artificially increased by the sellers).
apalmer 10y ago
There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. Toyota is not a lumbering clumsy inefficient organization, it is a sharp nimble efficient organization... It only makes rational sense that Tesla should follow their lead
- tmptmp 10y ago
  >>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars. Another thing, it should not be too difficult for us to grant that Elon Musk is not a fool to make that big a statement without doing some homework. Also, don't forget the current state of the art of the technology/engineering/processes he may employ now that Toyota could (and still can) only dream of.
  - apalmer 10y ago
    What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of competition, crony government contracts, in an industry that is primarily product engineering driven that requires a small volume manufacturing of extreme high complexity vehicles In Tesla he is competing against highly efficient opponents who have been in a dog eat dog survival of the fittest competition for going on 40 years which is only somewhat product engineering driven and high volume manufacturing of relatively low complexity vehicles. Tesla can overcome this... possibly but it is a huge challenge that a responsible investor cannot sweep under the rug...
Gracana 10y ago
Those statements are all still largely true, they haven't been "cycled through." There are a lot of good things happening in the world of electric cars, but right now, for most people, they're too expensive and they require sacrifices in utility and convenience that aren't seen in ICE vehicles.
- stupidcar 10y ago
  The Model X has 250 mile range. But you think it's "largely true" that electric cars have a range problem? There are ~600 charging stations worldwide, and that's increasing to 1200 during 2016. But you think it's "largely true" that there's no charging infrastructure?
  - SwellJoe 10y ago
    Not the person you're responding to, but yes and yes. 600 charging stations worldwide? That's worse than I thought. I'm traveling across country as we speak (I live in an RV). I've seen one electric car charging option in the past few weeks...I've filled up over a dozen times in that period. Realistically speaking, you cannot take an electric car on vacation. That doesn't mean I don't love electric cars (I even held TSLA for a while before needing to sell some stocks for a major purchase...I kept my GOOG and sold my TSLA). One can love electric cars while still acknowledging what they cannot yet do. There was a time when horses were a better cross country means of transit than automobiles because there wasn't infrastructure for cars yet. We're at that stage for electric cars. It'll pass.
    - arethuza 10y ago
      Maybe that's 600 Tesla provided charging stations - there ~4000 electric car charging stations in the UK alone: https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/ https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/
    - rchowe 10y ago
      You may not have seen that many dedicated electric car charging outlets, but I bet many of the RV parks you've stayed at have a 220 V / 50 A NEMA 10-5 connector, which can give you about 30 miles of charge per hour in a Tesla. Not a supercharger, but decent. Availability of non-Tesla electric charging depends vastly on where you are. In the northeast, there are a bunch of places that have 2-4 EV spaces with a CHAdeMO connector which (anecdotally) are always full. So if you're planning a trip cross-country, you basically have to stick to the interstates for superchargers. If you have an RV, you probably think that traveling cross-country via only the interstates is a pretty bad way to see the sights though :).
tacos 10y ago
"Shipping is a feature." Imagine someone rear-ends your current gas-guzzler and the insurance company totals it. Now try and buy one of the damn things. Over the air suspension upgrades are great. So is being able to walk onto a lot and drive a car home. EDIT: "Pretty sure you can have one delivered like, next day." Love the HN optimism. As if my comment didn't imply that I just got fuckin' rear ended and tried to buy one of the damn things. Website says June on the S. I was told July. X is several months out (no firm date). You know what really sucks about talking to a salesman on the lot? Being told, "ain't got any and you can't have one." EDIT 2: CPO? If I'm going to pay $130,000 for a used car it better come with C3PO. The pre-owned market is warped because you can't buy a new one. It's all part of being unable to meet demand. My argument stands.
- rco8786 10y ago
  Pretty sure you can have one delivered like, next day. And not have to deal with the salesman on the lot.
- mikeash 10y ago
  Tesla has CPOs and inventory cars you can get much faster. Of course you're limited in your choices then, just like buying inventory from a dealer.
Spooky23 10y ago
Most of those things are still true. A duded-up Honda Accord is a better value than an Everyman Tesla in every category.
- programmer_dude 10y ago
  How about safety?
- givinguflac 10y ago
  This is just crazy wrong. The Tesla S is insanely more safe, energy efficient, gets about the same amount of range, and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race. Are you saying its a better value because it would be less expensive? You could say a $20 POS android phone is a better value than a galaxy s7 because it costs less and does mostly the same stuff, but it doesn't make that true.
  - gutnor 10y ago
    > and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race Yeah, that's just the right argument. I'm sure you are talking about taking your car to the track, no driving like a reckless idiot.
    - dragontamer 10y ago
      Funny thing is, Tesla Model S isn't your best value for money as a track car either. Its 4500lbs minimum, the P85D is even heavier (larger batteries I guess?). Its got a skidpad turn of .85g, while the good high-performance cars are .95g or higher. A $25,000 Subaru WRX achieves 5-star safety rating and gets 1:45 Laguna Seca lap time. The Tesla Model S "Performance Edition" gets a 1:48 Laguna Seca lap time. https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-seca-lap-times https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-s... I think its weight forces the Tesla S to take slower and wider turns, while the more nimble cars manage to beat it on the Track. Once you leave the 30k price range and into the cars that are ACTUALLY competing against the Tesla Model S, you start getting to Cadelac CTS-V and faster cars. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la6BZ89Z6bs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la6BZ89Z6bs 1:38 on the CTS-V. And yes, the CTS-V is a large 4000lb luxury 4-door sedan. Its price, size, and weight-competitive against the Model S.
cletus 10y ago
No offense intended but you come off sounding like a True Believer here. There have been and continue to be severe limitations on electric cars: - high cost of batteries - limited range largely limits them to urban settings - materials currently required for manufacturer are limited - cold weather reduces battery effectiveness and thus range - time to charge is a huge issue compared to simply refilling a tank - charging stations require a massive and expensive infrastructure upgrade for widespread use - cost - unproven reliability. This is partly an issue of the technology being so new but even Tesla says the batteries need to be replaced after ~8 years. Battery technology has come a long way in the last 20 years. It's already enabled a bunch of applications that are hugely significant (eg smartphones, drones) to the point where I think that a massive breakthrough in battery technology may well be the most important discovery of the 21st century as the consequences will be so staggeringly massive. So I'm not saying the electric vehicles are the future or that they aren't. The future is hard to predict. Regardless, putting liquid fuels into vehicles is here for some time to come yet.
- icebraining 10y ago
  Time to charge is not a huge issue, you can simply replace the battery for a full one. Tesla has an automated battery swap station that can replace one in 90 seconds.
  - stevep98 10y ago
    Those battery swap stations were mixed (... For now?) http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a25872/elon-musk-tesla-battery-swap/ http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a25...
    - cletus 10y ago
      I think you mean "nixed". Whatever the case, I tend to agree that battery swaps is not a scalable solution.
      - icebraining 10y ago
toddmorey 10y ago
Edward Niedermeyer (the author of this particular opinion pieces) hates Telsa, loves Toyota. Pretty clear if you have followed any of his articles.
api 10y ago
Same thing with reusable rockets. First it won't work, now it won't be economical. These are moribund industries where nothing has changed since the 60s. After a while they've come to believe that nothing can change. Lithium is more common in Earth's crust than lead and many other materials that are mined in significantly greater quantities.
- apalmer 10y ago
  the automotive industry has not changed since the 60s? Your just making completely factually inaccurate statements.
TYPE_FASTER 10y ago
And SpaceX will never be able to launch and re-use a rocket. And residential solar will never be mainstream. I get the point of the original article, production manufacturing at this scale is a whole different animal from making products at lesser volumes for early adopters. But there's another way to look at it. It's another challenge. And so far, Tesla has been up to the challenge. And so has SpaceX.

by jblow 10y ago

vkou 10y ago

Point #3 has always been true. Tesla has been having difficulties scaling production or making ship dates for years, now. I've yet to see anything that will convince me that they will ship 500,000 cars in 2018.

erk__ 10y ago

Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" some places, model s cost 120000 USD for the cheapest model.

orik 10y ago
Tesla's are really affordable cars in other places (Norway), due to tax incentives for electric vehicles over vehicles.
- dagw 10y ago
  Not really, the basic no frills model S starts at over $80k. Sure that's a lot cheaper than other cars in the same performance class, but that's a far cry from being affordable.
- izacus 10y ago
  A car that still costs 60.000EUR (and that's a really stripped down model) after incentives is nowhere near "affordable" for most of Europe, much less world.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
savagej 10y ago
You must be inhaling ICE exhaust.A new Tesla Model S is $76.5k https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design
- epoch1970 10y ago
  $75,000 is still about 2 times the cost of a brand new traditional luxury car. It's about 3 to 4 times the cost of a brand new lower-end or mid-range car. It's 10 to 20 times the cost of a used car. Maybe $75,000 isn't as unaffordable as $120,000, but it's not exactly cheap for most car consumers.
  - _asummers 10y ago
    That is precisely is why the Model 3 will be $35k, less than half your stated cost. Not everyone needs a Model S.
    - deelowe 10y ago
      > Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" Operative word is "still." The 3 isn't out yet.
- krzyk 10y ago
  Does this include taxes (and in which country)? Buying Tesla in UE (in country that doesn't do subsidies) taxes can be +30%, not taking into account the $->euro conversion rate (which is artificially increased by the sellers).

apalmer 10y ago

There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. Toyota is not a lumbering clumsy inefficient organization, it is a sharp nimble efficient organization... It only makes rational sense that Tesla should follow their lead

tmptmp 10y ago
>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars. Another thing, it should not be too difficult for us to grant that Elon Musk is not a fool to make that big a statement without doing some homework. Also, don't forget the current state of the art of the technology/engineering/processes he may employ now that Toyota could (and still can) only dream of.
- apalmer 10y ago
  What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of competition, crony government contracts, in an industry that is primarily product engineering driven that requires a small volume manufacturing of extreme high complexity vehicles In Tesla he is competing against highly efficient opponents who have been in a dog eat dog survival of the fittest competition for going on 40 years which is only somewhat product engineering driven and high volume manufacturing of relatively low complexity vehicles. Tesla can overcome this... possibly but it is a huge challenge that a responsible investor cannot sweep under the rug...

Gracana 10y ago

Those statements are all still largely true, they haven't been "cycled through." There are a lot of good things happening in the world of electric cars, but right now, for most people, they're too expensive and they require sacrifices in utility and convenience that aren't seen in ICE vehicles.

stupidcar 10y ago
The Model X has 250 mile range. But you think it's "largely true" that electric cars have a range problem? There are ~600 charging stations worldwide, and that's increasing to 1200 during 2016. But you think it's "largely true" that there's no charging infrastructure?
- SwellJoe 10y ago
  Not the person you're responding to, but yes and yes. 600 charging stations worldwide? That's worse than I thought. I'm traveling across country as we speak (I live in an RV). I've seen one electric car charging option in the past few weeks...I've filled up over a dozen times in that period. Realistically speaking, you cannot take an electric car on vacation. That doesn't mean I don't love electric cars (I even held TSLA for a while before needing to sell some stocks for a major purchase...I kept my GOOG and sold my TSLA). One can love electric cars while still acknowledging what they cannot yet do. There was a time when horses were a better cross country means of transit than automobiles because there wasn't infrastructure for cars yet. We're at that stage for electric cars. It'll pass.
  - arethuza 10y ago
    Maybe that's 600 Tesla provided charging stations - there ~4000 electric car charging stations in the UK alone: https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/ https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/
  - rchowe 10y ago
    You may not have seen that many dedicated electric car charging outlets, but I bet many of the RV parks you've stayed at have a 220 V / 50 A NEMA 10-5 connector, which can give you about 30 miles of charge per hour in a Tesla. Not a supercharger, but decent. Availability of non-Tesla electric charging depends vastly on where you are. In the northeast, there are a bunch of places that have 2-4 EV spaces with a CHAdeMO connector which (anecdotally) are always full. So if you're planning a trip cross-country, you basically have to stick to the interstates for superchargers. If you have an RV, you probably think that traveling cross-country via only the interstates is a pretty bad way to see the sights though :).

tacos 10y ago

"Shipping is a feature." Imagine someone rear-ends your current gas-guzzler and the insurance company totals it. Now try and buy one of the damn things. Over the air suspension upgrades are great. So is being able to walk onto a lot and drive a car home. EDIT: "Pretty sure you can have one delivered like, next day." Love the HN optimism. As if my comment didn't imply that I just got fuckin' rear ended and tried to buy one of the damn things. Website says June on the S. I was told July. X is several months out (no firm date). You know what really sucks about talking to a salesman on the lot? Being told, "ain't got any and you can't have one." EDIT 2: CPO? If I'm going to pay $130,000 for a used car it better come with C3PO. The pre-owned market is warped because you can't buy a new one. It's all part of being unable to meet demand. My argument stands.

rco8786 10y ago
Pretty sure you can have one delivered like, next day. And not have to deal with the salesman on the lot.
mikeash 10y ago
Tesla has CPOs and inventory cars you can get much faster. Of course you're limited in your choices then, just like buying inventory from a dealer.

Spooky23 10y ago

Most of those things are still true. A duded-up Honda Accord is a better value than an Everyman Tesla in every category.

programmer_dude 10y ago
How about safety?
givinguflac 10y ago
This is just crazy wrong. The Tesla S is insanely more safe, energy efficient, gets about the same amount of range, and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race. Are you saying its a better value because it would be less expensive? You could say a $20 POS android phone is a better value than a galaxy s7 because it costs less and does mostly the same stuff, but it doesn't make that true.
- gutnor 10y ago
  > and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race Yeah, that's just the right argument. I'm sure you are talking about taking your car to the track, no driving like a reckless idiot.
  - dragontamer 10y ago
    Funny thing is, Tesla Model S isn't your best value for money as a track car either. Its 4500lbs minimum, the P85D is even heavier (larger batteries I guess?). Its got a skidpad turn of .85g, while the good high-performance cars are .95g or higher. A $25,000 Subaru WRX achieves 5-star safety rating and gets 1:45 Laguna Seca lap time. The Tesla Model S "Performance Edition" gets a 1:48 Laguna Seca lap time. https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-seca-lap-times https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-s... I think its weight forces the Tesla S to take slower and wider turns, while the more nimble cars manage to beat it on the Track. Once you leave the 30k price range and into the cars that are ACTUALLY competing against the Tesla Model S, you start getting to Cadelac CTS-V and faster cars. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la6BZ89Z6bs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la6BZ89Z6bs 1:38 on the CTS-V. And yes, the CTS-V is a large 4000lb luxury 4-door sedan. Its price, size, and weight-competitive against the Model S.

cletus 10y ago

No offense intended but you come off sounding like a True Believer here. There have been and continue to be severe limitations on electric cars: - high cost of batteries - limited range largely limits them to urban settings - materials currently required for manufacturer are limited - cold weather reduces battery effectiveness and thus range - time to charge is a huge issue compared to simply refilling a tank - charging stations require a massive and expensive infrastructure upgrade for widespread use - cost - unproven reliability. This is partly an issue of the technology being so new but even Tesla says the batteries need to be replaced after ~8 years. Battery technology has come a long way in the last 20 years. It's already enabled a bunch of applications that are hugely significant (eg smartphones, drones) to the point where I think that a massive breakthrough in battery technology may well be the most important discovery of the 21st century as the consequences will be so staggeringly massive. So I'm not saying the electric vehicles are the future or that they aren't. The future is hard to predict. Regardless, putting liquid fuels into vehicles is here for some time to come yet.

icebraining 10y ago
Time to charge is not a huge issue, you can simply replace the battery for a full one. Tesla has an automated battery swap station that can replace one in 90 seconds.
- stevep98 10y ago
  Those battery swap stations were mixed (... For now?) http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a25872/elon-musk-tesla-battery-swap/ http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a25...
  - cletus 10y ago
    I think you mean "nixed". Whatever the case, I tend to agree that battery swaps is not a scalable solution.
    - icebraining 10y ago

toddmorey 10y ago

Edward Niedermeyer (the author of this particular opinion pieces) hates Telsa, loves Toyota. Pretty clear if you have followed any of his articles.

api 10y ago

Same thing with reusable rockets. First it won't work, now it won't be economical. These are moribund industries where nothing has changed since the 60s. After a while they've come to believe that nothing can change. Lithium is more common in Earth's crust than lead and many other materials that are mined in significantly greater quantities.

apalmer 10y ago
the automotive industry has not changed since the 60s? Your just making completely factually inaccurate statements.

TYPE_FASTER 10y ago

And SpaceX will never be able to launch and re-use a rocket. And residential solar will never be mainstream. I get the point of the original article, production manufacturing at this scale is a whole different animal from making products at lesser volumes for early adopters. But there's another way to look at it. It's another challenge. And so far, Tesla has been up to the challenge. And so has SpaceX.