21 ms·
One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds
- smeyer 10y agoI wonder what the percentage is in other areas around the country. It would be nice to know to have a better sense of how much is a reasonable baseline and how much is Bay Area specific.
- joe_the_user 10y agoAlso, The high cost of housing here is often presented as Bay Area specific phenomena whereas it's phenomena that's appeared many urban areas, especially the most desirable ones that Bay Area residents might consider moving to.
- potatolicious 10y agoIncreasing urban unaffordability is a theme throughout the US, yes, but let's not pretend that the Bay Area has experienced this to a degree not seen anywhere else - even in New York. While unaffordability and its many causes needs to be addressed everywhere, SF does seem like the odd one out of the bunch.
- joe_the_user 10y agoWell, the increase in cost of housing has been very patchy - each instance it is very mediated by local conditions but still not simply a local phenomena. As a Bay Area resident, I'm eager to escape to places like the Bay but with a lower cost of living and scanning craigslist for such places, I have consistently found the differences less than I'd imagine. A variety of things seem to have come together. On the demand side, the job market today seems to favor certain of the young and the educated. The social consensus has become that no one, especially not the young and educated, wants to live in America's vast expanse of suburban developments - and investors are equally shy about investing her. But also on the supply side, investment in any and all stores of value has gone up all along with the process of the Fed printing money aggressively with investment rental property going with that; the Blackstone group is now one of the nations' largest landlords. And of course a array of Home-value protectors in the form of Nimbyists, prevents construction and a lack of land central cities naturally restricts supply as well. But still, I think it's reasonably to say you have a national phenomena which simply manifests locally in different ways.
- mwksl 10y agoIt's also particularly interesting to compare this growth now with city desirability immediately post-recession: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2009/01/29/for-nearly-half-of-america-grass-is-greener-somewhere-else-denver-tops-list-of-favorite-cities/ http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2009/01/29/for-nearly-half-of... . I can't say with any certainty that the desirability has gone up or down for people living outside the Bay Area, but this may be another "cycle" that San Francisco goes through.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- nether 10y agoI remember on the defunct 43 Things (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43_Things https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43_Things), you could sort by geographical area. For NYC and LA, top 5 had "Get the hell out of [city]."
- trhway 10y agoHope too, in 20 years, retire to Latin America :) Until that, I have to work, and BA is the only place where a programmer can work.
- markcerqueira 10y ago"BA is the only place where a programmer can work." You forgot the /s
- raverbashing 10y ago> and BA is the only place where a programmer can work. Yes, in exactly none of the big cities in the USA there is programming being done, let alone medium cities. Nothing in NYC, nothing in Chicago, Seattle, Boston, Austin, DFW, Minneapolis, Portland, etc Only on SFBA Sure
- trhway 10y agoHaven't tried myself, yet huge crowds of incoming people can't be that wrong :) In particular i think only CA has non-recognition of non-competes (and moonlighting protection too if i remember right) while the rest of US - doesn't.
- yolesaber 10y agoYeah because the herd mentality has shown to be correct so often. C'mon you know what you are saying is wrong. I worked in SV/SF and now live in NYC and I much prefer the tech scene here. In fact there's a massive shortage of programmers so you could actually make more money in NYC. But you don't even need to live there. You can work remote. Programming is one of the only jobs you can do literally from anywhere.
- trhway 10y ago>Programming is one of the only jobs you can do literally from anywhere you're putting theory ahead of practice. We're talking right now inside of one more thread where programmers discuss how hard it is to live in BA - don't you feel any contradiction between that fact and your statement? You with your theory reminded me about that joke yesterday in Prairie Home Companion : "People of Galveston can look in the eye of reality and dismiss it" :)
- jonstokes 10y agoPlease don't come to Austin. I moved from SF to Austin a little over two years ago, and I want to make it clear that it's terrible. The food is bad, the people are lame, and all the musicians are out of tune. I hear Chicago is where it's at, so please go there. Or New York. Or anywhere else, really. Just don't come to Austin.
- chillaxtian 10y agothe grass is always greener on the other side.
- jonny_eh 10y agoThey were being sarcastic.
- threeio 10y agoBut were they? Really? 100+ temps in the summer... landlocked in Texas.
- vonmoltke 10y agoBut with really cold rivers and natural springs.
- cylinder 10y agoI'm not being facetious, Austin is quite overhyped.
- WalterSear 10y agoI've been told that a lot of the hype comes from the hours of travel through Texas that you have to do to get there. "It's like an oasis of dirty water in the sahara," a former Austinite once told me. I'm sure they were being hyperbolic.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- windlep 10y agoI'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping. I grew up in Cupertino, and when I visit my parents there, I'm rather shocked at how downhill the neighborhood has gone in parts. It's crazy that these old 70's tract homes go for 1.5 million. Even more insane is that they're bought and then left empty to go downhill. Literally broken windows and paint falling off. I never used to see that. Part of the problem with building more housing (outside of SF where transit is decent) is that it means even more people. Lack of effective mass transit means those additional people need to drive everywhere, and there's no space for more roads/freeways. So the roads will just get even more clogged. Cupertino recently had a developer proposal for 4 large high-density housing developments (condos & some apartments), and of course they were to go into areas that already had ridiculous traffic, and there was no way to facilitate even more drivers. Until the South Bay gets serious about mass transit, merely adding more housing is only going to make the traffic pain worse.
- andrewmcwatters 10y agoIt seems to me the real answer is to leave. This town ain't big enough for everybody. Mass transit isn't going to solve this problem.
- windlep 10y agoYup, it can just become 50% empty investment properties, and folks can scrounge for what's left. Some solution is going to be needed to prevent that situation, though maybe with all those empty houses, there'll be less people to make traffic so bad.
- jseliger 10y agoMakes sense. I wrote a piece called "Do millennials have a future in Seattle? Do millennials have a future in any superstar cities?" (http://jakeseliger.com/2015/09/24/do-millennials-have-a-future-in-seattle-do-millennials-have-a-future-in-any-superstar-cities/ http://jakeseliger.com/2015/09/24/do-millennials-have-a-futu...) that focuses on Seattle, but the problems in SF are even worse. We're seeing decades of parochial land use policies turn into affordability crises in SF and similar cities. Which is why so many people are moving to Texas: http://time.com/80005/why-texas-is-our-future http://time.com/80005/why-texas-is-our-future, despite some of Texas's other challenges (like travel and inadequate mass transit).
- oxryly1 10y agoYou can have good mass transit or affordable housing, but not both. This sucks.
- pavel_lishin 10y ago> You can have good mass transit or affordable housing, but not both. Why's that?
- superuser2 10y agoGood mass transit increases demand for housing in its coverage area, increasing prices.
- pavel_lishin 10y agoBut it doesn't have to increase prices to the point of unaffordability, does it?
- superuser2 10y agoEvery piece of real estate that sells/rents is affordable to someone.
- 10y ago
- thrownaway2424 10y agoThe question is will people use this signal to change course (better transit, sane housing density, walkability, etc) or to perpetuate the wrong course (more tract housing in Antioch, wider freeways, etc).
- dmode 10y agoHas this number gone up or down compared to other years ? It is completely conceivable though that people would want to move, given the difficulty in procuring homes.
- jonny_eh 10y agoWhat's the number of people that want to move to the Bay Area though?
- blackhaz 10y agoI'm thinking about moving to either Bay Area or Los Angeles with a family, from Prague. I have a 7 years old kid. I am not sure if that's the right thing. We're doing it for the climate. It's really difficult to find a warm English-speaking country where you won't be culturally isolated from the rest of the world. I can work pretty much from anywhere, however I am not a magnate. Things definitely to be missed: - Prague's ultra-affordability (avg. salary is about $1,000/mo, so if you're selling to global market you can live with luxury) - travel opportunities--I'm in the middle of everything - proximity to relatives - great British school--very liberal, easy international atmosphere, we're lucky - overall "easygoingness" - full decriminalization (no problem in CA) - economically uniform society, although sometimes it's a double-edged sword - no requirement for pretending being a patriot Things I will not miss: - very short summer, always feeling cold, gloomy skies - crappy food, although it's improving fast lately. Am I crazy? Where would you move if you'd want a good weather? I enjoy Berlin immensely, but it's too cold. I'd move to London, but it's cold. I hate being cold.
- marcusgarvey 10y agoPortugal has a lot to recommend it.
- swang 10y agoeveryone wants to be in california because the climate is never brutal on either ends. although it has gotten hotter and hotter in most recent years. but if you are considering living anywhere in california, and want nice warm weather, you should also consider orange county (~30-40 minute drive from LA depending), san diego (~3 hours south of LA) and santa barbara (~2 hours? west of LA, nice but maybe a little more expensive and also prob fewer tech jobs). the sf bay area gets colder than southern california but nothing extreme, it doesn't really snow and rain is infrequent (both a good/bad thing for california).
- 10y ago
- pyrrhotech 10y agoAfter living in the SF Bay Area for 5 years, (1 in a crappy apt in Belmont, 4 in a modest home in Hayward), I have very mixed views of the place. I love the progressive politics, diversity, high concentration of smart and interesting people. I hate the traffic, over-crowded trains and the vast wealth inequality--especially since I feel that a large portion of the wealth has been retained due to tax loop holes and that if it were taxed fairly, we could solve a lot of the referenced infrastructure problems.
- AdrianB1 10y agoDo you also feel that you should decide how wealth should be retained? If people work for something (income) what makes you feel you are entitled to decide what to do with their work's result? I love socialists, they care more about other people's money than their own lives. They fight for equal poverty for all, too, but they never mind their own business.
- myhf 10y agoActually the term "loophole" refers not to a dispute over how wealth should be redistributed, but to a discrepancy between the expected amount and the measured amount.
- uptownfunk 10y agoI already left! In Boston currently, but looking to go back to SoCal soon! (Really wonder why there isn't a bigger startup scene in LA/SD than in the Bay Area, it's such a sweet location..)
- buckbova 10y agoThere's been a good size biotech startup scene in SD for some time.
- uptownfunk 10y agoYes you are correct! Very interesting phenomenon how similar industries will cluster in/around the same location.
- tathastu 10y agoGreat, we'll have 1/3 less traffic and more housing space soon!
- Xcelerate 10y agoIs the Bay Area no longer a good place to start a career? I'm close to finishing up my PhD, and my original plan was to apply to work at the tech companies that I find most interesting. For the most part, these are located in the Bay Area — although some are in New York, Austin, Boston, Seattle, Raleigh, and Atlanta. I figured I would stay there 2-4 years tops though, since my family and girlfriend live in the southeast. I don't mind living in a box-sized apartment for a while, but if there's no longer a career benefit to doing this, then perhaps I should focus my job search efforts on other cities?
- autotune 10y agoAs someone without a degree working in tech, I would argue The Bay Area is the best place to grow a career, maybe rather than start (didn't start out looking in SF for tech jobs. Most places want someone mid-senior level). You having a PhD probably opens the door for a ton of good companies though depending on what your field of study is in, which I assume is CS, and if you can pass the interviews. As long as you don't mind living in a box-sized apartment with other roommates despite having that or a studio in one of the more stab-y parts of town the opportunities for career growth are incredible.
- Xcelerate 10y agoOddly enough, my degree is in chemical engineering, however all of my work is entirely computational (molecular dynamics, high performance computing, machine learning, data analysis). In fact, my research for the last year has been on a large-scale nonconvex optimization problem — hopefully employers read further than my resume title... But yeah, I don't really mind where I live as long as it's not in too dangerous of a location. Once I have children I'll want something more comfortable though.
- cylinder 10y agoNothing wrong with that. The costs only start to bother you as you get older and have been there a while and want to plan your next 10 years. Especially nice if you know you want to settle in the SE eventually (although your prferecnes may change...).
- jshorty 10y agoI may be missing some nuance here, but wouldn't increasing sales tax (as the Silicon Valley Leadership Group is advocating) further disproportionately punish lower-income residents? The article doesn't make clear whether moving towards a "Manhattan-like megalopolis" would be a positive or negative trend, but this would push it further down that road.
- r0fls 10y agoFrom my limited understanding of economics: yes. The reason is that lower income people spend more of their money on necessities, whereas richer people spend more money on luxury goods (things they don't need), and they could hence respond more to an increase in sales tax (that is, spend less as a fraction of their income). To reiterate, the lower income people can't spend less (they're buying necessities), so the increase will cause them to spend a greater total fraction of their wages. So, when compared to an increase in income tax, an increase in sales tax is theoretically far more regressive.
- refriedbeans3 10y agobye felicia. lower rents for all!
- eva1984 10y agoSeattle is good!
- peatmoss 10y agoNo it's not. I'm trudging through mud and oppressive rain right this moment.
- mx2323 10y agolies
- TranquilMarmot 10y agoMore like "my apartment is 90 degrees and it's not even June"
- grillvogel 10y agoseattle is just the SF situation with a few years delay and also wasn't as good as SF to start with.
- tomjacobs 10y ago12,000 people moved to SF in 2014. 4,000 new homes were added. I think we need more homes. https://medium.com/@TomPJacobs/what-housing-crisis-3c0568a5dd44 https://medium.com/@TomPJacobs/what-housing-crisis-3c0568a5d...
- muzz 10y agoThe link seems to advocate/facilitate increasing occupancy, which is indeed one solution. With 12k people and 4k homes, that's a ratio of 3 which is very close to the average occupancy of around 2.5 that most cities have.
- jtuente 10y agoExcept that looking at a single year doesn't tell you much about why even a ratio of 3 isn't good in SF. After a quick google search I came across this set of charts that do a pretty good job of covering the history of population and housing in SF.[0] For the period 2010-2013, population rose 32,500 and housing expanded 7,500 - a sustained ratio of 4.33. The decade prior to that saw a much gentler ratio just a little over 1, but that may have been catching up to the booming growth of the '90s and the dotcom bubble. The thing that really caught my eye though was the tidbit of information in the first chart - nearly half of the existing housing in SF was built prior to 1940. The original report (linked in the article) provides a much more grim outlook for 2010-2015 predicting a total population growth of 60,000 with a housing increase of 12,000 - a ratio of 5.[1] 0 - http://sf.curbed.com/2015/2/4/9995388/sfs-population-is-growing-way-faster-than-its-housing-stock http://sf.curbed.com/2015/2/4/9995388/sfs-population-is-grow... 1 - http://www.paragon-re.com/San_Francisco_Real_Estate_Feb_2015 http://www.paragon-re.com/San_Francisco_Real_Estate_Feb_2015
- mwsherman 10y agoNobody moves there anymore, it’s too crowded.
- muzz 10y agoAlso Nobody buys houses there anymore, because the bidding wars have gotten out of hand. Nobody drives to work there anymore, the commute traffic is just too bad. Nobody wants to work there anymore, there are just too many jobs producing competition for scarce housing and transit.
- ww520 10y agoIt's a cycle. Waves of people come to and leave from the Bay Area over time. The last exodus was the 2008. The one before was the dotcom bust.
- swagv 10y agoI've been waiting for another earthquake since '89 to shake out these softies. Please!
- r00fus 10y agoThe "hope" part discourages me. It means that despite the wishes to leave, the jobs elsewhere (or telecommuting opportunities) may simply not be there.
- Johnny555 10y agoI've been saying that for about 15 years now, yet I'm still here. I've certainly looked around, visited a few places, went on some job interviews out of the area, but haven't been able to find anyplace that I felt I could call "home".
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- DannyBee 10y agoErrr, so now i'm wondering why everyone stopped caring about cost of living in 2015? :) It looks like they may have been super-concerned about water running out instead?
- x2398dh1 10y agoThe results of that poll reminded me of this: http://www.theonion.com/article/report-98-percent-of-us-commuters-favor-public-tra-1434 http://www.theonion.com/article/report-98-percent-of-us-comm... Stated intent is different than actual intent. I think it's interesting to note that employment is going up, while people state that they will leave in a few years. What does a few years mean - 2 years? 5 years? Wouldn't ones actual move correlate more with economic outlook than stated intent to move?
- throwaway6497 10y agoAmong the people who voted, this is the number for Taxable household income for 2016 More than $150,000 16% Prefer not to respond 11% Rest of the % are all under $150,000. Good senior engineer/product people make way more than that. I don't think any of those people are leaving. They are the critical-mass who will make/break good technical companies and power the innovation cycle. SV is in no trouble. There is no real scare of brain-drain.
- throwaway6497 10y agoI admit this comment might be insensitive and will probably ruffle the feathers of many but I was purely thinking from the point of view of economic impact and who drive(s) the innovation engine here. VCs, People who made it in tech, hungry (for success) people who want to make it in tech, and senior product and engineering people who can build solid products (not charlatans or imposters) have no reason to leave SV. They are all doing well money wise except probably hungry ones who are motivated to make a lot of impact or money or both. I am interested to hear what other people have to say about this.
- shimon 10y agoZoom out - you're missing the huge demographic risk. The next generation of people who will become top engineers, founders, etc. are facing tougher tradeoffs between standard of living and access to SV's social and business networks. It's not only the risk that the current drivers will leave but that the new drivers will just go elsewhere.
- muzz 10y agoAll indications are that the new drivers are being attracted to the Bay Area, and more so than they have ever been.
- throwaway6497 10y agoFor 2015/16, new college grads at good companies total comp is in the range $120-180K, and they definitely have access to good social networks within the company and outside. Is there a large group of next generation people I am missing?
- techchick85 10y agoI never thought I would say that LA is cheaper than San Francisco. The average one bedroom apartment is around $3k. I'm not sure how people can afford to live here anymore. I live in Marin and commute to Silicon Valley...
- Nathannn 10y agoAnd 1/3 just got there. The cycle continues.
- Balgair 10y agoDon't look at Denver, it's all stoners from the green wave and Tebow fans now. Maybe Austin?
- kylec 10y agoI moved to the area a few months ago for my career, and while I wouldn't say I hope to leave soon, I don't plan on putting down roots. My hope is to save up some money and buy a cheap house in cash where the cost of real estate and living is cheap, then move there. I suspect that there are a lot of other people that are looking to do the same.
- ixtli 10y agoPlease don't come to New York. I moved from Amherst to New York a little over four years ago, and I want to make it clear that it's terrible. The food is bad, the people are lame, and all the musicians are out of tune. I hear Chicago is where it's at, so please go there. Or Seattle. Or anywhere else, really. Just don't come to New York.
- dev1n 10y agoCome check out troy, new york. Growing startup scene and lots of awesome shops and cafe's.
- fluxquanta 10y agoIs there really a lot to offer there? I currently live farther upstate (north of the Adirondacks) and have been considering moving down to the capital region.
- dev1n 10y agoyeah its a really fun time. Along with all of the shops, microbreweries and bars that opened up within the last four years, there is a makerspace called the center of gravity which opened fairly recently [1]. It's got 3D printers and all that jazz. The city has done a nice job reinventing itself. [1]: http://www.tvcog.net http://www.tvcog.net
- kethinov 10y agoI visited recently and enjoyed it. I live west of you a few hours. Somewhat recently came back home to upstate NY after getting tired of the cost of living in Silicon Valley.
- bkjelden 10y agoI'm one of those in the 1/3rd, currently in the process of moving to the Denver/Boulder area. I knew on paper the housing would be cheaper, but what's stood out to me is how much less crowded it is: You can go to stores and find parking, and not wait 15 minutes at the cashier. You can go to restaurants and actually get a table. You can make unprotected left turns. Things are busy during rush hour, but outside of that it's really not bad, and overall it doesn't perpetually feel like the infrastructure is about to collapse under the weight of being so far over-capacity. There are some things I will miss, but I keep reminding myself that I can fly back to SF cheaply (or anywhere in the US from DEN, really) and hit all of my favorite spots. I am a little afraid I won't be able to find the same quality fruits and vegetables. When I moved out to the bay area, I thought it would be great to have so many job opportunities and career flexibility. But now as I'm leaving I feel like that wasn't all it's built up to be. Having some options if your employment situation goes south is important, but I don't really need to change jobs every 18 months, or have 5 cold calls from recruiters in my inbox every week. I'd truly rather find a company where I am a good fit and just stay put for a few years. I also think that is in some ways healthier too: having a bit higher switching cost forces you to learn how to work out some disagreements with your employer and boss, instead of just leaving at the drop of a hat.
- mdorazio 10y agoAre you sure about these things? I feel like this sentiment reflects the Denver/Boulder area 2-3 years ago, but the recent influx of so many people with the exact same thought process as you has significantly dampened the lower population density appeal. For example, I was in Denver in November and there were lines out the door for pretty much every trendy restaurant and dessert place downtown, and traffic was decidedly not pleasant.
- bkjelden 10y agoYes. It may be worse than it was a few years ago, but it still feels like a night and day different compared to the bay area.
- khushia 10y ago
- pessimizer 10y agoI'm pretty sure that the tech kids didn't plan to stay there for more than a few years anyway. They're making big salaries, but the rent is so high that they can't save any money. What they can do is drag that fancy resume back to the Indiana suburb they came from, and buy a nice house with a 20 minute commute to the industrial park that they work in. Or a nice condo in downtown Boise, a five-minute bike ride from their CTO job at some newspaper, or the gas company. Not necessarily a bad outcome...
- intrasight 10y agoMy advice: find a nice town with really good Internet and lots of people you think you would enjoy being around. Programmers can work from anywhere. Take advantage of that fact (if you are a programmer).
- more_corn 10y agoWhat is the telos of man? (ultimate goal, end) The best thing for you is impossible, and that's for you to have never been (here) The next best thing is to die soon (or leave) The wisdom of Silenus applies to life in the San Francisco
- stewartUK 10y agoAnyone wondering where to move? https://teleport.org/cities https://teleport.org/cities Compare life quality data, costs of living, salaries...
- andy-x 10y agoWhy would current owners have to pay more and more in taxes just because Chinese fucks decided to invest their laundered money in real estate here?
- dang 10y agoYou can't slur an entire population of people like that on HN. We ban accounts that do this, so please don't do it again. We detached this comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11614582 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11614582 and marked it off-topic.