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One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

tdicola 11y ago
> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of trade in from a previous car you can easily be driving a $35k car for just a few hundred bucks a month.
- dionidium 11y ago
  The median household income is around $50k/yr in the U.S. That's household income. To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. I'm having trouble finding a median car sale price -- there are a bunch of articles about the average cost of new cars -- but I doubt most families actually are spending that much on transportation. Once you cut out used cars, those without cars, and those spending significantly less for their Kia or Hyundai or whatever, I think you'll find that very few people spend $40k on a car. That's a luxury purchase.
  - prawn 11y ago
    To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. You have probably already realised this if you've lived on the planet for more than 20ish years, but the majority of people certainly seem to be quite insane.
    - dionidium 11y ago
      Well sure :) It likely doesn't help that I'm a cheapskate. As a programmer, I'm probably pretty close to the demo that should want a Model 3, but I drive a 2007 Hyundai hatchback with a manual transmission. So I think everybody's crazy.
      - techdmn 11y ago
        I'm in a similar boat, I paid cash for a 2003 Mazda hatch with a manual. When I bought it I did the math, and figured that compared to the lease payment and insurance on a new Mazda I would break even in 10 months. I've been driving it for over two years. :-) Why would I want a new car? Then I'd just have to worry about scratching the paint, or even (heaven forbid) drive it nicely. Ug. However, I will say that a Model 3 is the one new car I might consider.
- BinaryIdiot 11y ago
  > I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic I think you're a bit out of touch. "Few" options? You can get a very, very high end Honda Civic at $30k+, in my opinion. Considering you can get a base Civic for around $16k-$18k, adding on a "few" options isn't going to almost double the price. You have to add quite a few options to get near that $30k number. Or pick a higher end Civic to start with. > For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. First those are big vehicles so yes, obviously they're going to cost more. But $40k to $50k is with many options as well. You can get a base Odyssey between $28k to $30k depending on where you shop. Not everyone adds $10k to $20k in option.s In fact I would be shocked if any majority of customer adds on so many options.
- viraptor 11y ago
  You're still talking about new cars, rather than what people actually buy. http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/for-sale/?src=1459754047934 http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/for-sale/?src=14597540479... says you can go well under 20k for a Honda Civic if you don't want a new one.
  - varjag 11y ago
    There are no used Tesla 3 cars on the market to compare that against yet.
  - mikeash 11y ago
    There is no point in bringing up the price of used cars when talking about the price of a new car and how that positions it in the market. Somebody had to purchase that Civic when it was new, after all.
    - viraptor 11y ago
      I don't see why not. There are two prices. The new car is a luxury and almost only thing about "new" is a status symbol. The moment you hand over the money and drive out, it lost a lot of its value - if you want to sell it now, you're going to get the real value back. And that's what the second price is - the real value of the car. The parent comment was talking specifically about what people pay and not about the price tag at the new car dealer.
      - mikeash 11y ago
        The new and used car markets are nearly separate. Few people set out to purchase a car open to both possibilities. If they were comparable then the prices would be more similar. Look at houses for an example of that. New and used houses tend to share the same market, and also tend to have similar prices. If you're looking at a new car and trying to see how it might sell, you want to compare it to other new cars.
- kelseyfrancis 11y ago
  Yes, it seems pretty common to spend $35k on a vehicle, and of course people buying $35k sedans are in the Model 3 market, but I don't think that includes even new small economy car buyers. It would be difficult to spend $30k on a new standard-engine Mazda 3. Mine was $18k brand new. The top standard-engine trim is around $25k. That other $10-17k is another $165-285/month over 5 years at 0% interest, and that is not an insignificant amount of money to many/most people. If you can't save that much monthly in gas, and all you want is a boring, basic, reliable car, it's not worth it (yet). Tax incentives help, but Tesla is going to hit the 200,000 vehicle limit well before filling even all the Model 3 pre-orders.
  - illumin8 11y ago
    You're comparing a Mazda 3, which is an economy car, against an entry-level luxury sedan. This is a bad comparison. Mazda doesn't even have a car in this segment. You should be comparing it against a BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Acura TL, Mercedes C-series, Lexus GS. All of those vehicles start in the 30s, and you would be lucky to get out the door with reasonable options under $50K. You could probably get the BMW up to almost $100K when you start considering the M package and various sports options.
    - kelseyfrancis 11y ago
      > You're comparing a Mazda 3, which is an economy car, against an entry-level luxury sedan. This is a bad comparison. Indeed, that was my point. The claim that "'economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options" is trying to assert that people buying those kinds of cars are in the Model 3 market. But they really aren't. People buying small luxury sedans like the ones you've mentioned probably are, though.
- alkonaut 11y ago
  At least where I live, most new cars are company leases, and bought by family at the age 1-3 years old. Private leasing and individuals buying new cars is rare. This means the difference between what the median new-ish car price is when sold to an individual, vs. what the median price is for a new car sold to an individual is massive.
- grahamburger 11y ago
  Normal people don't buy new cars.
  - Shengbo 11y ago
    I agree, I wouldn't ever consider buying new unless it was a company lease.
- lttlrck 11y ago
  In highly doubt the Midel 3 is going to be immune from price increases as options are added. Currently we have absolutely no idea what the equation will be so the comparison with cars that start in the low 20s is inappropriate.
- dragontamer 11y ago
  Your numbers are ridiculous. Honda Civic LX is 18,640, while the high-end "Touring" trim is $26,500. http://automobiles.honda.com/tools/build-price/trims.aspx?ModelName=Civic%20Sedan&ModelYear=2016 http://automobiles.honda.com/tools/build-price/trims.aspx?Mo... Mazda 3 is $17,845 to $25,795. And these are at MSRP, and lulz to anyone who can't manage to get a car below MSRP. Pushing up against $30k? Are you kidding me? Maybe a "racing" model, like Ford Focus ST or Subaru WRX (a small, but very powerful engine, costs premium) will get you to $30k. But you can deck-out these starter vehicles and keep costs around $20k easily. And as others have said: normal people don't buy new cars.
agf 11y ago
The average new car price in March 2016 was $33,666. There are plenty of "mass-produced" cars in this price range. http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-percent-march-2016 http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-per...
- dionidium 11y ago
  That may be the average cost of a new car, which does not in any way contradict my claim that the median family spends nowhere near that on a car.
  - agf 11y ago
    I'm aware of that. My point was it's in a range in which a very large number of cars are sold; claiming this price range means it's not going to be "mass-produced" is stretching it.
    - dionidium 11y ago
      Since you've left this comment a couple times I'll just point out that that wasn't at all my point.
      - deleted 11y ago
        [deleted]
      - maratd 11y ago
        I think rather than going back and forth, perhaps someone should explain the difference between average and median?
        sickpig 11y ago
        average is skewed towards distribution outliers, the more asymmetric the distribution the more pronounced will be such effect. On the other hand median just gives you the value that split the distribution in two exact parts. Price/Income distributions are the perfect match if you want to see avg bias taken to its extreme. e.g. median of [2,2,2,2,2,2,2,100] = 2 average of [2,2,2,2,2,2,2,100] = 14.25
Malician 11y ago
I know several (not dumb, either) people who overestimate gas and maintenance savings, ignore the time value of money when calculating the value of both, and simply don't account for all the risks that will come with the first just-released model of a totally new automobile. I don't think any of them will actually end up pulling the trigger (fortunately) but a lot of people who shouldn't, will. I expect it to be a great car but I see people looking at it who really aren't in a position to do so. Repairing this thing out of warranty will be even more of a joke than with regular new cars (and that's already an economic tragedy.)
- illumin8 11y ago
  How is repairing any new car an economic tragedy? I bought a Hyundai in 2008. Since then, I've only had to pay annual maintenance costs averaging $200, and the powertrain has a 10 year 100,000 mile warranty (I'm only at 75,000 miles so far after 7.5 years). The only significant repairs I can imagine on this vehicle are replacing the tires or brakes. As long as the oil changes and maintenance are done regularly, I highly doubt the engine will have any problems until 200,000 miles or so, at which point the vehicle will be almost 20 years old and have cost about $1,000 a year to drive. New vehicles are incredibly reliable (compared to vehicles produced in the 20th century) and are likely to last a long time, although the electronics will surely be dated when they are 20 years old. The tesla vehicles have an 8 year warranty on the battery pack, which is the only item besides tires, brakes, and windshield wiper blades that is likely to wear out.
  - base698 11y ago
    > The tesla vehicles have an 8 year warranty on the battery pack, which is the only item besides tires, brakes, and windshield wiper blades that is likely to wear out. This is Tesla marketing through and through. Look at all the problems the Model S owners have had and reconsider the statement.
- TheCondor 11y ago
  Making a "great car" is no easy task. At that price point, they are going up against some all time greats: Camry, Accord, Sonata, others. That means 200,000 miles with only standard maintenance and relatively low performance degradation. All weather, all conditions, being a daily driver. Also, most of those cars are babied for a while, then the honeymoon wears off and a lot of them are almost abused after that. Aggressive 16 year old boys learning to drive in them... Being parked outside all the time... Shit is about to get real for tesla, I really hope they deliver a great car, it's just a monumentally difficult challenge. There will be a lot of bumps along the way.
rvanmil 11y ago
This car will probably be very popular as a leased company car (at least in The Netherlands). The price is in range for most employees who can lease a car and the tax advantages are huge.
seanmcdirmid 11y ago
Beijing has a plate lottery of 150k vehicles this year, 60k of them are dedicated to EVs. Suffice it to say, I've been seeing a lot of new Teslas (the higher end ones) on the road this year in a place that still barely supports the charging infrastructure. I think the Tesla 3 is going to do very nicely in that market given its artificial constraints.
- fab13n 11y ago
  > given its artificial constraints. Given the lethality of air pollution in Beijing, I'm not sure it's fair to call "artificial" those emission-limiting constraints. Otherwise, you'll also have to call "artificial" the constraint that one can't shoot/knife/strangle people who go out of their ways to be pains in asses, however genuine and natural the urge might seem :-) Other than that, yes, China is likely to be a very good market for Tesla, at least until local knock-off become available. I'd actually be surprised if Tesla's worldwide production matched China's demand.
  - seanmcdirmid 11y ago
    It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect. BYD already produces electric cars that are even subsidized in many cities. However, the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them, and they wouldn't be caught dead in a Chinese-brand car (and the way the BYD electric taxis have been rumored to just explode, they think being caught dead in them is a possibility). If Chinese demand is sufficient, I'm sure tesla would just open up a factory or two in China to supply it. They might even take on a Chinese partner in a JV given that they are so willing to share patents with competitors anyways (with the bonus that the partner would provide much of the RMB capital to startup, it's the one thing China has a lot of).
    - 11y ago
nomercy400 11y ago
These EV cars are not subsidized? I expect some discounts on these petrol-less cars.
- ksherlock 11y ago
  The federal tax credit phases out after the manufacturer has sold 200,000 qualifying vehicles.
Shivetya 11y ago
I would think the median price for vehicles tends to list high as trucks which account for a large number of sales regularly have stickers in that range. Throw in the atypical family CUV/Van can place in the low thirties as well. Cars the size of the 3 place in the teens to mid twenties though there are examples outside those ranges. The issues EVs have always faced is that many families if not individuals cannot afford a car with any limitations. By that I mean, both cars have to be able to wholly do the duty of each which usually involves going anywhere at any time. Two hundred mile EVs might change that but only to a point. It will take a proliferation of charging stations and change in public use of them. Between the Tesla 3 and Chevrolet Bolt the real change here is that the consumer EV market, the "median price market" has finally matured. All previous generation EVs which include the Leaf, i3, Focus, and eGolf, are as near to being obsolete as they can be. Sure they use still but their range limitation is even more exaggerated, especially at the price points being set by GM and Tesla
- Shengbo 11y ago
  >I would think the median price for vehicles tends to list high as trucks which account for a large number of sales regularly have stickers in that range. That may be true for the US market but Tesla is selling globally now. Trucks don't sell very well in Europe for example.
deepGem 11y ago
True. A real affordable EV will be in the price range of a Civic. Given that, I can't imagine the headroom for Tesla to grow. It's hard to quantify Tesla's growth beyond Model 3, like a PE multiple that can justify Tesla's value.
nunez 11y ago
If I had to wager a guess, that's right around the average MSRP for most leased vehicles on the road, and I believe Tesla has a leasing program.

tdicola 11y ago

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of trade in from a previous car you can easily be driving a $35k car for just a few hundred bucks a month.

dionidium 11y ago
The median household income is around $50k/yr in the U.S. That's household income. To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. I'm having trouble finding a median car sale price -- there are a bunch of articles about the average cost of new cars -- but I doubt most families actually are spending that much on transportation. Once you cut out used cars, those without cars, and those spending significantly less for their Kia or Hyundai or whatever, I think you'll find that very few people spend $40k on a car. That's a luxury purchase.
- prawn 11y ago
  To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. You have probably already realised this if you've lived on the planet for more than 20ish years, but the majority of people certainly seem to be quite insane.
  - dionidium 11y ago
    Well sure :) It likely doesn't help that I'm a cheapskate. As a programmer, I'm probably pretty close to the demo that should want a Model 3, but I drive a 2007 Hyundai hatchback with a manual transmission. So I think everybody's crazy.
    - techdmn 11y ago
      I'm in a similar boat, I paid cash for a 2003 Mazda hatch with a manual. When I bought it I did the math, and figured that compared to the lease payment and insurance on a new Mazda I would break even in 10 months. I've been driving it for over two years. :-) Why would I want a new car? Then I'd just have to worry about scratching the paint, or even (heaven forbid) drive it nicely. Ug. However, I will say that a Model 3 is the one new car I might consider.
BinaryIdiot 11y ago
> I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic I think you're a bit out of touch. "Few" options? You can get a very, very high end Honda Civic at $30k+, in my opinion. Considering you can get a base Civic for around $16k-$18k, adding on a "few" options isn't going to almost double the price. You have to add quite a few options to get near that $30k number. Or pick a higher end Civic to start with. > For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. First those are big vehicles so yes, obviously they're going to cost more. But $40k to $50k is with many options as well. You can get a base Odyssey between $28k to $30k depending on where you shop. Not everyone adds $10k to $20k in option.s In fact I would be shocked if any majority of customer adds on so many options.
viraptor 11y ago
You're still talking about new cars, rather than what people actually buy. http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/for-sale/?src=1459754047934 http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/for-sale/?src=14597540479... says you can go well under 20k for a Honda Civic if you don't want a new one.
- varjag 11y ago
  There are no used Tesla 3 cars on the market to compare that against yet.
- mikeash 11y ago
  There is no point in bringing up the price of used cars when talking about the price of a new car and how that positions it in the market. Somebody had to purchase that Civic when it was new, after all.
  - viraptor 11y ago
    I don't see why not. There are two prices. The new car is a luxury and almost only thing about "new" is a status symbol. The moment you hand over the money and drive out, it lost a lot of its value - if you want to sell it now, you're going to get the real value back. And that's what the second price is - the real value of the car. The parent comment was talking specifically about what people pay and not about the price tag at the new car dealer.
    - mikeash 11y ago
      The new and used car markets are nearly separate. Few people set out to purchase a car open to both possibilities. If they were comparable then the prices would be more similar. Look at houses for an example of that. New and used houses tend to share the same market, and also tend to have similar prices. If you're looking at a new car and trying to see how it might sell, you want to compare it to other new cars.
kelseyfrancis 11y ago
Yes, it seems pretty common to spend $35k on a vehicle, and of course people buying $35k sedans are in the Model 3 market, but I don't think that includes even new small economy car buyers. It would be difficult to spend $30k on a new standard-engine Mazda 3. Mine was $18k brand new. The top standard-engine trim is around $25k. That other $10-17k is another $165-285/month over 5 years at 0% interest, and that is not an insignificant amount of money to many/most people. If you can't save that much monthly in gas, and all you want is a boring, basic, reliable car, it's not worth it (yet). Tax incentives help, but Tesla is going to hit the 200,000 vehicle limit well before filling even all the Model 3 pre-orders.
- illumin8 11y ago
  You're comparing a Mazda 3, which is an economy car, against an entry-level luxury sedan. This is a bad comparison. Mazda doesn't even have a car in this segment. You should be comparing it against a BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Acura TL, Mercedes C-series, Lexus GS. All of those vehicles start in the 30s, and you would be lucky to get out the door with reasonable options under $50K. You could probably get the BMW up to almost $100K when you start considering the M package and various sports options.
  - kelseyfrancis 11y ago
    > You're comparing a Mazda 3, which is an economy car, against an entry-level luxury sedan. This is a bad comparison. Indeed, that was my point. The claim that "'economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options" is trying to assert that people buying those kinds of cars are in the Model 3 market. But they really aren't. People buying small luxury sedans like the ones you've mentioned probably are, though.
alkonaut 11y ago
At least where I live, most new cars are company leases, and bought by family at the age 1-3 years old. Private leasing and individuals buying new cars is rare. This means the difference between what the median new-ish car price is when sold to an individual, vs. what the median price is for a new car sold to an individual is massive.
grahamburger 11y ago
Normal people don't buy new cars.
- Shengbo 11y ago
  I agree, I wouldn't ever consider buying new unless it was a company lease.
lttlrck 11y ago
In highly doubt the Midel 3 is going to be immune from price increases as options are added. Currently we have absolutely no idea what the equation will be so the comparison with cars that start in the low 20s is inappropriate.
dragontamer 11y ago
Your numbers are ridiculous. Honda Civic LX is 18,640, while the high-end "Touring" trim is $26,500. http://automobiles.honda.com/tools/build-price/trims.aspx?ModelName=Civic%20Sedan&ModelYear=2016 http://automobiles.honda.com/tools/build-price/trims.aspx?Mo... Mazda 3 is $17,845 to $25,795. And these are at MSRP, and lulz to anyone who can't manage to get a car below MSRP. Pushing up against $30k? Are you kidding me? Maybe a "racing" model, like Ford Focus ST or Subaru WRX (a small, but very powerful engine, costs premium) will get you to $30k. But you can deck-out these starter vehicles and keep costs around $20k easily. And as others have said: normal people don't buy new cars.

agf 11y ago

The average new car price in March 2016 was $33,666. There are plenty of "mass-produced" cars in this price range. http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-percent-march-2016 http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-per...

dionidium 11y ago
That may be the average cost of a new car, which does not in any way contradict my claim that the median family spends nowhere near that on a car.
- agf 11y ago
  I'm aware of that. My point was it's in a range in which a very large number of cars are sold; claiming this price range means it's not going to be "mass-produced" is stretching it.
  - dionidium 11y ago
    Since you've left this comment a couple times I'll just point out that that wasn't at all my point.
    - deleted 11y ago
      [deleted]
    - maratd 11y ago
      I think rather than going back and forth, perhaps someone should explain the difference between average and median?
      - sickpig 11y ago
        average is skewed towards distribution outliers, the more asymmetric the distribution the more pronounced will be such effect. On the other hand median just gives you the value that split the distribution in two exact parts. Price/Income distributions are the perfect match if you want to see avg bias taken to its extreme. e.g. median of [2,2,2,2,2,2,2,100] = 2 average of [2,2,2,2,2,2,2,100] = 14.25

Malician 11y ago

I know several (not dumb, either) people who overestimate gas and maintenance savings, ignore the time value of money when calculating the value of both, and simply don't account for all the risks that will come with the first just-released model of a totally new automobile. I don't think any of them will actually end up pulling the trigger (fortunately) but a lot of people who shouldn't, will. I expect it to be a great car but I see people looking at it who really aren't in a position to do so. Repairing this thing out of warranty will be even more of a joke than with regular new cars (and that's already an economic tragedy.)

illumin8 11y ago
How is repairing any new car an economic tragedy? I bought a Hyundai in 2008. Since then, I've only had to pay annual maintenance costs averaging $200, and the powertrain has a 10 year 100,000 mile warranty (I'm only at 75,000 miles so far after 7.5 years). The only significant repairs I can imagine on this vehicle are replacing the tires or brakes. As long as the oil changes and maintenance are done regularly, I highly doubt the engine will have any problems until 200,000 miles or so, at which point the vehicle will be almost 20 years old and have cost about $1,000 a year to drive. New vehicles are incredibly reliable (compared to vehicles produced in the 20th century) and are likely to last a long time, although the electronics will surely be dated when they are 20 years old. The tesla vehicles have an 8 year warranty on the battery pack, which is the only item besides tires, brakes, and windshield wiper blades that is likely to wear out.
- base698 11y ago
  > The tesla vehicles have an 8 year warranty on the battery pack, which is the only item besides tires, brakes, and windshield wiper blades that is likely to wear out. This is Tesla marketing through and through. Look at all the problems the Model S owners have had and reconsider the statement.
TheCondor 11y ago
Making a "great car" is no easy task. At that price point, they are going up against some all time greats: Camry, Accord, Sonata, others. That means 200,000 miles with only standard maintenance and relatively low performance degradation. All weather, all conditions, being a daily driver. Also, most of those cars are babied for a while, then the honeymoon wears off and a lot of them are almost abused after that. Aggressive 16 year old boys learning to drive in them... Being parked outside all the time... Shit is about to get real for tesla, I really hope they deliver a great car, it's just a monumentally difficult challenge. There will be a lot of bumps along the way.

rvanmil 11y ago

This car will probably be very popular as a leased company car (at least in The Netherlands). The price is in range for most employees who can lease a car and the tax advantages are huge.

seanmcdirmid 11y ago

Beijing has a plate lottery of 150k vehicles this year, 60k of them are dedicated to EVs. Suffice it to say, I've been seeing a lot of new Teslas (the higher end ones) on the road this year in a place that still barely supports the charging infrastructure. I think the Tesla 3 is going to do very nicely in that market given its artificial constraints.

fab13n 11y ago
> given its artificial constraints. Given the lethality of air pollution in Beijing, I'm not sure it's fair to call "artificial" those emission-limiting constraints. Otherwise, you'll also have to call "artificial" the constraint that one can't shoot/knife/strangle people who go out of their ways to be pains in asses, however genuine and natural the urge might seem :-) Other than that, yes, China is likely to be a very good market for Tesla, at least until local knock-off become available. I'd actually be surprised if Tesla's worldwide production matched China's demand.
- seanmcdirmid 11y ago
  It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect. BYD already produces electric cars that are even subsidized in many cities. However, the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them, and they wouldn't be caught dead in a Chinese-brand car (and the way the BYD electric taxis have been rumored to just explode, they think being caught dead in them is a possibility). If Chinese demand is sufficient, I'm sure tesla would just open up a factory or two in China to supply it. They might even take on a Chinese partner in a JV given that they are so willing to share patents with competitors anyways (with the bonus that the partner would provide much of the RMB capital to startup, it's the one thing China has a lot of).
  - 11y ago

nomercy400 11y ago

These EV cars are not subsidized? I expect some discounts on these petrol-less cars.

ksherlock 11y ago
The federal tax credit phases out after the manufacturer has sold 200,000 qualifying vehicles.

Shivetya 11y ago

I would think the median price for vehicles tends to list high as trucks which account for a large number of sales regularly have stickers in that range. Throw in the atypical family CUV/Van can place in the low thirties as well. Cars the size of the 3 place in the teens to mid twenties though there are examples outside those ranges. The issues EVs have always faced is that many families if not individuals cannot afford a car with any limitations. By that I mean, both cars have to be able to wholly do the duty of each which usually involves going anywhere at any time. Two hundred mile EVs might change that but only to a point. It will take a proliferation of charging stations and change in public use of them. Between the Tesla 3 and Chevrolet Bolt the real change here is that the consumer EV market, the "median price market" has finally matured. All previous generation EVs which include the Leaf, i3, Focus, and eGolf, are as near to being obsolete as they can be. Sure they use still but their range limitation is even more exaggerated, especially at the price points being set by GM and Tesla

Shengbo 11y ago
>I would think the median price for vehicles tends to list high as trucks which account for a large number of sales regularly have stickers in that range. That may be true for the US market but Tesla is selling globally now. Trucks don't sell very well in Europe for example.

deepGem 11y ago

True. A real affordable EV will be in the price range of a Civic. Given that, I can't imagine the headroom for Tesla to grow. It's hard to quantify Tesla's growth beyond Model 3, like a PE multiple that can justify Tesla's value.

nunez 11y ago

If I had to wager a guess, that's right around the average MSRP for most leased vehicles on the road, and I believe Tesla has a leasing program.