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I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.th

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-model-3-could-destroy-elon-musk-s-company.html http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, it would be Elon Musk and team.

gchokov 11y ago
The hype is too much indeed. It's actually concerning - I believe that a lot of people will get their $1000 back, once the first negative review hits, and this is going to backlash. And we are definitely going to see such reviews, because the negative and "something-gate" news sell well. Disclaimer: I am a fan of Elon. p.s. Why am I being downvoted without a response?
- Artistry121 11y ago
  History will tell. Calculated bets move us forward.
  - gchokov 11y ago
    Yes, I agree. The bet is high and I hope it will produce nice outcome for everybody in the long term!
- base698 11y ago
  Probably because Tesla has had tons of bad news already: the Model S has had many recalls and reliability issues and the X still hasn't hit its stride in terms of units shipped despite the large backlog. Yet the stock still goes up in periods of obvious trouble.
dionidium 11y ago
One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.
- tdicola 11y ago
  > Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of trade in from a previous car you can easily be driving a $35k car for just a few hundred bucks a month.
  - dionidium 11y ago
    The median household income is around $50k/yr in the U.S. That's household income. To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. I'm having trouble finding a median car sale price -- there are a bunch of articles about the average cost of new cars -- but I doubt most families actually are spending that much on transportation. Once you cut out used cars, those without cars, and those spending significantly less for their Kia or Hyundai or whatever, I think you'll find that very few people spend $40k on a car. That's a luxury purchase.
    - prawn 11y ago
      To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. You have probably already realised this if you've lived on the planet for more than 20ish years, but the majority of people certainly seem to be quite insane.
      - dionidium 11y ago
agumonkey 11y ago
Interesting article. The media glow is indeed strong.
trymas 11y ago
TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil. IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing. They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (or the power they produce) than the rest factories in the world. But battery technology must have a breakthrough and probably sooner than most of us think. Currently known lithium reserves will 'support global demand until 2100' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves). Also, very efficient battery recycling and reuse must be further developed. I hope that in 100 years, we'll discover and develop battery technology which is affordable, ecological (will not deplete Earth's recourses completely), efficient (e.g. power to weight ratio), etc. I know that there is development going for this, but I think it will be a long time until new battery tech will be in our home.
- vrfcodf 11y ago
  I agree with you, although it is incorrect to assume that batteries will be always lithium based.
  - trymas 11y ago
    I know that, though what I meant is that battery manufacturing can be limiting factor for EVs if they are dependent on limited resources.
    - vrfcodf 11y ago
      Limiting resources are a limiting factor, kinda a tautology.
- mikeash 11y ago
  Lithium in batteries doesn't get used up. It just sits there doing its thing, and when the battery wears out, you can recover the lithium and use it in a new battery. It's not currently economical to do so in most cases, but that's largely a function of it just being cheaper to extract it from the ground. It's not comparable to oil, which is inherently destroyed when used to propel vehicles.

gchokov 11y ago

The hype is too much indeed. It's actually concerning - I believe that a lot of people will get their $1000 back, once the first negative review hits, and this is going to backlash. And we are definitely going to see such reviews, because the negative and "something-gate" news sell well. Disclaimer: I am a fan of Elon. p.s. Why am I being downvoted without a response?

Artistry121 11y ago
History will tell. Calculated bets move us forward.
- gchokov 11y ago
  Yes, I agree. The bet is high and I hope it will produce nice outcome for everybody in the long term!
base698 11y ago
Probably because Tesla has had tons of bad news already: the Model S has had many recalls and reliability issues and the X still hasn't hit its stride in terms of units shipped despite the large backlog. Yet the stock still goes up in periods of obvious trouble.

dionidium 11y ago

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

tdicola 11y ago
> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of trade in from a previous car you can easily be driving a $35k car for just a few hundred bucks a month.
- dionidium 11y ago
  The median household income is around $50k/yr in the U.S. That's household income. To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. I'm having trouble finding a median car sale price -- there are a bunch of articles about the average cost of new cars -- but I doubt most families actually are spending that much on transportation. Once you cut out used cars, those without cars, and those spending significantly less for their Kia or Hyundai or whatever, I think you'll find that very few people spend $40k on a car. That's a luxury purchase.
  - prawn 11y ago
    To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. You have probably already realised this if you've lived on the planet for more than 20ish years, but the majority of people certainly seem to be quite insane.
    - dionidium 11y ago

agumonkey 11y ago

Interesting article. The media glow is indeed strong.

trymas 11y ago

TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil. IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing. They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (or the power they produce) than the rest factories in the world. But battery technology must have a breakthrough and probably sooner than most of us think. Currently known lithium reserves will 'support global demand until 2100' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves). Also, very efficient battery recycling and reuse must be further developed. I hope that in 100 years, we'll discover and develop battery technology which is affordable, ecological (will not deplete Earth's recourses completely), efficient (e.g. power to weight ratio), etc. I know that there is development going for this, but I think it will be a long time until new battery tech will be in our home.

vrfcodf 11y ago
I agree with you, although it is incorrect to assume that batteries will be always lithium based.
- trymas 11y ago
  I know that, though what I meant is that battery manufacturing can be limiting factor for EVs if they are dependent on limited resources.
  - vrfcodf 11y ago
    Limiting resources are a limiting factor, kinda a tautology.
mikeash 11y ago
Lithium in batteries doesn't get used up. It just sits there doing its thing, and when the battery wears out, you can recover the lithium and use it in a new battery. It's not currently economical to do so in most cases, but that's largely a function of it just being cheaper to extract it from the ground. It's not comparable to oil, which is inherently destroyed when used to propel vehicles.