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Answer Demographics, China's Working Age Population peaked 4 years ago. Since then the working age population of China has been losing over a million people a

Answer Demographics, China's Working Age Population peaked 4 years ago. Since then the working age population of China has been losing over a million people a year. Long Story Short, it is too late for China, they just don't know it yet.

zanny 11y ago
I'm guaranteeing you supply of labor is not the dominant factor in China's economic climate. The rigged economics of their core competencies has a much larger impact than the availability of cheap workers - labor markets can adjust seamlessly and effectively to less available labor by having the most valuable work done and less valuable work gets delayed. To some degree you have a cutoff valuation where less valuable work is not worth doing - in the west we call it minimum wage. I highly doubt China's economy is anywhere near that threshold yet.
- ucaetano 11y ago
  I think parent wasn't saying that supply of labor is the problem now, but that it will be in the future. If thinks are looking bad now, imagine when dependency ratio increases significantly. It's not just about absolute supply of labor, but also about how much of that labor is being used towards supporting old and young people.
  - ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
    Thanks, I'm often amazed how many people like zanny are incapable of seeing the likely future for societies who's economic and social models are dependent upon constant expansion. At this point in time it is simply too late for most of the EU and Asian nations, it is not a question of if but how the population will react when things begin to unravel. The Demographics of said nation's give us a very good idea of when.
    - imtringued 11y ago
      They already are heavily investing in robots to counteract this.
      - ucaetano 11y ago
        You're still misunderstanding this point. It ins't about labor availability, but dependency ratio (people working vs. people not working).
        zanny 11y ago
        This ratio is increasing regardless of mean population age. Automation is making even 20 year old prime-of-their-life human labor gradually obsolete.
        ucaetano 11y ago
        I wasn't clear. Dependency ratio doesn't depend on unemployment, but on people who CAN work vs. people who CAN'T work (elderly, young, sick, disabled, etc.).
- rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
  This problem isn't about using robots to refine steel or manufacture iPhones, or have workers magically move up the value stack, it's a question of who will take care of the legions of elderly Chinese. Throw in the fact that China lacks a serious social safety net and the spice of nobody wanting to be an elderly care worker, and you have a full on crises on your hands.
Moshe_Silnorin 11y ago
It will be interesting to see how more-powerful labour replacements effect these predictions. With the death of Moore's law, perhaps this point is moot, but if we get perfect replacements for intellectual and physical labour, a large population of savers may be ideally placed to benefit from the transition, as perfect mass-produced labour substitutes will likely presage enormous economic growth.
- rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
  That large population of savers is largely doing so because houses are extremely expensive and the gender gap is so wide that most (of the few) Chinese women can disregard (the very many) men without property and do so without consequence. So even if this large population of savers were to start spending their money, what are they expected to do with their lives, jack off until they die? I wonder if this point will hit home to Bay Area engineers who live and work mostly among men and can't afford a house without serious pay or a startup buyout.
  - Moshe_Silnorin 11y ago
    >So even if this large population of savers were to start spending their money, what are they expected to do with their lives, jack off until they die? VR girlfriends? A comfortable retirement as the economy expands. There have been far worse fates in history.
    - rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
      I doubt a VR girlfriend would be of much help for the (already) millions of elderly Chinese with dimentia and in need of constant care. http://www.economist.com/news/china/21693241-china-ill-prepared-consequence-ageing-lots-people-dementia-state-minds http://www.economist.com/news/china/21693241-china-ill-prepa...
adventured 11y ago
China has between 400 and 500 million fake farmers that are a readily available supply of working age labor. Supply of labor is the absolute least of China's problems. In fact, they have far too much labor compared to global consumer demand, which is why the bottom 50% of China is so poor. If China operated its farming as efficiently as South Korea, much less the US, they'd need no more than 30 million farmers. They have hundreds of millions of people producing very little output, and they're kept that way - and without any ability to own their own farms - on purpose because the state has no idea what to do with them if they're not subsistence farmers.
- ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
  I'm sorry could you please explain to me why you believe I'm talking about the supply of labor?
  - adventured 11y ago
    There's no other reason to have referenced their working age population than to talk about what their actual supply of productive labor is. Losing a mere one million people per year in working age population is entirely irrelevant when you have 400-500 million people sitting on the sidelines available to replace them. China could improve the efficiency of their farming by 0.25% each year and replace those lost one million working age persons. It's a complete non-issue, they have drastically too many working age persons and nothing for them to do.
    - ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
      Seriously? From The Article you linked to: China risks growing old before it gets rich As China’s population becomes richer and more urban, it's also getting older... Extend the graphic out a few years and its an inverted pyramid. I'm sorry you're unaware that working age population means much more to a country than simply the supply of labor...
      - adventured 11y ago

zanny 11y ago

I'm guaranteeing you supply of labor is not the dominant factor in China's economic climate. The rigged economics of their core competencies has a much larger impact than the availability of cheap workers - labor markets can adjust seamlessly and effectively to less available labor by having the most valuable work done and less valuable work gets delayed. To some degree you have a cutoff valuation where less valuable work is not worth doing - in the west we call it minimum wage. I highly doubt China's economy is anywhere near that threshold yet.

ucaetano 11y ago
I think parent wasn't saying that supply of labor is the problem now, but that it will be in the future. If thinks are looking bad now, imagine when dependency ratio increases significantly. It's not just about absolute supply of labor, but also about how much of that labor is being used towards supporting old and young people.
- ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
  Thanks, I'm often amazed how many people like zanny are incapable of seeing the likely future for societies who's economic and social models are dependent upon constant expansion. At this point in time it is simply too late for most of the EU and Asian nations, it is not a question of if but how the population will react when things begin to unravel. The Demographics of said nation's give us a very good idea of when.
  - imtringued 11y ago
    They already are heavily investing in robots to counteract this.
    - ucaetano 11y ago
      You're still misunderstanding this point. It ins't about labor availability, but dependency ratio (people working vs. people not working).
      - zanny 11y ago
        This ratio is increasing regardless of mean population age. Automation is making even 20 year old prime-of-their-life human labor gradually obsolete.
        ucaetano 11y ago
        I wasn't clear. Dependency ratio doesn't depend on unemployment, but on people who CAN work vs. people who CAN'T work (elderly, young, sick, disabled, etc.).
rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
This problem isn't about using robots to refine steel or manufacture iPhones, or have workers magically move up the value stack, it's a question of who will take care of the legions of elderly Chinese. Throw in the fact that China lacks a serious social safety net and the spice of nobody wanting to be an elderly care worker, and you have a full on crises on your hands.

Moshe_Silnorin 11y ago

It will be interesting to see how more-powerful labour replacements effect these predictions. With the death of Moore's law, perhaps this point is moot, but if we get perfect replacements for intellectual and physical labour, a large population of savers may be ideally placed to benefit from the transition, as perfect mass-produced labour substitutes will likely presage enormous economic growth.

rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
That large population of savers is largely doing so because houses are extremely expensive and the gender gap is so wide that most (of the few) Chinese women can disregard (the very many) men without property and do so without consequence. So even if this large population of savers were to start spending their money, what are they expected to do with their lives, jack off until they die? I wonder if this point will hit home to Bay Area engineers who live and work mostly among men and can't afford a house without serious pay or a startup buyout.
- Moshe_Silnorin 11y ago
  >So even if this large population of savers were to start spending their money, what are they expected to do with their lives, jack off until they die? VR girlfriends? A comfortable retirement as the economy expands. There have been far worse fates in history.
  - rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
    I doubt a VR girlfriend would be of much help for the (already) millions of elderly Chinese with dimentia and in need of constant care. http://www.economist.com/news/china/21693241-china-ill-prepared-consequence-ageing-lots-people-dementia-state-minds http://www.economist.com/news/china/21693241-china-ill-prepa...

adventured 11y ago

China has between 400 and 500 million fake farmers that are a readily available supply of working age labor. Supply of labor is the absolute least of China's problems. In fact, they have far too much labor compared to global consumer demand, which is why the bottom 50% of China is so poor. If China operated its farming as efficiently as South Korea, much less the US, they'd need no more than 30 million farmers. They have hundreds of millions of people producing very little output, and they're kept that way - and without any ability to own their own farms - on purpose because the state has no idea what to do with them if they're not subsistence farmers.

ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
I'm sorry could you please explain to me why you believe I'm talking about the supply of labor?
- adventured 11y ago
  There's no other reason to have referenced their working age population than to talk about what their actual supply of productive labor is. Losing a mere one million people per year in working age population is entirely irrelevant when you have 400-500 million people sitting on the sidelines available to replace them. China could improve the efficiency of their farming by 0.25% each year and replace those lost one million working age persons. It's a complete non-issue, they have drastically too many working age persons and nothing for them to do.
  - ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
    Seriously? From The Article you linked to: China risks growing old before it gets rich As China’s population becomes richer and more urban, it's also getting older... Extend the graphic out a few years and its an inverted pyramid. I'm sorry you're unaware that working age population means much more to a country than simply the supply of labor...
    - adventured 11y ago