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My personal suspicion goes way beyond VW in this case. Look at it this way. If someone in your domain of expertise would put out a feat, that according to your
by PeterStuer 11y ago
My personal suspicion goes way beyond VW in this case. Look at it this way. If someone in your domain of expertise would put out a feat, that according to your experience is just so far beyond the state of the art that it seems to realy violate the rules of what you think possible, and you work in a highly competitive field, then your competitive intelligence will be all over it. Every diesel engine R&D center at any auto maker would have inspected, measured, tested and dismantled these engines to the very last detail. And they would all have discovered the simple truth they suspected all along (benchmark cheating through test cycle detection and software manipulation is nothing new in the industry. Automakers have been caught en fined for this at least since 1998). Yet, none of these competitors spoke up about it. Why?
- jacquesm 11y agoYou could very well be on to something there, see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10717216 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10717216 9 Vehicles tested under driving conditions for NOx emissions.
- kuschku 11y agoIndeed. And it is troubling to see only VW being targetted here, and with extremely high potential fines shown in the media. If it turns out that other competitors did the same, VW – and even other German companies, due to the hit the brand "Made in Germany" got from this – might be able to sue the US via ISDS for lost sales in hundreds of billions.
- jacquesm 11y agoThat's not how it works, what will happen instead is that those other manufacturers will also be hit hard by the US regulatory entities.
- kuschku 11y agoThat does not matter. The media focus has been solely on VW, despite others doing the same. This is enough that VW can show to be unfairly targeted, as it’s standard market practice. If VW can show that others did the same, but did not get the same media resonance, then VW can sue for the lost sales based on an estimation of the difference in reputation loss. Hell, even other companies in Germany have reported lost sales due to the "German engineering = pollution" that US media have pushed recently.
- jacquesm 11y ago> The media focus has been solely on VW, despite others doing the same. That's because there is evidence about VW. > This is enough that VW can show to be unfairly targeted, as it’s standard market practice. No, it really is not. > If VW can show that others did the same, but did not get the same media resonance, then VW can sue for the lost sales based on an estimation of the difference in reputation loss. It's an interesting theory about how the law could work but unfortunately somewhat detached from what I know about how the law actually works. VW does not get to claim any 'lost sales' directly attributable to their own conduct, regardless of who reported on it and how frequently even if all their competitors did it too. If VW has evidence that other manufacturers cheat as well they're probably more than welcome to present it. (And if they had such evidence they probably would.) > Hell, even other companies in Germany have reported lost sales due to the "German engineering = pollution" that US media have pushed recently. Yes, and VW is to blame for that. Not the US media.
- kuschku 11y agoThe original report that caused this whole thing presented evidence for 9 companies. 9. VW is not the only one in this whole situation.
- waterlesscloud 11y agoWho specifically do you imagine they could sue?
- 11y ago
- nradov 11y agoThere is no plausible legal theory under which VW or other German brands could successfully sue ISDS.
- kuschku 11y agoEh, yes? If a US company does the same, but does not get the same media exposure, reputation loss, and fees, then it is unfair targeting. VW can then directly sue, because they, as foreign company, were targeted, but another US manufacturer was not.
- nradov 11y agoThat is simply not how it works in the US civil court system. Ask an attorney.
- raesene99 11y agoYou might want to look a bit more into ISDS.. it's an international court which is agreed to in various trade treaties and allows corporations to sue foreign governments where that governments policies negatively affect the corporation. One of the big concerns with TTP/TTIP is that they will expand the use and applicability of ISDS processes and this could impact things like environmental legislation. Part of the concern about the use of ISDS is that the hearings are generally held in secret. In this case I guess if it could be proven that the US government disadvantaged VW by applying fines to them whilst not prosecuting other companies who have done similar things, then if ISDS applies to this trade, it may be possible for VW to sue...
- jacquesm 11y agoOnly in those situations where the US government can be proven to have access to the same level of proof that fraud is being committed compared to the information they had on VW. Chances of success of such an operation: 0. Effect on the PR situation: -10000. Likelihood of engaging in such an action by VW: 0. Anybody except for VW would be in a position to make a move regarding other manufacturers, according to a document linked elsewhere from a German auto magazine there is plenty of reason to suspect that other manufacturers are engaging in similar practices but nobody to date has proof.
- kr4 11y agoThere's a geo-political angle to this targeting. You'd find that the VW emition scandle and fine announcement came just during the time when Germany leaders were starting to get a bit cozy with Russia over sanctions ETC (I remember it was latter half of September, you can check these facts by searching Google.)
- jacquesm 11y agoBollocks, the whole thing was initiated by a European non-profit that contracted the WVU.
- kuschku 11y agoEh, the non-profit thing happened in 2013/2014. The EPA ignored the results for a full year. The VW CEO already resigned in April, several months before the EPA went crazy, due to it.
- jacquesm 11y agoThe reason a year passed is because the report does not indeed contain the sentence 'VW committed fraud', it simply notes some exceptional real-world performance issues for a specific vehicle under test and left it at that. The EPA then had to do a whole pile of work to figure out what exactly was going on and this led to the discovery of the defeat-the-test device.
- kr4 11y agoPlease read my other comments with facts supporting it https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10718312 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10718312 actions of this magnitude are generally guided by multiple and often hidden interests/agenda. Only if we able to perceive the bigger picture by analyzing from different angles.
- jacquesm 11y agoSorry, but that's just a smokescreen (pun not intended, hard to avoid). Yes, VW got hit hard, but there is only one party that could have taken action to avoid this: VW itself. If they cheated that's entirely their choice. If other manufacturers have in fact cheated (and the evidence seems to be mounting that they did but maybe not quite as blatantly) then their turn will surely come.
- rconti 11y agoI don't know enough German to follow, but Google Translate helps me out a bit. Here's my question: We know VW had a cheat device to specifically detect the test and switch to a different map. These other tests that show the cars pollute more in the "real world", is there any evidence that they actually detect the test and cheat like VW did? Or are they merely optimized for the speeds used in the test? These are two entirely different things. There's a huge difference between gaming the test and outright cheating. In one case, if you drive very very gently in the real world, you will get the test results. In the other case (VW) you could never hit those pollution numbers no matter how gently you drive (or how perfectly you replicate the testing drive cycle).
- jacquesm 11y agoThe second, from the evidence available to date.
- phkn1 11y agoIn particular, this summary graphic is telling: http://img3.auto-motor-und-sport.de/Abgastest-Wertung-fotoshowBigImage-b8cf4c5-913183.jpg http://img3.auto-motor-und-sport.de/Abgastest-Wertung-fotosh... (blurry, sorry) At the top of the NOx scale we have a VW TDI engine (albeit in an Audi Quatro application). Near the bottom of the NOx scale we have... a VW TDI engine. In other words, VW already had the capability to eliminate the emissions through design, but chose to cheat the tests instead. That is rather damning evidence, and serves as a rebuttal for those who think that VW is somehow being unfairly targeted. Clearly, many other companies also need to lower their emissions, and regulators need to adopt meaningful tests. But to cheat the tests that do exist, and for no clear need (except possibly profit margins) is inexcusable.
- jacquesm 11y agoWhat was at stake was to be able to sell into the US at all. For VW that may have been 'worth the risk', I think retrospectively they're happy to agree that it probably wasn't.
- caskance 11y agoIf you assigned engineers to disassemble your competitor's product to figure out how it worked, you would put yourself at grave risk of patent suits if you let them use that knowledge in any way in developing your own products. There's a reason clean room design is used. With something mechanical like an engine, that means reverse engineering is probably not helpful enough to be worth doing.
- edge17 11y agoWhile I understand your point, this does still happen with competitors products.
- kuschku 11y agoNo? The ECJ (European Court of Justice) even referred to the "Standard practice of disassembling competitors cars and using the gained knowledge in your own cars" while making a landmark decision that declared the right for decompiling non-negotiable.
- nradov 11y agoOne of my relatives worked for decades in the cost estimation department of a major auto manufacturer. They disassembled every competing vehicle to obtain competitive intelligence on profit margins and assembly techniques. Everyone does this.
- janfoeh 11y agoIf anybody is interested in this kind of thing, here is an hour-long talk with a freelance analyst who disassembled the BMW i3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDr4L6BzpP8&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDr4L6BzpP8&feature=youtu.be His agency is selling that report for $500,000. I found the whole thing quite fascinating.
- jacquesm 11y agoI'd love to read that report. There are a few close ups of pages in the video. That guy has one of the most interesting jobs!
- PeterStuer 11y agoJacques, the previous date is based on this document from 1998 ( http://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/media/T&E%2098-3_0.pdf http://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/media/T&E... ), which states: "Car manufacturers can use modem electronic equipment to adapt the engine to any type of test cycle. They can even tell the computer of the car how to recognise when the car is being driven according to a specific test-cycle and adjust the combustion accordingly. It was this kind of software that six truck manufacturers, including two European firms (Volvo and Renault), recently used in the United States to defeat the EPA's pollution control. As a result emissions of nitrogen oxides from highway driving increased by 300 per cent. "
- jacquesm 11y agoThat takes this from 'damning' right into 'criminal' territory. Wow. That document should get a lot more visibility. I will update the article to include your link.
- Terretta 11y agoNot comfortable with this "don't blame the engineers" angle, which sounds like some developers are taking the fall for execs. We are talking about engineers, yes, but, guys like the research and development chiefs of Audi and Porsche, Ulrich Hackenberg and Wolfgang Hatz, or Hanno Jelden, head of the company's powertrain electronics. These guys are top execs. Likely substantial performance incentive packages. Such execs, like any CTO anywhere, could run a "special project" like this off the radar, to hit projected metrics, and bonus targets. Don't take VW's word for it, here is the German prosecutor's take: > The number of Volkswagen employees that orchestrated the diesel-emissions scandal that's rocked the automotive industry was likely fewer than 10, according to the public prosecutor's office in Braunschweig, Germany. http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/23/fewer-than-10-vw-engineers-may-have-been-involved-in-diesel-defe/ http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/23/fewer-than-10-vw-engineer... Often we engineers know things the CEO doesn't. I'm confident that happens across industries.
- nitrogen 11y ago
- throwawaymerc 11y ago"Would you believe it if you received a letter from Mercedes Benz informing you that you had won a lucky draw and your gift was a “FREE INSPECTION!!” but in actual fact they intended to replace your turbocharger without informing you? These and many more shocking practices were carried out in absolute arrogance and with a view to keep the third rate quality of Mercedes Benz Cars a secret."[0] >My personal suspicion goes way beyond VW in this case. You're right. Automotive companies are pretty notorious for these kinds of things. Edit: Formatting, typo [0]http://www.thetruthaboutmercedes.com/home.html http://www.thetruthaboutmercedes.com/home.html
- macjohnmcc 11y agoMy wife has a 2002 Mercedes vehicle. It has 82000 miles on it now but fewer than 65000 miles when it needed $5,000 worth of work to replace a stretched timing belt. Something that should never be a problem but especially on a low mileage vehicle that was driven gently. Her driver side seat heater also started to short, a known issue, never recalled. I consider Mercedes to be overpriced garbage.
- jacquesm 11y agoThat site does not exactly instill confidence (and I don't mean in Mercedes). Now, 'don't shoot the messenger' is good practice and it is easy to slide into an ad-hominem attack on that website when not intending to but the language ('the shocking truth about 'x''), claims that the evil media are ingoring them and such make me feel that there is a bit of an agenda at work here. I also wonder why you post this anonymously, it's just another link.
- kr4 11y agoSome people in this thread rightfully raising a valid question that this cheating would be present in models of other manufacturers so why VW was only targeted and that with such a big fine announced in media which toppled VW's stocks by 20% (effectively losing $100B of market value) and also causing irreparable harm to German auto industry. SO, you need to see the bigger picture here. There's a geo-political angle to it. On sept12 [0] reported: >>> Germany is surprisingly quitting the anti-Putin Alliance created by the United States: Germany now officially welcomes Moscow’s readiness to engage with Syria and launches an initiative to end the war with the Russians and the French. Thus, the stream of refugees is to be stopped. Germany put thousands of soldiers on standby. Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen told der Spiegel, they Welcome Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s involvement in the fight against the extremist Islamic State. It is in the common interest, to combat the IS, she said. A spokesman of the Foreign Ministry also said Germany would welcome a greater engagement of Russia in the fight against the IS. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier even announced, with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and the French colleague Laurent Fabius, a push to start to end the civil war in Syria. Lavrov and Fabius are expected in Berlin on Saturday. <<< Then within a week, this VW scandal suddenly comes into public thrashing Germany major auto industry. On 22Sept [1] reported: >>> What you need to know about the Volkswagen scandal Now you see the results: Germany France etc have now joined US coalition in the name of fighting ISIS. but there's more to it, which you can read in my comment [2]. 0: http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/09/12/syria-germany-breaks-out-of-u-s-alliance-against-russia/ http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/09/12/syria-germany-breaks... 1L http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/22/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-volkswagen-scandal.html http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/22/what-you-need-to-know-about-t... 2: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10580490 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10580490
- xixi77 11y agoOther manufacturers (e.g. BMW -- pretty sure the same is true for Audi) do not have the same issue; in fact, the original report is very clear on that matter: the issue is specific to VW. The reason is that other manufacturers rely on injecting a pollution-neutralizing compound at exhaust time (there is a separate tank for that stuff), whereas VW claimed that they have been able to design engines that do not require this (obviously costly and undesirable) step, and are clean all by themselves.
- adharmad 11y agoBecause they did not want to. Because they were doing the same thing themselves, albeit to varying degrees. The same can be said about the 1990s baseball scandal. Suddenly, out of nowhere, there were dozens of players bulking up and hitting 60-70 home runs regularly. No one (except maybe Pete Rose) spoke up about this.
- gulfie 11y ago"The first rule of Fight Club is : You don't talk about Fight Club." -Tyler You get into the gang by sharing an existential threat to the group. Be it killing someone to get into a gang, be it telling your life's secrets while lying naked in a coffin ( http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/esp_sociopol_skullbones12.htm http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/esp_sociopol... ), attaining seat at the MAD ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction ) table by stocking nuclear weapons, or signing on to a hot new scrappy startup for just enough to live paycheck to paycheck and keep frozen burritos on the breakfast table. When the sharks circle, they tend to go after the weaker pray spices rather than those able to draw serious repercussions. The consumer as chum. Line employees are next. Then maybe a scape goat or two. Lots of managers use the phrases 'by whatever means necessary', 'it must be done', 'just ship it', "we'll fix it later", and M.V.P. . The naive will say that "management just doesn't understand!". To someone who is paying attention this is building a cut out of responsibility. In the Kabuki theater of corporate politics this often suffices for blame shedding. Remember the goal is to accept garner credit for good things and blame shed the bad things, helping things get done a product to be made or whatever is ancillary to the individuals goals in the modern company due to the average length of employment being so very low. "All this has happened before, and will happen again." -cylon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming