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India’s Economic Growth Accelerates
- meow_mix 11y agoPlease stop posting paywall'd articles
- jeffjose 11y agoStep 1 - search for the article on Google - https://www.google.com/search?q=India’s+Economic+Growth+Accelerates https://www.google.com/search?q=India’s+Economic+Growth+Acce... Step 2 - Click.
- FlyingSnake 11y agoOr better: Click on the 'web' link next to comments.
- myth_buster 11y agoOptionally click on "Web" 9 points by kungfudoi 1 hour ago | flag | past | WEB | 2 comments
- dangerpowpow 11y agoaccess it via incognito. agree btw
- melling 11y agohttps://h4labs.wordpress.com/2015/09/14/hacker-news-faq-1-how-do-i-read-an-article-behind-a-paywall/ https://h4labs.wordpress.com/2015/09/14/hacker-news-faq-1-ho...
- garrettgrimsley 11y ago>Are paywalls ok? >It's ok to post stories from sites with paywalls that have workarounds. >In comments, it's ok to ask how to read an article and to help other users do so. But please don't post complaints about paywalls. Those are off topic. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html
- rdlecler1 11y agoNow that China's commodity supercycle has ended, and commodity prices remain soft, this is a good time for India to focus on infrastructure. They haven't produced the Alibabas or Weibos but they have an amazingly solid IT work force and we've seen more and more VC in India. This could be the start of a real break out for India.
- bryanwb 11y agothis is great but at the same time terrifying. India thus far has committed to power its growth using coal-fired plants. We in the west have definitely committed our sins in this regard, however India is particularly vulnerable to the changes caused by global warming
- melling 11y agoWe've had almost 5 decades to make renewable energy cheaper than coal. We've been trying since the energy crisis of the 1970s. Nuclear, solar, wind, etc. It seems unfair that a billion people remain uneducated and in poverty because a small percentage of the world's population refused to make the necessary changes. Before there was Al Gore, there was Carl Sagan: http://youtu.be/G_3pZXhKVWY http://youtu.be/G_3pZXhKVWY
- bryanwb 11y agototally! however US and Canada are big w/ relatively small populations. People can move around, they can adjust. India doesn't have the same luxury
- eloff 11y agoI think it could be argued that some global warming could be a net benefit for Canada. As long as it stays below the level that would cause global catastrophe. Sea level rise will cause some issues, but Canada really has very few large cities on the coast and there are (expensive) ways of dealing with that, just like all other coastal cities will need to do in the coming century. But on the other side of the equation it would extend growing seasons and increase the amount of arable and forested land in the vast interior of the country. Changes in rainfall will be a mixed bag, bringing adjustment, but likely not ruin. Maybe this is a very simplistic way of looking at it, but as a Canadian I've always selfishly looked at global warming and said "bring it on". Of course global warming could reach a point where it causes serious catastrophe on a global scale, e.g. releasing methane deposits on the sea floor and going into a feedback loop. That's a losing scenario for the entire planet, and there's no guarantees yet that we will avoid that fate.
- it_learnses 11y agothis is a claim according to the Indian government. Not necessarily true. A related year old article on Quora: https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Indias-GDP-growth-rate-of-7-0-for-year-2014-is-a-false-using-the-new-calculation-method https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Indias-GDP-growth-rate-of-7-0-f...
- tinkerrr 11y agoDo you have a good source for this, or should be take every anonymous Quora answer with literally zero references as the authoritative source on a topic as complex as the economy? The comment is obviously flawed since it's trying to equate the GDP to industrial production. In the US, for instance, the annualized industrial production has been -1.8% [1] but the GDP growth has been +3.4% annualized [2]. This is a difference of 4.2 percentage points, similar to India's per the comment. Also, India's export growth is around 1% - not exceptional, but definitely not -10% as stated in the Quora comment [3]. [1] http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=us+industrial+production http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=us+industrial+productio... [2] http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=us+gdp+growth http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=us+gdp+growth [3] http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=india+export+growth http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=india+export+growth
- fauigerzigerk 11y agoI agree. It is also worth noting that what goes into GDP in terms of trade is net exports, i.e. exports - imports. Lower commodity prices have given a huge boost to that GDP component as India is a net consumer of commodities. That said, I don't know how accurate India's official figures are. But I doubt that they are less reliable than the Chinese ones.
- it_learnses 11y agohttp://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/06/05/india-gdp-growth-is-one-third-statistical-illusion/ http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/06/05/india-gdp-... http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/09/news/economy/india-gdp-growth-mystery/ http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/09/news/economy/india-gdp-growt...
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- sremani 11y agoIndia will have a good run, as long as oil prices remain low. It still have to do reforms which the Central and State governments are not willing to do. Even though Modi is supposed to be the pro-business friendly messiah, the politics and yearly elections at state level put certain binds and limitations. India will have growth, and lot of people will be millionaires but I would be surprised even in 2030 if India surpasses UK or Germany, and makes into TOP 5. The economic policies are not cohesive and politics for a lack of better word are "Tribal".
- npalli 11y ago> I would be surprised even in 2030 if India surpasses UK I would be surprised it if didn't surpass the UK by then. According to IMF[1], the 2015 GDP of UK and India are 2864 and 2182 Billions USD. All India needs to do is grow about 18% faster than the UK. Assuming UK grows at 3.0% that is 4.8% for India. Hard to see how in the next decade or so of low commodity prices, booming working population, low debt overhang, china slowdown etc., India does worse than that. I would not be surprised if India overtook UK before 2025. [1] http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/index.aspx http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/inde...
- ameen 11y agoAre you Indian? The new government has started imposing new levies and commodities are at an all time high. The CoL is getting ridiculously expensive and one could live comfortably in a few western countries at this rate. Greed and corruption are pulling India further down than portrayed. Farmer suicides are alarmingly high. IT companies are losing lucrative overseas projects as well. The need of the hour is to be economically mindful and invest in holistic education and hope not to fall into a corrupt/beauracatic trap.
- nautical 11y agoPlease quote the sources of data for your claims ... From what I see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farmers%27_suicides_in_India#/media/File:Total_and_farmers_suicide_rate_per_100000_in_India,_time_trend.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farmers%27_suicides_in_India#/...
- myth_buster 11y agoSignificant point mentioned midway: The country’s growth also got a boost this year when government statisticians changed the way they calculated GDP. From the linked article: The Indian statistics ministry said that after updating the base year used for marking trends in the economy and switching to a market-price calculation of gross domestic product, the economy grew by 6.9% in the year that ended last March. Using the previous methodology, GDP expansion that year was 4.7%. China’s economy grew by 7.4% in the 2014 calendar year.
- ayushgta 11y agohttp://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/04/18/indias-change-in-gdp-calculation-method-seems-highly-sensible/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/04/18/indias-ch...
- roymurdock 11y agoJust to expand on the two revisions: Since January 2010, the base year for India’s statisticians had been the 12 months that ended in March 2005. From now on, it will be the year that ended March 2012. The revised calculation also incorporates more- comprehensive data on corporate activity and newer surveys of spending by households and informal businesses. The government also said Friday that its benchmark measure of economic growth will henceforth be based on market prices, not on factor costs. The latter method, which India had previously preferred, tabulates economic activity based on the costs of production, whereas the other method is based on the amounts paid by consumers. Most countries and international bodies calculate GDP based on market prices. The base year for any country's GDP calculation is normally recalibrated every 5 years or so to adjust for structural differences in an economy - sustained changes in the prices and of goods and services that are not attributed to inflation, which pegging to the CPI of a base year is intended to mitigate. These structural changes in the economy are due to new technology, changes in the production process, changes in social/cultural norms, etc. Anything that affects supply and demand other than price level. So this isn't a big deal. The more interesting piece of the puzzle is the decision to move from cost-of-inputs based calculation to an expenditure calculation. This is an accounting problem for any economy that is transitioning from a goods-based economy to a services-based economy. In developing economies, a lot of value is produced outside of the market - eg cooking, cleaning, raising children vs. eating at restaurants, hiring cleaners, hiring nannies, daycare, etc. As more of these non-market goods/services move into the realm of the market, they start to count towards GDP under this new expenditure-based GDP calculation. This can lead to overinflated, overoptimistic growth projections. At the end of the day, most countries calculate GDP using expenditure-based vs. cost-of-production so it means we will be comparing apples to apples when we talk about GDP in the US vs. the UK vs. India. But the real question is: when will we create a better measure of growth than GDP? One that factors in pollution and emissions at the very least is long overdue.
- allpratik 11y agoCurrent Indian government has started playing with numbers, it can backfire. Below article mentions some not-so good numbers. http://www.firstpost.com/business/11-reasons-why-india-growing-at-7-4-is-simply-not-believable-2527766.html http://www.firstpost.com/business/11-reasons-why-india-growi...
- npalli 11y agoI don't know if the govt. is massaging numbers, but the very first 'problem with GDP' in the list makes no sense. GDP is calculated on net exports (exports - imports). So to evaluate the increase or decrease in GDP you need to know what happened on the imports side. India is massive energy and commodity importer, and energy has more than halved in price over last year. Without knowing how much the imports have fallen how can you assert its impact on GDP. Given india imports commodities and exports finished products it would not be surprising if the actual GDP rose (net exports).
- marcosdumay 11y agoIndia has been for some years consistently making the news on great and diverse systematic corruption fighting actions. Good to my theory that corruption is the main reason why (democratic) countries don't develop. As far as I know, I have only Italy as example of country that fought corruption and didn't grow after it.
- eronhp 11y agoItaly was already a developed nation and birth rates have been falling for some time.
- tn13 11y agoThe accelerated growth might be a result of lower oil prices than anything else. It will be interesting to see how the current government goes ahead with the necessary reforms to ensure that the growth is sustainable.