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I remember ten years ago when worrying about Peak Oil was all the rage. You don't hear too much about that nowadays…

by lexcorvus 11y ago

DanBC 11y ago
You do. Oil sands delayed peak oil a bit, but it's still there.
- cpncrunch 11y ago
  Not only oil sands, but shale oil, deepwater oil, etc.
api 11y ago
It's more a misunderstanding of economics. Conventional "stick a tube in the ground" oil may well have peaked or may peak soon, but there's more oil around than that. It's also not entirely clear that peak oil would mean "oil prices will always go up." If anything, it could lead to successive rounds of demand destruction. I think the most likely scenario would be a "sawtooth wave" price on the way down the peak as rising costs lead to substitution (gas, EVs) and demand destruction (recessions, people moving closer to where they work) which in turn causes price declines. The ultimate demand destruction would be large-scale investment in public transit, which has to some extent been spurred by crazy gas prices.
TillE 11y ago
It's obviously a matter of when, not if. It's difficult to put an exact estimate on when oil scarcity will become a true crisis, but we can all agree that it's a non-renewable resource which will not be around forever.
- lexcorvus 11y ago
  It's obviously a matter of when, not if It was just as obvious a hundred years ago that horse manure piling up in city streets was just going to keep getting worse. we can all agree that it's a non-renewable resource which will not be around forever True but irrelevant. The oil supply is finite only in physical terms, not in economic terms. It is possible to extract an unbounded amount of value from a bounded resource. All you need is an increasing price, which happens automatically as supplies decrease, and which provides an incentive for substitution. I'd happily take a wager that humanity will transition off petroleum long before we "run out" of oil.
  - jfoutz 11y ago
    In some sense, peak oil happened. All of the easily accessible, abundant oil has been used up. Now you need a higher level of technology to extract oil. Because that's more expensive to produce than the easy stuff, renewables are catching up. The stuff really is more challenging to produce, you need much more understanding and higher quality tools. Fortunately we're enjoying the compound interest of computers, software, material science and a million other fields that make difficult things simpler. I won't take your transition bet, but i would bet if we had to extract oil using only technology older than 2000, we'd be pretty screwed.
chromaton 11y ago
Here's what I found out about the use of the term "Peak Oil". https://planiverse.wordpress.com/2015/08/14/peak-oil-peak/ https://planiverse.wordpress.com/2015/08/14/peak-oil-peak/
dwharrison 11y ago
All the assumptions underlying the "Peak Oil" theory have been invalided by new technology. Eventually we'll get there, but not this century...and possibly never if non-petroleum energy sources are developed between now and the end of the century. Remember, petroleum was the answer to the "Peak Oil" problem of the 1840's & 50's. We were running out of whale oil...and the solution wasn't more efficient ways to hunt and kill whales (though that did extend the life of the industry by a couple of decades). The solution was an entirely new energy source. Petroleum will undergo the same transition...and the new recovery technology has bought the world a few additional decades to find that solution...
- Dylan16807 11y ago
  "Peak Oil" just says we stop mining as much oil with a certain graph shape, not that the world ends. Transitioning to a new energy source is compatible and preferable.
  - xrange 11y ago
    >not that the world ends Lexcorvus and I apparently have similar memories, because my recollection is that all the articles discussing peak oil had a mandatory section predicting the eminent demise of Western Civilization (and quite a large percentage were giddy at the notion).
    - Dylan16807 11y ago
      That's just journalism being journalism. Plus, it was harder to see what could replace a significant fraction of oil before solar and battery prices dropped so much, and uncertainty and lack-of-planning is worth some worry.
    - vonmoltke 11y ago
      IIRC, the fearmongering was based on the idea that the world's consumption of oil was continuously increasing. Thus, if supply stopped increasing Bad Things would happen because it would put the brakes on society.

I remember ten years ago when worrying about Peak Oil was all the rage. You don't hear too much about that nowadays…

DanBC 11y ago

You do. Oil sands delayed peak oil a bit, but it's still there.

cpncrunch 11y ago
Not only oil sands, but shale oil, deepwater oil, etc.

api 11y ago

It's more a misunderstanding of economics. Conventional "stick a tube in the ground" oil may well have peaked or may peak soon, but there's more oil around than that. It's also not entirely clear that peak oil would mean "oil prices will always go up." If anything, it could lead to successive rounds of demand destruction. I think the most likely scenario would be a "sawtooth wave" price on the way down the peak as rising costs lead to substitution (gas, EVs) and demand destruction (recessions, people moving closer to where they work) which in turn causes price declines. The ultimate demand destruction would be large-scale investment in public transit, which has to some extent been spurred by crazy gas prices.

TillE 11y ago

It's obviously a matter of when, not if. It's difficult to put an exact estimate on when oil scarcity will become a true crisis, but we can all agree that it's a non-renewable resource which will not be around forever.

lexcorvus 11y ago
It's obviously a matter of when, not if It was just as obvious a hundred years ago that horse manure piling up in city streets was just going to keep getting worse. we can all agree that it's a non-renewable resource which will not be around forever True but irrelevant. The oil supply is finite only in physical terms, not in economic terms. It is possible to extract an unbounded amount of value from a bounded resource. All you need is an increasing price, which happens automatically as supplies decrease, and which provides an incentive for substitution. I'd happily take a wager that humanity will transition off petroleum long before we "run out" of oil.
- jfoutz 11y ago
  In some sense, peak oil happened. All of the easily accessible, abundant oil has been used up. Now you need a higher level of technology to extract oil. Because that's more expensive to produce than the easy stuff, renewables are catching up. The stuff really is more challenging to produce, you need much more understanding and higher quality tools. Fortunately we're enjoying the compound interest of computers, software, material science and a million other fields that make difficult things simpler. I won't take your transition bet, but i would bet if we had to extract oil using only technology older than 2000, we'd be pretty screwed.

chromaton 11y ago

Here's what I found out about the use of the term "Peak Oil". https://planiverse.wordpress.com/2015/08/14/peak-oil-peak/ https://planiverse.wordpress.com/2015/08/14/peak-oil-peak/

dwharrison 11y ago

All the assumptions underlying the "Peak Oil" theory have been invalided by new technology. Eventually we'll get there, but not this century...and possibly never if non-petroleum energy sources are developed between now and the end of the century. Remember, petroleum was the answer to the "Peak Oil" problem of the 1840's & 50's. We were running out of whale oil...and the solution wasn't more efficient ways to hunt and kill whales (though that did extend the life of the industry by a couple of decades). The solution was an entirely new energy source. Petroleum will undergo the same transition...and the new recovery technology has bought the world a few additional decades to find that solution...

Dylan16807 11y ago
"Peak Oil" just says we stop mining as much oil with a certain graph shape, not that the world ends. Transitioning to a new energy source is compatible and preferable.
- xrange 11y ago
  >not that the world ends Lexcorvus and I apparently have similar memories, because my recollection is that all the articles discussing peak oil had a mandatory section predicting the eminent demise of Western Civilization (and quite a large percentage were giddy at the notion).
  - Dylan16807 11y ago
    That's just journalism being journalism. Plus, it was harder to see what could replace a significant fraction of oil before solar and battery prices dropped so much, and uncertainty and lack-of-planning is worth some worry.
  - vonmoltke 11y ago
    IIRC, the fearmongering was based on the idea that the world's consumption of oil was continuously increasing. Thus, if supply stopped increasing Bad Things would happen because it would put the brakes on society.