zamfi

76 ms·

871.
by zamfi 7y ago
> Regardless I many people who had preexisting conditions pre-ACA, and it never affected coverage. This mostly affected the individual and small-group markets, in which a pre-existing condition either disqualified you for coverage, made
872.
by zamfi 7y ago
That is high, but that study assumes a serial interval of 6-9 days, which is on the far long end of estimates I’ve seen (~4 days). That basically explains the difference...
873.
by zamfi 7y ago
> The claims about shopping are...unsupported and go contrary to an enormous volume of evidence (namely the high R0). Honestly? An R0 of 2-3 is frankly not that high. If grocery shopping were a huge risk, and people spread the disease
874.
by zamfi 7y ago
> The state is created by the class of people who own capital, in order to mediate, protect, justify and manage a world in which they continue to own and profit from their ownership of capital. In the US, at least, this is a very large c
875.
by zamfi 7y ago
That the official numbers underreport Covid-19 deaths by a factor of 4 is one hypothesis -- but it's also possible that this is how many people would be saved by quick interventions at the hospital, but who otherwise died. For example,
876.
by zamfi 7y ago
My apologies, you are right -- I should have said "4% each year independently of each prior year" -- and it's true that only the negation needs to be independent.
877.
by zamfi 7y ago
If you assume 4% each year independently of each other year, then the chance of not having nuclear war is 96% in any given year. Over 30 years, your chance of no war is (0.96)^30 = 30%.
878.
by zamfi 7y ago
> There is evidence that this was what happened due to pandemics traditionally being named after where they originated. This is just false, most pandemics are named for where they had their greatest effects, or for really old ones, who w
879.
by zamfi 7y ago
For the record, Spanish flu was not named so because anyone believed it came from Spain, but because, in the midst of WWI, Spain was neutral and the only heavily-affected country that allowed reporting on the severity of the flu. One hypo
880.
by zamfi 7y ago
> The vast majority of software professionals are not researchers, and are not trained in evaluating computer science research. They are notoriously poor at assessing such information. Seem less ridiculous?
881.
by zamfi 7y ago
> Italy got the growth rate down to 15% per day. That's still enough to hit the whole population by early May. We won't know the lockdown's effect until all the severe cases from people who got sick pre-lockdown have shown
882.
by zamfi 7y ago
Most of the proximate-causes of death from COVID-19 come from the immune system in overdrive killing healthy cells in addition to infected ones. Not sure you want a stronger immune system in that case; you probably want to reduce inflammati
883.
by zamfi 7y ago
> It's encouraging that a retrospective analysis confirmed that the Wuhan lockdown had the intended effect however, to reduce the true spread of cases. If Wuhan is a guide, we should know starting Saturday if the lockdown in Italy i
884.
by zamfi 7y ago
5% of cases need hospitalization for ~2-3 weeks; 2% require an ICU; 1% a ventilator. We have 96k ICU beds (and 160k ventilators) in the USA. Most constrained means we can't have more than 4.8 million sick at a given time -- but that&#x
885.
by zamfi 7y ago
This is not clear. Right now we need lockdown because: a) We have a large number of infected people (> 10,000) and have no idea who or where they are, because testing sucks. b) If exponential growth continues (and it would, because we ca
886.
by zamfi 7y ago
The original question was what to do post-lockdown. To be clear, lockdown is the only option for the US right now. But then what?
887.
by zamfi 7y ago
I’m surprised that no one here is mentioning the example of South Korea. [1] They are not in total lockdown, but they are doing extensive testing and contact tracing, and substantial isolation of anyone who might be contagious. Once we get
888.
by zamfi 7y ago
Yes, in non-pandemic times that is true. :)
889.
by zamfi 7y ago
Dangerous assumption -- most domestic and international flights are the cheapest I have ever seen them.
890.
by zamfi 7y ago
> headed to mitigation Not for long, as this approach will clearly appear to be a disaster when mortality rates exceed 5% because of a lack of ICU care to handle the thousands of severe cases. The response will be swift, but two weeks to
891.
by zamfi 7y ago
Huh, interesting hypothesis. But I wonder why flu hits very young children so hard, then? Is SARS-CoV-2 more handily defeated by the innate system than flu?
892.
by zamfi 7y ago
> Also the bit about being no worse than the flu is not true for any age group It does appear to be true for the very young (ages 0-9), who are at relatively high risk from flu (especially <2), but at shockingly low risk at dying from
893.
by zamfi 7y ago
Yes, of course they do now -- I interpreted the poster I was replying to as suggesting that hospitals keep this on hand at all times.
894.
by zamfi 7y ago
> i don't understand why medical facilities don't have a several month supply in storage They might have several months' supply under normal circumstances in storage -- but when suddenly all their staff need one 24/
895.
by zamfi 7y ago
Are you me? This is just NYC & SF! :)
896.
by zamfi 7y ago
Prices fluctuate all the time. How many tons of CO2 are consumed by the machine that spins yarn? Sure there’s an added cost, but of pennies — this strikes me as a weak counter argument. At a nominal price of $20/ton, a few things will
897.
by zamfi 7y ago
> pricing carbon externalities into all goods now and offering a dividend later Nothing prevents the dividend from being offered upfront. It would be trivial for most governments to finance this. Ask someone living paycheck to paycheck i
898.
by zamfi 7y ago
Not sure what you mean — prime members get faster shipping on prime items, so maybe it showed her the vender with “prime” and that was $10 more expensive.
899.
by zamfi 7y ago
Interesting. Maybe it showed you the lowest-cost vendor, and showed her the lowest-cost vendor with Prime shipping ? And the difference was $10? Or was it shipped from and sold by the same place?
900.
by zamfi 7y ago
> Just yesterday I looked up something on Amazon. Sent the link to my girlfriend. She saw a price that was $10 more. Out of curiosity, are you and your girlfriend in the same geographic market & served by the same amazon warehouse? A

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