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If you assume 4% each year independently of each other year, then the chance of not having nuclear war is 96% in any given year. Over 30 years, your chance of n
by zamfi 7y ago
If you assume 4% each year independently of each other year, then the chance of not having nuclear war is 96% in any given year. Over 30 years, your chance of no war is (0.96)^30 = 30%.
- dragonwriter 7y ago> If you assume 4% each year independently of each other year, then the chance of not having nuclear war is 96% in any given year. Over 30 years, your chance of no war is (0.96)^30 = 30%. It's clearly not independent though, but this calculation remains true if you assume only that not having a nuclear war doesn't change the odds for future years, even if having one does.
- zamfi 7y agoMy apologies, you are right -- I should have said "4% each year independently of each prior year" -- and it's true that only the negation needs to be independent.