xscott

55 ms·

631.
by xscott 7y ago
What's really happening is that some people are trying to compare deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from the typical flu/pneumonia season. Nitpicking about what is or isn't the flu really doesn't matter, what matters (to m
632.
by xscott 7y ago
The point still holds to compare Covid vs flu+pneumonia then. This is some weird No True Scotsman argument you're making where it's not the "True Flu" if they had pneumonia as well... (likely getting pneumonia because o
633.
by xscott 7y ago
Or bleach.
634.
by xscott 7y ago
I'll give you that it isn't necessarily correct, but I don't know if it's sufficiently incorrect either :-)
635.
by xscott 7y ago
That model doesn't account for other countries not following the same (presumably strict) procedures. We aren't islands, and even if there is a short term suppression in your current country, it seems unlikely you're going t
636.
by xscott 7y ago
Do you know anywhere that is reporting stats on how many people are maimed by this?
637.
by xscott 7y ago
2017-2018 was a bad flu season at 61k US deaths. So, if this turns out to be 100k, it's not 5 times worse than that.
638.
by xscott 7y ago
I keep checking back too... One way or another, we'll see.
639.
by xscott 7y ago
I would wear a mask I bought from a reputable vendor. I would not wear a mask given out on the street by someone I never met. Maybe it's a matter of trust and not attitude or education.
640.
by xscott 7y ago
> dead bodies [...] data should be generally more reliable Not to be too heartless towards sick people, but I think deaths is the only data that's really useful. In addition to reliability as you mention, I have no idea if "in
641.
by xscott 7y ago
I like this chart because it shows when various countries jumped off the trend, presumably heading towards recovery. But I agree, to be useful as a comparison it should be normalized by total population per country in addition to the testi
642.
by xscott 7y ago
I have no idea if you're right, but I'd be happy if fashion changed that way before all the facial identification cameras take over every public space. :-)
643.
by xscott 7y ago
Yup, I'm sorry about that.
644.
by xscott 7y ago
> Better to do as doubleunplussed explains Wow. His link is written like a blog post and cites Medium and Twitter for references. Either you didn't read it, or you've lost all credibility... I don't think we're goin
645.
by xscott 7y ago
I guess we'll know in 6-8 weeks.
646.
by xscott 7y ago
> If the choice is between locking down the country for a month ... There's something fishy there. If anything you're saying is true, one month can't possibly be enough. I'll skip the napkin math, but if your number
647.
by xscott 7y ago
I didn't suggest ignoring anything. Please quit putting words into my mouth, it's dishonest. I'm currently much more concerned about what will happen economically and politically because of this thing. There are real and aw
648.
by xscott 7y ago
That's a good catch, but I assumed he was just being sloppy in his terminology.
649.
by xscott 7y ago
Yeah, that "can" happen. Other things "can" also happen... If you've got a real prediction, why don't you say it? And you moved the goal posts from "deaths" to "infected". I'm not a
650.
by xscott 7y ago
No one asked you to ignore anything, and my goal is certainly not to reassure you. Very silly or not, I'm not making predictions - I'm just keeping track of a few of you who are. Are you predicting 2 million Americans dead from C
651.
by xscott 7y ago
My post above just stated the facts as they are today or a couple years ago, with citations and uncertainty ranges. Do you have a strong prediction for the future with a date and count? I'm not sure what qualifies as "strict&quot
652.
by xscott 7y ago
Yes, exponential curves are scary. So are logistics curves. We should know in 21 days if your prediction is right.
653.
by xscott 7y ago
Let's compare apples to apples and stick to the US for a minute, which is what I believe the WSJ was doing. The winter of 2017-2018 was a bad flu year, and there were about 61,000 deaths from it in the US (uncertainty interval: 46K to
654.
by xscott 7y ago
The last time I tried, it didn't go well. When the AUR package for swift or swift-bin goes to 5.2, I'll probably try again. > If you're using Arch, I'm pretty sure AUR have you covered... Have you gotten it working w
655.
by xscott 7y ago
I know I'm out of fashion :-), but I don't really use containers for anything. I think Swift looks really nice, but when I check out other languages (such as Go, Rust, or any of the gazillion others), I don't have to jump th
656.
by xscott 7y ago
I'm currently using Arch, so I don't think the prebuilt Ubuntu ones are going to work.
657.
by xscott 7y ago
Has anyone had good luck getting Swift running on Linux? Many versions ago, I had it working under Ubuntu, and it seemed really nice. I particularly liked having a REPL for this style of language. However since then, I've had very li
658.
by xscott 7y ago
Most people list the registers in alphabetic order, but numerically they are encoded with the B registers in the 4th place: EAX=0, ECX=1, EDX=2, EBX=3, ... If you ever find yourself writing an AMD-64 assembler, it really feels like you&#x27
659.
by xscott 7y ago
You should continue watching then. My bet is 50/50 odds of either nothing happening, or one of the officers gets suspended with pay (free vacation).
660.
by xscott 7y ago
False is the identity element for Or, similar to how Zero is the identity element for addition. True is the identity element for And, similar to how One is the identity element for multiplication.

More ›