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That model doesn't account for other countries not following the same (presumably strict) procedures. We aren't islands, and even if there is a short term supp
by xscott 7y ago
That model doesn't account for other countries not following the same (presumably strict) procedures. We aren't islands, and even if there is a short term suppression in your current country, it seems unlikely you're going to quarantine every incoming flight (and its crew!) for 2 weeks per flight. I suspect any model that doesn't result in the majority of the population getting it eventually is probably wrong.
- eesmith 7y agoSure, but my point wasn't that the SIR Model is correct (elsewhere I wrote 'that's a highly simplified model, might not be true, etc., etc'), it was to show that dkarl's model - flattening the curve doesn't change the overall number of infected people - isn't necessarily correct.
- xscott 7y agoI'll give you that it isn't necessarily correct, but I don't know if it's sufficiently incorrect either :-)