xkjkls

53 ms·

631.
by xkjkls 8y ago
Square, a company with many years headstart, trades at a high multiple, and has many more integration points into commerce than WhatsApp does currently, trades at a market cap of $27 billion. Given that Facebook bought WhatsApp for $19 bill
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by xkjkls 8y ago
No, this has been going on for awhile now, especially when you look at the high profile defections of many of the original WhatsApp executives.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Apple is a luxury good. You also don't see Gucci or Prada or Moet-Chandon unhappy because they can't be purchased in the poorest areas of the world. Facebook has a different business model and a different mission than those compan
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Because they paid $19 billion for it and need some form of return on that investment? You can't just throw stockholder's equity around like that and then come up with a plan that maxes out at ~$1 billion a year in revenue.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
I wouldn't necessarily call it "lazy research". It's imperfect, but there aren't exactly that many natural experiments in UBI that provide you great data. Sometimes you have to piece together insights from imperfect
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Everything doesn't "pop" though. I agree that we should expect lower longterm returns over the next few years. However, the difference between the NASDAQ in 2000 and "we expect the average annual return on the S&P 50
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by xkjkls 8y ago
I mean, my house isn't backed by the full faith and credit of the US, but I'd still consider it a form of wealth. Pablo Escobar is about the only guy I know who kept all his money in cash.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
I agree that based on historical prices, a large number of assets appear to be at the high end of valuation, but I don't know if it is already correct to call that a "bubble". I prefer the Cliff Asness bubble definition, &quo
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by xkjkls 8y ago
I wonder if general research is really a great charitable investment either. Medicine seems the most obviously positive research initiative to fund, but looking at the last few decades of medical research, I don't see many discoveries
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by xkjkls 8y ago
That was quickly adjusted. I think like 3 years ago, Amazon publicly was saying that every day to AWS they were adding the same amount of computing power that was used to run Amazon.com when it was a $10 billion business. AWS is massively
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by xkjkls 8y ago
What is anything other than virtual money though?
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by xkjkls 8y ago
A bubble in what though? Amazon stock?
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Are universities really highly positive charitable investments in 2018? It's a very different time from when Carnegie existed.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
That's far from an Amazon problem. Olive oil fraud has been a thing since before Christ.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
I'm pretty sure the investors on Wall Street are far more sophisticated than just your "confidence".
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by xkjkls 8y ago
I'm pretty sure their grocery business has changed alot in the last 10 years, and will probably change even more with the integration of Whole Foods.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
They tried a travel site once; they tried to sell insurance once; they tried to make a phone once; etc. They fail a lot of the time, but sometimes even when they do, it's a kick in the ass to some of the other competitors in the field,
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by xkjkls 8y ago
That sounds shocking to me. Did you notify Amazon about that?
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by xkjkls 8y ago
It depends on what you mean by healthcare. There are many different supply chains in the industry and they are all regulated and managed slightly differently.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Possibly, CVS has a program which uses it's big discounts it gets on the drugs it sells in stores to sell them to employees for their health care needs: https://www.benefitnews.com/news/cvs-e-prescription-program-.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Knockoffs of what food? Like selling not organic produce as organic?
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Yeah, the penalties for selling fake insulin are muuuuuuuuuuuccccccchhh greater for distributors than selling a fake Gucci belt. Also the number of companies with licenses to sell regulated substances is pretty small making it really easy t
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by xkjkls 8y ago
It's by far the best because everyone is on it though -- that shouldn't be understated.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
WhatsApp had 55 employees not 5. And additional features are going to add massive complexity and decrease your ability to scale relatively quickly. Sure, with the right engineering you might be able to run a relatively light operation if yo
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Haha, that's great.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
There are a lot of reasons why a fast growing business like Instagram should be trading at higher multiples than Apple. Also the value in NeXT came from Steve Jobs, not NeXT itself.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
Yeah, but 7 engineers at that growth rate means your entire team is just going to be devoted to beating all of the scaling fires. That leaves little time for other product improvements that might enable more growth. FB was pretty slow to mo
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by xkjkls 8y ago
It really depends on where you live. Instagram and Facebook are still achieving substantial unabated growth in developing countries. In the US, usage for FB's main app has pulled back a little, though remains pretty high. The major dif
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by xkjkls 8y ago
> They seem to be seeking an escape from the news. I mean that's about as 2018 as it gets. I'm not entirely sure if that's a permanent trend though.
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by xkjkls 8y ago
I feel jealous of Sequoia VC's who managed to double their money in 4 days.

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