woeirua

23 ms·

361.
by woeirua 4y ago
If FRC goes under it will be because Janet Yellen put her foot in her mouth by saying that banks that are not too big to fail will not get a depositor guarantee.
362.
by woeirua 4y ago
I have to ask the obvious question, with GPT4 able to write code to solve the problem itself, why would I bother searching for existing code?
363.
by woeirua 4y ago
The just solution here is to let CS fail, and jail the executives if they find evidence of fraud or other crimes. Make the depositors and bond holders whole to prevent contagion.
364.
by woeirua 4y ago
It's only a matter of time now before someone uses GPT to directly control a humanoid like robot. I see no reason why you couldn't do that with some kind of translation layer that goes from text instructions like: "walk forwa
365.
by woeirua 4y ago
The fact that we’re even having this conversation should concern you. Move the goalposts if you want, but the rate of progress should concern you.
366.
by woeirua 4y ago
Two points: GPT4 is significantly better in this regard, and you should be concerned about the rate of progress more than it’s actual capabilities today.
367.
by woeirua 4y ago
The internet is already full of garbage. GPT like models will accelerate the process, but honestly this is for the best. There are historical precedents for this situation. When garbage permeates a medium of communication, there’s a flight
368.
by woeirua 4y ago
The people fretting about AI killing everyone are jumping the shark here. You should be much more worried about how most people are going to respond to their jobs evaporating in the next ten years, and the same thing happening to the next j
369.
by woeirua 4y ago
A programmer literally just translates human requirements to machine instructions. Nothing more. That sounds about as tedious and boring as a job can get. Why should we want to code anymore than people wanted to make welds on cars, or p
370.
by woeirua 4y ago
The only thing holding this back now is lack of enough context. That’s the big nut to crack. How do you hold enough information in memory at once?
371.
by woeirua 4y ago
The last page in the paper is really, really impressive. GPT4 does R&D. If you can't see how useful this would be once hooked up to the internet then you aren't paying attention: https://cdn.openai.com/papers&#
372.
by woeirua 4y ago
I think if you had asked someone what would qualify as AGI twenty years ago, then GPT4 would be hitting most of their milestones… The Star Trek computer is virtually assured by the end of the decade. All the components exist today in variou
373.
by woeirua 4y ago
It still blows my mind how many engineers are at Meta. What are they all doing? Seems pretty comfortable to say that they could lay off thousands more and probably notice no difference in the user experience or revenue of their products.
374.
by woeirua 4y ago
The Cloud. Not only is it costing companies an excessive amount of money but it’s only a matter of time before something happens that causes large parts of cloud providers to go offline for a significant amount of time. SVB collapsing was f
375.
by woeirua 4y ago
The good news is that the failure of SBNY is probably what convinced them to pull out the stops and make the FDIC guarantee unlimited. The bad news, is that if your bank fails this week you would get full coverage. If your bank fails next m
376.
by woeirua 4y ago
… which is why Signature Bank was also placed in receivership this weekend. The contagion was spreading, if they did nothing there would be runs on a number of banks tomorrow. There still may be runs tomorrow.
377.
by woeirua 4y ago
Good analysis. Everyone should be very worried about these charts. In short, a lot of banks are sitting on assets that have significant unrealized losses, which is very similar to the situation leading up to 2008. If there is some event dow
378.
by woeirua 4y ago
This whole incident should disabuse anyone from believing that VC money is “smart money”.
379.
by woeirua 4y ago
On the one hand this does provide some clarity. On the other hand it also reeks of “this is why this could never happen at JPM.”
380.
by woeirua 4y ago
I agree that its unlikely that SVB can call in the loans at any moment. The bigger issue is that the loans that they made are not properly collateralized because SVB accepted startup equity as the collateral. After all, startups and their f
381.
by woeirua 4y ago
USDC has already depegged. Game over for USDC. We won't know what happens in the real world until next week, but this weekend is going to be interesting for crypto. Bets on which crypto exchange is going to shutter next?
382.
by woeirua 4y ago
Not really... If the executives make terrible decisions then they'll still drive their institution to receivership which means they'll lose their jobs, and the stockholders will lose everything. Maybe an acceptable compromise wou
383.
by woeirua 4y ago
FDIC should just offer unlimited insurance for depositors. Bank runs are relatively rare events during normal times, so the current fee structure can support handling those instances. During a systemic crisis, the taxpayers have to backst
384.
by woeirua 4y ago
There’s definitely going to be some major fallout from this. I don’t think SVB will be bought, and depositors certainly are not going to be made whole anytime soon. Why? Well check out SVBs most recent 10-Q. Everyone knows they had $90B in
385.
by woeirua 4y ago
For those saying that depositors will probably only take a small haircut, it’s all going to come down to the recoverable value of SVBs outstanding loans. 40% of their assets were loans made to startups, their founders, etc. The value of tho
386.
by woeirua 4y ago
This is the real question. How much are those MBS worth on the open market? Their value decreases every day as the fed keeps raising rates. I don't think anyone can really say what kind of hole SVB might be in right now.
387.
by woeirua 4y ago
No one is going to make these loans until they have some idea what the underlying assets might be worth.
388.
by woeirua 4y ago
No one knows for sure. We don't know what the value of their HTM MBS actually is on the open market. What we do know for sure though, is that this process will take months, maybe years, to play out and many startups will run out of mon
389.
by woeirua 4y ago
LMAO. Can't even believe how many people were confidently asserting that nothing was wrong yesterday. If you had more than $250k in SVB yesterday you probably just took a huge haircut. Hundreds of startups will become illiquid as a r
390.
by woeirua 4y ago
We can have an AI "winter" without actually having a solid freeze in terms of development if expectations fail to match the reality. Right now, the hype around ChatGPT is unwarranted in my opinion, and if nothing else comes from i

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