3 ms·
I agree that its unlikely that SVB can call in the loans at any moment. The bigger issue is that the loans that they made are not properly collateralized becau
by woeirua 4y ago
I agree that its unlikely that SVB can call in the loans at any moment.
The bigger issue is that the loans that they made are not properly collateralized because SVB accepted startup equity as the collateral. After all, startups and their founders typically don't have a ton of assets to offer up as collateral on loans at the beginning. If the startups are unable to operate because they no longer have access to their funds, then the value of that collateral is unknowable and the borrower has limited (if any) ability to make regular payments. That would mean that any institution interested in purchasing the loans from SVB would have to go through on a case-by-case basis to assess the true risk associated with each loan. IMO, that makes it very unlikely that we'll see a major institution step in over the weekend. Over time, perhaps those loans will eventually make it to stronger banks, but it will take time, that many startups don't have.
- bhawks 4y agoIf the startup has no operating cash the equity collateral has a known value of 0. Buying SVBs loans make no sense unless SVBs customer liabilities (eg tech deposits) are guaranteed. I think we will see fed and regulators coordinate a shotgun wedding between SVB and one or several TBTF banks to stem contagion by Monday if not sooner. If not - tech (and the wider market) will be in existential crisis.