verteu

9 ms·

121.
by verteu 1y ago
From my cursory analysis, "# of new housing units authorized" is by far the strongest predictor of rent & home values decreasing: https://i.imgur.com/BMsPrKY.png (r^2 = 0.47, P-value 0.000) Nothing else (&quot
122.
by verteu 1y ago
Well, many people are on all the programs, and 2/3rds of Americans get no government assistance. Thus, any UBI that doesn't cut the poorest people's benefits would cost 3x the current amount. I don't think a 200% tax hik
123.
by verteu 1y ago
Ballpark numbers: About 1/3 of Americans get government assistance, and typical administrative costs are 1-10% of the program. Making these benefits universal would require spending 200% more, and save at most 10% in overhead. Thus, op
124.
by verteu 1y ago
> If you put together all of the money we spend for all of that, I wouldn't be surprised if 90%, or even 100% of the cost of a UBI could be covered. Administrative overhead is nowhere near as high as you estimate. SNAP covers ~12% o
125.
by verteu 1y ago
VXUS is a reasonable choice given those concerns.
126.
by verteu 1y ago
> Their actions are what you'd expect any firm to do to hedge their exposure No, their actions were the opposite. They were pushing the price in the same direction as their derivatives holding. A hedge would push it in the opposite
127.
by verteu 1y ago
> Most of your other "big" car companies are also experiencing down-trending sales. But they're priced at P/E of 7, while TSLA is P/E of 170. Negative growth at 170 P/E is... Much, much worse than negative g
128.
by verteu 1y ago
The Supreme Court explicitly rejected this reasoning in Plyler v. Doe (1982). > This Court's prior cases... cannot be distinguished on the asserted ground that persons who have entered the country illegally are not "within the
129.
by verteu 1y ago
This is false, per US v. Wong Kim Ark, and the attempt to reinterpret "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" was shot down by courts in Plyler v Doe.
130.
by verteu 1y ago
> the tax is still proportional to revenue, which for many early stage startups is small, and should be growing rapidly enough that the marginal investment in your meager R&D team is worth it This may hold true for "moonshot&quo
131.
by verteu 1y ago
https://youtu.be/G4vP4GdHhoA?si=Tp890ELXvAfBp4cz&t=252
132.
by verteu 1y ago
For reference, CAGR from 1926 to today: Milk: 2.5% (*low-quality data) CPI: 2.9% Copper: 3.4% Gold: 5.2%
133.
by verteu 1y ago
No, it looks like they are both getting worse and underperforming the nation: https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/subject/publications/s...
134.
by verteu 1y ago
Though a far cry from steroids & doping, DeflateGate was found NOT to be explainable by the ideal gas law. https://web.archive.org/web/20191107043435/https://static.nf... "we have concluded that
135.
by verteu 2y ago
It's proportional to weight, so I imagine bicycles are negligible.
136.
by verteu 2y ago
I'm guessing a few weeks of higher prices will change consumers' minds.
137.
by verteu 2y ago
Exactly - Current thinking is we are headed for recession: https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025 https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
138.
by verteu 2y ago
You are correct -- the (bid,ask) price can change with no trades taking place. GP is hinting at a common fallacy -- I call it the "strong hands fallacy." It's common in crypto: "Every time the price of $fartcoin goes dow
139.
by verteu 2y ago
There was widespread institutional selling, and typically dip buyers are non-professional traders who underperform the market [1] [2] At the end of the day, does it really matter who's the marginal buyer and who's the marginal sel
140.
by verteu 2y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tariff_ra... > The European Commission says it charges an average tariff of just 1% on US products entering the EU market, "considering the actual trade in goo
141.
by verteu 2y ago
> I will never know why the rich ( north of 10 million in the US) feel a need to keep working though. Start a band, travel, etc. I suspect it's selection bias: Non-workaholics rarely build vast wealth.
142.
by verteu 2y ago
And https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37556870/
143.
by verteu 2y ago
If managing clients' shares gives them such colossal power, how come the founder of Vanguard was worth less than the founder of In-N-Out Burger?
144.
by verteu 2y ago
Nuclear Phynance was one, but it's dead now.
145.
by verteu 2y ago
> They cut and pasted answers from a different question No, the transcript you pasted shows it's part of her answer from the same question.
146.
by verteu 2y ago
Asset managers do not control the news. Jack Bogle died with a net worth of $80mm. He was not even powerful enough to afford a top-tier penthouse in Manhattan, let alone control the media.
147.
by verteu 2y ago
See also: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...
148.
by verteu 2y ago
It doesn't seem like the law worked very well. Overdoses went up, and while this was largely due to covid & fent trends, it certainly was not an obvious success: https://imgur.com/a/45WAB6F https://
149.
by verteu 2y ago
I think the core problem is that administration would not allow you to do this. > What am I supposed to do? Keep standards high and fail them all? That’s not an option for untenured faculty who would like to keep their jobs.
150.
by verteu 2y ago
Seems to cause problems at lower levels than that: > The NTP monograph concluded, with moderate confidence, that higher levels of fluoride exposure, such as drinking water containing more than 1.5 milligrams of fluoride per liter, are as

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