4 ms·
From my cursory analysis, "# of new housing units authorized" is by far the strongest predictor of rent & home values decreasing: https://i.imgur.com/BMsPrKY.pn
by verteu 1y ago
From my cursory analysis, "# of new housing units authorized" is by far the strongest predictor of rent & home values decreasing: https://i.imgur.com/BMsPrKY.png https://i.imgur.com/BMsPrKY.png (r^2 = 0.47, P-value 0.000)
Nothing else ("% of housing owned by investors"?) is even close.
edit: Yes, obviously I included a time lag (3 years).
[1] https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-most-in-new-housing https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-m...
[2] eg, https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/#/ https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/#/
- rconti 1y agoThat's surprising to me, given the lag time between authorization and completion, and the dynamic of people moving into a given area vs moving out.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- klipt 1y agoHypothesis: investors rent out their investment housing (to make a profit) so it doesn't really reduce housing supply, it just shifts supply from owned to rented.
- tristan957 1y agoIt reduces supply for people who exclusively want to own. I'm not going to tell people what is the better financial decision for them, but there is a segment of society that wants to own a home regardless of whether renting is more financially beneficial.
- rconti 1y agoYeah, and it will depend a lot on the regulatory structure in the local environment, plus national things like interest rates. With prop 13 locking in below-market taxes, you'd have to be crazy to sell property in CA. With a different structure, you'd have to be crazy to keep it!