5 ms·
> The latest on the COVID-19 R0 is a median of 5.7 Pet peeve of mine: R0 is not a property of a virus; it's a property of a virus in a certain environment. 5.7
by usaar333 7y ago
> The latest on the COVID-19 R0 is a median of 5.7
Pet peeve of mine: R0 is not a property of a virus; it's a property of a virus in a certain environment. 5.7 is the estimate for covid-19 in Wuhan, a dense environment. It is nowhere close to that in the vast majority of the United States -- estimates are <3 in say Seattle or Norcal.
> Antibody testing appears to be showing infection rates are a lot higher than previously thought as well.
> 2) "it might not be as dangerous as we thought".
The more reliable ones are about what we did think on both points, at least for those who rely on Imperial College's models (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...)
> "there's no way to stop it"
Contact tracing is enough to keep r < 1. If we keep this thing at under 20 cases/million/day for the next few years until there's a vaccine, I think we can go about our lives.