ulmus

4 ms·

1. 1.▲
   by ulmus 10y ago

   I respectfully disagree. I claim the probability of human existence could have been less than 1, just as the probability of heads when tossing a fair coin is less than one, even when heads is observed as an outcome. We simply can't obs
2. 2.▲
   by ulmus 10y ago

   Pardon me, but I'm not sure what you mean by quantity of interest. If the quantity of interest can always be re-cast as a value which is necessarily 1, isn't "quantity of interest" the same for all probability problems?
3. 3.▲
   by ulmus 10y ago

   In estimating a probability for the occurrence of life in the universe, the authors essentially claim to know the probability of their own existence. For me, that's a red flag. I can't know the probability of a phenomenon which my