tmh79

9 ms·

31.
by tmh79 7y ago
the issue is the reference frame. We are building a lot relative to 2009 to 2013, but that time period was a historic aboslute low point in new housing starts, the "boom" that were in now has less new housing production that the m
32.
by tmh79 7y ago
moving 4 million people here would create the money to allow the infra changes
33.
by tmh79 7y ago
I do a lot of housing policy activism outside my daily work in tech and I entirely disagree with you. On a large scale, real estate associations and "landlord" associations are an incredibly influential lobbying coalition in the s
34.
by tmh79 7y ago
There is a natural population growth in the bay area from people having and raising children here. Our housing growth rate is slower than the rate of children coming of age. The unoccupied units that current residents are moving into can th
35.
by tmh79 7y ago
"What proof do you have for that?" rural areas are depopulating and cities/metropolitan areas are rising in both population and inflation adjusted real estate prices, both in the US and around the world. Say you have 2 option
36.
by tmh79 7y ago
yea, I mean there have been large periods in human history in which land was not bought and sold. Many indigenous cultures don't have a strong concept of land ownership. In many modern socialist countries (Singapore, china), you cannot
37.
by tmh79 7y ago
To clarify, the issue is that in the 60's, both cities had much looser zoning and allowed dense housing development. Policy changes in the late 60s and early 70s tightened the zoning/reduced a cities ability to create dense housi
38.
by tmh79 7y ago
You're speaking past each other. In marxist economics literature "commodification" means something is able to be bought and sold, not that it is a commodity in the broader ecconomic sense (an undifferentiated good with broadl
39.
by tmh79 7y ago
The reason we have a housing crises is because people want high density living. Our market crises is a literal refutation of your proposed solution.
40.
by tmh79 7y ago
If you look at the data for SF, 95% of brand new units are first occupied by people who have lived here for a at least a few years. New housing serves people who are already here. What causes people to migrate to the bay is the office creat
41.
by tmh79 7y ago
Yea... there are way more than 20k units needed in the bay area (all 9 countie), its closer to 1m. You need to account for the huge amount of office space growth in the past 15 years and the next 10 years, as well as our historical trend of
42.
by tmh79 7y ago
In california, landlords largely did get us into this mess though. Like not on an individual scale, but as an organized political constituency they lobbied for the policies that have caused the problems we're experiencing and they&#x27
43.
by tmh79 7y ago
a lot of the markets they operate in have had large recessions that they have done well in (IE Brazil). Operating theory is that on the margin, (for riders) people decide to own cars less and use alternatives more as cars are expensive and
44.
by tmh79 7y ago
RE: eats incentive spend. Its a cash bonfire with Doordash and UE competing domestically, and a lot of other softbank funded delivery groups including uber eats competing in south america. It seems like that late stage financing has dried u
45.
by tmh79 7y ago
Forecasting EBITDA profitability by Q4 2020
46.
by tmh79 7y ago
Deplatforming totally works, it quarantines the toxic people/ideas and doesn't allow them to spread further. Its fine if they move to voat or whatever, voat has orders of magnitude less people who use it casually, so there is a mu
47.
by tmh79 7y ago
Strong disagree, the solution to affordable housing includes a very large amount of private/free market housing, but the free market won't really address the needs of people below 30% of the median income. Additionally, good affo
48.
by tmh79 7y ago
White people didn't leave cities because of the threat of nuclear attacks, they left because there was an incredible amount of racial unrest, violence, and rioting. There is a lot of research on the issue [0]. Climate change is a much
49.
by tmh79 7y ago
Senior citizens in the other 49 states are doing just fine. There are problems with increasing property taxes on elderly folks on fixed incomes, the solution isn't to say "you never own any tax on the appreciated value" the s
50.
by tmh79 7y ago
"building new housing doesn't really drive the prices down" there is a lot of empirical evidence against this claim, and almost no evidence for it. Rising costs in cities are due to a few factors: (1) lack of new housing, (2)
51.
by tmh79 7y ago
They have seen a "boom" relative to 2009-2012 when literally zero new housing was built, they have not seen a boom relative to 1900 - 2009, especially when accounting for business cycle. I understand that you are seeing what you
52.
by tmh79 7y ago
NY has not been putting up housing at an insane rate. Housing in NY is actually being constructed at one of the lowest rates in the last century. Adjusted for business cycles (we're in a peak now), NY is building less housing than they
53.
by tmh79 7y ago
to be fair, there are very few residency spots in the bay area in any specialty anyway. My wife went through the residency match program last year and the bay area programs are ultra competitive because it is a desireable place to live. Add
54.
by tmh79 7y ago
> There's no good reason for homeless shelters and other charitable services to be located on extremely valuable real estate and in NIMBY neighborhoods There are tons of good reasons. The primary reason is that "place" is
55.
by tmh79 7y ago
> there are doctors making $500k/year living paycheck to paycheck This isn't true, at least in any sense of the word we would agree with. (Wife works in medicine, is a doctor at this level, we run in these circles). They are &q
56.
by tmh79 7y ago
> As to the men being jerks/toxic etc argument... I think its a lot more complicated than this. Yes, men and women can be jerks. The bigger issues seem to be when a team is 80%+ one gender or another, and the issues aren't abou
57.
by tmh79 7y ago
> Rowhouses are de facto banned almost everywhere in US? They are de facto banned though. ~99% of all land in urban and suburban areas has FAR requirements and setback requirements that make it impossible to build a new rowhouse.
58.
by tmh79 7y ago
I mean, I am not an industry shill, but I also believe that modern zoning and building codes (not the safety codes, but things like parking) make the kind of places that I would enjoy living "illegal to build today". There are a l
59.
by tmh79 7y ago
I have some VC friends tangentially related to the deal. Apparently the original demo was wild, like real magic bonkers. Everyone who tried became a believer. The projected light streams onto the user's eyes so instead of seeing an ima
60.
by tmh79 7y ago
"Doctors" are an enormous field of work. Are you talking about primary care physicians, which are widely being augmented/replaced by nurse practitioners? Are you talking about specialists who are able to work out treatments p

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