timr

18 ms·

361.
by timr 8mo ago
> It won't convince me because I HAVE BEEN USING IT, and IT HAS ACTUALLY MADE A BIG DIFFERENCE. I'm not going to defend a piece where the author contradicts the (clickbait) title in the body of the text, but he does actually s
362.
by timr 8mo ago
Go look at the graphs again. The “split by age” graph shows an increase in diagnosis of ~60%, but an increase in mortality of only ~10%. That’s not a small difference, and we aren’t that good at curing colon cancer. GP’s hypothesis is
363.
by timr 8mo ago
> DMCA is under penalty of perjury, so false take downs are rare. Maybe true with the platonic ideal "DMCA takedown letter" (though these are rarely litigated, so who really knows), but as you note, they're incredibly com
364.
by timr 8mo ago
Another, related issue is that the takedown mechanism becomes a de facto censorship mechanism, as anyone who has dealt with DMCA takedowns and automated detectors can tell you. Someone reports something for Special Pleading X, and you (th
365.
by timr 8mo ago
> Sometimes I feel like this is taken to the extreme for non-scientists that say that lack of evidence is in itself evidence. But of course, the lack of evidence is itself evidence, if you have a sufficiently large data sample and have
366.
by timr 8mo ago
It's also really damned hard to come up with an interesting, novel question, that is testable, with resources available to the average school child, in a reasonable amount of time. Allowing engineering opens up the workable space by qu
367.
by timr 8mo ago
LLMs are the eternal September for software, in that the sort of people who couldn’t make it through a bootcamp can now be “programming thought leaders”. There’s no longer a reliable way to filter signal from noise. Those 3000 early adopter
368.
by timr 8mo ago
I mean, it's definitely not perfect, but consider that Claude is a 200k window (unless you're a beta user with access to more), and it's not the tragedy that you're making it out to be. My experience is that the models a
369.
by timr 8mo ago
> Have you used the frontier models recently? Yes. > It's hard to communicate the difference the last 6 months has seen. No, it isn't. The hypebeast discovered Claude code, but hasn't yet realized that the "let the
370.
by timr 9mo ago
Copilot is basically the same today as when I signed up for the beta. It’s a coding app.
371.
by timr 9mo ago
I mean, sure. But aside from the fact that everything in AI gets reduced to a single word ("Gemini", "ChatGPT", "Claude") [1], it's clearly not an excuse for misrepresenting the functionality of the prod
372.
by timr 9mo ago
That's silly. Gmail is a wildly different product than it was when it launched, but I guess it doesn't count since the name is the same? Microsoft may or may not have a "problem" with naming, but if you're going to
373.
by timr 9mo ago
Seems like there's another option.
374.
by timr 9mo ago
Only if the naming confusion kept them from actually bothering to understand what the product is?
375.
by timr 9mo ago
> There is Github Copilot, the coding autocomplete tool. No, there is Github Copilot, the AI agent tool that also has autocomplete, and a chat UI. I understand your point about naming, but it's always helpful to know what the produc
376.
by timr 9mo ago
If it makes you feel any better, the problem you’re describing is as old as peer review. The authors of a paper only have to get accepted once, and they have a lot more incentive to do so than you do to reject their work as an editor or rev
377.
by timr 9mo ago
Please don't lazily conclude that he's gone crazy because it doesn't align with your prior beliefs. His work on Covid was just as rigorous as anything else he's done, but it's been unfairly villainized by the politi
378.
A flawed paper in management science has been cited more than 6k times(statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu)
715 points by timr 9mo ago|374 comments
379.
by timr 9mo ago
Go watch or listen to Plenary Session, and you'll have direct access to his thoughts. My ability to rehash Prasad's arguments doesn't have any bearing on what I wrote.
380.
by timr 9mo ago
Vinay Prasad is an oncologist who made his career calling out many of the FDA’s brazenly stupid oncology drug approvals, so I am shocked - shocked! - that the creator of that process would be unhappy with his leadership. “Foxes agree th
381.
by timr 9mo ago
> Right, my bad... it's not directly the CO2 but the effects of CO2 on climate that is restricting plant growth overall [0]. The net effect is the same. The net effect is not the same. The net effect is that the earth has been get
382.
by timr 9mo ago
> Do you have a link to the final report? AR6, Working group 1 report, chapter 2. Relevant section starts at page 365: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6... The conclusi
383.
by timr 9mo ago
> At the levels of concentration of CO2 we’re seeing, plants are decreasing in size. Trees grow smaller. No, they don't. Not due to CO2, anyway (maybe temperature, or changes in precipitation for particular plants). Even if you want
384.
by timr 9mo ago
The world will be greener in a high-CO2 environment. There’s no legitimate argument over that fact. Where you go wrong is in misrepresenting the argument as “more plants and food”. That’s a straw man. Certainly it’s more favorable for g
385.
by timr 9mo ago
Yep. I almost edited my comment to include that one as well! "Insane", indeed. As you note, the tire-kickers were the worst -- people who forked the Linux kernel (with no additional commits) trying to process the entire repo on a
386.
by timr 9mo ago
I never personally wanted Tailwind as a product, but really feel for them when I see comments like this one [1]: > Here's a friendly tip for the Tailwind team that you should already know, but I will repeat anyways: If your goal is
387.
by timr 10mo ago
It's your body, and you can do whatever you want (assuming someone will consent to give it to you), but the worst case is that you have a bad reaction. It's rare, but not impossible, and things like GBS do happen -- though it mu
388.
by timr 10mo ago
That’s definitely true, but if you look at the RCT data, there’s also a question of efficacy in older recipients. For whatever reason the vaccine just doesn’t seem to work as well when administered to adults, even if they’re naive to the vi
389.
by timr 10mo ago
> The situation is pretty clear when you're a woman who got cancer from her boyfriend who knew he had HPV and didn't tell her You can make up “just so” stories to justify anything. The point is, the story you’re telling isn’t l
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by timr 10mo ago
It’s “like pulling teeth” because the guidance isn’t changing (at least not because of evidence). There seems to be a very motivated contingency who want to spin a story that male vaccination for HPV has benefits for women. The problems w

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