tim333

15 ms·

271.
by tim333 2mo ago
I see your point but there's been a Moore's law like trend in compute/dollar that's progressed steadily for about a century and has a very high probability of continuing. How that maps into AI products is a bit uncertain
272.
by tim333 2mo ago
I found the content quite interesting even if the writing style is a bit LLM. I just bought a GaN charger - I have a few, and am interested in the ongoing military strategic brilliance of the current admin.
273.
by tim333 2mo ago
I'm about to do an ebike train ebike journey (UK) and have to say it works rather well as a form of transport. You can work on the train and the ebike is fun, easy and has no parking problems.
274.
by tim333 2mo ago
His company also holds $31B worth. He seems to have quite a nuanced take that AI is a big deal but it's tricky to figure who will profit. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/warren-buffett-alphabet-...
275.
by tim333 2mo ago
I thought the Boyle vid was good. The thing about "hyping AI way beyond its capabilities" is that the future capabilities will no doubt be greater than the current ones so they may just be talking about the future a bit. There&#x2
276.
by tim333 2mo ago
This is true. It wouldn't surprise me to have a messy outcome like OpenAI goes bust, Google does well or some such.
277.
by tim333 2mo ago
It's kind of complicated to argue on the economic viability as the spending does seem a bit excessive but if you assume an industrial revolution kind of situation it can be justified, if you assume it's just another tech product t
278.
by tim333 2mo ago
>It’s a grift, “AGI will save us” ... goal post... It's not really like that, at least the fundamentals, not necessarily what Altman / Musk say. The significant point is when AI/robots can do what we do without us and impr
279.
by tim333 2mo ago
He's saying the demand is artificial because it's all from Anthropic and OpenAI but they have revenue from paying customers of about $74 bn and $49 bn annualized respectively. If those went under the customer demand would still pr
280.
by tim333 2mo ago
He doesn't have a finance background either and it's quite a job going through the 7482 words or whatever he's rattled off this week to analyse where he's gone wrong. His fundamental error I think, illustrated here http
281.
by tim333 2mo ago
And run by a ~23 year old who I don't think had managed money before. It's easy to screw up leveraged trading irrespective of the virtues of AI. The fund is still well up because approximately 25% of the fund’s assets were investe
282.
by tim333 2mo ago
You never quite know when something will come up over the far side of wherever you are.
283.
by tim333 2mo ago
My thought too - lots of people have cranky ideas. But they only get taken seriously if they get a Nobel or something like that.
284.
by tim333 2mo ago
That reminds me of saying the early Google was doomed because they put all their money into cheap pcs acting as servers - how long do those last? But the enduring value was Google dominating search which was worth billions/trillions, n
285.
by tim333 2mo ago
A lot of the problem is with the current commander in chief's not very good strategy. Iran is huge and populous and would be very expensive to occupy with boots on the ground so no one really wants to go there. Trump thought he could j
286.
by tim333 2mo ago
>fighting China would be a proper all-out war I figure it would probably be like the US backing Ukraine's defense against Russia but backing Taiwan's defense against China. It would probably be quite hard for China to take Taiw
287.
by tim333 2mo ago
Maybe inning 9 for LLMs, inning 3 for AI? Already the models have moved from language models to multi modal.
288.
by tim333 2mo ago
Related in other news: >[deepmind exec] said today’s enormous AI capital expenditures are not yet supported by current revenue, but argued that betting against the long-term trajectory of the technology would be a mistake. ... he noted t
289.
by tim333 2mo ago
I figure we're not far off explosive growth but it'll be very different from the industrial revolution. At the moment AI is handy but less capable than humans in many ways so you can't just swap it in for human workers. Befor
290.
by tim333 2mo ago
The Wozniak test has it with a robot body going into a house, finding a coffee maker and making a cup. I guess you can vary the rules as you like.
291.
by tim333 2mo ago
It's quite hard work to research why wrong. His always writing 10000 words doesn't help. I'd say he's over skeptical of AI being a real thing and he cherry picks the financials. (earlier comment from me with some details
292.
by tim333 2mo ago
Only reading the first sentence maybe?
293.
by tim333 2mo ago
It depends on your definition. For me it would have to be able to do the stuff humans can do like make a cup of coffee (Wozniak test). Just maths isn't really general enough for the G in AGI.
294.
by tim333 2mo ago
There's a lot of everyday stuff in physics which is unexplained like the particle masses we have.
295.
by tim333 2mo ago
I think you can talk about the soul but it's more complicated these days. Re: > immaterial aspect or essence of a living being. It is typically believed to be immortal and to exist apart from the material world that's all still
296.
by tim333 2mo ago
AI will fix it maybe. I for one welcome our coming AI zookeepers.
297.
by tim333 2mo ago
Should maybe rather than can?
298.
by tim333 2mo ago
I'm not quite sure of the definitions but with sentience I have >Subjective Experience: Involves raw sensory awareness rather than complex abstract thought On that current AI is a bit lacking as they don't have very good sensor
299.
by tim333 2mo ago
I got the same impression as Bubeck that the ‘scientific’ papers were a bit more like blog post saying this LLM got stuff wrong so LLMs can't reason, but as he says they can now do that so it's not an inherent limit of the technol
300.
by tim333 3mo ago
I agree a lot of the dooming is from people who don't really do the maths. Total capex so far is probably about $1T. Recent annual earnings are $132bn at Google, $101bn at msft, 60bn at Meta, $120bn nvda adding up to $413bn after tax.

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