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It's kind of complicated to argue on the economic viability as the spending does seem a bit excessive but if you assume an industrial revolution kind of situati
by tim333 2mo ago
It's kind of complicated to argue on the economic viability as the spending does seem a bit excessive but if you assume an industrial revolution kind of situation it can be justified, if you assume it's just another tech product to hype then it isn't and will all fall apart. I think Zitron is wrong on that but can't prove it as I can't see the future.
You can look as past quotes like "that sound you hear is the slow deflation of the bubble I've been warning you about since March" in July 2024 and say he was over pessimistic on the economics but it's hard to prove he still is.
There's a fundamental issue that in standard finance the present value of an investment is the discounted value of the future cash flows which are hard to estimate with a developing tech like AI but Ed I guess thinks they'll be low and optimists high. I'm not sure he'd even be up on the concept of discounted future cash flows.
If you look at the other end of financial knowledge with Warren Buffett, he's bought in, in spite of not being a tech enthusiast, through buying shares in Google. https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/buffett-says-ai-giants-playing-191941504.html https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/buffett-say...
- surgical_fire 2mo agoIt's difficult to trust the viability of this when the amount of money that it needs to generate as revenue is in the "several trillions" ballpark just for "break-even". If you assume that this will be "industrial revolution" situation... maybe? It doesn't help if this happy scenario takes 30 years to materialize. The money needs to be there by sometime in the next few years. Also, every risky bet has a happy scenario that if successful, all the gamblers become gorillionaires. In the happy scenario, every GME hodler would have wife-changing money by now, with their shares in Gamestop worth infinite dollars.
- tim333 2mo agoThis is true. It wouldn't surprise me to have a messy outcome like OpenAI goes bust, Google does well or some such.