tfehring

18 ms·

181.
Inflation Explainer(johnhcochrane.blogspot.com)
3 points by tfehring 4y ago|0 comments
182.
by tfehring 4y ago
Looking at this further, I think both I and the author of the posted tweet both initially misinterpreted what these graphs represent. The horizontal axis is the date at which the forecast (or nowcast) was made. The Atlanta Fed made estimate
183.
by tfehring 4y ago
Looks like it was removed on July 29 when rolling forward from Q2 to Q3. Live site: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Latest archived version at the time of this writing: https://web.archi
184.
by tfehring 4y ago
Founders generally do give themselves options instead of shares for tax purposes. The reason investors get shares directly is that they’re buying them, not earning them as income. There are plenty of ways to screw over unsophisticated minor
185.
by tfehring 4y ago
For private unicorns I think the answer is no, I've seen plenty of good people join companies that are perceived to be likely to IPO soon. There's plenty of shady stuff that can still happen in late-stage startups, but I think the
186.
by tfehring 4y ago
The issue is the principal-agent conflict that cash-out opportunities create. The executives have a fiduciary duty to shareholders, including their employees. Cashing out not only reduces the alignment of incentives between executives and s
187.
by tfehring 4y ago
The fastest-growing (and largest) category of that debt was mortgage debt, which is probably a positive economic indicator if anything, though note that that's based on Q1 data. Household debt servicing costs as a percent of disposable
188.
by tfehring 4y ago
Because for better or worse, while some other countries have purely formulaic recession criteria, the US doesn't. This can swing either way - the US never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth during the 2001
189.
by tfehring 4y ago
I think it's useful to distinguish the behavior of FAANG [0] as a collective vs. any individual FAANG company. FAANG as a collective almost exclusively hires recent college grads, who work there until retirement [1]. Any individual FAA
190.
by tfehring 4y ago
Lots of insurtechs - including Root, Lemonade, Policygenius, Next, and Vouch, just off the top of my head - have had layoffs this year. Insurtech is a really broad field, and the unit economics vary wildly depending on where in the value ch
191.
by tfehring 4y ago
I went from a life insurance company in the Midwest to a pretty desirable tech company in the last few years. This tweet [0] from patio11 (linked from the posted tweet) basically sums up my path: > If you’re early career, try to get int
192.
by tfehring 4y ago
> a general description of any bonuses, commissions, or other compensation By my reading, that just means that they have to disclose that equity compensation is available, not the amount of that equity compensation. Contrast that with
193.
by tfehring 4y ago
It functions like a tax in that it decreases the net amount that you receive for working (more). If you lose 40 cents' worth of benefits for every additional dollar that you earn, it doesn't matter that your "real" margi
194.
by tfehring 4y ago
In the US, low- and lower-middle-class income households often do face very high effective marginal tax rates - sometimes north of 60% - due to the combination of direct taxes and benefit cliffs and phase-outs. State income taxes and benefi
195.
by tfehring 4y ago
For reference, the slower speed seems to be around 1500 MB/s read and write, compared to 3000 MB/s read speeds for the M1 MBP [0]. While there are definitely applications that would benefit from the extra speed, I wouldn't ca
196.
by tfehring 4y ago
The opportunity cost of 2% credit card rewards isn't a rate, but you can convert it to a rate by dividing by the time period. If you forego $200 in rewards to keep $10k for an extra 3 months, you're paying $67 or 0.67% per month f
197.
by tfehring 4y ago
It’s still useful to convert to an annualized interest rate even if your “investment” period is less than a year, because annualized returns are the standard unit of measurement for investment returns. For example, if you’re debating whethe
198.
by tfehring 4y ago
They’re free but there’s an opportunity cost - by using BNPL you forego 2% or whatever in credit card rewards, so you’re effectively paying ~8% annualized for a 3-month term. My understanding is that the BNPL providers are effectively payin
199.
by tfehring 4y ago
It’s a 30% to 40% decrease in the growth though, not the level. Meta’s headcount will be growing from ~75k to ~81k this year, instead of growing to ~85k. The scenario you’re describing would be more like if Meta’s headcount were dropping fr
200.
by tfehring 4y ago
> The liabilities of the insurer are typically fixed amounts regardless of investment performance or changes in mortality. If and when the insurer miscalculates they will be wiped out if their assets don't match their liabilities.
201.
by tfehring 4y ago
Yes, they generally get wiped out by inflation. You can get annuities whose payments increase by a fixed amount every year, or that increase based on the performance of the S&P 500 or whatever, but AFAIK you can't get an annuity wi
202.
by tfehring 4y ago
I guess I don't understand what you mean when you say "tontines have no liabilities." Mechanically, the way that a tontine works (or at least the way that they worked historically) is that I give you a fixed amount of money t
203.
by tfehring 4y ago
Yes, there’s no reason for the expected total value of your payments to inherently be higher or lower for a tontine vs an annuity, after adjusting for time value of money. Typically a tontine would have lower payments in early years with m
204.
by tfehring 4y ago
I used to price annuities (but no longer have any affiliation or financial interest in the industry) and this isn’t true IME - annuities are typically priced using best-estimate mortality rates. Outside of immediate annuities, which are a p
205.
by tfehring 4y ago
Related article and HN discussion from last year: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28855330
206.
by tfehring 4y ago
> Honestly, I think most startups are betting that employees don’t know any better. Yeah, that's probably accurate. For whatever reason, many seem to view equity as a "check the box" formality rather than a material part
207.
by tfehring 4y ago
Even without getting into the magnitude of the difference, and just talking about the direction, I think a lot of folks at private startups expect external candidates to value $1 of their stock (based on their last 409a) more than $1 of sto
208.
by tfehring 4y ago
I like this syntax better than the new lambda syntax, but I think it's good that a proper lambda syntax exists now. Not all higher-order functions accept formulas (they have to wrap their function arguments with rlang::as_function or e
209.
by tfehring 4y ago
I think it's pretty unlikely that Google is getting a bad deal on its group life insurance relative to the expected value of benefits. Yeah, younger people are cross-subsidizing premiums for older coworkers - it's arguably a dumb
210.
PyMC 4.0 released with support for Jax backend(pymc.io)
2 points by tfehring 4y ago|0 comments

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