scoofy

41 ms·

811.
by scoofy 1y ago
I don’t think any collapse is coming. I just think the risk profile doesn’t justify many of my smaller cap investments, and where I am in life.
812.
by scoofy 1y ago
I mean, WSB isn’t a serious place, but they have their moments. I just have no idea who would or even could “pump” the entire S&P 500. My best theory of the last month is just basic “sell in May and go away” theory where you get rosie
813.
by scoofy 1y ago
Right, but that implies that spending is controlled by revenues… when it’s clearly not. That just means higher deficits, threatening a default of US Bonds, which is a worst case scenario for American prosperity.
814.
by scoofy 1y ago
Right, except that’s self-defeating and won’t work. The idea that we can plausibly generate enough revenue from tariffs to replace the income tax is inherently self-defeating, because if the tariffs work at bringing back manufacturing, we’l
815.
by scoofy 1y ago
Not OP, but it's clear that slow, low, scheduled tariffs are how you move manufacturing. When a business say, hmm... in 5 years, we're going to be unprofitable, we should probably invest in an American fab. This is also why you
816.
by scoofy 1y ago
I actually moved a bunch of money around after the recovery from April 2nd. I just sat their thinking... wow, short term bonds have a really decent interest rate, and I don't think people are taking seriously the fact that the markets
817.
by scoofy 1y ago
More feel good propaganda. Let’s blaming Exxon shareholders for the consequences of most people deciding they shouldn’t be the one who rides an ebike to work. That burger you had for lunch is really McDonald’s fault… for selling burgers ins
818.
by scoofy 1y ago
The entire point of the expression is that many people will do things they shouldn't do if they are given an easy opportunity. The idea is that shame is ultimately what keeps most people in line. The vast majority of people won't
819.
by scoofy 1y ago
>I doubt banning Monero or Zcash would prevent criminals from tax evasion. They'll find other ways. So, as often happens, "Locks keep honest people honest". You realize that "locks keep honest people honest" is a
820.
by scoofy 1y ago
One of the things I feel like is surreal when I'm using an AI chat bot is that it never tells me to leave it alone and stop responding. It's the strangest thing, you could be as big of a jerk, and it'll play back it you in wh
821.
by scoofy 1y ago
Not if we build trains and walkable neighborhoods.
822.
by scoofy 2y ago
Yay!
823.
by scoofy 2y ago
I'm not arguing that consciousness is and illusion. I'm only arguing that it is possible that it could be an illusion. It's probably not, and if it were, it wouldn't matter. I'm just saying it's possible.
824.
by scoofy 2y ago
The implementation matters.
825.
by scoofy 2y ago
Ultimately it doesn’t matter if it’s reasonable. If it were true, life would be absurd. So, philosophically, we can assume it’s untrue because the alternative means being wrong about it doesn’t matter.
826.
by scoofy 2y ago
> Consciousness is the only thing that can not possibly be an illusion. It can be. Suppose consciousness is a series of infinitesimal snapshots, where existence flickers for a moment and then disappears, with a new existence birthed in t
827.
by scoofy 2y ago
It doesn’t matter whether the cells actually change. The persistence of the self, and even consciousness itself, are very possibly an illusion.
828.
by scoofy 2y ago
>The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation
829.
by scoofy 2y ago
We can choose whichever axioms we want. There is still arguments over the axiom of choice, but nobody cares because it’s entirely helpful.
830.
by scoofy 2y ago
Thankfully the speed of light is slow enough to where that's not a huge concern... that is, unless the Nemesis hypotheses is actually a black hole and not a brown dwarf or planet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neme
831.
by scoofy 2y ago
My point is that axioms "feeling obvious" is exactly a signal that they will be useful. The point of deductive reasoning based on axioms is that it is a shortcut to fill in problems of induction, which is what happens when we use
832.
by scoofy 2y ago
They are, by definition. The reason why we choose them is exactly to map a deductive framework onto an inductive reality.
833.
by scoofy 2y ago
Just a note from your friendly philosophy degree holder: Axioms are arbitrary. Use the axioms that are the most useful.
834.
by scoofy 2y ago
I'm saying in general. Dark patterns in general get more ridiculous than most people can imagine.
835.
by scoofy 2y ago
I’ve literally experienced (not with Uber, probably around 2010): 1: Account 2: Cancel 3: Call this number. 4: Call number. 5: Welcome to Customer Service press… … …press 9 to cancel. 6: We need to confirm who you are. Give birth date, etc.
836.
by scoofy 2y ago
Why? I presume that people don’t look for second and third order effects. They see disproportionate numbers of people of color struggling, they blame the first order grouping as the cause. Statistics is complicated. People reject even strai
837.
by scoofy 2y ago
It means equal outcomes for arbitrary groups. We should expect fairly similar outcomes for groups based on arbitrary differences. If we don’t, it should concern us. Non-arbitrary issues should obviously affect outcomes, but the prevalence
838.
by scoofy 2y ago
>There are already significant class divides in the community. Our system specifically encourages that sort of thing. The idea that a few high performers get the same benefits (ones that aren’t already means tested) as the poorest is irr
839.
by scoofy 2y ago
>Because racism is ongoing and negatively impacts people of color, it makes sense to focus where harm is being done. My point is that there are plenty of -isms going around and focusing on race alone completely ignores the fact that ou
840.
by scoofy 2y ago
I didn't downvote, but I gave a long, good faith response as to why I think it's sub-optimal reasoning at best. I think this divide is a huge problem for the left, and it's actually creating new problems while the left pats i

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