sanderjd

6 ms·

91.
by sanderjd 2mo ago
This reminds me a lot of the tension the I felt when I was first coming of age as a young adult in the late 00s. At that point, it wasn't grunge, it was hipsters. But I always felt like: How can hipsters be hip and counterculture and a
92.
by sanderjd 2mo ago
Yeah I tend to agree. What is the thesis here? Is it that being indie and not selling out was mainstream and now it's not? I don't think that adds up. It wasn't mainstream then either, that's what was notable about it.
93.
by sanderjd 2mo ago
I agree with you about being willing and unafraid of getting the depth in the concepts that matter. But that's also why I agree with you that the question of the server technology is the less important thing. I just think that leads to
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
It's just an immature ecosystem still, which means that everything has its drawbacks (IMO). I like Code way more than Codex. I like Pi a lot, and I expect it or something like it will eventually be the winner here for me, but I really
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
ha, a bit aggro, but I gave you an upvote because I think you aren't wrong.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
To me, your concluding sentence cuts the opposite direction. The server is not the most important thing, and each new kind of server that exists in the system is an appreciable increase in maintenance burden. To me, taken together, this is
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Thanks!
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Right, but what is the line of body fat percentage that you would consider "over fat", that's what I was curious about. I think it's implicit in your comment that it is maybe 20%.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
This seems like a very hyperbolic simplification of what economics minded people think and say.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Am I thinking about activation energy wrong? This seems like a description of a person with low activation energy to me?
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
This is also central in the book Atomic Habits.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
What is the line for "overfat" in this framework?
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
I'm way less skeptical of Roberts than the parent commenter appears to be, but IMO he is more of a policy person than an engineering person. I still find the podcast very useful, with this lens in mind. There are other podcasts that ge
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Honestly this seems like a pretty good efficiency multiplier for a distributed vs. centralized solution at that scale!
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Yeah I didn't mean to imply I was contradicting you, I meant my comment to expand on your point with my own value judgement that this kind of competition is actually quite a good thing.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Yes, but it's good for everyone that the strategy of attempting to commoditize the cash cow of a competitor exists.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
What I think is that something the "exponential scaling to AGI" thesis pays too little attention to is resource constraints, and that this is the answer to your question. What will happen if it becomes difficult to sustain the inv
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
I don't know about "unquestionably", but yes, I think this is a better path than the proprietary models.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Yeah in our system, those kinds of governments happen when there is a split in Congress (one party has a majority in the House, the other in the Senate) and/or when Congress and the presidency are held by opposite parties. And this is
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Yes that's the "this" I was referring to. I guess a day later I don't really agree with my own comment that this would be "great", but it would be a silver lining of that happening.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
What was the quote? For what it's worth, I do really think that Amodei believes in and cares about safety. But that is not the same as believing that he is entirely altruistic or above the influence of politics.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
What I would say is that to me the "Democrats look weak" thing is pretty silly. By design, if one party holds the presidency and both houses of Congress at once, they get to enact their preferred agenda (as long as it is deemed co
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
So, this might not be clear as an outsider to American politics, but to me this is not a "Republican vs. Democrat" thing. To me, it's about what kinds of Republicans and what kinds of Democrats are elected. To me, as an Ameri
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Yeah I think this is right. The best setup is when a true belief aligns with a competitive moat. I definitely believe that (to his credit!) Amodei is a true believer in safety. But I also think it was important for many of the deep pockets
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Does this really seem exceedingly clever and hard to foresee to you? To me, it seems like a pretty standard regulatory capture strategy. This doesn't even mean that they're wrong about the risks or that they're lying. But sur
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
This is not an argument that the Chinese system of government is better than the US system. Like I said, I'm more optimistic than a lot of people I know that the US will be able to pull out of the tailspin we've been in for the pa
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Yes, I've seen it! It's exciting, but I don't have enough information to say whether they are making "a real go of it". That is, it's unclear to me whether they have the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Sure, I don't have an argument with this. But I'm unconvinced that "therefore all models must be proprietary" follows at all naturally from it.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
It would be awesome to have actual open source (and open weights) models! I hope someone will make a real go of this at some point.
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by sanderjd 2mo ago
Actually this would be pretty great, because it would incentivize US labs to pursue the open weights strategy for the same reasons China is currently. I genuinely think that this is what the trends and incentives point toward: Competition t

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