saeranv

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Forecasting Election Results: Interactive Tutorial demonstrating Martingale(observablehq.com)
2 points by saeranv 6y ago|0 comments
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by saeranv 6y ago
Excellent point. That's a vector of attack I chose not to include since I wanted to just focus on free speech, but yes, that is a valid argument. Unfortunately it looks like my comment and yours is getting downvoted without any engagem
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by saeranv 6y ago
I know the HN crowd is going to make a number of posts making the argument that any moderation by social platforms is a slippery slope towards authoritarianism. I used to be one of these people, so understand the appeal of this argument to
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by saeranv 6y ago
Both 538 and the Economist forecasting models model errors as correlated - each state's vote share is not considered an independent event.
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by saeranv 6y ago
To me, this article highlights how much of a moving target weighting polls, and political prediction is. Shor here speaks about how Democrats get oversampled as both in 2016, and 2020 due to different levels of engagement and trust over the
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by saeranv 6y ago
Gelman's criticism is a little different. It's not that 538 has too much uncertainty, but the way they created the uncertainty. The way I understand it (and I'm an amateur so I could be wrong), the criticism is that the 538 t
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by saeranv 6y ago
But Biden is a moderate? Pretty much every presidential democratic nominee has been a moderate.
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by saeranv 6y ago
In a lot of small ways, Gelman (and the Economist team) engage in more transparency, and self-critique about forecasting practices relative to the 538 team. I don't mean to come off as a Nate Silver hater. My criticism is made with a l
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by saeranv 6y ago
This is why I think having a ground game is absolutely critical for winning elections - it provides this feedback loop to campaign officials to be able to modify their strategy based on what actual voters are thinking about. I've knock
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by saeranv 6y ago
Thus far it actually seems to be due different response rates between Republican versus Democratic voters. Democrats seem more likely to respond to pollsters. Of course pollsters already know this, so they weight the samples to reflect unde
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by saeranv 6y ago
For context, this blog post is by Andrew Gelman, a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University, and one of the people developing the presidential forecast model for The Economist. So he's not a pollster, but he
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The polls messed up(statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu)
143 points by saeranv 6y ago|237 comments
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by saeranv 6y ago
One interesting fact about Tadao Ando is that in order to really master architecture he made replicas of all the Corbusier buildings at some point. You can really tell the impact of Corb (especially, post-war Corb who in turn, was heavily i
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Andrew Gelman discusses potential errors in Economist Presidential Forecast(statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu)
4 points by saeranv 6y ago|0 comments
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by saeranv 6y ago
538 does rank pollsters based on "historical accuracy and methodology"[1], which are then weighted accordingly in their prediction model. And Nate and Elliot Morris (from the economist) have talked about how polling error tends to
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by saeranv 6y ago
Add me to the list of people who have the same question, but with a slightly different perspective. I understand the interpretation of matrix multiplication as a linear combinations, but I would also like to understand what is occurring geo
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by saeranv 6y ago
Agreed. I had an additional conflict in that I am a naturally sloppy person, and the worst part of doing matrix calcs by hand is that I'd often make a calculation error due to an inability to read my own handwriting, which would lead t
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by saeranv 6y ago
> So although there are a lot of examples and a lot of computation, like the text I had as an undergrad, this development keeps trying to direct the attention of students toward the understanding that they get from higher-level ideas. I
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by saeranv 6y ago
Good example. I know people frown on memorization, but personally I would say the following are useful to know deeply: - Log laws - Exponent laws - Derivative rules - Probability laws - Combinations/Permutations - Matrix algebra - more
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by saeranv 6y ago
What other SRS apps are people using here? I've used Anki, but I dislike the GUI interface (especially the way it weirdly formats copied text) and would prefer a Linux friendly, more text-based system. Any suggestions?
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by saeranv 6y ago
Am I correct that 3.10 comes after 3.9? How does that make sense, shouldn't it increase to 4.x? Is there an actual 3.1 (coming after 3.0) that this conflicts with?
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by saeranv 6y ago
Brilliant! I've always wondered the relationship between these two.
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by saeranv 6y ago
I was thinking of two more in this vein, but I'm not actually sure about the history of their derivation, so I'll pose them as questions: Was simulated annealing inspired by actual annealing (heating and slowly cooling metal/
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by saeranv 6y ago
I have the same experience. Anyone know why we cycle around like that? Melatonin and blue-light blocking glasses have helped a lot, but it still feels like my body wants to stay up at least 1 hour past the previous day.
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Blindsight: Short Film(rifters.com)
2 points by saeranv 6y ago|0 comments
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by saeranv 6y ago
Although... if I was building an election model, I would include candidate height as one of my predictors.
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by saeranv 6y ago
Hmm... I don't see it. Can you explain further?
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by saeranv 6y ago
As Nate Silver complains about often, there just aren't that many presidential elections since 1960, it's way to easy to build some overfitted model that seems accurate. As another comment mentions, we could all just build a nth-o
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by saeranv 6y ago
This is really fascinating. I just sent them an email to see if I could participate (diagnosed with ADHD 6 months ago at age 33, feeling pretty depressed that all the years of struggling/setbacks were to some degree unnecessary). May I
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by saeranv 6y ago
"Facebook is still working on creating its own oversight board, first described in April 2018 by CEO Mark Zuckerberg as an independent "Supreme Court" for content moderation decisions. Facebook's board won't launch

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