rwcarlsen

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91.
by rwcarlsen 6y ago
The fear and media has convinced people like you that crazy things are true like a 20% hospitalization rate. But check out the cdc: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidvi... . It looks
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Doctors and nurses dying is a negligible concern IMO. Yet again - there have been a few highly publicized cases of things like this, but at scale it is just not something that happens at a non-negligible frequency. I have multiple family
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
To me, beyond what it is capable of handling - means that the system gets damaged - not the people that it is treating. What you described is what I would call "beyond it's peaking capacity for treating patients". Not a gen
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Comments level getting to deep - trying to reply to a sibling. But 1% of planes crashing kills more evenly across demographics. The 1% here are almost exclusively the elderly and infirm who were contributing (directly anyway) almost nothi
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
It's surprising to me how difficult it is to have a discussion in the (cyberspace) open holding what I consider the internet-minority-viewpoint on covid. Even on HN (among other platforms), which is one of the places where I often go
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
I don't agree that it would necessarily tax health care systems "beyond what they're capable of handling" (for my definitions of those words). I also disagree that economies would be devastated if we had avoided all loc
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Yes - but when we only hear about, think about, and look at the extremes, it becomes too easy to let our thought-processes about the situation become (even subconsciously) skewed. It's too easy to forget that the constant barrage of s
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
I'm not - I just wanted to try to provide a more balanced view after the fashion that the community seems to be interested in.
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Think of a typical ag-focused rural town filled with mostly below-median incomes.
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Why was the most upvoted comment before mine anecdata? Obviously people find anecdata relevant or it wouldn't be so upvoted.
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Since top comments here are anecdata about how terrible covid is for a young person, just thought I'd share my experience. Everyone I know who has gotten covid - several neighbors (and their households), most of my wife's hometow
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Well - it's damage the world "chose" - via lockdowns, fear and hysteria, etc. When I talk about covid with people, I often notice difficulty to distinguish between covid the virus and covid the event (and associated things t
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
I use https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm for the U.S. and https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ has a bit of european data.
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
If by "core" - you mean to exclude the mantle, then yes, we don't know exactly how much radiogenic [1] heat generation there is. But if we are using the term "core" loosely here to refer to everything under the cru
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
But it would otherwise go "up" at a slower rate - so heat adding more slowly but over longer. Pumping heat up is effectively compressing this time horizon - resulting in a difference in rate of heat added. Now if that geothermal
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
And I'll add Idaho National Lab [5] to that list - particularly the MOOSE multiphysics finite element code [6] is a largish project with significant momentum/funding: [5] https://github.com/idaholab/ [6] htt
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Haven't seen you in meat space for a few years - good to see you're still alive and well in cyberspace!
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
I think a present-value calculation of the cost to buy+run+maintain would be a more accurate/useful metric (i.e. present value of cash flows https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Present_value#Net_present_valu... ) - altho
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
It looks like you replied to the wrong sibling comment.
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
I acknowledge that we are choosing between two bad alternatives here. I personally believe that we should trade all N hundred thousand lives for a normal school year for 56 million kids.
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Everybody has a cost above which they are not willing to pay to save someone's life. If you can't admit that, then there is nothing we have to discuss.
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
I agree. Perhaps it is because we are rapidly approaching the date when most schools around the U.S. begin opening back up (or not) after summer vacation. So this is on many people's minds and many decisions are being made about it a
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Yes - in some imaginary world it might be easier to close schools without adverse consequences. But we don't live in that world. We live in one where closing schools has lots of bad short and long term consequences. So acknowledging
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
But how many people? Should 10,000 kids lose school and all the problems that can avalanche into for the future to save 1 year of 1 life of one person who already has degrading health?
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Sure - but the point/principle still applies. Every day we confront unknown risks that we don't fully understand. But we just keep on living. I think we have enough data for people to evaluate their own personal risk and genera
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
You perhaps were being sarcastic, but there is truth in the statement. And while it is unpleasant, I think it is an aspect of this pandemic that is worth considering - not necessarily in an of itself, but perhaps as a way to begin discussi
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
I've personally heard from several tens of parents that they are primarily worried about the economic and social affects of all these so-called safety measures governments and communities are taking. Just because it's easy to mea
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
This is a prototype for the upper (second) stage of spacex's next-gen rocket [1] they are developing that uses their new full-flow staged combustion raptor engine [2]. This is the ship they plan to use for upcoming mars, moon, etc. mi
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
My anecdotal experience from discussing these issues with people of many demographics, political pursuations, etc. is that there is a great deal of animosity from people that were more heavily hit by the lockdowns, rules, etc. imposed by th
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by rwcarlsen 6y ago
Statistically, you're almost certainly not going to die of covid (or even be unusually sick for that matter). But you are guaranteed to be lonely if you don't get out there.

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