repsilat

13 ms·

121.
by repsilat 5y ago
Professional sports betters absolutely think in probabilistic terms -- "I think there's a 25% chance we'll win, the market thinks there's a 20% chance we'll win" etc. Kelly bet sizing absolutely makes sense, th
122.
by repsilat 5y ago
If you paired it with a "long everything" strategy (to reduce risk or whatever -- fewer eggs in this basket) the net strategy is something like "buy everything except yesterday's top performer", which can be done qu
123.
by repsilat 5y ago
As I read it, the strategy never goes long -- it's always simply short one ETF. The bad cases look like "one sector consistently outperforms", or "leading sectors have bull runs of consecutive days before losing steam&qu
124.
by repsilat 5y ago
I think that "rising tide" usually refers to everyone getting more food and bigger televisions, and it even being good for farmers and factory workers. In this case, though, haircuts get comparatively more expensive. Good for th
125.
by repsilat 5y ago
I don't think Amazon's decision to raise wages was pure microeconomic pressure. Single market participants don't need to get their policies out of a textbook, and textbook responses don't get as much news coverage. High
126.
by repsilat 5y ago
Is this "Baumol's Cost Disease"? Productivity goes up at Amazon, wages go up at Amazon, wages go up elsewhere so they can attract workers, and prices for consumers go up. Good marketing, but a bad outcome once you've rea
127.
by repsilat 5y ago
I meant increases in offered/negotiated salary. A marginal dollar of salary gets taxed the same way as a marginal dollar of vesting shares, so discounting one in the offer because of taxes makes sense if you discount the other in the s
128.
by repsilat 5y ago
True enough, provided you also apply a 40% discount to marginal salary increases.
129.
by repsilat 5y ago
Yeah, it reads that way to me -- this post was a public leak, not just criticising one founder but also implicitly repudiating the culture and governing processes of the forum. If the forum and trust in the forum being a private space are i
130.
by repsilat 5y ago
Risk (well, "variance") increases the value of optionality. Assume that there is a job market with lots of jobs. Each will hire you for your market-rate total compensation, no stock cliffs, no job-seeking costs. Spherical cow. Say
131.
by repsilat 5y ago
For public companies you should value stock grants above their face value, because of the optionality: If the price goes down you can quit and get another job, if it goes up you get a raise. And stocks tend to go up, so 4-year grants have
132.
by repsilat 5y ago
See "Four Candles" https://youtu.be/OCbvCRkl_4U
133.
by repsilat 5y ago
Whoops, corrected, thanks.
134.
by repsilat 5y ago
> What this article is saying is that trees form a polyphyletic group. This example seems reasonable in that way because there isn't some parallel definition of "tree". A layman, on hearing that (according to evolutionar
135.
by repsilat 5y ago
Google tells me that Uber takes a 25% cut for human-driven rides. So a rider's fare is 3:1 driver to Uber. If (just to make the math easy) you need to pay a robot a third of what you need to pay a human, I wonder whether the negotiatio
136.
by repsilat 5y ago
> allow for formulas to contain just a lambda and then reference that lambda from another cell as a cell reference My pet project from a couple of years ago[1] had cells-as-functions. I think it works really well. I also think names ar
137.
by repsilat 6y ago
One thing that getInstancesIds() might mean is "get the (multiple) ids for each of multiple instances". I don't know why an instance would have more than one id, probably more plausible with different nouns, but a similarly
138.
by repsilat 6y ago
> #1 is also just speculation. Because at the end of the day, you are risking $X to make $Y. You are placing a bet that tomorrow, some other people will come to value this stock (perhaps based on earnings) higher than you do today. Som
139.
by repsilat 6y ago
I like to think of the valuations as lower-bounds. There are people out there who will pay for discounted income streams, and they put a pretty good floor on prices. There are people out there who will pay for book value when prices drop to
140.
by repsilat 6y ago
Another helpful angle is to consider things that aren't Lindylike. People for example -- we expect older people to die sooner than younger ones, not later. And radioactive nuclei -- we expect their ages to be irrelevant to their expe
141.
by repsilat 6y ago
> could've given every person in the country a million dollars each That'd be $329 trillion[1], which is on the order of 100x what we spent. 1: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%241+million%2Fperson+
142.
by repsilat 6y ago
> I do have a hard time trusting that an affirmative answer to these questions isn't accompanied by some level of value judgement Sure, I'll grant "value judgement", and I don't have much of a problem with it.
143.
by repsilat 6y ago
> the question reduces to something like "is society entitled to the brain cycles of particularly smart people?". No, it doesn't. A conclusion that something is a drag on society is not necessarily (and frequently not )
144.
by repsilat 6y ago
I mostly just figured it was plausible-looking. The axiom-scheme could be "(X && !X) -> Y" for any expressions X and Y. Basically a partial definition of logical implication. The expression LHS->RHS is true when LHS
145.
by repsilat 6y ago
Not at all standard I'm afraid. "Modus ponens" is a common term to describe inferring B from A->B and A, but that's about as far as I'd be willing to say it resembles any common notation for formal logic.
146.
by repsilat 6y ago
A more traditional argument might look something like Axiom 1: ((1=0 && 1!=0) -> Pope(Russell) Proposed axiom 2: (1=0 && 1!=0) 1&2 modus ponens: Pope(Russell)
147.
by repsilat 6y ago
3% SpaceX, 47% TSLA. Not exactly a pure bet, but I guess you could short some of the others? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/bptrx/holdings/
148.
by repsilat 6y ago
For some context, this is roughly - One tenth of Apple, - One seventh of Google, - (Joke entry: 2/7 Teslas), - More than half a Walmart, - Just under one Netflix, - A SalesForce, - A Pfizer, - Nearly 2 IBMs (Makes sense to me), - 2.7 G
149.
by repsilat 6y ago
I've heard that for a lot of cooking it doesn't matter, and for some it matters a lot. A large category where it matters a lot (I've heard) is baking. If you're making a soup or a sauce or some mashed potatoes, most of y
150.
by repsilat 6y ago
You can also put the compute and the data on land, and do routing as a service. The decision bandwidth (i.e., ideal heading/route) is miniscule.

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