reducesuffering

7 ms·

61.
by reducesuffering 2mo ago
> HN is where I expect to read expert comments on these topics, has this style of conversation moved elsewhere? For people who have been paying attention to accurate predictions leading to our present state of the world, HN has collectiv
62.
by reducesuffering 2mo ago
You can not prepare or brace yourself mentally any more than you can a terminal cancer diagnosis. An RSI foom right now means an unaligned superintelligence will disregard us in pursuit of its goals. We would be ants in the way of a data ce
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
These companies are in a furious race to AGI. They even know that doing so is extremely risky to all of our lives. The incentives are to do so, the leaders and employees are writing letters begging to regulate them on an even global field
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
People have been warning about the incentives and problems of an AGI race for over a decade now.
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
I mean wondering about the logical extrapolation of where these capabilities go is table stakes for these discussions. It's surprising how little some people here have thought of the second and third-order effects... https:/&#x2F
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
RSI will be models better than Fable running faster than this, you won't even need a human in the loop to figure out what to do. The high level goal will be accomplished better than the human in an instant
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
I hold no disdain. I am frustrated that people like you further risk the lives of everyone around us. 1,000+ frontier employees think we're in danger. Amodei gives 25% chance things go really really bad, Geoff Hinton 50%, Yoshua Bengio
68.
by reducesuffering 2mo ago
Altman: "Development of superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity." Meaning lights out for everyone. Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, give 50% and 20% we face extincti
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
They won't admit they're wrong for a long time, because denial in the face of an abhorrently scary future is very instinctual. There are people still fighting against evidence of climate change which is less severe...
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
Highly recommend reading extra concerning details about it here: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/more-on-an-internal-openai-mod...
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Pacing the frontier(pacingthefrontier.com)
151 points by reducesuffering 2mo ago|204 comments
72.
by reducesuffering 2mo ago
> No one's saying abortion should be possible at 8 months. Yes people do, what? It's legal in like at least 8 US states
73.
by reducesuffering 2mo ago
If anything that should warrant more attention...
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
Why does this earthquake, of similar magnitude, get so much more attention compared to the recent Venezuelan earthquake last month that was 100x more devastating? There was no commentary on HN about it. https://en.wikipedia.org&#
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
Which have been very prescient about where we're currently at, unlike the many trivial HN comments, like yours.
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
"I believe we should not consider AI safe. A critical event that may result in the extinction of Homo sapiens is possible" "The danger is that a few CEOs (everywhere in the world) without the required background and legitimac
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by reducesuffering 2mo ago
Current big picture reality is bad for comms unfortunately. As another commenter quoted, "You can put lipstick on a pig, it'll still be a pig". Cuban Missile Crisis wasn't very calm. Do you think a company this well-cap
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
> now not so much OpenAI Huggingface breach begs to differ
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
> It turns out relentless proactivity is the defining trait of this new generation of Mythos-class models. If you set them a goal and give them a way to get there, even inadvertently, they will figure it out. Wow, whoever could have pred
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
Lesswrong / “doomers” have been sounding the alarm on this for over a decade. Sam Altman himself was familiar with the milieu and agreed “Development of superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued e
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
> As much as I'm skeptical of the apocalyptic alignment claims Why? Every data point to the present has vindicated the trajectory towards “apocalypse”. Meanwhile, the skeptics and optimists hit failed prediction after failed predict
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
Jacobian Conjecture, Jamming critical exponent proof, Erdős Unit Distance Problem, IMO 2026 perfect score, AlphaFold Need I go on?
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
> There's only so many GPUs and a lot of them are devoted to patching flaws. Might want to look at Nvidia and TSM production and revenue value trajectories. Also the algorithmic improvements currently being found along with models t
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
> This was a long-horizon, unsupervised task burning millions of tokens. As if the immediate future wasn't billions of these tasks... Many successfully improving their own capabilities
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
The goalposts will keep moving for these denialists until morale improves...
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
Par for the course. Existential-risk advocates have been repeatedly vindicated that AGI development is unable to anticipate and align the models, they barely have any mechanistic interpretability of what is going on inside the models. The e
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
Lol even few people here are grappling with the exponential unfolding before us. There are so few deeply thought through takes of where we’re going and why there are extremely concerning issues.
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
> Hassabis is a genius. He is way, way smarter than me Then maybe start listening...
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
Yes, this is the crux of the idiocy of AGI development. All the labs admit they don't have any real mechanistic interpretability, they don't really have any plan for what to do, except "we think the smart AI will figure it ou
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by reducesuffering 3mo ago
Reminder that while there are many naysayers who have been on the wrong side of AGI development progress the last decade… There are two $1T companies who are all-in on RSI internally right now. They are supported by $20T of market cap plowi

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