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Reminder that while there are many naysayers who have been on the wrong side of AGI development progress the last decade… There are two $1T companies who are a

Reminder that while there are many naysayers who have been on the wrong side of AGI development progress the last decade… There are two $1T companies who are all-in on RSI internally right now. They are supported by $20T of market cap plowing R&D into their efforts. You can think it’s dumb money at your own peril, however the market rewards intelligent allocation…

baq 3mo ago
The market can also be quick and brutal to punish mistakes, especially when leverage is high. We can be in 1998, but we can be in 1995; you stand to make a ton of money if you know which one we’re in
goatlover 3mo ago
How do the markets know it's intelligent allocation before RSI is actually a thing? What makes those companies immune to failure?
- not-a-llm 3mo ago
  them having an actual product with huge demand makes them immune Just like Tesla was immune from all the naysayers which were saying its a highly unprofitable company which will 100% go bankrupt because its economics dont make any sense, and they lost huge amounts of money shorting the stock
  - yorwba 3mo ago
    Tesla is profitable, but income per share has been very low relative to share price. People who were short Tesla weren't necessarily betting on a bankruptcy, just that shareholders wouldn't put up with the low ROI for much longer. And depending on exactly when they shorted it, they might've actually made a profit. In contrast, AI companies that are actually unprofitable are dependent on continuously raising additional money to sustain their operations, so a sudden drop in market confidence could become a self-fulfilling prophecy as it makes it more difficult to raise money which makes the business more risky which decreases market confidence in a downward spiral. An actual product with huge demand is not enough to avert bankruptcy, you also need to serve that demand profitably (like Tesla does).
mbgerring 3mo ago
“The market rewards intelligent allocation” is such a straightforwardly false statement that I can’t believe anyone still says this with a straight face. The last ten years of the US economy have just been scam after scam after scam, and people just keep saying this.
- blitzar 3mo ago
  NFTs were worth more than $1 trillion so we know that they were "better" than the Ai efforts of today because “The market rewards intelligent allocation”
  - not-a-llm 3mo ago
    they never were if I sell 1 token at $1 and there are a trillion of them minted, that does not make a $1T market cap but if you want to prove a point against AI with fake data, sure
    - blitzar 3mo ago
      If I sell 1 token at $139.14 and 13.17 billion of them minted, that makes a $1.8T market cap. Space data centres are the panicle of intelligent allocation.

baq 3mo ago

The market can also be quick and brutal to punish mistakes, especially when leverage is high. We can be in 1998, but we can be in 1995; you stand to make a ton of money if you know which one we’re in

goatlover 3mo ago

How do the markets know it's intelligent allocation before RSI is actually a thing? What makes those companies immune to failure?

not-a-llm 3mo ago
them having an actual product with huge demand makes them immune Just like Tesla was immune from all the naysayers which were saying its a highly unprofitable company which will 100% go bankrupt because its economics dont make any sense, and they lost huge amounts of money shorting the stock
- yorwba 3mo ago
  Tesla is profitable, but income per share has been very low relative to share price. People who were short Tesla weren't necessarily betting on a bankruptcy, just that shareholders wouldn't put up with the low ROI for much longer. And depending on exactly when they shorted it, they might've actually made a profit. In contrast, AI companies that are actually unprofitable are dependent on continuously raising additional money to sustain their operations, so a sudden drop in market confidence could become a self-fulfilling prophecy as it makes it more difficult to raise money which makes the business more risky which decreases market confidence in a downward spiral. An actual product with huge demand is not enough to avert bankruptcy, you also need to serve that demand profitably (like Tesla does).

mbgerring 3mo ago

“The market rewards intelligent allocation” is such a straightforwardly false statement that I can’t believe anyone still says this with a straight face. The last ten years of the US economy have just been scam after scam after scam, and people just keep saying this.

blitzar 3mo ago
NFTs were worth more than $1 trillion so we know that they were "better" than the Ai efforts of today because “The market rewards intelligent allocation”
- not-a-llm 3mo ago
  they never were if I sell 1 token at $1 and there are a trillion of them minted, that does not make a $1T market cap but if you want to prove a point against AI with fake data, sure
  - blitzar 3mo ago
    If I sell 1 token at $139.14 and 13.17 billion of them minted, that makes a $1.8T market cap. Space data centres are the panicle of intelligent allocation.