qwtel

19 ms·

121.
by qwtel 10y ago
There's a difference between binary and open-ended predictions. "Will the iPhone be a commercial success?" is easier than "How many iPhones will be sold?". It's the later that matters when you are directly invo
122.
by qwtel 10y ago
Sorry for the noob question, but isn't there always sun somewhere on the planet? Are electricity grids not globally connected, or would it be lost in transmission?
123.
by qwtel 10y ago
I'd be curious to see how something like private defense agencies [1] would work out in practice. [1]: http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Libertarian/Machinery_of_Freed...
124.
by qwtel 10y ago
maybe there muscles are just weaker? maybe there muscles are weaker because they are depressed, or they are depressed because their muscles are weak
125.
by qwtel 11y ago
I'll just use this from now on
126.
by qwtel 11y ago
> [intent was not] suggest an actual bet
127.
by qwtel 11y ago
The bet was a rhetorical device intended to show the impossibility of having definitive views about the future while refusing to accept bets of the form 1 : inf. I appreciate the offer though ;)
128.
by qwtel 11y ago
Generally, there has to be some condition on which to judge the success of a project.
129.
by qwtel 11y ago
Yes, I have to admit it's vague. Price below $1 or not traded at all, would be a better condition. Maybe add some trade volume requirements as well.
130.
by qwtel 11y ago
If you are sure that the Ethereum project will fail, I'd be happy to take on bets 1 : infinity. I pay you $1 if the project is no longer around, say 10 years from now, you pay me everything you have otherwise. It would only be rational
131.
by qwtel 11y ago
> an investment system for early adopters to exploit late adopter buyers I invite you to "exploit" late adopters as well by investing in some project. it will cure you of this notion that uncertainty doesn't exist.
132.
by qwtel 11y ago
You raise good points. I think one of the reasons why the conversations surrounding cryptocurrencies are disproportionally emotional is that everybody is long something and inevitably biased because of it. Also, I agree that comparing BTC a
133.
by qwtel 11y ago
I'd say this is corporate handling bitcoin: http://chain.com/
134.
by qwtel 11y ago
The 'emperor has no close situation' with all blockchain technology is that they simply don't scale to any real-world capacity. What sets ethereum apart in that respect, is that they at least have a plan about how to solve it
135.
by qwtel 11y ago
I think survivorship bias is the central flaw in "why aren't we dead by now". If survival depends on an event not occurring, I'd be extra careful in estimating its odds.
136.
by qwtel 11y ago
I really don't like the 1% designation. According to [1], if you have an annual income of $55,000 or above (after tax) in the U.S. you are among the 1% globally. I like the idea of equality and all, but it feels like, when people talk
137.
by qwtel 11y ago
Actually, I'd like to know why.
138.
by qwtel 11y ago
In case anybody is interested, this is how you would do this in clojure: (println (some-> article :author :address :city upper-case))
139.
by qwtel 11y ago
Having just doubled my workout routine I'm quite impressed how working out changes the brain and body.
140.
by qwtel 11y ago
That's basically a sample size of n=5 from which you inferred that "has macros" and "is popular" are causally linked, which should get you expelled from every statistics department in the world ;) My guess is that v
141.
by qwtel 11y ago
Via negativa: Avoid what is most likely bad (food processed by industry, sodas, excess sugar, excess salt, trans fat and food blogs). Beyond that there isn't too much you can do.
142.
by qwtel 11y ago
You could almost think of it as an entry ticket ;) I'd agree that the price of the ticket varies greatly by age, education, etc., though.
143.
by qwtel 11y ago
> But the profit made on the few clueless ones keeps the bullshit economy going You make it sound like the clueless ones are always the same people though. I certainly paid for my share of BS (and guilt-tripped my parents into paying bef
144.
by qwtel 11y ago
> Now this is cheap populism I can get behind! This is the lowest ranked comment right now, but I think it is great, and I want to rephrase it in a way that maybe more people can appreciate it (and hopefully doesn't get me downvoted
145.
by qwtel 11y ago
https://hn.algolia.com/?query=google&sort=byDate&prefix&page...
146.
by qwtel 11y ago
I just want to throw in the concept of "voter apathy". In my opinion it's why all voting systems, liquid or not, are doomed to fail (or at least be very inefficient). Even delegating one's vote to a relevant expert would
147.
by qwtel 11y ago
Just let the browser do what "applications" did in the 90s, while not breaking the stuff that browsers did in the 90s.
148.
by qwtel 11y ago
this goes to show that negativity is contingent, not that the author's points are invalid.
149.
by qwtel 11y ago
Bent Flyvbjerg studies these "megaprojects" and offers various explanations why a) they are being conducted in the first place despite the fact that b) they are usually any combination of over budget, behind schedule or below expe
150.
by qwtel 11y ago
Any businessperson would estranged by the negative attitude towards making "the stuff that came out of SRI/Engelbart and PARC" available to millions if not billions of people, which, one could argue, is the more difficult par

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